Asa Fitch

In today’s WSJ China, I write about the parallels between Beijing’s recent economic policy U-turn and the U-turn on zero-Covid. Both point to how Xi’s centralization of power has delayed effective policy response. https://lnkd.in/etQ6w5pb Also we highlight the story by Liyan Qi on China’s most famous red guard. Hope you enjoy reading it! H/T Clarence Leong

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For this podcast, the Confident Retirement, there's a twist: I was the one interviewed, not the one asking the questions. (I like it better the other way - but that was fun - thanks for inviting me on, Kristopher Flammang CRPC®AIF®BFA®) Oh - and I'm not retiring :) Some of the things we talked about: * My early journalism career change to being a juvenile probation office for three years; • Why and how the Business Observer has made a transtions to #digitalfirst — and why we keep the focus on that; and • The lessons I've learned from interviewing hundreds of entrepreneurs ands business owners Take a listen!

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Self-citations exaggerate Chinese research prowess, scholars charge. In this week's Latitudes, a new paper suggests that China’s research preeminence is inflated by a disproptionate tendency among Chinese academics of citing one another’s work. Plus: • A U.S. House committee has voted to restart the China Initiative,  the federal-government investigation of academic and economic ties with China that cast a pall over international research collaborations. • A member of Congress accused Qatar of trying to “buy influence” in American higher education through partnerships with Northwestern University and other instiutions.  Rishi Sunak, the British prime minister, has backed away from a proposal to bar or limit the ability of international students to temporarily work in the U.K. after graduation. #internationaleducation #intled #china #research #highereducation #highered https://lnkd.in/gvydFkxg

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Company executives can’t stop talking about the US election. Anne Cronin and I looked at data from the latest crop of corporate earnings calls and found a sharp spike in mentions of election risk to quarterly profit growth. One CEO called the noise and uncertainty around the polls a "Mad Hatter's tea party." For many captains of industry, the election has joined high interest rates, geopolitics and macroeconomic unease as a new "headwind." That's due in large part to a wait-and-see attitude about potential policy changes among both consumers and companies alike when it comes to big ticket spending. There's also a big distraction factor. As Etsy Inc. CEO Josh Silverman told stock analysts, the nonstop political circus is “an incredibly distracting mind-share event.” Another chief executive noted it's tough to break through as advertising rates are being pushed up by campaign ads flooding airwaves and social media sites. The good news is that it's over now -- at least until 2028 -- and that C-Suite types won't be able to use it anymore as an excuse for missed earnings targets. How much of an impact did the electoral hubbub have on your business? Read all about it here: https://lnkd.in/eCKdmysM #Election2024 #3Q #Headwinds #MadHatterTeaParty

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New review by Zachary Shore of Andrew J. Bacevich's _On Shedding an Obsolete Past: Bidding Farewell to the American Century_. https://lnkd.in/dkEcDV67 "If you ever worry that America is being run by a bumbling mass of venal nincompoops, or fret that American society is slouching toward self-destruction, Andrew Bacevich’s collected essays will provide ample fodder for your fears. _On Shedding an Obsolete Past: Bidding Farewell to the American Century_ is not a work of scholarship, but rather a compilation of learned opinions. Bacevich peppers his pieces with a sprinkle of sarcasm and a dash of venomous invective, pulling no punches, barbs, or jibes as he excoriates the United States’ institutions, most notably its military, media, and political elites. Unfortunately, he has no shortage of material, and not just regarding President Donald Trump, a 'bozo of such monumental proportions as to tax the abilities of our most talented satirists' (129). Bacevich himself might qualify for membership in that club of humorists. When discussing the efforts to impeach the former president, he quips that replacing Trump with Vice President Mike Pence is 'the equivalent of exchanging Groucho for Harpo' (304). But Trump is just the lowest hanging fruit. The author reaches much deeper. Bacevich’s primary concern is with the eight-decade-old paradigm of America as the 'indispensable nation,' a notion he views as dangerously obsolete. As he sees it, a self-reproducing cadre of foreign policy gurus, sometimes called 'the Blob,' has convinced itself that US military dominance and overseas meddling are requirements of a stable world order, one that largely benefits the US. Although this notion does nothing to aid average Americans, it preserves the status of the establishment."

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The incoming #Trump Administration will bring with it a new regulatory outlook for the #bond market. With several #Biden appointees already targeted for dismissal, the expectation is that the White House will have a clear path to revise many existing or planned financial controls. Among them: The U.S. implementation blueprint for the Bank for International Settlements – BIS' final #Basel3 update. Revisions to the financial frameworks of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are back on the table as well, along with a whirlwind of other possible actions. Get the insider details plus other leading-edge news and authoritative statistics on worldwide securitization activities in this week’s issue of Asset-Backed Alert, Green Street News title. https://lnkd.in/euAbgSZb

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My full-length post-mortem analysis of the Question 4 campaign is still in the works, but for the time being here's my 3-tweet takeaway after a few days of reflection: The Question 4 campaign here in Massachusetts, the power players behind it, and the total failure that was Tuesday night’s election are a fascinating microcosm of the foundational ineptitude of the Democratic establishment at large. Case in point: Dewey Square Group (born in 1993) is the faux-progressive brainchild of the Clintonite/neoliberal elite… DSG is a “grass tops” consulting firm: designed to co-opt and repackage populist ideologies into watered down, corporate-friendly Uniparty drivel. Out of touch, glaringly and embarrassingly inept — and yet somehow still clinging to power due to the influence of their largely nepotistic networks and a consistently sharp-elbowed approach to dealing with outsider input. Sound familiar? PS - This is intended as a critique of the political machinations at work, not an attack on or condemnation of the character of any individuals involved.

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Over the summer, we shamelessly begged readers for financial notes puns. Begging bowl set up, we sat back and waited for the content come to us. And a lot did. One discovery is that a lot of you — beloved readers, treasured readers, our wonderful readers — really don’t seem to know the difference between a pun and a joke. Also, you — dear, sweet readers, good-looking, choiceful readers — chose to basically ignore the premise and send us puns (/jokes) from everywhere, not just the sellside. Despite these huge barriers to our efforts to do zero-effort “journalism”, we persisted. Here, in no particular order, are some of the best financial research puns we could find.

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Despite official support for open capital flows, foreign direct investment into the United States has always been controversial – particularly in periods when Americans feel their economic and technological position is under challenge. The national security objection to Nippon Steel’s acquisition bid for US Steel is particularly weak, and reflects the fact that “national security” has become an all-purpose argument, often divorced from what actually enhances or reduces security. Today’s real national security challenge is new technology acquisition; preventing technology leakage is not enough. Inward foreign direct investment is a powerful tool for acquiring and diffusing technology. https://lnkd.in/dKjUZfjs

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Deep dive: Courts started shaping the US presidential race long before Nov. 5. An extraordinary onslaught of cases filed over the past two years have questioned fundamental principles of who can vote, how ballots are cast, which votes count, and how the winner is decided. And they preview issues that could fuel the expected wave of legal action after polls close. https://lnkd.in/gccMDYTm

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From the latest Wide Shot newsletter on Trump and Hollywood: Much of the reaction among show business and technology chief executives has been either explicitly supportive or generally hopeful that the new Republican administration will be more business-friendly, particularly when it comes to taxes, regulation, artificial intelligence and M&A (mergers and acquisitions). In other words, get ready for more consolidation. On the one hand, legacy media is a declining business and is therefore primed for reorganization. Pay-TV bundles are going away. The box office has lost about a quarter of its pre-pandemic annual domestic revenue. Streaming is reaching profitability for many companies, but it has taken much disruption and billions of dollars in losses to get there. On the other hand, many media mergers don’t work out well, particularly for employees. Look at AT&T’s troubled and short-lived stewardship of WarnerMedia... #media #hollywood #streaming #mergersandacquisitions

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You might not have a great feeling about the economy, but you're likely more optimistic than this group. The subreddit r/economiccollapse has seen an uptick in users since the end of 2021, writes Jennifer Sor. The group believes a Soviet Union-type collapse is coming for the US economy. While their speculation might be extreme, there are definite cracks forming in the economy giving investors pause. More on Business Insider #economy #markers #investing

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Excerpt from crisis management expert Helio Fred Garcia’s new book: “The Trump Contagion is my attempt to bear witness to the decision-making that unnecessarily cost so many lives and disrupted life as we knew it. The book demonstrates the American President’s incompetence, dishonesty, and neglect that made the U.S. COVID-19 response the single worst-handled crisis in American history. I believe it is also the single largest failure of leadership in American history.” https://lnkd.in/ezbMAqdB #crisismanagement #covid19

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In today's DealBook: Are investors getting tired of the high cost of A.I.? Meta reported its best-ever first quarter results but its shares tumbled, wiping $200 billion of its market capitalization — and serving as a warning to other Big Tech groups that are spending big on A.I. Elsewhere: I look at a mining megadeal that's all about the green transition; and Lauren Hirsch on how companies are thinking about getting round a ban on noncompete agreements. https://lnkd.in/gUCJxsyV

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Large #privateequity firms are weighing the possibility of buying the catalogs of YouTube content creators and securitizing their shares of #advertising revenues – creating an entirely new type of asset-backed bond deal. The #strategy is still early in development but already involves several of the #streaming service’s biggest personalities. Get the exclusive details plus other leading-edge news and authoritative statistics on worldwide securitization activities in this week’s issue of Asset-Backed Alert, a Green Street News title. https://lnkd.in/euAbgSZb

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Now that the dust has mostly settled, here's what Oxford Economics sees our economic outlook. Keep your eyes open for new OE forecasts in the coming weeks!

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