Name: _______________________________ COMPUTERS REQUIRED

LAB 6: CLIMATE OBSERVATIONS IN TIME

Week of October 3rd – October 7th

OBSERVATIONS IN TIME
We’ve looked at the ways in which weather and climate data can vary geographically across the
surface of the Earth, and we’ve also seen how that data can vary with increasing altitude through the
atmosphere and increasing depth within the ocean. We’ll now turn our focus to time. In this class,
we’re interested in climate change, and one of the key dimensions over which climate can change is
over both short and long timescales.

AVERAGE YEARLY TEMPERATURES

Our first step into looking at weather and climate over time is to focus on measurements and
averages. As we’ve seen before, temperature measurements are made on a daily basis, and those
daily temperature measurements can be used to produce a daily average, a monthly average, or a
yearly average. We’re going to use NOAA’s Climate Explorer tool to examine the temperature record
over time for several different areas. Type the following address into your web browser to access
NOAA’s Climate Explorer tool:

https://crt-climate-explorer.nemac.org/

1. From the main screen, click on Phoenix, AZ and then Climate Graphs on the next screen. This will
bring up observations on the temperature record for Phoenix from 1950 to 2013, as well as several
modeled parameters. To see the temperature record more clearly, click on Modeled History, Lower
Emissions, and Higher Emissions at the bottom of the graph to toggle those modeled parameters off.
You should be left with a simple bar graph. You should be currently looking at Average Daily
Maximum Temp (°F). Click on the dropdown menu and change it to Average Daily Minimum Temp
(°F). What trend do you notice in Average Daily Minimum Temp (°F) from 1950 to 2013?

2. Hover your cursor over the bar on the graph for 1950. What is the 1950 observed temperature?
Next, hover your cursor over the bar on the graph for 2013. What is the 2013 observed temperature?

1950 Temperature (°F): 2013 Temperature (°F):

3. What is the difference in temperature between 1950 and 2013, and does it support the trend?
Subtract the value for 1950 from the value from 2013.

Difference:

4. Notice that the graph has a dashed baseline at 54.2°F that represents the observed average for the
years 1961-1990. Using this average and your 2013 temperature, what would be the temperature
anomaly for Phoenix, Arizona for 2013?

2013 Phoenix Temperature Anomaly:

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5. Click on the x next to Phoenix, AZ. This will take you back to the main screen that displays example
locations. Select Los Angeles, CA and then Climate Graphs from the next screen. This will bring up
observations on the temperature record for Los Angeles, California from 1950 to 2013, as well as
several modeled parameters. Like we did before, turn off the modeled parameters for Modeled
History, Lower Emissions, and Higher Emissions at the bottom. Also, click on the dropdown menu like
we did before and set it to Average Daily Minimum Temp (°F). What trend do you notice in Average
Daily Minimum Temp (°F) from 1950 to 2013 for Los Angeles?

6. Hover your cursor over the bar on the graph for 1950. What is the 1950 observed temperature?
Next, hover your cursor over the bar on the graph for 2013. What is the 2013 observed temperature?

1950 Temperature (°F): 2013 Temperature (°F):

7. What is the difference in temperature between 1950 and 2013, and does it support the trend?
Subtract the value for 1950 from the value from 2013.

8. Notice that the graph has a dashed baseline at 48.6°F that represents the observed average for the
years 1961-1990. Using this average and your 2013 temperature, what would be the temperature
anomaly for Los Angeles, California for 2013?

2013 Los Angeles Temperature Anomaly:

9. We know that Phoenix, AZ and Los Angeles, CA have very different climates, but their temperature
anomalies can tell us something very useful about how their climates are changing. In the table
below, summarize your findings for Phoenix and Los Angeles so that we can compare them.

1950 2013 Difference 1961-1990 2013

Temperature (°F) Temperature (°F) (°F) Average (°F) Anomaly (°F)
Phoenix
Los Angeles

10. According to the table, which location has the warmer climate, Phoenix or Los Angeles, and what
are two ways that you can tell from the data in the table above?

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11. We’ve tried to gauge the trend in temperature for these two locations using two different
methods. One is simply measuring a difference in temperature between 2013 and 1950. The other is
by looking at a 2013 temperature anomaly. Why might using only the difference in temperature
between two specific years be problematic?

12. When looking at long-term trends in temperature, we often use anomalies like the ones we
calculated for Phoenix and Los Angeles. Why might calculating an anomaly or multiple anomalies give
us a much more representative picture of a temperature trend? Hint: consider what goes into a
temperature anomaly calculation.

13. Despite the fact that Phoenix and Los Angeles have very different temperatures, what does each
of their 2013 temperature anomalies—when you compare then—tell us about the trend in recent
temperatures relative to the long-term average?

TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RECORD

We’ve seen that temperature anomalies can be incredibly useful for looking at trends in
temperatures at the local scale. We can also examine temperature anomalies at the global scale.
Type the following address into your web browser to access an interactive global temperature record:

https://www.temperaturerecord.org/

14. The first thing that you’ll see on the page is the record of global temperature anomalies that we’ll
be analyzing. Before that, however, it’s important to understand where this record comes from. Scroll
down on the page to the section on Data Sources. To determine an anomaly, we need an average for
a particular base period to create a baseline. Different time periods for the data set come from
different sources, but the same base period is used. According to the information provided, what
base period was used for the temperature anomalies, and what source did it come from?

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15. Scroll back up to the graph at the top of the page. Let’s next look at the actual time intervals of
our data. What is the oldest year represented on the graph? What is the youngest year represented
on the graph?

Oldest year: Youngest year:

16. It’s also important to understand the resolution of our data. At the start of the record, the
resolution of data is yearly data points. At the end of the record, data points are for specific months
within the year, providing a higher temporal resolution. Scan the data with your cursor. In what year
do the data points start recording the temperature in specific months, and why might it be that we
can be more specific with our data today than we could with our data at the start of the record?

17. Describe the change in trends over the course of the record. Specify the range of years for each
trend, and then indicate whether you recognize a negative trend, a positive trend, or no trend.

18. Even within a trend, there can be changes in slope. What do you notice about the change in slope
that occurs around the year 1900?

19. What does this indicate about the rate at which temperatures are changing before 1900 and after
1900, respectively?

20. The record on temperaturerecord.org is a series of yearly anomalies. Even for these anomalies,
there is variability year to year that might make it difficult to determine trends with absolute
confidence. So, how can we smooth the data further? One way is to take a moving average. Examine
Figure 1 that shows the average annual global temperature anomaly for the years 1880 to the
Present. Also shown is a 5-year average, which is an average of any given year along with the two
adjacent years on either side of it. In the table below, calculate the 5-year average for the year 1800.

Year Annual Temperature Anomaly (°C) 5-Year Average

1798 -0.28
1799 -0.26
1800 -0.28
1801 -0.32
1802 -0.21

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21. What you’ve just acquired would be a singular point for Five Year Average on a graph like the one
in Figure 1. Compare the annual average to the 5-year average in Figure 1. What effect does taking a
5-year average have on the variability of the data?

22. Notice that the first two years and the last two years of record in Figure 1 do not have a 5-year
average associated with them? Why do you think this might be?

23. If we were to go further and take a 10-year average or 20-year average, what affect would this
have on the variability of the data?

24. Does the visualization of a 5-year average, as shown in Figure 1, make a meaningful difference in
how you view the trends shown as compared to the annual average? Why or why not? Explain.

Figure 1 Annual average and five-year average of global temperature anomalies.

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COMBINING CLIMATE DATA FROM GEOGRAPHY AND FROM TIME: CARBON DIOXIDE
We’ve seen how weather and climate data can vary across geography as well as time. So, how can we
put the two together. One such way is by looking at a series of data maps representing multiple time
points over a time interval. As a simple example, let’s watch a short animation from NOAA that
highlights the release of CO2 into the atmosphere over the course of a specific time period. Type the
following address into your web browser:

https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/ff.html

25. Watch the animation that shows the accumulation of CO2 emissions globally and read the section
on Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuel Combustion. Over what time interval are we examining the
release of CO2, and how many total years are represented?

Time interval: Total years:

26. Carbon dioxide is measured in parts per million (ppm), which refers to the number of molecules
of CO2 per one million molecules of atmosphere. The animation begins with a baseline of zero, and
emissions begin to accumulate from there. So, we’re looking at a change in CO2 concentration over
the given time interval. From the start of the animation to the end of the animation, what is the
maximum change in CO2 concentration for the Northern Hemisphere and for the Southern
Hemisphere?

Northern Hemisphere change: Southern Hemisphere change:

27. We have a change in CO2 for the Northern Hemisphere and for the Southern Hemisphere. We also
have a time interval in years. Knowing the change in ppm and the change in time, we can calculate a
rate. Specifically, we can calculate separate rates for the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern
Hemisphere. Using your measured change in ppm and the change in time represented by the
animation, calculate a rate of CO2 production in ppm/year for the Northern Hemisphere and the
Southern Hemisphere.

Northern Hemisphere Production Rate:

Southern Hemisphere Production Rate:

28. Notice that the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere have different rates of CO2
production over the course of the time interval represented by the animation. Why might one
hemisphere produce more CO2 emissions than the other hemisphere?

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29. The values and rates that we’ve determined only represent the changing accumulation of CO2. As
it turns out, not all of this CO2 stays in the atmosphere. Scroll down to the second to last paragraph of
the page. The actual observed atmospheric CO2 increase is only about half that shown. Why?

30. Looking at the map of the world associated with the animation, in which hemisphere, northern or
southern, would uptake of CO2 by terrestrial plants be more significant and why? Explain.

COMBINING CLIMATE DATA FROM GEOGRAPHY AND FROM TIME: TEMPERATURE

What we’ve just looked at with carbon dioxide over short time scales can also be applied to longer
time scales. In a previous lab, we used the NOAA View Data Exploration Tool of NOAA’s climate
website. One aspect of its functionality that we haven’t yet used is its ability to scroll through time.
Type the following address into your web browser to pull up the NOAA View Data Exploration Tool
of NOAA’s climate website:
https://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/

As we’ve seen before, you are presented with a map of Earth and have the ability to add data to that
map for visualization. Click Add Data from the left menu and then select Climate > Observations >
Surface Temperature. The menu indicates that we’re looking at Surface Temperature Departure,
which would be the surface temperature anomaly relative to an average. For this particular set of
data, the base period for the average is the 20th century. On the menu, select Decadal, which will
show us decadal time slices. Also, checkmark the Data Values box if you want to see numerical values
of the data.

31. There are many places to look on the map. We’ll focus on North America. Find the time scroller at
the bottom of the menu and scroll back to the decade of 1880 to 1889. For this decade, is North
America generally warmer than average or cooler than average relative to the 20th century average?

32. Click the double arrow pointing to the right to advance forward through time, decade by decade.
What trend do you see in the data for North America as you advance the time slider from the decade
of 1970 to 1979 to the decade of 2010 to 2019?

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33. Let’s look at the whole globe now, including both land and ocean. Over the time interval from the
decade of 1880 to 1889 to the decade of 2010 to 2019, which experiences a more dramatic change in
temperature anomaly, the land or the ocean?

SUMMARY
34. We’ve seen that many of the weather and climate properties that vary geographically can also
vary over time. One of our most important tools in analyzing changes in weather and climate over
time was the anomaly. Think back to all the times that we’ve used an anomaly in this lab to assess
changing climate. In your own words, what advantage does using an anomaly provide in looking at
long-term trends in climate?