ALM End Term Merged
ALM End Term Merged
ALM End Term Merged
1
Outline
• RBI IRRBB guidelines 2017 - snapshot.
• Modelling Yield Curve Risk.
• Modelling Basis Risk.
• Modelling Options Risk.
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IRRBB – Basel 2016/RBI 2017
• Capture three types of scenarios – internal, historical
and subjective stress shocks and six regulatory ones.
• Assess repricing, yield curve, basis and options risks.
• Slot cash flows from all RSAs and RSLs (including
future interest receipts and payments), in 19 repricing
buckets, from 1 day to above 20 years.
• Discount all cash flows, with appropriate yields, to
compute EVE.
• If EVE falls by more than 15% of T1 capital, reduce
exposure or add to capital for IRRBB.
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IRRBB – Basel 2016/RBI 2017
• Parallel shock up;
• Parallel shock down;
• Steepener shock (short rates down and long rates up);
• Flattener shock (short rates up and long rates down);
• Short rates shock up; and
• Short rates shock down.
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Yield curve versus Basis Risks
• Yield curve risk captures the impact of rate shocks
which are common to all products within a given
segment, but unequal for different maturity segments.
➢ It ignores changes in product-specific spreads
• Basis risk captures the impact of rate shocks which
are equal across various tenors, but dissimilar for
different products within a given segment.
➢ The focus is on capturing changes in product-specific spreads.
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Modelling Yield Curve Risk
• Depending on the complexity of the bank, choose an
appropriate model of the yield curve which is also
relevant to the Indian market.
• Using the parameters, generate model yields, for at
least 250 days in the past, corresponding to the
midpoints of the maturity buckets.
• Calculate annual changes in yields, for each maturity
bucket, to create a history of model yield shocks.
• Estimate the NII and EVE impact with either
Historical or Monte Carlo simulation methods.
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Historical Simulation
(1) Measure annual changes in historical yields for
various tenors for the past 250 or 500 days.
(2) Rank shocks, in ascending order, from the sharpest
rise to the sharpest decline.
(3) Mark off the 99% or 95% worst shock for each
tenor.
(4) Calculate the NII and EVE impact as before.
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Modelling Basis Risk
• Pick up average advance and deposit rates, from at
least one year of historical data from the bank,
ensuring that there are no volatility or regime shifts.
• Calculate the annual changes in advance and deposit
rates, to create a history of rate shocks.
• Use Historical Simulation, as before, to estimate rate
shocks at a particular c.l..
• Estimate NII or EVE impact for such rate shocks.
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Options Risk
• Effect of options embedded in bank assets, liabilities
and OBS items on future NII and Net worth. Such
options provide a customer the right, but not the
obligation, to alter the cash flows of these products.
(1)Borrowers have the right to prepay their term-loans.
(2)Depositors have the right to rebook their term
deposits.
(3) Savings and current account holders have the right
to introduce or withdraw money at any point.
Modelling Options Risk
• Estimate the extent of premature withdrawal or
prepayment, on liabilities and assets, for each tenor.
• Redistribute RSAs and RSLs, across buckets, based
on estimated options exercise.
• Compute MVAs and MVLs after the reallocation.
• Calculate repricing and duration gaps again.
• Calculate the NII and EVE impact after options
exercise.
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EVE Impact as on 31.3. xx (in Rs. Cr.)
Pillar II
EVE Impact Share Capital
Bank A Bank B
Q1 57.37% 55.46%
Q2 77.59% 49.10%
Q3 45.15% 45.63%
Q4 53.73% 42.21%
Q5 63.38% 39.10%
Q6 60.97% 44.47%
Q7 70.69% 43.73%
Q8 76.96% 42.98%
Cost of Funds (in %)
Y1 Y2 Y3
LCR India
L1 assets 0% 10%