Oren Kesler’s Post

Battle of Kharkiv II: Russia's Long-Term Strategy and Ukraine's Defensive Dilemmas https://lnkd.in/dy5ZhcdD On May 9, Russia initiated a new front in its invasion of Ukraine. The apparent target: Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city. This video explores what we know about the Russian operation thus far and why Russia started it now. We then examine the possible endgame goal of the new front, ranging from capturing the city to a simple fixing operation to freeze Ukrainian troops in place.

Potential Russian Offensive in Ukraine: Expert Analysis As tensions simmer in Eastern Europe, concerns about a potential Russian offensive in Ukraine have escalated. Military analyst and ATO veteran Evgeniy Dikiy recently shared insights suggesting a significant offensive may be imminent. In this article, we delve into Dikiy’s assessment, examining the factors driving Russia’s actions and the implications for the region. #RussiaUkraineConflict, #EvgeniyDikiyAnalysis, #UkraineFrontline, #RussianMobilization, #AugustOffensive, #MilitaryStrategy, #EasternEuropeTensions, #UkraineDefense, #RussianInvasion, #FrontlineChallenges, #InternationalResponse, #RegionalDestabilization

Russia is piling pressure on Ukraine’s stretched front line in the east, setting up fierce battles for two cities that could bring it closer to achieving its current main military aim. Moscow’s forces are targeting the Ukrainian logistics center of Pokrovsk and trying to seize the high ground in Chasiv Yar. Capturing those two cities would put Russia in position to try to take the rest of the eastern Donetsk region, which President Vladimir Putin has declared part of Russia. Russia has been steadily advancing toward Pokrovsk, with its troops just a few miles outside the city. Pokrovsk is a larger city than Avdiivka—the most recent major Ukrainian city to fall—and Ukraine is fighting for it despite being outgunned and outnumbered. Note: It’s not clear if Russia is still “steadily advancing”, the Ukrainian military has indicated that Russian advance has slowed or stalled, and Russian daily casualties are amongst the highest they’ve been in war

Putin may just want to read Ezekiel Chapter 38, before going any further against Israel.

I try to focus on the information war side of things, making predictions about kinetic military developments primarily based on developments in the information environment. Thankfully, we have plenty of qualified military specialists out there, and I offer as one such example the linked analysis of Ukraine’s shenanigans in Kursk Oblast’: https://lnkd.in/e3ZyTHpZ   ·        The analysis precisely assesses the Kursk campaign’s significance at the tactical, operational, strategic, and political levels. ·        The analysis yet again reiterates that Russia has no coherent strategy. I too reiterate anew that the current Russian regime has never had a strategy and has only ever played for tactical gain, capitalizing on the even less inspired tactical play of its adversaries. ·        The analysis clearly identifies the West’s win condition for the Russo-Ukrainian War, which has not changed since day 1: give Ukraine everything it needs, accept the elimination of the Putin regime as a strategic goal, and come to terms with the need to end Russia as an empire.   The Kremlin has never played this game well. It’s long past time that we stopped playing even worse.

Thanks to CNBC for having me on to discuss Putin's visit to China and the three things he wants from Xi: a deal to finally build the much-delayed Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline, continued (and expanded) military materiel aid, and finally additional cooperation and concrete steps on challenging the US-led economic order and in particular the dollar system. https://lnkd.in/egpjtXf5

2 wars become 1? (2.0) https://lnkd.in/g9PP4RDS As I mentioned previously, the different conflicts are starting to overlap each other. #Ukrainian #special #forces are already hunting #Wagner #PMC remnants in #Africa. But now with the #Israeli strike on the #Solid #Fuel mixing infrastructure in #Iran, it has taken out a part of the #ammunition / #logistic chain of #Russia, as it will no longer be supplied with substantial numbers of Iranian #ballistic #missiles. Nore will #Hezbollah or the #Houthis be getting significant numbers of missiles. Russia providing (#Satellite) intel to the houthis on ship movement in the #RedSea and gulf of #Aden, Iran brokering a deal for modern anti ship missiles between Russia and the houthis, after ammunition we see #DPRK troops arriving in #Kursk and the Ukrainian theatre. If foreign troops were to enter the battle on the Ukrainian side, the #Kremlin would be threatening all our #nuclear war, so how will the West respond to this clear #escalation? Which affects will this have on #Seoul stance on Ukraine? It is a military production powerhouse with hard needed vast supplies of ammunition. In the Middle East there are concrete signs Iran is preparing another round of Ballistic Missile #barrage at Israel within the next 24 hours, Israel has already taken out most of the air defences and has a track record of launching a pre-emptive strike when feeling threatened. And all this when the #US #presidential #election is nearing its showdown. Mary Jardine-Clarke Theo Francken Matthew T. J. Paul Cook

My latest deep-dive analysis of Ukraine --- a 27-minute discussion going beyond the battlefield to look at political and economic dynamics.... "We are in this for the long haul. It is not going to be a dramatic end with a breakthrough on the battlefield. The biggest development in the past month is the opening of accession talks for #Ukraine and its neighbor #Moldova to join the #EU" #UkraineWar https://lnkd.in/e2pw3_Pt

It is a remarkably interesting theory to explain a lot. This is what we see in Russia today. We also see this in certain political parties in the West. https://qr.ae/pKfgzB