FINC6021 - Financial Statements
FINC6021 - Financial Statements
FINC6021 - Financial Statements
Statements
Developed and Presented by
Dr Angelo Aspris
Discipline of Finance
I want you to know these things so as to be able to construct your own statements
which will form the basis of your valuation.
The University of Sydney Page 2
Financial Statements
– Accounting plays an important role in valuation analysis:
– It is the language for describing financial position and performance
– Provides the framework that valuation takes place in.
– The focus here is on financial analysis not accounting in its own right.
– Equity is also known as net assets or book value. If all assets are and liabilities
were recorded at market values then
– Note that in the context of financial analysis we may depart from the
traditional accounting groupings for balance sheet items.
– As equity is equal to assets less liabilities, periodic net income is related to equity
as:
– Given the clean surplus relation, what information does the income
statement add?
– The information comes from the classification of changes in assets and liabilities into the
components of income.
– This statement does not give full information about the amount of cash
that the firm generates.
– It aims to provide a measure of the economic performance of the firm.
– This is straightforward for most cases, but can require subjective judgments in certain cases
such as long-term contracts.
– Revenue is the key driver of the firm’s activities, once revenue is recognised accounting rules
attempt to match asset consumption necessary to produce the revenue.
– Revenue recognition criteria is even more important than you may first appreciate –
why?
– Companies are valued on multiples of revenue (Therefore, higher revenue higher
value)
– Pro-formas are typically prepared in a top-down fashion – hence revenues are a key
driver of profits.
– Revenue quality – and the ability to turn it into cash – will tell you a lot about the
financial viability of a firm.
– Remember, that an income statement does not necessarily tell you about cash!
The University of Sydney Page 24
Drivers of Revenue
– Financing the Business = Interest & Finance Costs / Profit Before Tax
– Operating profit or EBIT is the difference between revenue and expenses associated
with the firm’s recurring or ongoing operations. This is seen as the primary driver
of firm value (also note the use of EBITDA).
Operating Profit (EBIT) =Revenue – Expenses
– Profit Before Taxes (PBT) or EBT accounts for the firm’s net interest expense
– Tax is applied to EBT to arrive at Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) or Net Income
– Historical profit numbers are usually analysed excluding or “normalising” for non-
recurring items but are often disclosed in financial reports.
– However, it does generate a tax saving (tax shield) because it is tax deductible
so we need to track it separately in order to accurately calculate cash taxes for
our FCF calculation.
– The CFS outlines the firm’s sources and uses of cash and shows the net cash provided or used
by the firm
– The Free Cash Flow (FCF) that we are interested in for the purpose of valuation is not
provided by the CFS. We need to derive it.
The University of Sydney Page 30
Why is cash flow information so important?
– It allows us to:
– Assess the solvency of companies
– Assess the financial flexibility and capacity to adapt
– Investing Activities: are activities that result in changes in the size and
composition of the contributed equity and borrowing of the entity
– While catching outright fraud is quite difficult, warning bells should go off when you see the following:
– Income from unspecified sources – holdings in other businesses that are not revealed or from special purpose entities.
– Sudden changes in standard expense items – a big drop in SG&A or R&D expense as a % of revenues.
– Understanding the interaction of these factors will allow an analyst (or investor) to
make informed and rational choices regarding the assumptions that will form the
pro-forma model.
The University of Sydney Page 43
Ratio Analysis
– This is primarily done using ratio analysis.
– The first step is to study the firm’s past performance using financial ratios.
– Then proceed to predict future financial ratios. Often this is based on the
assumption that past relationships will continue into the future.
– While not all accounts in financial statements will be related to sales, this
approach is based on the assumption that in the long run all a firm’s
productive assets will be related to sales.
– Think about a firm that has recently seen an increase in sales. When a firm’s
sales increases, its expenses will also increase as a function of the production
process; its assets will increase to support the increase in sales; and its
liabilities will also increase to finance the expansion.
– Hence the analysis we need to perform is to use ratios to relate the variables used to derive
free cash flow to sales.
– How are components of the income statement related to sales?
– How are working capital requirements related to sales?
– How is capital expenditure related to sales?
– There are a large number of ratios that can be calculated. In this analysis ratios that have an
economic interpretation will be used whenever they exist.
– Essentially the focus will be on efficiency and profitability ratios.
– Depending on the context, different ratios may be used (e.g., an equity investor vs. a lender).
– How does one find the key drivers and assess their effects?
– Accounting consistency
– Do the financial statements balance?
– Do they “articulate?”
– Are they a good model of the firm’s finances?
– We will assume that COGS, SGA, Cash, Inventory, Accounts Receivable, Net PPE,
Accounts Payable, and accrued expenses vary with sales.
– In the short run SGA and Net PPE may not directly vary with sales.
– Depreciation charges are set by the depreciation schedule and depend on Net PPE.
The University of Sydney Page 58
Choosing Inputs for the Model
– Projecting taxes
– After speaking with marketing and operations, the analyst predicts that CorpVals’s sales
will increase by 9% next year due to increased unit sales, and by 2% due to anticipated
inflation.
– Dollar sales therefore are projected to increase by a total of 11% from $1,000 to
$1,110.
The University of Sydney Page 61
COGS / SGA
– COGS
– Higher COGS comes from higher production costs or lower sales price, or
both.
– Lower COGS comes from cost containment with stable prices, or higher prices
with stable costs, or both.
– Marketing predicts COGS will decrease from last year’s 64% to 62.5% of
sales.
– The differences come from timing differences (using two different depreciation schemes) and permanent
differences (expenses not allowed under tax law that are included in income calculation).
– Remember: Net operating losses can be carried backward and forward. Additionally, be mindful that tax
rates may not persist at current levels.
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– Inventories
– Higher inventory means more investment, but lower chance of a stock out. Lower
inventory may increase chance of missed sales.
– Averaged 9% of sales. Expects to stock up in 2004 to support the projected summer
recovery, so will be 11% of sales.
– Accounts payable
– Increasing AP means paying later, decreasing means paying earlier.
– Payables deferral period = AP/(COGS/365)
– Has been 45.6 days. This corresponds to accounts payable of 8.1% of sales.
– CorpVal’s will maintain this policy.
Balance sheet
Cash 50.0 33.3
Inventory 100.0 122.1
Accounts receivable 75.0 84.4
Total operating current assets 225.0 239.8
Net PP&E 300.0 377.4
Total net operating assets 525.0 617.2
– The quality of the financial statements should be assessed, and appropriate adjustments made
before ratios are calculated.
– Assess the reasonableness of the accounting choices and assumptions embedded in the
statements.
– Deviations from industry averages are not necessarily good or bad and must be interpreted in
the context of the operating and financial policies and overall performance.
– Outliers:
– Are the observations outliers or extreme states of the underlying
characteristics? Is it inconsistent with the remainder of the data set.
– Recording error, low denominator, accounting classification or method,
economic, structural change.
– 3 Categories of Policies
– Cash management
– Capital structure
– Dividends
– Dividends? Repurchases?
– Common Stock
– Issuing common stock is expensive, so companies do it infrequently.
– The assumption is that CorpVal’s will not issue common stock. Instead, it will fund its equity needs
by retaining its profits rather than paying them out as dividends.
– Dividends
– Board of directors sets dividend payments.
– Within bounds, dividends can be just about any level at all.
– Dividends are assumed to grow at their historical rate (other?).
– Following the projections of specific accounts in the income statement and balance
sheet, an analyst will often find that the cumulative asset position either exceeds
or is less than the cumulative financing position.
– While the assumptions made for long-term debt financing should ensure that there
is not an overwhelming large financing gap, not correcting for the difference will
mean that a firm may not have enough financing in place to purchase operating
assets needed to support is sales.
– The plug is normally expressed in the balance sheet as short term debt if the cumulative asset
position is greater than the cumulative financing position or short-term investments if the
cumulative asset position is less than the cumulative financing position .
– The plug is causing the balance sheet to move into an equilibrium position consistent with general
accounting conventions.
The University of Sydney Page 81
Completing the Income Statement
– Project interest income/expense
– Project dividends
Other Assumptions:
– Interest rates:
– 3% on short-term investments
– 9% on all debt
– Dividends were $16 million in 2003. They will grow by 10% to $17.6 million in 2004.
– Long-term debt will decline from 18.9% of operating assets to 15% of operating assets.
– Projected operating assets = cash + accounts receivable + inventories + net PPE
= $33.3 + $84.4 + $122.1 + $377.4 = $617.2 million.
– Projected long-term debt = 0.15($617.2) = $92.6 million.
Interest Rates
– Why?
– The income statement drives the balance sheet
– The balance sheet affects the income statement through interest expense
– No solution can be found except by iteration
– Although the process is similar, extra care must be taken in multi-year projections.
– These two measures are linked and the relationship is affected by firm financial
policies.
Company 1 Company 2
Scenario EBIT ($) Net Profit ROE (%) Net Profit ROE (%)
($) ($)
Bad Year 5 3 3 1.08 1.8
* Note: SE and Total Assets are normally measured as an average (over the year)
Remember:
– This ratio indicates how many times annual sales cover total assets. In examining
this ratio, it is important also to examine the related net income to sales ratio.
– Firms may trade off an increase in the total asset turnover ratio for a decrease in the
net income to sales ratio.
– Like many other ratios, the magnitude of this ratio can be affected
markedly by inventory valuation rules.
– For example, for firms experiencing increasing raw material prices and
increasing inventory levels, the use of LIFO typically will result in higher
inventory turnover ratios vis-à-vis the ratios computed with the FIFO valuation
method.
– This is because LIFO assumes that the oldest inventories (and hence lowest
priced inventories in times of inflation) will be included in closing inventory.
– The higher each of these ratios, the higher the cash resources available to the
The University of firm.
Sydney Is this a good thing? Page 116
Liquidity and Solvency Ratios
– As with all ratios, care needs to be taken ascertaining the
accounting policy adopted in the measurement and
presentation of elements of the financial statement.
– The growing complexity of hybrid securities has increased they grey areas
that arise when computing debt-to-equity ratios.
– The average total assets figure in the ratios is typically calculated as the weighted
average of the opening and closing total asset figure for the fiscal period.
– The higher each of the ratios, the larger the cash flow generated by the firm in its
operations
– The growing complexity of hybrid securities has increased they grey areas
that arise when computing debt-to-equity ratios.
Valuation Multiples