I'm very pleased to have won the Australian Marketing Institute / ANZMAC Industry Relevance Award for best paper published in AMJ in 2024, for:
"Examining the Longitudinal Association Between Positive and Negative Likelihood-to-Recommend Scores and Brand Growth"
This is second year in a row, after winning the award for another study about Net Promoter in 2023.
here's the abstract: basically, word of mouth metrics do not seem to be a lead indicator of growth ........
If you run ads only on one channel - Meta, Amazon, Google Search, TikTok - is it OK to rely on last-click attribution? How wrong can the results be?
The answer: Potentially 100%.
The issue is that the rules of causal inference and math do not change for smaller companies or if you only use 1 or 2 media channels. Selection effects can completely mislead you, even for a single channel, as shown in my IAG case study example shared recently: https://lnkd.in/geQ9ysFi
Now, the risk of being 100% wrong is much smaller if you are a lesser-known brand and only operate online.
However, the issue is - incrementality still matters. Customers may convert anyway if they know your website after their first purchase, heard about your great product from a friend (offline word of mouth), or remember you and then Google you later and convert.
As a result, last-click or last-touch attribution inflates allocated attributions and suggests a very inaccurate CPA. Maybe you're only wrong by 40-70% in terms of absolute CPA, but this still matters when every dollar counts for SMEs or startups.
This becomes even more critical as soon as you start comparing two campaigns for the same platform - maybe one prospecting and one retargeting campaign, both running on Facebook.
Last-click/ touch will typically tell you to invest more and more in retargeting as the CPA will always look better here. Even when this primarily shows ads to anyway-converters.
So, are there situations where last-click attribution can be correct?
Yes, but these are rare and usually for a short period of time: when you sell to your very first customers.
What can you do instead?
Well, experimentation is free (and fun). The main costs are opportunity costs, which are just learning costs and an important investment in the future.
For example, you can always vary your single channel or tactic and simply compare sales:
🔁Switchback experiments: we turn a tactic on and off every second day.
🌍Geo-tests: select some regions where you turn off one tactic.
📊A/B tests: Most platforms also have A/B test functions (some randomized, others optimized ones) that you can use. See:
Meta - Conversion Lift and A/B Testing https://lnkd.in/gr6nyg7m and https://lnkd.in/gTip8uJ9
TikTok - Split Test https://lnkd.in/gaCiZ-G7
Amazon - A/B Test and Brand Lift https://lnkd.in/gF2YBmsN and https://lnkd.in/g5KDzgek
Google - Conversion Lift https://lnkd.in/gWCYnwsu
Trade Desk - Conversion Lift https://lnkd.in/gWBaaGdS
While it’s tempting to rely on last-touch and last-click attribution as a default starting point for a company’s measurement journey, let’s not encourage people to trust a broken clock.
With all the free alternatives available, there’s no reason not to move on to more reliable marketing effectiveness measurement as soon as possible.
Attribution should not be a battle for credit.
The real purpose of attribution in marketing is to understand how much incremental growth you're driving to the business from your marketing efforts.
Anytime someone in the company asks about attribution, what they are really trying to get at is hey, that thing that we did ... did it cause the business outcome of more sales?
Nothing else matter.
Listen to Pranav Piyush and this masterclass on thinking about Marketing Attribution.
Search for B2B marketing with Dave Gerhardt or Exit Five podcast everywhere you listen and you can get this masterclass on marketing measurement on the go right now ...
Marketing is a dynamic, multi-faceted discipline. It covers the #product, #content, demand generation #campaigns, and so much more.
So no wonder there is so much confusion - and in-fighting - about WHO DOES WHAT.
For instance:
🤔 Who decides product market fit and messaging?
🤔 Which team should take the lead when launching a new feature?
🤔 Who chooses what content should be created and how to distribute it?
🤔 Which department creates case studies?
🤔 Who owns thought leadership?
And don't get me started on how we should MEASURE each of these teams.
That's why The Juice has invited Pranav Piyush, Co-Founder and CEO of Paramark.com to break down the roles and responsibilities of each team in a livestream taking place NEXT MONDAY, August 26 at noon (ET).
Link to attend is in the comments.
Offline Advertising Works! 🌟
It is a little trickier to measure but I've found a great trick is to run it ONLY in a select few cities. Then use similar sister cities or the rest of the USA as the control groups.
Run brand awareness surveys in the cities that got the offline advertising as well as in the cities that didn't get the advertising. Measure and show the impact.
And bonus, another trick is to ask your ops team (Marketings ops, rev ops, finance ops,) to bring up lead and pipeline for the same cities and control groups.
You'll find that often a BRAND campaigns via offline ads will also impact LEADS/PIPELINE.
This is where control groups can shine. In the above if you just used last touch attribution you would find the demand gen interest harvesters ads would claim a lot of credit for this campaign.
Do you believe in testing and measuring offline ads? Give this post a thumbs up! 👍
#MarketingStrategy#OfflineAdvertising#BrandAwareness#GrowthHacking#SaaSCMOPro
Marketing measurement alone isn't going to solve your growth problems!
I know this is obvious but it's worth repeating. Measurement, attribution, incrementality, experimentation... they're great tools but without a constant stream of creative ideas, they're useless.
So, please please please, work with your marketing teams on fostering creativity.
Do you like talking about...
🛠 Building models that truly reflect your biz reality
🔍 Quantifying incremental impacts to sharpen your strategies
🔗 Discovering causal links with smart experimentation
🌈 Crafting forecasts for all scenarios, rain or shine
🦄 Elevating your decision-making with actionable tools
Come be a part of a dynamic conversation with me and Pranav Piyush next Tuesday (June 4) at 1pm ET/10am PT. Bring your questions too!
Link to Unlocking the Secrets to Measuring Your Marketing Impact in the comments.
#analytics#attribution#marketingmeasurement#marketo#hubspot#salesforce#pardot#marketing#mops
Bringing science back! 👨🔬 👩🔬
Over the last 15 years, on my path to becoming a marketer, I've always been seeking truth in the field.
I noticed that the signal to noise ratio was pretty low. Lots of interesting opinions. Few facts or evidence.
When we started Paramark, we made a commitment to celebrate and amplify the science of marketing.
In Sep 23, we launched our blog. Today, we're taking the second step.
We're launching The Marketing Scientists, a new podcast!
Academics, practitioners, and innovators are all trying to better understand how marketing works. In this show, we'll uncover what they're learning and how you can apply these principles to improve your work.
So, please search for The Marketing Scientists on your favorite podcast app.
Thanks to Seth Matlins, Shirin Oreizy, Kishore Kothandaraman, Tido Carriero, Barbara Galiza, Austin Hay, Maya Spivak, Mustafa Ibrahim, Omer Malchin, and Mark Huber who joined us for the first 10 episodes.
Many more to come!
P.S. The science of marketing is a rich domain - from behavioral science, to measurement, to experimentation, to machine learning and AI.