The Systems Thinker: Essential Thinking Skills For Solving Problems, Managing Chaos,

The Systems Thinker

Essential Thinking Skills For Solving Problems, Managing Chaos,

Albert Rutherford

ARB Publications

Copyright © 2021 Albert Rutherford. All rights reserved.

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First Printing, 2018.

ISBN: 9781723958144

Printed in the United States of America

Published by Kindle Direct Publishing

Email: [email protected]

Contents

A Gift for You

Introduction

1. Where Is Systems Thinking Coming From?

2. Quick Systems Overview

3. Mental Models

4. Systems Essentials

5. Examples Of One And Two-Stock Systems

6. Systems Archetypes

7. Systems Thinking in Social Matters

8. A Comprehensive Study on Systems Thinking and a Social Issue

9. A Warm up exercise

Playing and Designing a Game

A Language Game

SPOT

Simon Says

Conclusion

Reference

Notes

A Gift for You

Click here for your FREE GIFT: The Art of Asking Powerful Questions in the World of Systems

Introduction

It isn’t what we know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so. – Will Rogers

As humans, we are brilliant beings. This can be both a blessing and a curse. There are times when we revert to our teenage ways and think we know everything we need to about life when nothing could be further from the truth. If there is anything my time on Earth has taught me, it is how little I really know. I was responsible for educating adults and helping them get their start in the world until recently. I am acutely aware I couldn’t teach my students everything they will need to know in their lives. The best I could hope for was to give them a thirst for knowledge and a love of learning, to inspire them to be lifelong learners. I planted the seeds of open-mindedness in their developing frontal lobe to receive and analyze new information even when it differs from their beliefs. I gave them the tools they need to find and recognize good reputable sources.

Many people think they have everything figured out and know all the answers. Take the Nazca civilization, for example. ¹ They thrived in the desert ecosystem of southern Peru between 100 BC and 800 CE. Then they disappeared about 1500 years ago. While their disappearance has been a mystery, scientists now theorize that the choices they made as a civilization ultimately lead to their destruction. These tragic choices could have been avoided with a bit of humility and critical thinking.

The Nazca civilization lived in the desert where there was a delicate balance between living things that ensure survival. Despite having built a strong and successful civilization, they made a fateful decision that led to their decline. Their environment was home to the Prosopis pallida or huarango tree. This fantastic plant helped the soil to be more fertile and better able to hold in moisture. As well as support the irrigation system the Nazca had built. The huarango tree had the deepest roots of any tree in their area, which helped hold the soil in place and keep it from being eroded by rivers and wind. Also, as with all living things, it was part of nature’s delicate balance.

The Nazca civilization’s aforementioned fateful decision was to become an agricultural society. This may seem like a sound decision, but it led to a chain of unfortunate events. They made the transition to agriculture rather quickly, cutting down many of the huarango trees to make way for planting crops like cotton and maize. The mass eradication of the trees resulted in the decline of the natural benefits they had to offer. When storms like El Niño brought floods, their roots were not there to help hold the soil in place. The irrigation system didn’t work well as the trees weren’t there to keep the needed moisture in the soil to help their crops grow. The fertility of the soil gradually deteriorated. The Nazca were no longer successful in growing their crops. Food became scarce, there was not enough to feed everybody, so their civilization slowly disappeared as their people starved. ²

One can’t help but wonder if the Nazca had understood the science of the huarango trees and considered the long-term consequences of their choices, they might have made different decisions that would not have led to such a devastating outcome. ³

The story of the Nazca civilization, while is tragic, is not unique. The history of planet Earth is rich with extinction stories and with choices that led to those extinctions. Again, we are brilliant beings. This sometimes is a blessing; other times, it is a curse. Usually, it is a curse for different species and generations who come after the perpetrators of environmental change. One man is not likely to see the long-term consequences of his actions in his lifetime.

How could the simple farmer of Mesopotamia or Mesoamerica know his accounting system and keeping track of his crops would result in e-books? How could the ancient scientist know that his experiment with metal alloys would result in the atomic bomb? To see the long-term impacts of these changes, thousands of years had to pass, and additional developments had to be made.

Life accelerated in the modern age. Thanks to science and engineering, changes have revealed themselves faster. For instance, biochemical and biological engineering helped increase the quantity of food available. Norman Borlaug was an agricultural researcher. He developed a high-yield type of wheat. It was so successful in Mexico, India, and Pakistan that it earned him the Nobel Peace Prize for preventing more than a billion people from starvation. ⁴ Genetic engineering has helped produce food at higher yields and promised a better life for our children. Physicists can create nuclear power to supply energy to our homes.

Let’s take a closer look at the timeline of these innovations. The first biological engineering program started in 1966 at the University of California, San Diego. Genetic engineering, as we know it, being a direct manipulation of DNA by humans, has only existed since the 1970s. The first nuclear power plant opened its gates in 1954, in Obninsk, USSR.

We feel the benefits of these innovations today, even though they happened in our lifetime (the lifetime of fossils like me). What’s even more impressive is that we have already started feeling the secondary impact of some of these innovations.

Pesticides created by biochemical engineering have killed pests only in the short term, allowing many to develop resistance. And at the same time, the number of other, untargeted insects such as wild bees dropped significantly. ⁵ Norman Borlaug, who has been considered the father of modern agriculture, got a lot of criticism from environmentalists and nutritionists. The Green Revolution produced many adverse side effects, such as increased cancer rates in rural areas, water, soil depletion, and fossil fuel dependence. ⁶ Due to the heat nuclear reactors release, the spawning pattern of fish in the affected areas has changed.

Not only science and engineering-related changes have accelerated to show their primary and secondary impact. Social, political, and economic changes operate at a higher speed too. It took hundreds of years to switch from a hunter-gatherer lifestyle to an agricultural-based society for our ancestors. How many years did it take to create a society where we can’t imagine living without high-speed internet? Ten? I don’t even want to talk about internet as a stand-alone term anymore. Could you imagine going back to dial-up? How have these developments affect us so fast? How did they affect the environment? And more importantly, what are the changes and consequences that are most likely to happen in the next twenty, fifty, or one hundred years? Future generations are all going to have kyphosis because we spend all our time hunched over the phone. I don’t even dare thinking about a more distant future.

Had I been imagining the next hundred years in 1918, I would have never guessed what today would look like.

Traditionally, we have been taught to look at things in a linear analytical fashion to search for clear cause-and-effect relationships. If the car runs out of gas, the car stops. Easy, right? But how could we explain with the same logic the multidisciplinary changes nuclear power plants create? How could we tell that if the nuclear reactor releases heat, the spawning habits of fish will change? Can we explain this phenomenon purely through biology? Or chemistry? Or physics? No, we can’t give a proper explanation with a reductionist, mono-disciplinary approach.

Systems thinking is a paradigm shift in the way we view the world. A system is a group of things that are interconnected and demonstrate their own behavior pattern over time. When we think in systems, we slow down and dig deeper, finding solutions and explanations to given phenomena. Systems thinking encourages us to look at events and patterns in our lives and around us; to focus our attention on the connection and relationship between the system’s parts instead of only looking at the individual parts in isolation.

Systems thinking leads us from trying to come up with a quick fix to a problem in favor of considering the long-term consequences our actions may cause. It supports a deeper level of understanding than we typically take the time to seek.

In our fast-paced and complex society, the information we think we know can quickly become obsolete. We have to be open and receptive to new knowledge in science and technology and be willing to view it through our systems thinking lens. This way, we can rid ourselves of false information. We can be ready to face the future armed with the most accurate information available and make a more precise prognosis for the