Arthur McCallum

Sputnik 1 Russians launched Sputnik 1 on October 4, 1957 to start the space age. Americans were jolted out of their confident stupor that they were ahead of Soviet Union in technology race. Russians were first to put an animal, a man and a woman in space. America scrambled to respond and put its first Satellite Explorer 1 in January 1958. This also lead to America mobilizing and forming NASA in 1958 and President Kennedy committing to put a man on the moon by the end of decade of sixties. America mobilized and overtook Russia in space and put a man on the moon in 1969. One can draw a direct line from there to Hart-Celler Immigration Act of 1965 that overhauled immigration policy. It started to prioritize immigration based qualifications, especially scientific qualifications, over the national origin. This open floodgates of immigration from India, which was allowed only a quota of 50 per year till then. It all neatly coincided with India starting to produce a large number of engineers at newly formed IITs. These Engineers had no prospect of employment and hence immigrated to America. Having graduated from IIT Bombay in the spring of 1967, I arrived with the first wave that summer. It has been nearly sixty years and now there are close to 5 million Indian Americans. They are about 1.5% of the population but they are over 15% of engineers, doctors, professors, Wall Street professionals etc. They have really excelled at high-tech entrepreneurship where they are a part of over 25% of all startups. They have become CEOs of some of the most iconic corporations, including Microsoft, Google, IBM, Honeywell. One of the second generation Indian American is likely to become the next POTUS! I think Russians did a favor to America by delivering a swift kick to its behind in 1957. I think America is ready for one more kick in the behind to come out of its current stupor.

88

26 Comments

Mark Bigham, fantastic insight and critical for our national productivity and sovereignty. We launched the CONTINUUM of Innovation Capital to help address this massive gap. National sovereignty and global productivity will go to the nation that deploys the INTELLIGENT INFRASTRUCTURE enabling Industry 4.0. This requires aligning Innovation funds with Infrastructure funds, CONTINUUM of Innovation Capital. In 1960, investors did not know what Venture Capital was; today, few know about the Continuum of Capital. This is critical to compete with China's Military-Civil-Fusion and Belt and Road Initiative.  https://lnkd.in/geVHueFz Infrastructure investors and the Federal Infrastructure Bank are mobilizing $billions in private capital to underwrite Intelligent Infrastructure Economic Zones. https://lnkd.in/gWnJD877 The CONTINUUM of Innovation Capital will allow Americans ownership in the renewal of U. S. infrastructure and the economy and strengthening our National Security.  Autonomy Institute WHAT IS AUTONOMY PRIME: https://lnkd.in/gkAtJemv

2

Three Insights on Ukraine's Kursk Offensive from Yesterday's Webinar with Mathieu Boulègue and Samantha de Bendern: 1. As Samantha pointed out, the fact that the U.S. did not prevent Ukraine from carrying out its offensive on Russian soil, coupled with the U.S. officials' lack of reaction, signals a shift in U.S. policy to a more hawkish one. 2. Ukraine is likely to try to hold onto the territory gained during the incursion. The strategic rationale is clear: to force Russia to divert troops from other fronts and potentially use this territory as a bargaining chip in future negotiations. 3. The success of the current incursion is likely to drive Ukraine to carry out more such offensives in the foreseeable future. The opening of a "new front" in the war allows Ukraine to exploit Russia’s dwindling forces more effectively, increasing pressure on Russia's military and potentially forcing them to abandon plans for new offensives. Watch the full Webinar here:

1

"Deceit, Dread, and Disbelief: The Story of How Ukraine Lost Its Nuclear Arsenal Never-before-released archival files reveal Washington’s error in cudgeling Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons despite the risk of a Russian invasion." by George Bogden October 27, 2023 A very insightful piece, with lots of evidence of deeply disappointing actions for a Ukrainian like me, as well as somewhat surprisingly assuaging facts (you will guess who gets the disappointment and who the assuaging part). Thank you, George E. Bogden, J.D., D.Phil., for this extensive and important research and publication. And thank you, Christopher J O'Shea, for the recommendation! Full piece by the link below. I strongly recommend reading it in full (note, there are four pages there). U.S. Department of State U.S. House of Representatives United States Senate

22

12 Comments

On the recommendation of friends, I listened to Alexander Dmitrievich Nechvolodov’s book *"From Ruin to Prosperity"*, dedicated to the state of Russia’s economy and monetary system in 1906. I was convinced of the demanding nature of the gold standard for the economies that rely on it and the need to "dilute" it to some extent to avoid hard landings in the case of ineffective governance. Nechvolodov proposed softening the rigidity of the gold standard by introducing silver as an additional monetary reserve, which, in his view, would provide greater flexibility and stability in Russia’s monetary system. This way, the system would be less punitive under poor economic management. One could interpret his position as follows: the strict gold standard "punishes" economies that do not maintain reasonable monetary and fiscal policies. In Nechvolodov’s view, Russia’s economic difficulties could have been mitigated or even avoided if his proposals had been implemented. The rigidity of the gold standard likely accelerated financial crises in the face of weak governance. Nechvolodov argued that introducing silver and tightening economic policies could have helped Russia avoid the harsh consequences that the gold standard imposed on its economic stability. The failure to implement these reforms may have left Russia vulnerable to the very economic "punishments" that Nechvolodov warned about. It would be fair to suggest that simply adding silver to the monetary system without changing the underlying monetary and economic policies could have potentially worsened the situation. Introducing silver, while it might provide some flexibility, would not have addressed the root problems of ineffective governance or poor policy decisions. Without reforms in monetary and economic management, adding silver could have lead to a continuation or even deepening of existing issues, essentially "going further into the same hole." The core issue that Nechvolodov highlights is the need for sound economic policies. Without such reforms, adding another metal to the reserve system could just be a temporary fix or even exacerbate the problem by masking deeper structural issues in the economy.

1

Cannot agree more. Incumbents are totally missing the action where tech startups define the new warfighting (technologies and TTPs). And the non obvious defence markets are much more ahead in engaging in this.

17

1 Comment

So here is a chat from some very knowledgable people that seem to be pro-Ukrainian, but understand in how much trouble Ukraine is. One thing that they have learned to realize is that the Russians are actually pretty good at fighting wars, both media wars and military wars. The Russians turn out to be excellent at disinformation, media propaganda, and political destablization. Which is why it was so *STUPID* for the US to try to destabilize Russia in the first place and why the US effort to push Euromaidan movement was has so much blowback. If you look at the agreements between the BRICS nations, China, Russia, and India, one basic agreement is "non-interference". You don't mess with our government, we don't mess with yours. So China is not going to overthrow Putin, and Russia is not going to overthrow Xi. The thing about the US is that once it starts trying to overthrow the Russia government or nearby governments (Ukraine) in ways that mess up Russian security interests, Russia will fight back, and they are kind of good at this thing. https://lnkd.in/gzCbRRTA

5

2 Comments

Russia-based Evil Corp, accused of stealing around $300M through nearly a decade of cyber-attacks, has been linked to the Russian state, with authorities now implicating Maksim Yakubets' father, Viktor, and other family members in laundering stolen funds. Supported by former FSB official Eduard Benderskiy, the group operated like a mafia, evading capture despite a $5M bounty. The UK’s National Crime Agency (NCA) has also uncovered links between Evil Corp and the ransomware group LockBit, signaling collaboration across cybercrime syndicates. Recent arrests in the UK are part of an ongoing international crackdown on these notorious cybercriminals. #EvilCorp #CyberCrime #LockBit #RussianHackers #NCA #Cybersecurity #Sanctions #FSB #InternationalOperation #CyberAttacks

2

As I mentioned before I am not a military guy, but a finance guy, and one reason I think the US/EU is headed for disaster is that the military people aren't talking to the finance people in the US where they clearly are in Russia and China. One *BIG* reason that Russia is winning the Russo-Ukrainian War is that Russia had very low debt and very low deficits. So in a crisis Putin can massively increase the size of the Russian military, and one reason he can do that is that Putin pays volunteers extremely well. Also I've heard that Putin has been ramping up production of weapons and people are getting paid very, very well working in an arms factory. And he can do that because he kept the pre-war deficits low. If you look at China's military-economic strategy its also to reduce spending, increase savings, build out capacity so that in a war, China can just outproduce the United States. Meanwhile, on the US side, people are looking at the weapons systems and not thinking about the financing. I happen to think that the US would be *more secure* by cutting the defense budget, because that will leave more cash available if something really goes bad. This might seem like "commie symp" talk except this is what China did in response to the Soviet Union. The big mistake that Russia and China made was that they assumed that because they were paying for the US military that the US would have the sense not to use the military against them. It was in 2014-2015 that they figured out that this was wrong, and around 2017, both Russia and China stopped buying new US Treasuries. China is maintaining a massive trade surplus with the US, but it's using that money in Africa because even if you put the money in Zambia and lose it all, it's better than financing defense spending against China. One of my thesis is that the inflation that the US had in the 2020's was a direct reason of China and Russia refusing to buy more US Treasuries. Once China and Russia refused to buy US Treasuries then when COVID hit, the Fed had to expand the balance sheet and you end up with inflation. But I haven't seen any defense analysis of the US/EU that contains these economic factors, and my cyncism is this is because a lot of these thinktanks are funded by US defense contractors, and if you actually looked at the problem, you would end up with policies that work against the interests of the defense contractors. The defense contractors want current contracts. If you advocate cutting back on current military spending and then ramping up in a crisis, then 1) they don't get money if there is a peace and 2) if there is a war who knows who gets the contracts. Derek Grossman Ian Bremmer Emily Parker

17

27 Comments

How much influence does Russian state media have on the social news ecosystem, and how does that influence play out? That's the question answered in a remarkable analysis by academics at Texas A&M and George Washington University. "Does Russian Propaganda Lead or Follow? Topic Coverage, User Engagement, and RT and Sputnik’s Agenda Influence on US Media" The analysis leverages millions of stories and *billions* of news engagements drawn from NewsWhip's system. The results show just how far and wide Kremlin narratives travel, particularly on areas of Russian foreign policy interest. You can access the article here: https://lnkd.in/enxy89xd One finding I particularly liked: "For scholars, NewsWhip's online news data dramatically exceeds alternatives."

36

3 Comments

In 2023, every 41 dollars out of 100 of Ukraine's export revenue in services was IT! Innovation in the services sector, especially in IT, is key to Ukraine's economic revival. Ukraine's IT industry has grown 17 times in 14 years, generating more than $6.7 billion in export revenue. This shows the industry's great potential in the face of global challenges, despite a temporary dip in 2023. In other words, every 41 dollars out of 100 export revenues of services is IT. Ukrainian IT exports have a significant share in the global market, especially in countries with high demand for services, such as the United States ($2.7 billion), Malta ($567 million), the United Kingdom ($535 million), Cyprus ($362 million), and Israel ($293 million). This demonstrates the competitiveness and high quality of Ukrainian IT services. The sector faces challenges related to the war, but continues to show potential for growth due to its significant intellectual capital, competitiveness, and quality of development. A stable tax environment and strengthening of educational training in the computer field are important for further progress. Investments in IT and the development of the services sector will not only contribute to Ukraine's economic growth, but will also strengthen its position on the international stage as an important player in the global IT industry.

77

AI Reading for Wednesday April 17! AI safety, AI politics, AI economics. https://lnkd.in/enCinev3 MLCommons releases an AI safety benchmark. - IEEE Spectrum Marc Andreessen is red-pilled and big mad about Google and safety, his whole feed is something - Twitter Will AI demand really overwhelm our electrical grids? - FT Or do we just need to make the right investments? - Heatmap News GenAI risks and challenges for the economy - EY Economists don't actually know what AI will do, and some economists who think AI is going to be just great say it's going to eliminate jobs and require policy responses. - TIME AI-driven airline-style pricing is everywhere, with surge pricing, junk fees, and advertising low headline prices while gouging you on the necessary add-ons. - The Atlantic AI is seen as sustaining for large companies like big banks, hard for upstarts to keep up. - Fortune How GitHub Copilot is changing software development. - Bloomberg "Please read this CVE and write code for an exploit." - The Reg AI tools cut parts of Intel's chip design process from weeks to minutes. An example of singularity dynamics, the better the tech gets the faster it improves itself. - Tom's Hardware Killer robots, kamikaze drones and AIs change war significantly from a game theory perspective and are worth discussing from an arms control treaty standpoint. - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists If you worked on-site in NY and moved to remote work in a low cost of living state, NY is using AI to hunt you down and hit you up for state income tax. - Business Insider Mistral in talks to raise at $5b valuation. - The Information Logitech adds an AI key and prompt-building tool. - The Reg Gimmickry or something people can actually use? There are template-based prompt generators, and AIs to help build prompts. At risk of stating the obvious, a terrific use of AI is to ask it to automate a frequent task with Windows AutoHotKey, or the Mac's built-in Automator app, or a script using zsh or Python or Power Automate or PowerShell or Zapier-like services. - Geeky Gadgets Or, get your own AI-powered exoskeleton to elude killer robots. - New Atlas Gardening with AI: software can recognize plants, make recommendations. Robot help is surely coming, and Merlin is Shazam for birds. - TechRadar Menteebot emerges from stealth with a new humanoid robot. - Engadget A robot roundup. - Yahoo News Adobe adds gen-AI tools to Premiere video editing tools, including object deletion and addition , generative extend, eventual support for 3rd-party models like Pika, Runway, and Sora. - YouTube As an alternative, use DaVinci if you don't want to pay Adobe subscriptions. - Creative Bloq Google might give you access to Gemini in the Chrome address bar. - TechRadar Researcher says he will beat hallucinations by training and calibrating uncertainty-aware LLMs. - Fortune

4

2 Comments

"Russia’s influence in its immediate neighborhood has been diminishing, too. The bulk of non-Russians in the former Soviet borderlands want less and less to do with their former overlord and certainly do not want to be reabsorbed by it. Armenians are embittered, Kazakhs are wary, and Belarusians are trapped and unhappy about it. Eurasianism and Slavophilism are mostly dead letters: the overwhelming majority of the world’s non-Russian Slavs joined or are clamoring to join the European Union and NATO. Without Russia menacing its European neighbors, NATO’s reason for being becomes uncertain. But that means Russia could break NATO only by developing into a durable rule-of-law state, precisely what Putin resists with all his being. Russia’s basic grand strategy appears simple: vastly overinvest in the military, roguish capabilities, and the secret police, and try to subvert the West. No matter how dire its strategic position gets, and it is often dire, Russia can muddle through, as long as the West weakens, too. Peace comes through strength, combined with skillful diplomacy. The United States must maintain concerted pressure on Russia while also offering incentives for Moscow to retrench. That means creating leverage through next-generation military tools but also pursuing negotiations in close cooperation with U.S. allies and partners and aided by so-called Track II exchanges among influential but nongovernmental figures." https://lnkd.in/gxi_VgbS

1

1 Comment

Our response to foreign (Russian, Chinese, …) efforts to destabilize our economy is too weak. Most people are still dismissing sabotage and espionage as something only happening on TV. Meanwhile Russian ships make detailed maps of our seabed, ready to cut fiber, power cables or gas supply. And they are infiltrating our companies, also pressuring people with links to their regime (blackmailing them) to commit acts of sabotage and espionage at the places where they work, like our universities, research centers, companies, government etc. I would hate to say in a few years “told you so”… Better safe and vigilant than sorry. This is a shared responsibility! Article on FT requires a subscription: West grapples with response to Russian sabotage attempts https://on.ft.com/4bJL7KY #cyberresiliance #cybersecurity #vigilence

9

On this October 25, Kazakhstan’s Republic Day, the country is powering up, making headlines and getting added to bucket travel lists. In a highly anticipated referendum earlier this month, an overwhelming majority of Kazakh voters chose to approve the construction on a new nuclear power plant in the country. This is a positive step to assuring that #Kazakhstan has the energy it needs for future growth and development. In the news, a Kazakh fintech giant, now listed on the Nasdaq, Kaspi.kz grabbed international press coverage with a roller coaster ride of headlines – first with the low of a controversial stock plunge and then with the high of a billion dollar acquisition of the majority of stake at Hepsiburada, a leading e-commerce platform in Turkey. Kaspi.kz will continue to be one to watch in the coming year as it expands its value and reach.  International interest in Kazakhstan is not isolated to the press, though, but also reflected in events connecting the country to other regions. Recently, Milan had a well-attended business forum focused on connecting Italy with Kazakhstan. Next Monday, New York City will host “Kazakhstan Finance Day”, an occasion that will gather together high-profile names in the finance industry. Kazakhs may need to plan for an influx of visitors to their vast and varied land by next Republic Day.  Renowned travel guide “Lonely Planet” has named Kazakhstan among the top thirty countries to visit in 2025. It’s heartening to think more people may get introduced to the rugged beauty of our steppes and mountains and the energetic buzz of our sophisticated cities.  Thirty-four years ago today, Kazakhstan drew on its long and culturally-rich past and looked towards an unknown but hope-filled future as it declared sovereignty, officially separating from the Soviet Union. Over three decades later, Kazakhstan and its friends throughout the world can be proud of the progress, the resources, the capability and the development of this proud and storied land.  Happy Republic Day, everyone❣️🇰🇿

65

4 Comments

A Demonstration of Power, Not an #Invasion: Revisiting the Russian Entry into #Ukraine The events surrounding Russia’s actions in Ukraine have been consistently mischaracterized by #Western narratives. It was not an invasion in the conventional sense, but a demonstration of power—a calculated move to secure geopolitical stability and enforce agreements that had long been ignored. Both sides were on the verge of signing the #IstanbulAgreement, which effectively enforced the principles of the Minsk I and Minsk II accords. These agreements, initially brokered by the #NormandyGroup, were designed to establish a framework for #peace and autonomy in eastern Ukraine. However, the #West reneged on its commitments, leaving #Russia with few options. Protecting the #Donbas: A Necessary Intervention! The narrative largely omitted in Western media is the imminent threat posed to the Donbas region. Ukrainian forces, bolstered by #NATO-trained troops numbering 200,000, were reportedly preparing a large-scale assault on the region. This would have resulted in significant loss of life and the displacement of ethnic Russians in the area—many of whom already faced systemic persecution. Russia’s entry into the Donbas was, in this view, a protective intervention to prevent what could have been a #humanitarian catastrophe. A Strategic Red Line: NATO’s Expansion The second factor driving Russia’s actions was the prevention of NATO’s expansion to its doorstep. The deployment of NATO #missiles near Russia’s borders—only 500 kilometers from Moscow—would have been an existential threat. To put this into perspective, imagine the deployment of missile systems in Milan, directly threatening Rome. Such a scenario would be unacceptable to #Italy, just as NATO’s encroachment was unacceptable to Russia. The Bigger Picture: A #War on Russia or Something More? The ongoing #conflict has never been solely about Ukraine. The narrative of defending #democracy and supporting the Ukrainian people, while emotionally compelling, obscures a broader strategy. This conflict appears to be part of a larger attempt to weaken Russia, dismantle its sovereignty, and exploit its vast #natural resources. The ultimate goal? To destabilize and encircle #China, the last remaining rival to Western #hegemony. Russia’s resistance, therefore, was not just about protecting its territorial integrity but about confronting a master plan designed to redraw the global balance of #power. This is not a war for Ukraine—it is a geopolitical chess game, with devastating consequences for all involved. The simplistic narratives presented by Western #media fail to address the underlying complexities of this conflict. The actions taken by Russia were not unprovoked acts of aggression but strategic responses to existential threats and broken agreements. Recognizing this broader context is essential to understanding the motivations behind this geopolitical struggle and the wider implications for the global order.

131

48 Comments

Russian Influence Networks Target French Elections (Source: Recorded Future) During the French elections held from June 30, 2024, to July 7, 2024, foreign malign influence operations linked to Russia were identified but ultimately had a negligible impact on public opinion and voter behavior. The Russia-linked Doppelgänger network played a prominent role by targeting French audiences with pro-Russian content through cloned websites and social media bots. This network focused on impersonating French media organizations and amplifying their content on social media using a vast number of inauthentic accounts engaged in automated coordinated inauthentic behavior (CIB). Despite these extensive activities, authentic engagement with Doppelgänger's content remained low, and its overall impact was minimal. The CopyCop network, another Russia-linked influence operation, also targeted French audiences, albeit on a smaller scale compared to Doppelgänger. CopyCop utilized large language models (LLMs) to promote pro-Russian narratives, specifically criticizing President Macron and attempting to dissuade continued European support for Ukraine. Notably, CopyCop created an inauthentic website impersonating the presidential coalition “Ensemble Pour La République,” falsely promising voters a 100€ reward, likely in an effort to discredit Macron and his Renaissance party. This tactic mirrored a previous operation in March 2024, which involved impersonating French military recruitment websites. Historically, CopyCop has maintained a French-language presence on inauthentic websites such as infoindependants[.]fr and mediaalternatif[.]fr, used to disseminate deepfakes targeting the Macron administration and publish AI-generated content plagiarized from French media. Recently, CopyCop launched two new French-language websites, veritecachee[.]fr and franceenccolere[.]fr, continuing to publish plagiarized and weaponized content, and they are likely to be used for deepfakes targeting the Macron administration. The short period between the announcement of the elections on June 9, 2024, and the actual voting dates posed significant challenges. For public and private organizations, this rapid timeline made it difficult to adequately prepare defenses against these malign influence operations. Conversely, the limited timeframe also hindered the ability of threat actors to prepare and disseminate their content effectively, reducing the potential impact. Despite their efforts, the influence networks failed to significantly shift French public opinion.

1