Michael Thrasher

📈🏢 Aby Rosen's RFR Holding is facing a staggering $2.5B debt bill as defaults pile up! 💥 🔎 According to a recent Bisnow article, RFR Holding, a prominent NYC real estate firm, is grappling with mounting debt and defaults. The company, led by billionaire Aby Rosen, has a portfolio of high-profile properties, including the iconic Seagram Building and Lever House. 🏢🏦 📊 The firm's debt load has surged to a whopping $2.5B, with $1.1B in loans maturing this year alone. 💸 The pandemic has hit the commercial real estate market hard, causing defaults to skyrocket. RFR Holding is no exception, with defaults on several properties, including the $200M mortgage on the Seagram Building. 📉 🗣️ "The pandemic has created a perfect storm for commercial real estate," said one industry expert. "Companies like RFR Holding are facing unprecedented challenges as they navigate this difficult time." 🌪️ 🔜 So, what's next for RFR Holding? The company is reportedly exploring options to refinance its debt and avoid further defaults. 💡 With the commercial real estate market showing signs of recovery, there's hope that RFR Holding can weather this storm. 🌞 Stay tuned for more updates on this developing story! 📰🔔 #RFRHolding #CommercialRealEstate #Debt #Defaults #NYCRealEstate

5

Brevan Howard's $12 billion flagship fund is down 2.4% this year. 🏢 Despite gaining 0.77% in May, Brevan Howard's Master Fund is falling behind the industry average. 🏢 Hedge funds have averaged 5% gains year-to-date, according to data from research firm HFR. 🏢 Macro hedge funds have beaten equity and emerging market funds to post average gains of 6.5% this year. #hedgefunds https://lnkd.in/eBNMyhMX

76

In the paper's Closing Bell column, looked at how documents lodged with SEC show Bill Ackman is set to IPO his biggest fund yet for retail investors, targeting a $US26b raising, zero performance fees, zero management fees for 12 months, close-ended structure, UBS, Citi underwriting, spoke to Geoff Wilson Wilson Asset Management https://lnkd.in/gHgd9te5

7

PE execs usually keep a low profile. But Clayton, Dubilier & Rice's Dan Glaser let it rip at Charles Schwab's IMPACT conference yesterday, revealing why Focus Financial Partners was an 'ideal' buyout target and how the flaws in the RIA's old model caused it to 'hit a wall.' Led by Michael Nathanson and Adam Birenbaum, Glaser sees a revamped Focus as a consolidator that will become one of the four or five 'very large' RIAs dominating the industry. Tom Burroughes Family Wealth Report #SchwabIMPACT #privateequity #mergersandacquisitions

51

1 Comment

The Securities and Exchange Commission's Investor Advisory Council is citing my article on "finfluencers" in its proposal to require people giving investment advice on social media to clearly reveal compensation, conflicts of interest, etc. I am all for more transparency, as it improves markets, but to my mind, enforcement will be a big challenge. There are so many people trying to "finfluence" I can't imagine what kind of a staff you'd need to watch all the investment-oriented TikToks, YouTube videos, Instagram posts, X posts, Bluesky posts....etc. Maybe this is an area an AI could help with? https://lnkd.in/esFQ8eFR

16

3 Comments

This was an interesting one to dive deeper into. Blue Owl Capital will seek to replicate its latest continuation fund transaction as a means of providing liquidity to investors within its GP stakes funds. The vehicle was not structured as a traditional secondaries transaction as the backers of the continuation fund are not traditional secondaries firms or fund investors. Rather, they are long-term yield oriented, Private Equity International understands. https://lnkd.in/dfcGr6WD

19

One Way Ventures, a Boston-based venture capital firm that only backs companies with at least one immigrant founder, is now raising a $60 million third fund. The planned third fund is roughly the same size of its $57.5 million predecessor, which closed in 2021. #Boston #tech #news #massachusetts #venturecapital #venturefund #startups #fundingalert #immigration #fundingnews

46

Should private markets look more like public markets? In this Citywire interview with the supremely knowledgeable Selin Bucak, we discuss the different angles of the private markets wealth push. Where should private markets and public markets intersect? I think it should intersect more in the execution and infrastructure than it should in trying to fit a "square peg in a round hole." "I'd almost want this space to think about looking more like public markets in the execution, where there's the ability to press a 'buy button' and then alternatives are a piece of a portfolio than have it look more like public markets from a product perspective where you're trying to combine private-public products, which I also think will happen." Listen to the entire interview on Citywire, link below. Alt Goes Mainstream https://lnkd.in/exKH3y3V

57

6 Comments

Have you heard of AREA15? It's hard to explain it, CEO Winston Fisher said when he met earlier this week. He described Area15 as a "storytelling company," as "metaverse comes to life," as a "location-based entertainment platform." We chatted about why he started the company, how it's grown and what's next, which includes raising capital to help expand the business. Area15 is currently independently operated, owned by Fisher Brothers and an unnamed minority partner. "It's really hard to create a brand. We've created a brand that's also creating sub-brands. So we're really trying to find strategic partners who appreciate that this is a really big idea," Fisher says. More details on Axios Pro:

15

Where upside lies: Fund managers still see growth pockets in industrials 🛠️Most capital goods stocks, or industrials, are hovering near their 52-week highs. Still, they witnessed the greatest traction among all sectors in May. MFs flocked to the industrials, investing the most in the sector during the month while FIIs too, funnelled the highest capital into the sector. 🛠️The BSE Capital Goods index currently trades at a price to earnings (P/E) multiple of 58.5 times, significantly above its five-year average P/E of 37.92 times, Bloomberg data showed. In fact, several index constituents are tad shy of hitting fresh 52-week highs. 🛠️As long as order inflow visibility remains strong, there will be sustained earnings delivery and hence relatively strong valuations, said Priyankar Biswas, CFA of BNP Paribas. “Given the multiple sector growth outlook, we may not expect near-term moderation of investor appetite for the space despite the valuations,” he said, adding that considering the visibility of order inflows till FY30, there is still headroom to be constructive on the space. 🛠️“We think the sector valuation may adjust overtime and there may be some time correction,” said Saion Mukherjee of Nomura. Given the strong narrative, he believes a deep correction is unlikely. 🛠️“The sector's rapid re-rating has outpaced earnings upgrades, with valuations soaring,” said Nitin Arora of Axis Mutual Fund. If the earnings growth continues, one might look at increasing exposure to the capital goods sector, he added. 🛠️The only indicators that might prompt a reduction in exposure to this sector would be risks to revenue and earnings growth for the companies within it, highlighted Sorbh Gupta of Bajaj Finserv Asset Management Ltd. 🛠️ Deepak Shenoy of Capitalmind finds industrial companies in the manufacturing space particularly attractive. He prefers firms with strong momentum, low debt, and significant expansion potential. With that in mind, he likes sectors such as defence, railways, shipbuilding, transformers, and power transmission lines and equipment. Read here the complete article here: https://lnkd.in/d7ENs9rG

15

Portfolia just announced the launch of its third Rising America fund, this time accompanied by the firm's first vehicle specifically for institutional large checks. Fund lead investor Juliana Garaizar told me that Rising America Funds I and II have performed so well that she and the other lead investors "thought it would be foolish not to take advantage of this and mirror the fund with a qualified fund so that family offices and everyone else can take advantage of this." The firm's Rising America fund series invests in early-stage companies overlooked by other VCs, typically led by women, people of color and members of the LGBTQ+ community. "These funds are amazing and I think one of the reasons is because these companies are overlooked, their valuations are not that high because of that, which is part of the reason we grow as we have," Juliana told me. Read more on Venture Capital Journal. #venturecapital https://lnkd.in/e7br_ZjM

6

Great to participate as a speaker at the Private Wealth Management Summit in Boston, brilliantly organized and developed by marcus evans Summits. Impeccable organization, great names participating and fantastic topics. #geopolitics #wealthmanagement #privatewealth #investmentfunds #politicalanalysis #trade #nearshoring #decoupling

18

I think Adams Street Partners are spot on in this very thoughtful piece! · Rising interest rates are creating headwinds for buyout portfolios · Leverage reliant GP's returns are to be negatively impacted · GPs focusing on scaling via earnings growth are more likely to outperform · Sellers should rein in their valuation expectations What does this mean for PE market like #ASEAN where returns are inherently #growthdriven? Rather simplistically put, higher interests rates are levelling the playing field between Developed Markets (DM) and Emerging Markets (EM) The more returns need to rely on growth, the more regions or countries with strong GDP growth fundamentals become attractive. Granted there are many more nuances that come into play, but one could hardly argue that for the last decade+, low rates and generous leverage packages have supercharged returns in DMs. Unlevered EM businesses needed to grow earnings 3 to 4x faster than DM peers to just match the returns, quite a tall order even in booming economies. With a more "normalised" rate environment, portfolios would benefit from regionally diversified exposures to growth and we believe #ASEAN displays the most promise! #CollyerCapital #CCPL #LeveragedReturns #GrowthReturns #Buyout #interestrates https://lnkd.in/g9xDCjMY

41

1 Comment

Great analysis of recent #vc trends. Thank you Kaela Roeder and Technical.ly for including my thoughts in the piece. My "expanded" two cents below for anyone curious... It is easy to get excited by what is happening in venture capital these days given the advent of AI. However, for early-stage startups, the numbers tell a more nuanced story. Early-stage deal volume in Q4-2023 was down 66% from the peak (Q4-2021) and a quarter of the deals were down rounds. In 2024, volumes stayed fairly flat relative to 2023 levels (signalizing a normalization to pre-pandemic VC activity) and 32% of deals were down rounds in Q1 (a worsening since year end). Early-stage valuations have spiked back up this year – a pleasant boon for some founders. But, this inflation is largely driven by the excitement around AI and strong demand for capital-efficient, high-growth companies. Many startups have tried to become “dot AI” businesses overnight; however, such tactics are not the “silver bullet” to fundraising challenges and growth. With limited time and capital, funds are on the hunt for companies with bulletproof fundamentals or those with exponential growth potential. If you don’t check one of these two boxes, the VC world looks fundamentally different for you. Locally, there are some positive tailwinds. The D.C. area has outpaced other metro areas in adding AI jobs due in large part to the defense industry and an increasing number of tech companies opening-up federal outposts. Over the long-term, this will be very positive for D.C. startup growth and talent.

29

2 Comments

Hedge Funds Have an Election Plan: Sell the Calm, Buy the Chaos ** Smart money unloaded tech shares by the most on record in June ** “Managers need to have some powder dry for potential dislocations around the US election,” said Jon Caplis, chief executive officer of hedge fund research firmPivotalPath. How’s this for an election trade? Sell your winners now so you have cash on hand this fall to do some aggressive buying as the political jockeying heats up. That’s precisely what hedge funds have been doing since May, even as the market continued to set records. Their net leverage, which is often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite, fell to 54% in early July, the lowest level since January, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage desk. Hedge funds are now underweight technology, media and telecom by the most on record after spending two months unloading the best performing stocks in the market. This, however, is not a bearish trade. Rather, the so-called smart money is gearing up for a wild presidential campaign, and the funds want cash ready to be deployed immediately as stock market volatility rises and share prices start to swing. While the rotation may make sense, and ultimately these stock prices should level off, if they continue to defy gravity and push higher in the short term a “flat squeeze” can emerge, said Frank Monkam, senior portfolio manager at Antimo. In that case, more investors buy in as the anticipated downturn fails to materialize, creating a self-fulfilling cycle of climbing share prices. Full story here, edited by Eric J. Weiner https://lnkd.in/eqwDq4B4

26

Great piece in #PEI, there is indeed a disincentive for sharing "bad news" to investors because, in an already tough #fundraising environment it only makes the hill steeper to climb. This study also confirms the natural bifurcation between better performing "value driver" assets and the lesser ones which tend to vegetate in legacy portfolios for years and pile up in PE's aggregate #AUM year over year. They could still indeed deliver "option value" but most likely not... Because they are in fact overvalued already! #CCPL #CollyerCapital #secondaries #valuations

30

1 Comment

Here’s my weekly roundup of what’s been happening on Citywire Elite Companies, where we track what the world’s best portfolio managers are saying, thinking and buying. Elite Investor Larry Pitkowsky explains how his GoodHaven Capital Management, LLC fund’s dire performance between 2013 and 2019 led him to re-focus on his core principles as a value investor and make big gains. https://lnkd.in/ektwda8n Big-tech stocks such as META Technology Platforms and NVIDIA are hugely popular with many of the top managers whose investments we track, but one Elite Investors, Sean Peche who manages the Ranmore Fund Management Ltd Global Equity fund, reveals why distortions to financial reporting caused by stock-based compensation (SBC) makes him shun them. https://lnkd.in/e-BmrCyZ Our latest hunt for gems among stocks with heavy backing by the worlds’ best managers focuses on finding companies trading at historically low valuations. US health insurers Centene Corporation, CVS Health, Elevance Health and Cigna Healthcare are the standout theme, and their shares could benefit if Trump wins next week's election. https://lnkd.in/eEtupWSC One of the 11 AAA-rated historic bargains our screen has unearthed is UK recruitment firm Hays, which also features in the first part of our review of the ten UK small- and mid-caps that are most popular with the world’s best portfolio managers. https://lnkd.in/ejNEYHuG We’ve taken a deep dive into Arrow Electronics, AAA rated by Citywire based on its popularity with 12 top portfolio managers including recent buyer Larry Pitkowsky. After a sales slump and surge in inventory and debt following the pandemic, the tide may finally be turning while the shares remain at ‘a very attractive price to depressed earnings.’ https://lnkd.in/eHbnZc7x AAA-rated The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is another company recovering from a post-pandemic hit. Sarah Donnelly, a research analyst at Gamco, which manages the Elite 1290 Gamco Small/Mid Cap Value fund that’s a big backer of Scotts, tells us why a rebound that has already seen the share double from lows has further to go. https://lnkd.in/eeey8mNt

11

1 Comment

One of the biotech industry's star investors, the 38-year-old VC firm ARCH Venture Partners, uncorked its 13th fund on Thursday. The Chicago-based firm has another $3 billion to deploy into its large bets on neuroscience, AI, obesity, autoimmune diseases and other areas ripe for more precise treatments. “We’re trying to slow down, but not slowing down because there’s so much cool stuff right now,” managing director Bob Nelsen said Wednesday in an interview with Endpoints News. “Every time we think we’re going to slow down, AI happens or some other thing happens, so it’s an amazing environment to start companies, small ones or big ones, and we do both.” The firm has dished out larger checks and created more startups than most other biotech VC investors over the years. Its current roster includes Xaira Therapeutics, Mirador Therapeutics, Seaport Therapeutics and Metsera among dozens of others. “I’m very hopeful over the next 10 years, and certainly the life of Fund XIII, that we’ll continue to evolve the precision medicine models so that we can better serve patients with lupus, with rheumatoid arthritis, with metabolic disease, cardiovascular disease,” managing director Kristina Burow said in an interview. “Those aren’t just giant, lump diseases. We’re going to start to be able to parse different patients into different medicines.” #biotech #venturecapital #arch #biotechvc #vcfirm #lifesciences

391

1 Comment