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    Task A04

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    Anugrah Pangeran
    1. The document describes a simple fisheries model with two main variables: fish and ships. The number of fish increases through hatching and decreases through death and catch, while the number of ships increases via ship building which is influenced by profits. 2. It then describes a housing market model where property prices are sensitive to supply and demand, which influence new construction projects. 3. Finally, it outlines a traditional bank run model where fear of failure can trigger withdrawals, reducing reserves and perceived solvency in a reinforcing loop.

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    Task A04

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    Anugrah Pangeran
    75 views8 pages
    1. The document describes a simple fisheries model with two main variables: fish and ships. The number of fish increases through hatching and decreases through death and catch, while the number of ships increases via ship building which is influenced by profits. 2. It then describes a housing market model where property prices are sensitive to supply and demand, which influence new construction projects. 3. Finally, it outlines a traditional bank run model where fear of failure can trigger withdrawals, reducing reserves and perceived solvency in a reinforcing loop.

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    1. The document describes a simple fisheries model with two main variables: fish and ships. The number of fish increases through hatching and decreases through death and catch, while the number of ships increases via ship building which is influenced by profits. 2. It then describes a housing market model where property prices are sensitive to supply and demand, which influence new construction projects. 3. Finally, it outlines a traditional bank run model where fear of failure can trigger withdrawals, reducing reserves and perceived solvency in a reinforcing loop.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    75 views8 pages

    Task A04

    Uploaded by

    Anugrah Pangeran
    1. The document describes a simple fisheries model with two main variables: fish and ships. The number of fish increases through hatching and decreases through death and catch, while the number of ships increases via ship building which is influenced by profits. 2. It then describes a housing market model where property prices are sensitive to supply and demand, which influence new construction projects. 3. Finally, it outlines a traditional bank run model where fear of failure can trigger withdrawals, reducing reserves and perceived solvency in a reinforcing loop.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 8

    TUGAS MATA KULIAH BERPIKIR SISTEM

    A04 Assignment: CLD Cases for Mid-term Test Score


    FISH BANKS MODEL

    Below you find a description of a very simple fisheries model, also known as the basic Fish Banks
    model. The two main variables in a fisheries model are fish and ships.

    Suppose the number of fish only increases through the fish hatch rate and decreases both through the
    fish death rate and the total catch per year. Suppose that the fish hatch rate equals the fish times the
    hatch fraction.

    The fish death rate is equal to the death fraction times the fish. The death fraction is a function of the
    carrying capacity and the number of Fish. The total catch per year depends on the number of ships
    and the annual catch per ship which is a function of the fish density.

    The density is defined as the amounts of fish in the fishing area divided by the area. Suppose that the
    number of Ships increases via the ship building rate which is a function of the investment costs per
    ship, annual profits and fraction reinvested.

    The annual profits are calculated as the revenues minus the costs. Assume that the revenues equal
    the total catch per year times the fish price and that the costs equal the unit ship operating costs times
    the number of ships.

    • Make a CLD of this model. What can be learned from it?

    • In case of undesirable conclusions, change the diagrams to turn undesirable into desirable.

    Konstanta :

    • Carrying Capacity
    • Fishing Area
    • Investment Costs per Ship
    • Fraction Reinvested

    Variabel :

    • Number of Fish
    • Hatch Fraction
    • Fish Hatch Rate
    • Death Fraction
    • Fish Death Rate
    • Fish Density
    • Annual Catch per Ship
    • Total Catch per Year
    • Fish Price
    • Revenue
    • Number of Ships
    • Revenue
    • Ship Building Rate
    • Unit Ship Operating Cost
    • Cost
    • Annual Profit
    HOUSING POLICIES

    Real estate demand in densely populated urban areas with sufficient land to extend is often rather
    price sensitive:

    declining property prices for instance caused by relative oversupply, i.e. real supply exceeding real
    estate demand, results in rapid demand rises.

    Construction companies often initiate new projects based on the demand for properties.

    Increased demand leads to new projects being initiated. Real estate construction projects are often
    completed with relatively long delays of about 2-3 years.

    Many construction companies tend to operate in these areas. And they are mostly unaware or do
    not keep track of construction projects in

    • 1. Make a CLD of this description.

    • 2. What kind of dynamics would you expect to see in property prices?

    • 3. What would be an adequate strategy of a smart construction company?


    Konstanta :

    • Area Available

    Variabel :

    • Real Estate Demand


    • New Construction Projects
    • Real Estate Supply
    • Property Price
    • Sufficient Land

    - 2. Limit to Growth Archetype


    Pada loop B1 dan B2 dimana variabel “Sufficient Land” menjadi variabel batasan jika lahan
    menjadi semakin sedikit.
    Property Price nilainya semakin tinggi jika Sufficient Land semakin sedikit yang dipengaruhi
    oleh tingginya Real Estate Supply dan Real Estate Demand dimana awalnya disebabkan oleh
    Property Price yang masih rendah karena Sufficient Land-nya masih tersedia banyak sebagai
    titik awal.
    - 3. Strategi yang bisa dilakukan : Melakukan monitoring pada projek yang sedang dilakukan
    sehingga waktu penyelesaian projek sesuai target, Menyadari ketersediaan lahan sebagai
    batasan, Mempelajari lokasi area-area baru yang tersedia untuk projek baru yang potensial,
    Mendukung peraturan pemerintah terkait pembangunan yang berkelanjutan (sustainable).
    A TRADITIONAL BANK RUN

    A traditional bank run starts when (correct or incorrect) information about potential problems at a
    bank leads to fear of a bank failure. More fear leads to a higher tendency to withdraw personal
    savings. An increase of withdrawals leads to a decrease of the perceived solvency of the bank which
    leads to more fear of a bank failure. An increase of withdrawals also leads to a decrease of liquid
    bank reserves and hence to a lower liquidity of the bank. Banks then need to turn more and more
    illiquid assets into liquid assets (money) to have sufficient liquid assets to pay for (future)
    withdrawals. Due to the speed required to liquidate illiquid assets, huge losses are often made,
    resulting in a reduction of the solvency of the bank. The lower the solvency of the bank, the lower
    the perceived solvency of the bank, which leads to more fear of a bank failure. Weak or uncertain
    economic conditions result in more fear and lower perceived solvency.

    • 1. Make a causal loop diagram of this description. This causal loop diagram should be similar to the
    ones described in (Richardson 1991; MacDonald 2002). How many feedback loops are there? What
    is their polarity?

    • 2. What are the possible systems behaviors suggested by this CLD?

    Variabel :

    • Fear of Bank Failure


    • Tendency to Withdraw Personal Savings
    • Liquid Bank Reserves
    • The Solvency of The Bank
    • The Perceived Solvency of The Bank
    • Weak or Uncertain Economic Condition

    2. Semakin lemah dan tidak tentunya kondisi ekonomi menyebakan semakin tinggi The Fear of Bank
    Failure dan semakin tinggi Tendency to Withdraw Personal Savings. Semakin tingginya Tendency to
    Withdraw Personal Savings, menyebabkan semakin rendahnya The Perceived Solvency of The Bank
    dan juga mempengaruhi semakin rendahnya Liquid Bank Reserves dan rendahnya The Solvency of
    The Bank. Semakin rendahnya The Perceived Solvency of The Bank akan secara berulang menaikkan
    The Fear of Bank Failure.

    The Shifting to Burden Archetype,

    Pada sistem cenderung untuk menyelasaikan gejala-gejalanya saja namun bukan inti masalahnya.
    Terutama ketika waktu kebijakan liquidity tetap diimplementasikan. Bank seharusnya berfokus pada
    solusi masalah inti yang mampu menciptakan kondisi keuangan yang lebih stabil, seperti melalukan
    prediksi (forecasting) dan menyiapkan safety net untuk menanggulangi kerugian.
    ENERGY TRANSITIONS

    Energy Transitions are dynamically complex: they are governed by many feedback effects and long
    delays. Energy transitions are also deeply uncertain: major uncertainties –related to individuals,
    particular technologies, the entire system, and hence for policy/decision makers in the energy field–
    are omnipresent. Energy technologies face many uncertainties and need to overcome many hurdles,
    even before becoming commercially viable and entering the energy technologies battlefield.

    • One of these hurdles is the so-called ‘valley of death’. That is, quite often, entrepreneurs and
    technology developers bring a new technology to the pre-commercial stage, but due to a lack of
    investments, it does not survive the phase between (subsidized) entrepreneurial technology
    development and large-scale commercial take-off in which subsidies are (often) forbidden. It is hard
    to predict which promising technologies will actually make it, and hence, which might possibly
    become the technologies of the future.

    • Many self-reinforcing uncertainties influence perceived certainty related to each new technology.
    The lower the perceived certainty, the higher the perceived risk and the lower the entrepreneurial
    willingness to acquire knowledge/experiment/lobby/. . . in order to bring a technology to the point
    where it would be considered a good investment. Resources for actions to reduce uncertainty may
    actually help to take this hurdle and may lead to more perceived certainty and raise perceptions
    about the potential success of the technology. This in turn reinforces (intrinsic) entrepreneurial
    motivation, resulting in more willingness to act. A reduction of the perceived risk and an increase of
    the entrepreneurial motivation are the preconditions to further the state of development and
    increase the willingness to invest of entrepreneurs and risk-taking energy companies, which in turn
    leads to more real investments, contributing to the success of the technology, reinforcing the
    willingness to invest, etc.

    • 1. Make a CLD of the pre-battlefield struggle. How many loops are there? What is their polarity?
    What would be appropriate names?

    • 2. What policy recommendations could be derived from this CLD?


    Variabel :

    • Company’s Will to Invest


    • New Technology
    • Real Investment
    • Resources
    • Perceived Certainty
    • Perceived Risk
    • Entrepreuner’s Will to Acquire Knowledge
    • Success Perception
    • Entrepreuner’s Motivation
    • Entrepreuner’s Will To Act

    Ada 5 Loop :

    1. R1 (Reinforcing) : Investment in New Product Development Loop


    2. R2 (Reinforcing) : Knowledge in New Product Development Loop
    3. R3 (Reinforcing) : Investment by Risk Loop
    4. R4 (Reinforcing) : Act to New Product Development Loop
    5. R5 (Reinforcing) : Investment by Potential Loop

    2. Policy Recommendation :

    Sistem memiliki potensi untuk mengalami pertumbuhan di masa depan. Oleh karena itu, pihak
    pemerintah perlu membuat regulasi untuk mempertahankan ketersediaan sumber daya (resources)
    sehingga entrepreuner-entrepreuner mampu bersaing secara sehat dalam memanfaatkan sumber
    daya yang sama.

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