Lisa Sloan Walker

📺 Steve Liesman recently gave a good breakdown on the state of retail, the shopper, the economy on Squak Box. 📊 Full National Retail Federation report for March here: https://lnkd.in/eQS8Vm9a 🛍 In short, consumer spending has been surprisingly solid. There is a risk that it drops, but that is not a weakness as of the latest reporting. 💸 That said, one thing which is a struggle for retailers is MARGIN. Labor costs are up and inflation is hitting supply side hard. Consumers are hunting value right now more than usual, so there is a lot of pressure from both sides squeezing out the margin. This makes it most imperative to align limited resource to sources of value as a retailer. 🔎 I have been developing tools and implementing practices with my data team to empower small business retailers to be able to identify and label the diverse customers in their customer base and execute strategy which acquires, develops, and retains high-value. 💡 We can get through this - we've just got to use our data to focus our resources! #usretail #useconomy #retailbusiness #smallbusinessstrategy

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Walmart's Great Value is #1 on this year's #Snack50 Report. In fact, the top 6 brands in this year's report are store brands from the likes of Walmart, ALDI USA, Target, and Amazon. And WMT dropped their new brand, Bettergoods, the same week we released this year's report. Per Numerator, there's major stuff happening in the store brands space, and the pace is accelerating. And because we deal not only in sales data, but consumer psychology, also in the Snack50 Report is a wealth of explanation behind the WHY of consumer and shopper decision-making, a rich forecast of what lies ahead, and the moves marketers can make to address the shifting marketplace. See the overview here... https://lnkd.in/ggz6VyJg Frito-Lay, PepsiCo, Kellanova, The Hershey Company, Mars, Mondelēz International, General Mills, Campbell's, Barcel USA, Blue Diamond Growers, Conagra Brands, Jack Link's Protein Snacks, Feastables, Utz Brands, Inc., ALDI USA, Walmart, Kroger, Target, Amazon, Costco Wholesale, Sam's Club, Perfetti Van Melle, Hormel Foods https://lnkd.in/gCi7kxc3

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U.S. retail sales remained steady through February, yet prices continue to pose a challenge for consumers. Dive into the latest insights on #retail sales from Circana.

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North American tech, durables, home, and auto retailing is going through an analytics and insights revolution with NielsenIQ and the power of GfK - An NIQ Company global capabilities. We are looking at what is happening with small domestic appliances and what the future holds for the rest of 2024.... #NIQandGfK #TheFullView #MovingMeasurementForward #NIQ #GFK #nielseniq #retailanalytics #retailinsights #cpg #cpgindustry #retail #groceryretail #convenience #beverageindustry #quickcommerce #collaboration #future #business #manufacturing #collaboration #connectedcollaboration #media #investments #onlineadvertising #sales #retail #growth #grocery #retailing #technology #sustainability #techanddurables #generalmerch #computing #electronics #devices #IoT #PrivateLabel #ownedBrands #telco #AI #GenAI #AskArthur

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DTC/Digital Native Brands struggle to achieve scale. CPG portfolio's are stagnating. Consumers are trading down, and retailers owned brands are disproportionately growing. Target, Costco, Trader Joes, and Aldi owned brands are winning. Now Walmart has launched a formidable new elevated basics brand, BetterGoods. The best way to beat the Amazon/Temu/Shein/TikTok marketplaces is to sell products they don't have.

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WE ARE IN A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FUNK, BUCKLE UP! When Stalwart Brands Like PepsiCo Trim Revenue Expectations We Should Pay Attention. We are still ducking Covid, two wars, inflation (prices remain high) as do interest rates. Asian markets have slowed down as have their factories. Oil prices are on the rise again. And one report says consumers plan to spend the same amount of money on Halloween (for example) as they did last year. One of the reasons PepsiCo and others are trimming revenue. Consumers are getting less for their money. Which means everything else is expensive and they will not buy more than they can afford. The grip of higher prices and keeping a roof over one’s head and food on the table is a bigger priority than splurging. Retail therapy today is more akin to balancing the home Economics budget and taking care of necessities. #retailing #strategy #ceo #technology #innovation

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Dollar General is enhancing its retail media program by teaming up with solutions provider Criteo. The commerce media platform will work with the retailer's Dollar General Media Network (DGMN) arm to support onsite sponsored ad offerings. Through this arrangement, brand partners can access inventory and campaign execution and utilize Criteo’s self-service demand-side platform. Among other capabilities, brands can leverage DGMN’s inventory within their private market through Criteo’s retailer monetization platform. In addition, the technology enables brands to reach Dollar General’s digital customers who often build lists online before making their weekly in-store purchases. Omnichannel insights will be available for marketers to see if sales are taking place online or in-store. | Progressive Grocer https://lnkd.in/gATgumgr #retail #retailmedia #grocery #shoppers #media #digital

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As we enter Q2 of 2024, I have been asked about key trends relative to the current strength of the consumer in the U.S. Despite headlines showing endless resiliency, we have seen some softness in purchasing behavior on the consumer front, especially in January and February, with a rebound since March.   Q1 also brought dynamic changes in the consumer goods sector's M&A landscape. Key highlights include:   Health Focus: Significant deals like Medbase's acquisition of Zur Rose Group reflect a growing emphasis on health and wellness. Luxury and Efficiency: Firms like Tapestry are strategically acquiring to enhance luxury portfolios and operational efficiency. Tech Integration: Investments in AI and digital capabilities are driving better consumer engagement and operational agility. Strategic Consolidations: Companies are optimizing their portfolios by focusing on core areas and divesting non-core assets. Global Investments: Cross-border M&A remains strong, targeting regions with high growth potential.   Despite economic uncertainties, these trends show the sector's resilience and strategic focus on long-term growth.   #ConsumerGoods #MnA #BusinessStrategy #HealthAndWellness #DigitalTransformation

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As a consumer insights professional, you have to accept you will never understand all of your consumers' behaviors all of the time. For example, there is NEVER ANY REASON TO REACH OVER THE SNEEZE GUARD AT CHIPOTLE. EVER! Even if you are Barack Obama, I can assure you that the worker knows what "pico" or "no corn" or "yes, I know guac is extra" means without your grubby hands reaching into the food area. There is no data or research or analysis that will ever make this understandable or acceptable. #ConsumerInsights #MRX #MarketResearch #Chipotle

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Scott Kessler, EVP and CIO at Schenectady, N.Y.-based Northeast Grocery, the parent company of Price Chopper Supermarkets-Market 32 and Tops Friendly Markets, took to the stage on day two of GroceryTech in Dallas to talk about today's biggest technology-driven trend: GenAI. “GenAI is going to fundamentally change how grocers operate,” he said. “It's going to fundamentally change all industries. There’s a lot of exciting stuff.” He said that technologies in the GenAI space will allow retailers to manage better data, to better capture that knowledge and wisdom, and use it to their advantage. One technology that Kesser specifically mentioned was RAG, or Retrieval Augmented Generation. RAG is the process of optimizing the output of a large language model, so it references an authoritative knowledge base outside of its training data sources before generating a response. Kessler explained that it “takes all of your digital assets and puts them on top of a large language model and then ask questions, general chat, to get really insightful answers. It’s something that's I think everybody's going to eventually have at their fingertips.” | Progressive Grocer https://lnkd.in/gVw6JKGP #retail #supermarkets #artificialintelligence #AI #retailtrends #retailnews #grocery

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The bifurcation of our current economy is eye popping. On one side consumer confidence spiked last month - the Conference Board's October report rose more than 11% (to a reading of 138) - its biggest one-month jump in 3 1/2 years. The last time? March 2021. “Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive,” said Dana Peterson, the board’s chief economist. Wait what? How'd that happen? Conversely you have a BLS Jolts report confirming what #jobseekers already knew - the long awaited"September Surge" was a nothing burger. Hiring rate remained steady at 5.6 million (3.5% rate). There's a breakdown on hires by industry and region in Table 2 of the BLS report (attached in comments). Check it out. You'll see : ➡ Hiring is down overall YoY by 277K jobs in the private sector ➡ The Northeast is lagging with hiring down 15% MoM, ➡ "Professional and Business Services" added 1M hires, however this was 11K fewer than Aug '24 and 4K less than was added in Sept of 23. Newsflash: Employment is definitely not in expansion mode. Also alarming: job openings remained at 7.4M - BUT the number of open roles declined by 1.9M over the year. Thats over 20% fewer open roles than a year ago! ➡ Fewer open jobs without unemployment decreasing = greater competition for what roles there are. Also worth noting: there have been 525,000 fewer quits this year so far. Definitely DO NOT QUIT unless you have something lined up - this market is straight up squid games. Recruiters claim it's the worst employment market in recent memory, and that includes 09-12 (although interest rates went to near zero by end of 2009 which spurred hiring. That won't happen again). Clearly no one at the Conference Board gauging #consumer confidence has spoken to anyone in the #greenbannergang. Nor have they applied to any jobs. Probably haven't met the hundreds I have who are torching a lifetime of savings, dipping deeply into 401Ks, or burning through HELOC money while competing with 500 others for a role that pays 20% less than their last one. On a macro - level, I imagine we'll see some revisions to holiday forecasts, especially in retail. Confident consumers spend. Thats a good sign! Yes, consumer debt is at an all time high, but that's mostly because houses and rent are stupid expensive. (context: In 2000, the median home value in the United States was approximately $119,600. Today in 2024, its $420,400. WTF?) Hopefully the rainbows and unicorns being touted by consumer confidence folks will translate into actual hiring. Otherwise the haves and have nots will continue to erode the economy from the inside out (have jobs or not have jobs). I'll link to BLS report in comments. Here's the CNBC (Cheerleaders, Nothing But Cheerleaders) source article: Also please comment on anything I missed.

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Target didn't just miss on revenue and earnings (20%!)- this was standing in the batters box and flailing wildly at a ball 3 feet off the plate. When you permanently lower prices on 10,000 items (including staples like diapers, bread, and milk), increase same store foot traffic by 2.4% YoY, and still have same store declines of 1.9% - all while your biggest rival, WalMart RAISES their quarterly and annual revenue forecast the day before - retailers and brands would be near criminally negligent not to take notice. Even front running the Holiday sale didn't help. Other take aways for brands to consider: ➡ Forecasting - Target now expects fourth-quarter comparable sales to be approximately flat. ➡ Consumer Demand- lingering softness in discretionary categories / deceleration in discretionary demand ➡ Consumer Strategy- Target offered discounts after hearing from shoppers about “the importance of value and affordability" ➡ Category growth: Customers gravitated toward food and everyday essentials during the quarter, along with beauty items (Comparable sales in beauty grew more than 6%). Two other categories, food & beverage and essentials, posted low single-digit gains compared with the year-ago period. Other Key take aways: ➡ Groceries account for about 60% of Walmart’s U.S. business but only about 23% of Target’s. ➡ "The retailer is contending with savvy and selective shoppers who aren’t willing to buy until the price is right....Consumers have become increasingly resourceful and strategic on how they shop” - TGT Chief Commercial Officer For as long as I can remember, if you're an emerging CPG company getting into Target was the holy grail. The collab with ULTA expanded the Heath and Beauty category and the "Target Shopper" embodied who brands catered to. That strategy appears to have holes - and you can bet when your share price drops by 20% while margins reduced across the board, category buyers will be extra diligent, selective and demanding with their assortments. Unit Velocity and high margin items will carry a premium. The other take away - and this is just my opinion - consumer fatigue has set in and demand is tapering off. I've written about Care Free Carrie and Anxious Anne in recent posts, as well as consumer debt being at an all time high. With Target forecasting a flat Holiday season YoY, brands and retailers need to be prepared and not wait too long to discount. This will be a holiday season driven by bargains.... and there is nothing AI can do about it. Where do you see holiday spending trending this year? #cpg #retail #branding #RetailTrends #ConsumerBehavior #RetailStrategy #ConsumerInsights #EmergingCPG #ConsumerDemand #InflationImpact #HolidayShopping #BrandStrategy #CPGTrends #MarketingInsights #SalesAndMarketing #CategoryGrowth

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I love that Walmart is going to build individualized digital experiences for its shoppers. I think an added layer that would make the consumer more comfortable and happy with this would be allowing them to make some of the decisions as to what they're shown and the aesthetics of it. This is actually one of the ideas I've put forward in our "Future of Retail" presentation that we'll be sharing soon...👀 #ai #generativeai #personalization #customization #omnichannel #digitalexperiences

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RetailStat's Starbucks Fiscal Year-End Report is Out! Starbucks faced weak traffic and a challenging FY24, prompting a leadership shakeup with new CEO Brian Niccol. Revenue grew slightly (+0.6% to $36.18B), but global comparable sales dropped 2%, with China underperforming (-8%). Despite operational pressures, Starbucks maintained strong North American unit volumes ($2.3M per store) and healthy debt metrics. Looking ahead, the Company plans to simplify pricing and enhance the in-store experience. Subscribers can read the full report at retailstat.com #RetailInsights #Starbucks #FY24 #FinancialAnalysis #RetailStat

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Over the past few years I've learned a ton from Matthew Pavich as he lends hisself regularly to talking on the ins/outs of retail pricing with journalists. Here are a few of the latest instances: - “People are making really informed choices. They’re not always going to the bottom...“value is the major story right now. And the goal is to offer value to consumers even more so than price,” - Pavich told Daphne Howland at Retail Dive (https://lnkd.in/gK3bB8bQ) - Economy-based pricing strategies w/Lynn Petrak at Progressive Grocer (https://lnkd.in/gXVNRQcC) - The quiet erosion of unit deterioration and the battle to grow volume (/ market share) during deflationary times w/Alex Vuocolo at Retail Brew (https://lnkd.in/gP7dee_8) - Modern day holiday pricing/promotion strategies w/Dan Berthiaume at Chain Store Age (https://lnkd.in/gFm_VgJF) - Harnessing the power of big data to drive optimal cross-channel sales and loyalty in the furniture sector w/Spencer Musick at Furniture Today (https://lnkd.in/gv__ijet) #retail #retailpricing #pricing #price #pricingoptimization #pricingoptimisation #AI #AIpricing #promotions #economics #retaileconomy #pricingmanagers #merchandising Revionics, an Aptos Company

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In 2023, CPG #PrivateLabels grew dollar and unit sales thanks to the unique confluence of retailers investing in their own brands and consumers facing high inflation 📈🛒. Mary Ellen Lynch, principal of Circana's center store solutions practice, discusses private brand shoppers and what they’re looking for in this new #GrowthInsights episode. 🎧 Listen to the full episode!

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I know this isn't really the point, but I am confident that putting customers' names on the cups with sharpie isn't going to be what bounces Starbucks' numbers back. Our QSR research really emphasized the importance of the app in enabling more efficient and affordable ordering experiences. Bringing down prices, focusing on the quality of the products, and reducing wait times will be the most significant ways brands in this space maintain customers. #unifiedcommerce #omnichannel #qsr #retailstrategy

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Another top-line miss: General Mills General Mills reported today its Q4 results: - Net sales were down 6.4% to $4.71 billion, reflecting unfavorable net price realization/mix and lower pound volume - Those results included a three-point headwind from a comparison against favorable trade expense timing in the prior year, which impacted net price realization and mix - Organic net sales were down 6% to miss the consensus estimate of -3.3%, and slowed from the FQ3 trend - The decline in organic sales was driven by the trade expense timing comparison, a reduction in retailer inventory, and a headwind in international segment results - Volume was 2% lower during the quarter, led by a 6% drop in the North America Retail segment and 7% decline in the Pet segment - Price/mix fell 4% during the quarter, driven lower by a 10% decline in the International segment General Mills expects now 2025 organic sales to be 0% to +1% vs. the consensus estimate of +1.2%. "As we move into fiscal 2025, our top priority is to accelerate our organic net sales growth, and specifically our volume growth, by delivering remarkable experiences across our portfolio of leading brands," stated CEO Jeff Harmening Time to refocus for all on organic (volume) growth Exciting times To read our last publication on how to accelerate organic (volume) growth: 𝗙𝗠𝗖𝗚 𝗖𝗘𝗢𝘀: 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 (𝗩𝗼𝗹𝘂𝗺𝗲) 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗢𝗿 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗧𝗼 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗦𝗵𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗧𝗼 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗿𝘆 - 𝗙𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗭𝗕𝗕 𝘁𝗼 𝗭𝗕𝗚® (𝗭𝗲𝗿𝗼-𝗕𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱-𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵) https://lnkd.in/eV5d39VE 𝗧𝗼 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀, 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘂𝘀 & 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗙𝗠𝗖𝗚 𝗖𝗘𝗢 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿: https://lnkd.in/ea4gy65y #fmcg #cpg Nestlé The Coca-Cola Company PepsiCo AB InBev Unilever Procter & Gamble Mondelēz International Kraft Heinz L'Oréal Danone The HEINEKEN Company Bel Reckitt Kenvue Sanofi Haleon Pernod Ricard Diageo General Mills Campbell's JDE Peet's Carlsberg Group Ferrero Henkel Mars Lindt & Sprüngli Kellanova Shiseido Bayer | Consumer Health https://lnkd.in/ehYwq5sR

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