Rob M.

MSO earnings season starts this week, with eight of the top ten US operators reporting. Consensus analyst expectations are for the top ten MSOs to show a Q/Q 2.62% contraction in revenue and adjusted EBITDA to decline 6.18%. (1/3) The top ten MSOs' Y/Y revenue is expected to grow by 3.20%, and AEBITDA is expected to expand by 17.30%. Analysts predict the highest Y/Y revenue growth for Ascend Wellness Holdings (CSE: AAWH.U / OTCQX:AAWH) at +22.40%, and Cresco Labs is predicted to have the best Y/Y improvement in AEBITDA at +62.00%. Finally, here are some of the companies reporting this week: May 7: Ascend Wellness Holdings (CSE: AAWH.U / OTCQX:AAWH) May 8: Green Thumb Industries (GTI), Verano, MariMed, Inc. May 9: Curaleaf, Trulieve, TerrAscend, Cannabist, Jushi Holdings Inc. Source: FactSet

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𝗕𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗲𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗲𝘁 𝗘𝗧𝗙 https://lnkd.in/dCYdE-zK   Risk parity funds for retail investors have not worked well over the past decade or so (and Bridgewater’s All-Weather strategy has also underperformed for some time): the pioneer in the industry (Wealthfront Risk Parity Fund with $1.3bn in AUMs) is going to be liquidated in January https://lnkd.in/dya2H6SZ , and other products have also failed to beat a simpler 60/40 strategy.   This despite the carnage in bond markets in 2022 and the elevated asset correlations (or, more likely, because of…).   I guess it all boils down to the specific strategy used: this product will also use leverage in an ETF, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. 

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The popular VC Secondary Series interviews have been compiled into a free book available at the Point Capital website. Expanding the series to include PE Secondaries interviews. In this release, Joseph Marks, the Global Head of Secondaries at Capital Dynamics having started his career with Coller Capital, offers his knowledge and perspectives. Published on SecondaryLink. For a copy, DM with your email. “I think we are going to look back and see that this time period was still the early innings. I can see a stable state with these GP-led vehicles becoming a constant and reliable source of liquidity for private equity managers, helping to address the DPI challenges seen recently. We may see GP-leds essentially becoming the third leg of liquidity for GPs (alongside IPOs and M&A transactions), happening when it is needed most…although at a market clearing price.” https://lnkd.in/eZzPTVQe

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All areas of commerce are benefitting from data analysis, and our industry is no different. And when it comes to hard data, Henry Schwartz is among the very best. Good, punchy interview here fresh from the OIC on many hot topics in the listed options space, including the rise of the "ProTail" customer using options strategically. #Options #OptionsStrategies #Cboe #SPX #VIX #XSP #OIC #0DTE

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Global Allocator Discussion: Asset Class and Regional Selection, Weightings and Positioning, Thursday, November 21st @ 10:00am NYC time hosted by The Allocator Network. In my many conversations I speak to allocators who are looking for diversifying strategies, uncorrelated assets, niche credit, niche equity, emerging markets, developed markets, low beta funds, high beta funds, more liquid, less liquid, bank SRTs, biotech funds, risk on, risk off, etc. The Allocator Network will host a discussion with a small and diverse group of global allocators sharing thoughts on portfolio construction and positioning - and on specific managers and funds - going into the new year. Let me know if you have interest in joining the discussion.

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Over 240 firms added 450+ strategies to the Nasdaq eVestment platform in 1Q24 for visibility with consultants, intermediaries, and investors. The newly marketed strategies were added by firms domiciled across 30 unique countries spanning from Australia to Singapore to Switzerland, and 28% indicated integration of ESG considerations into their respective investment processes. From a geographic standpoint almost 200 were broadly diversified (i.e. had a global investment focus) in nature, however, in total the newly promoted strategies spanned over 30 different regions across #balanced, #equities, #fixedincome, #hedgefund and #realestate capabilities. Please see the link below for further details… (managers please do contact the Nasdaq eVestment team should you have questions regarding optimizing presence/visibility, opportunities, and relevant trends/insights of those areas where your firm has expertise!).

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Private Equity’s Deal Engines Roar Back: Buyout and infrastructure firms see artificial intelligence driving demand for data-center investing. Private equity’s dealmaking machinery upshifted in recent months, easing fundraising strains and paving the way for an accelerated pace over this year’s second half. With the market getting back in gear, private-equity firms are taking on billion-dollar investments in data centers—the warehouse-size buildings that house racks stuffed with computer servers used to crunch and transmit streams of information—and related projects to capitalize on a cloud-computing and artificial-intelligence boom that is boosting expectations for productivity gains. “AI is widely acknowledged as having the potential to be one of the greatest drivers of transformation in a generation,” Stephen A. Schwarzman, Blackstone’s chairman and chief executive, said on an earnings call last month. As he has before, he likened the potential impact of generative AI to the epochal effects of the invention of electric lights. Blackstone invested nearly $34 billion in the three months through June, the most for any quarter in two years, with $19 billion more committed to deals currently in the works, firm executives said. Blackstone’s second-quarter transactions included $4.5 billion of a $7.5 billion debt package for CoreWeave, an AI-focused cloud services provider and data-center operator, Schwarzman said. He described the financing as the largest in the firm’s history.  Similarly, Ares Management invested some $26 billion in the just-ended period, putting the quarter in the top two for capital deployment by the firm, CEO Michael Arougheti said during an Aug. 2 earnings call. Ares has invested nearly $5 billion over the past five years combined in digital infrastructure, including data centers and fiber-optic networks, he said. While AI drives demand for data-center capacity, “what is increasingly important to underscore is that the bottleneck for AI development is, increasingly, access to power,” Connor Teskey, president of Toronto-based Brookfield Asset Management, said on an earnings call Wednesday. He pointed to a recent deal with Microsoft that calls for Brookfield to invest more than $10 billion in renewable energy to support data centers as an example of this dynamic. “Renewable power, transmission and distributed generation are critical infrastructures that are currently insufficient but essential for supporting AI’s expansion,” Teskey said.  Investors with deep pockets have flooded the sector in recent years. In 2022, for example, private equity accounted for roughly 91%, or $44 billion, of global data-center deals, according to Synergy Research Group. The pace of dealmaking in the sector has picked up after ebbing last year, according to John Dinsdale, chief analyst and managing director at Synergy. Capital Innovations, LLC #InfrastructureInvesting

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A great article by Michael Swinsburg on the evolving role of the COO, highlighting how they are transitioning from behind-the-scenes to front-facing leaders, managing diverse teams and geographies to drive strategic growth and innovation. The focus on resilience, renewal, robustness, and relationships is spot on, particularly in today’s complex and fast-changing landscape. https://lnkd.in/gjcjJqZW

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Great panel about growth strategies with recently promoted Robert Karofsky (Co- President Americas - UBS) recently promoted Michael Camacho (Head of WM US), and John S. Mathews (Head of PWM - UBS)! Few insights from the private wealth briefing: 1) ~$18T of assets will pass between generations from now to 2030 based on a recent Ernst & Young survey. 2) ~$30T of assets will pass to women between now to 2030 based on a recent McKinsey survey. 3) UBS ARC (Analytical Research Community) is a competitive advantage: connecting tech founders, venture capitalists with high quality sector research. 4) Recently created Unified Global Banking, led by Jennifer Gabrielli aims to bring 'one bank' to the next level with wrap around solutions for private clients and their companies. Thanks for spending time together! Team: Chuck Korasick / Robert Gach / Jen Lechman / Samantha Bloom / Jon Schechter, CFP® / Lizzie / Susan Mgmt: Lauren Gorsche #ubsglobalwealthmanagemnt #pwmconference2024

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Lower middle market M&A continues to show robust activity in 2024. GF Data reports 180 deals closed in 1H, set to outpace 2022 and 2023. Average multiples up to 7.4x EBITDA in Q2 from 6.9x in Q1. Seller-friendly environment emerging. Smart business owners are aligning with the right advisors to navigate these shifts. Wondering where you fit in? Reach out to learn more: https://lnkd.in/e6yVTpb4 #growthstage #REAG #mergers #business #acquisitions #lowermiddlemarket #investmentbank

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If you think portfolio risk management is just about diversification, think again. This article sheds light on some surprising strategies that challenge common perceptions. Here are some thought-provoking takeaways: - Did you know that reducing the number of investments in a portfolio can sometimes actually decrease risks? It's all about strategic selection. - Contrary to popular belief, actively managing risk doesn't necessarily mean more frequent trading. In fact, a hands-off approach can be a smart move. - One of the key points discussed is the importance of understanding the correlation between investments, a factor often overlooked in risk management strategies. - Asymmetric risk and the role it plays in portfolio management is explored, offering a fresh perspective on balancing risk and return. - Ever considered tail risk hedging? This article dives into this lesser-known strategy that can enhance risk management effectiveness. Share your thoughts and feelings on these unconventional risk management strategies. https://lnkd.in/ecgSpH93

New Whitepaper from Caron's Corner: In this paper we discuss new management techniques required to capture higher returns in a higher inflation regime. A new market regime is upon us catalyzed by rising inflation risks. This presents a challenge to investors seeking to compound returns at target levels with stability because it increases correlation risks. Effectively, it pushes the efficient frontier inwards and reduces risk-adjusted return potential. In this paper, we explain how we counter this adverse impact to returns in this new regime through a new management approach with the goal of achieving stable target returns. https://mgstn.ly/3QNuw0f

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Macquarie Group today announced the offer of a new Additional Tier 1 capital instrument, Macquarie Group Capital Notes 7 (ASX:MQGPG), to raise $1 billion with the ability to raise more or less (Offer). The Offer includes a Reinvestment Offer for Eligible Macquarie Group Capital Notes 3 Holders (ASX:MQGPC). Shaw and Partners is pleased to be appointed as Joint Lead Manager to the Offer. The Margin is expected to be between 2.65% and 2.85% per annum and will be determined through the bookbuild. Distributions are non-cumulative and are expected to be paid quarterly in arrears, subject to the satisfaction of the Distribution Payment Conditions, which include that payment of Distributions are within the absolute discretion of Macquarie. The Distribution Payment Dates are 15 March, 15 June, 15 September and 15 December. The first Distribution is scheduled to be paid on 16 December 2024. Macquarie Capital Notes are Callable at MQG’s option on 15 December 2031, 15 June 2032 or 15 December 2032 (first approximately 7.25 years), or following a Tax or Regulatory Event. Macquarie Capital Notes 7 will Mandatorily Convert into Ordinary Shares on 15 December 2034 (subject to certain conditions), unless they are converted, Redeemed or Resold earlier. This offer is restricted to Australian Resident Wholesale clients (Sophisticated or Professional) and clients that receive personal financial product advice from a financial adviser to acquire Macquarie Group Capital Notes 7. For more information, please contact your Shaw and Partners adviser. The issuer of the securities is Macquarie Group Limited ABN 94 122 169 279. Offers of the securities will be made in (or accompanied by) a copy of the disclosure document, available at Macquarie Group Capital Notes 7 Prospectus - 19 Aug 2024 and you should consider the disclosure document carefully before deciding whether to acquire the securities. To acquire securities under the offer investors will need to complete an application form accompanying the disclosure document. For more information, please contact your Shaw and Partners Adviser.

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How is #NuveenInfrastructure’s clean energy team reducing carbon emissions while generating critical clean power globally? Read the 2023 clean energy infrastructure sustainability report, which includes a detailed overview of avoided emissions across our equity and credit strategies, how we incorporate physical climate risk considerations into our investments, as well as how we aim to protect marine life during offshore wind construction.

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Listen to David B. Golub on the latest Fiftyfaces podcast with Aoifinn Devitt, where he speaks about how Golub Capital has built its competitive advantages over the last 30 years and the importance of culture to the Firm’s continued success: https://okt.to/JiTvQr #privatecredit #leadership #podcast

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The futures market remains optimistic about rate cuts, with SOFR falling to 3.0%. ChatGPT summary of this morning’s inflation report: Major Sectors with Low or Negative Inflation (Year-Over-Year) 1. Gasoline (all types) (-10.3%): Gas prices continued to fall, significantly lowering energy costs. 2. Used cars and trucks (-10.4%): Prices of used vehicles dropped further after the pandemic-era price spikes. 3. New vehicles (-1.2%): New car prices also fell, helping consumers. 4. Apparel (0.3%): This category includes clothing and footwear, but excludes accessories like jewelry. 5. Fruits and vegetables (-0.2%): A decrease in produce prices helped moderate food inflation. 6. Cereals and bakery products (-0.3%): Slight deflation in this food category contributed to overall stability in food prices. 7. Nonalcoholic beverages (1.3%): Includes drinks like coffee, tea, and soft drinks. 8. Fuel oil (-12.1%): A steep decline in fuel oil costs contributed to lower overall energy prices. Major Sectors Where Inflation Remains High 1. Owner’s equivalent rent of residences (5.4%): This is an estimate of what homeowners would pay in rent, a key driver of inflation. The methodology behind this measure is considered by many to be problematic. 2. Rent of primary residence (5.0%): Actual rent payments continue to grow, though at a slower pace. 3. Electricity (3.9%): Electricity costs are still climbing, adding to household expenses. 4. Food away from home: Limited service meals and snacks (4.3%): Fast food and takeout prices continue to rise, contributing to higher dining costs. 5. Hospital services (6.1%): Hospital services, including both inpatient and outpatient care, saw a steep increase. 6. Motor vehicle insurance (16.5%): Insurance prices remain a standout for high inflation, driven by rising repair and replacement costs. 7. Transportation services (7.9%): Public transit and airfares have risen substantially, although gasoline is excluded from this category. 8. Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (3.2%): Food inflation, particularly in proteins, remains problematic.

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The AI revolution is here! Major companies are now deploying generative AI in real-world applications, signaling potential investment opportunities in many sectors. Putnam Investments’ Richard Bodzy and Greg McCullough share their insights at https://lnkd.in/gqyqaprT.

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In the latest issue of Moelis's Clean Technology Monthly, we highlight what's in focus this earnings season in the sector, examine the rapidly growing U.S. data center market and take a closer look at why the transformer industry is poised for growth. We also sit down with the CEO of Budderfly to discuss challenges and opportunities as an EaaS company, and the future outlook for using technology to transform energy management, reducing costs and emissions. Click to learn more about Moelis’s dynamic advisory practice: https://bit.ly/3M0xnQC #CleanTechnology #Sustainability #EnergyManagement #DataCenters #GridModernization #EarningsSeason

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