Swetha Gopinath

At $776.6 billion, worldwide issuance of securitized products over the first three quarters of 2024 marked a 42.8% jump from a year earlier – putting the market on track for its first $1 trillion year since 2021. But a healthy dose of that supply came from issuers that accelerated their funding activities to precede any turbulence that might accompany that upcoming presidential #election, which could suggest a loss of momentum. And additional headwinds are developing. Among them: A consensus is forming that #interestrates won’t fall as much as previously predicted, which already is manifesting in higher bond #yields. Get exclusive insights on market participants’ expectations for the coming quarter – and the dangers they’ll be monitoring – in this week’s issue of Asset-Backed Alert, a @Green Street News title. https://lnkd.in/euAbgSZb

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Barclays Global Head of Debt Capital Markets Meghan Graper will join me for an interview at Reuters NEXT on Tuesday. We'll discuss the lively debt markets this year and what's ahead for 2025. Check out our lineup of newsmakers: https://lnkd.in/eG8pV2sC #geopolitics #finance #climate #technology #ReutersNEXT

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Match Group forecast fourth-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates on Wednesday, signaling that a turnaround of its dating apps including Tinder would take longer and sending shares of the company down more than 13% in extended trading. The company also missed third-quarter revenue estimates. Smaller rival Bumble Inc., meanwhile, posted its first decline in quarterly sales since going public in 2021 and also said it would take longer for its app revamp to payoff. (Read: https://shorturl.at/pkfr0) Match's weak results could give activist investors including Starboard Value, Elliott Investment Management and Anson Funds Management more ammunition in their efforts to spur change at the company that has been grappling with slow growth for two years. The company expects revenue between $865 million and $875 million for the fourth quarter, compared with analysts' average estimate of $905.4 million, according to data compiled by LSEG. In the third quarter, total paying users declined 3% to 15.2 million, marking an eight straight quarter of decline. #Tinder #Hinge #DatingApps #Bumble

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Great to speak with Nick Del Deo about the outlook for tower and data centre stocks in the US. We speak about the impact of rate cuts, slowing 5G rollouts and the implication on towercos and how protected data centre stocks are from a souring on AI Read all here!

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European debt collectors have been hit by a range of challenges, notably higher interest rates, which pushed their funding costs much higher. Some have emerged relatively unscathed, but others look shaky. Double-B rated B2 Impact successfully priced €200 million of notes last week. Meanwhile, Intrum and iQera have taken the first steps in the restructuring of their debt. See my article on PitchBook #leveragedfinance #highyield #specialsituations

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Unlike the eurozone, Britain’s economy is holding steady and does not seem to need an immediate boost from lower interest rates. Unlike the US, British unemployment is not climbing so quickly that the BoE felt compelled to act. And unlike Australia, UK inflation is cooling enough to get markets betting that the BoE can and will cut rates again this year.

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Investors ought to think very hard before voting in favour of share buyback mandates. I sometimes wonder if they are just giving companies a licence to punt around in the market. What purpose does it really serve? Here’s the latest #MarkToMarket column, which ran in today’s edition of #TheBusinessTimes: https://lnkd.in/ggSyXt6T

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Charles Paikert has these blunt comments about the recent unhappy experience by Goldman Sachs in the #RIA space. He points to the central argument - size of AuM - and finds it wanting. This is definitely a commentary where we would be interested in feedback, particularly from those who want to disagree. Jamie McLaughlin David DeVoe ECHELON Partners Chip Roame Stephen Harris Philip Harris Andrew Deane Rachel Fokes Theodora Viney Joseph Reilly #strategy #wealthmanagement #mergers https://lnkd.in/eu3iddV9

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Barclays has a policy to stop financing companies that earn over 50% of revenues from coal-fired power generation. But last year the bank helped raise nearly $2bn in loans for US companies that appear to exceed that threshold, a new investigation by Josephine Moulds, in partnership with ITV News, has found: https://lnkd.in/e74RRsUM (Joel Hills & Mahatir Pasha's great take is here: https://lnkd.in/e525b27m) The companies we looked at mostly sell the electricity they generate themselves, and generate most of that electricity from coal (for one, the share was 95%). Yet, this isn't a breach of policy, and doesn't constitute a loophole (be it "enormous", as Seth Feaster of Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) described, or otherwise) the bank told us. Parties agreed at last year's COP climate talks that developed countries must end power generation from coal by 2030. Bob Ward from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change & the Environment said: "there’s no excuse for propping up the American coal industry... If you are generating most of your income from burning coal and then distributing the electricity results, then that’s the coal. That’s the coal industry. You’re damaging the climate. And that is what Barclays said they would stop."

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ARTICLE: LPs have embraced secondaries to rebalance portfolio exposure across strategies, geographies, vintages and funds. They can now securitize positions via structured portfolios traded on the bond market. GPs are using direct secondaries, continuation funds and “strips” of portfolios to generate liquidity when exit markets sputter (as they’re doing today). Tools are also available to raise cash for firm-level objectives such as succession management or expansion.

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It is always insightful and enlightening to sit down with Chris Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies . And what a day to speak to one of the most influential voices on market strategies, as the Fed has finally turned the corner. Here are my takeaways from the man who understands and articulates Greed & Fear best in every market scenario. 50 BPS CUT IS POLITICAL Surprised by the 50 bps rate cut. It is contrary to the Fed's messaging going in. The 50 bps cut, at the margin, is driven by politics. The majority of the Fed doesn't want Trump as President. The rate cut may help Democrats in the elections at the margin. The Fed thinks the US economy is okay, so the motivation is political. US ECONOMY IS GOOD (FOR NOW) US monetary tightening is just starting to bite. All it takes for markets to price in 50 bps at every meeting is one bad jobs report. FED CUTS HELP EM EQUITIES Fed cuts should be good news for EM equities. Many EMs chose not to cut rates, worried about their currencies while the Fed was hiking. Fed easing allows many EMs to cut interest rates. A clear weakening cycle in the dollar is good for EMs. WILL RBI FOLLOW THE FED? RBI has been counter-cyclical and will likely cut interest rates later this year. RBI will come under criticism if it doesn't cut rates before the end of the year Watch here : https://lnkd.in/dTVGvbch. #fedratecut #stocks #greedandfear #chriswoods #rbi

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It's out! Brand-new Financial Times data visualisation project, explaining how private equity entangled banks in a web of debt. “There should not be a pocket of the market that touches on so much of the economy in such a sizeable way, where we can say, oh there’s leverage, and then very few of us can explain what that leverage means and why it might — or might not — be risky”, says Victoria Ivashina, of Harvard Business School Story by Ortenca Aliaj, Sam Joiner, Sam Learner, Irene de la Torre Arenas, William Louch & I https://lnkd.in/gVKvAuEh

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Domestic Investors Stake N1.335trn In Equities In Q1 https://ift.tt/bsdjotg Total transactions by domestic portfolio investors in the stock market rose by 86.23 per cent as they invested a total value of N1.335 trillion in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024. The domestic investors have continued to hold ground on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited despite rising inflation and currency volatility in the foreign exchange market as they were major drivers of the Domestic & Foreign Portfolio Investment. This was contained in the Domestic and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) March 2024 report. The Domestic and Foreign Portfolio Investment Report is prepared on a monthly basis by NGX Regulation Limited, with trading figures from market operators on their Domestic and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) flows. These transactions are carried out by Domestic and Foreign investors. Total transactions at the nation’s bourse from January to March 2024 stood at N1.548 trillion as against N530.23 billion in the corresponding period of 2023. Foreign transactions stood at N213.18 billion, accounting for about 13.77 per cent of the total transactions carried out, while domestic transactions constituted N1.335 trillion, outperforming the foreign investment during the same period. Analysis of domestic transactions showed that domestic retail transactions pulled N670.89 billion investment, while institutional investors’ investment amounted to N663.87 billion in Q1, 2024. Analysts have noted the foreign exchange backlog, among other factors responsible for foreign investors staying clear from the Nigerian stock market. They observed that the high local investors participation in the market is good for the local bourse, saying that this has restored credibility and stability to the market, which was hitherto marred by volatility occasioned by the activities of foreign investors. Meanwhile, the CBN in March 2024 announced that it has successfully cleared all valid foreign exchange backlogs, effectively eliminating a legacy burden. This accomplishment fulfils a commitment made by CBN Governor, Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, who vowed to address an inherited backlog of $7 billion in claims. Analysts at Cordros Securities Limited said, “we believe the prospect of FPIs returning to the market is a key factor to monitor in 2024. Foreign investors’ interest in the Nigerian equities market has remained weak due to difficulty in accessing and repatriating funds. They said, “we expect domestic investors to continue to dominate the domestic equities market over the short-to-medium term, even as higher fixed income (FI) yields may constrain buying activities. “At the same time, we expect to see improvement in foreign participation over the medium term, even as foreign investors are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach in the near term. Our expectation is hinged on the policy pronouncements and reforms by the current administration, undoing the polic...

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Itemised bill for Altice; MyTravel Plans Altice France’s cleansing statement for the French telecom group’s and senior secured creditors “final proposals” shows the bid/ask between the two sides has narrowed significantly. Frustratingly, the headline terms don’t give enough detail - it's tantalizingly close - for us to do a full valuation analysis to ascertain the size of the pie being divided. But we can assess some of the value drivers and value allocation at a high level, and identify the known unknowns. While the parties are close on debt reinstatement and debt terms, they are some way apart on equity splits and treatment of the junior debt. The EMEA Special Sits Weekly picks apart likely EV multiples, equity values and how a deal could be implemented, and in addition: We also highlight the importance of the MyTravel ruling on the treatment of out-of-the-money creditors in English Schemes and now RPs. This comes into sharp relief with the upcoming Thames Water UK RP, with the Relevant Alternative as a Special Administration, which none of the stakeholders want and destroys value for everyone - should a going concern valuation be a better comparator? And while we are at it, is the lack of a competitive DIP financing process, another deficiency for the UK RP? For non-Octus subscribers, DM if you want a copy/trial

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Rachel Reeves's speech today was short on policy, as one might expect from a party conference, and heavy on priorities like industrial investment and growth. No great moves in markets at all in response. Really, however, this is just the start of the road to the budget in October. That's when the detail on policy will come for investors to digest and assess, with today much more about trying to raise the gloomy mood. Between now and then, the challenge will be ensuring investors think the plans are credible to keep the brightening view toward the UK that's emerged recently on track. That, plus the pound, positivity on UK retailers and a new offer for Rightmove in Markets Today #rachelreeves #markets #economy #uk https://lnkd.in/euH6QP23

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🚨 Market Alert: Why Experts Advise 'Wait and Watch' Instead of 'Buy the Dip' 🚨 As global uncertainties send shockwaves through the markets, experts are recommending a cautious approach. My latest article dives deep into why now might not be the best time to jump back in despite recent declines.📉🔍 #MarketAnalysis #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning #GlobalEconomy #StockMarket #InvestorAdvice https://lnkd.in/gti8FQBC

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New Trader TV This Week - Hopes of ‘turning point’ in European equities and navigating rising concentration at the close   Paul Squires, head of trading for EMEA and APAC at Invesco EMEA, discusses the main events that could influence trading activity this week and provides his take on the liquidity conditions across European #equities. In this episode, he looks at:   🌍 The “dearth” of European #IPOs yet with some positive signs emerging 📈 Reasons behind the growing concentration of #trading activity at the close 💧 Thecimpact of this concentrated event on intraday #liquidity 🕰 His take on the debate around shortening trading hours in Europe   In the extended show, only available to our audience that signs up to Trader TV’s mailing list, Squires also covers more on the trading hours debate and whether he thinks we’ll ever see the institutional space move to 24/7 trading. If you didn’t sign up for Trader TV’s newsletters and wish to access the full interview, reach out to [email protected]. Check it out! The show also includes rates data from MTS Markets. #trading #capitalmarkets #equities #liquidity #theclose #IPOs

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Should we all be investing in artificial intelligence? Ben Rogoff, manager of the Polar Capital Technology Trust, certainly thinks so. Personally, I'm still a bit too worried about the likelihood of a Terminator/SkyNet type scenario, but he assured me this is far down the list of risks. What do you think - investment opportunity, market bubble or pending apocalypse? #investing #tech #techfund #artificialintelligence https://lnkd.in/eK9_xmWg

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