Keith Mullin

Interesting perspective on the role of ESG labels in transition finance 🌟

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Three key talking points for cobalt market ahead of LME Week 2024 Fastmarkets By Alexander Cook, Sahil Shaw September 27, 2024 Cobalt market participants globally are set to gather in London for LME Week 2024, which takes place on September 30-October 4, to discuss current market trends and the year ahead. Fastmarkets identified three key issues that are set to be in focus in the upcoming week of meetings. Weak standard-grade cobalt price The price of cobalt metal has remained under pressure for much of 2024, before reaching its lowest point since January 2016 in the run-up to LME Week. Electric vehicle sentiment slowing in Europe Market participants will head into LME Week against a backdrop of weaker-than-expected demand in 2024, with some battery metal markets at multi-year low price levels. Since last year’s LME Week, the electric vehicle (EV) legislative landscape has transformed. The Critical Raw Material Act (CRMA) was imposed in Europe in May, with tariffs on certain EVs now a part of the everyday equation for automakers too. In Europe, some EV supply chain projects and car producers have tempered their initial scale-up ambitions due to slowing EV demand and rising costs, Fastmarkets understands. “The EV story in Europe has really taken a hit, rising costs and weak demand have indicated it’s very difficult to reduce that reliance on the Chinese EV supply chain,” one market participant said on the sidelines of the Fastmarkets European BRM conference on September 16-18. Weakening sulfate price weighs on sentiment Cobalt sulfate is a chemical used in EV battery production and is derived from cobalt hydroxide, cobalt metal and more recently mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP). As the closest cobalt product to the EV battery industry, cobalt sulfate sentiment can be a strong indicator of Chinese supply and demand. Operating rates for Chinese sulfate producers have been on a downward trend since the middle of last year, owing to weakening demand prospects and a preference of some to refine metal. Throughout 2024, sulfate producers have reportedly opted to modify existing production lines to refine metal instead due to longer-term storage capability and better profit margins. Subscribers can access the full story and pricing data at this link: https://fmrkts.com/4gI9kUQ #cobalt #ElectricVehicles #sulfate #LME #LondonMetalExchange

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Many thanks Begum Gursoy for your thoughts and insights on transition finance in the context of hard to abate industries.

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Really good discussions at this week's #Carbon Forward event in London: despite low #VCM prices, a surplus of bad #credits, poor liquidity in the secondary market and continued skepticism over the integrity of projects, the industry is clearly keen to rebuild and 'sort itself out' while companies still need carbon credits to meet their #climate commitments. #Fastmarkets and our new Strategic Markets Editor for VCM Sam Carew are very excited to be moving in this space soon, bringing more #transparency to this volatile market and supporting the industry's journey towards standardization and #decarbonization.

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The ABCs and ESGs of impact investment in Green Economy Journal Issue 63: https://bitly.ws/3hnXe. #impactinvestment #greenfinance #esg #momentum Mike Adsetts

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If you’re interested to learn more about Guarantees of Origin markets, you should definitely watch the following video 👇

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The FTSE 100 appears to be in a consolidation phase, as evidenced by the sideways movements within a descending channel. The index has found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which has held despite recent selling pressure. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is showing signs of recovery from oversold conditions, suggesting that the selling pressure might be easing. As the market stabilizes above key support levels, particularly near the 8,100-8,200 range, there's potential for a bullish breakout once the consolidation phase concludes. If the price can break above the upper trendline of the descending channel and maintain momentum, we may see a bullish reversal, with the index targeting higher levels in the coming sessions.

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Genuine question for fellow QT nerds / financial plumbing experts. The BoE MPC voted to keep the pace of Quantitative Tightening unchanged at £100bn for the next 12 months, c. 90% of which will come through a passive run-off of existing holdings, and c. 10% from active sales. Bank reserves are currently upwards of £700bn, well above the BoE’s own estimate of even the £490bn upper bound of the Preferred Minimum Range of Reserves (which should delineate between what central bankers have started calling “abundant” and “ample” reserves). In other words, by the Bank’s own reckoning, it should have lots of room to shrink its balance sheet before bank reserves start to become scarce. Fine. However, this is happening against the backdrop of exponentially growth in banks drawing on the Bank’s Short Term Repo (STR) facility – not something you would expect in an environment where every bank has “abundant” reserves. If you were sitting on the MPC, would this give you pause? Are there any risks associated with moving out of "abundant" territory too quickly, or are gilt-backed reserves just going to seamlessly get replaced with repo-backed reserves?

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Read Claudia Preece's analysis on the changing - and potentially converging - role of portfolio manager and trader using the link below!

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New insights briefing from the Energy Transitions Commission focused on the importance of not only raising ambition in the next round of NDCs under the Paris Agreement, but also making stronger links to national policies and increased government and industry collaboration on implementation. The ETC recommends that “NDCs 3.0” define: - Clear and detailed roadmaps for implementation of accelerated climate action backed by strong government policy (e.g., quantitative targets for GW of renewables, phase out dates for bans on the sale of gasoline or diesel engine vehicles). - Measurable, comprehensive (covering all sectors and GHGs) and granular targets for emissions reductions. - Investable plans, especially for emerging markets, clearly stating the investment and international climate finance required to deliver stated targets. https://lnkd.in/erxp23YN

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Fascinating to recently explore the landscape for pre-RTB finance across the European renewables market, with the following key points emerging: -There is a healthy demand for this kind of product -There are, however, only a limited collection of providers -Greater volumes of early-stage debt transactions could be an important tool in unlocking a chunk of pipeline across Europe With thanks to Shifali Aggarwal at Forvis Mazars, Mint Selection, and others for contributions to the piece. To read more or learn what else NPM Europe (New Project Media) is seeing in the market right now, click here: https://lnkd.in/eRwK5JDe

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My latest is on Scope 3 emissions data, which investors say is patchy, incomparable and often based on estimates, if companies provide it at all https://lnkd.in/eX8aBUC3

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Today we discussed infrastructure investments and shared case studies on investments in social infrastructure, digital infrastructure and retail. How socio-economic challenges became investment opportunities and generated positive investment returns. How micro-economies were created in these communities that resulted in the growth of small businesses, jobs were created and the quality of lives improved. As we adapt to a sustainable economy and mitigate climate risks, let’s consider the impact on all livelihoods, assess affordability and accessibility of green solutions and invest in innovators building solutions relevant for different market contexts in Africa. #digitalinfrastructure #socialinfrastructure #perceievedvsrealrisk #realoutcomes #positivereturns #sustainableeconomies #priinperson

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Great to catch up with familiar and new faces this week at the #CarbonForward event in London to discuss all things #VCM 📉 A lot of challenges remain with prices and liquidity, particularly in the secondary market, stubbornly low. 🛫 As with last year, #CORSIA and #CCPs remain hot topics with hopes they can aid in market standardization and instil some confidence in buyers. Though what will CORSIA Phase 1 eligible supply look like this time next year? 👴 Grandfathering of currently issued #credits into newer methodologies is just round the corner. #Verra will be releasing its new procedure documents in the coming weeks outlining the process in full. Interestingly VCU holders will now be given a significantly longer 5 years to decide to opt in to the transition after a project proponents "re-quantification request" is approved, from the originally proposed 30 days. Could this help support demand for legacy #REDD credits after projects transition to VM48? At Fastmarkets we are excited to soon be moving into this space, helping to bring more transparency and supporting the #standardization and scaling of the #carbon markets.

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In this week's ECM Pulse, we look at the IPO pipeline for Europe post-summer window, a pipe that is a little less full than perhaps it looked like it would be months ago. While there are several high profile deals lined up for the autumn, notably Springer Nature, sponsors are upping their game and buying several of this year's candidates. A couple of Europe's top dual-tracks are also looking to be heading to private sales. A lot of the issue here is around perception. When IPOs are cancelled it creates a narrative that the market isn't working, but when deals price, and trade up, it makes ECM more attractive to sellers. Banks need to recreate some of the successes of the early part of this year, bring deals at compelling prices and watch them grow. This will encourage others to forego a sale instead and go for an IPO. It sounds simple, but it requires bridging significant pricing gaps between sellers and investors. Thanks to Rachel Lewis and Taku Dzimwasha for your help with this one. This will be our last ECM Pulse pre-summer but please keep up with all of our regular ECM coverage on Mergermarket, Dealogic and Dealreporter. I am also going to be off for a few weeks, hopefully starting soon, on paternity leave for my second child. But I and ECM Pulse will be back after the summer. We wish all of our readers a great summer when you get there.

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As forecast by Greenwich Forum experts, asset owners incl. #centralbanks and #SWFs buying #gold and #energy assets: what are they telling us about the future? #JoinUs #21_22_October g20pensions.org 👑GreenwichSummit.org Future of Investing European Finance Week UK & EU #Pensions #fiduciary #LaborAndCapital #viamedia Impact Forum #impactforum #impactful

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