Stuart Williamson

I was asked by South China Morning Post SCMP to comment on yesterday's disastrous breakdown of the East-West MRT line, which had initially been labelled as a power fault. It was the third major disruption in two weeks (the first two were on the Circle Line). It could also go down as an MRT incident with the biggest adverse impact - with more than one million commutes affected by the time it is completely resolved. Which could take days. That such a massive breakdown took place so soon after the completion of a decade-long rail renewal programme costing hundreds of million dollars is disturbing, to say the least. Equally disturbing is the fact that this disruption was caused by a derailment, which happened when a faulty train was being towed back to the depot. In the process, a crucial undercarriage assembly became dislodged, and part of the train went off the tracks. We have to be thankful this did not happen when the train was plying with a full load of passengers. The consequences would have been unthinkable. Indeed, the subsequent damages caused by the dislodged assembly resulted in a power fault which rendered the line inoperable. Damages were also sustained by sections of the track and trackside equipment, which in themselves would have rendered the line inoperable. Again, we must be thankful there were no human casualties. Operator SMRT pointed out that the faulty train was a first-generation machine of at least 35 years of age. If it intended this as some form of mitigation, it's a pretty weak one. It is not uncommon for metros the world over to operate even older trains. Hong Kong's MTR for instance, still has some first-generation trains turning 45 this year in service. As with all vehicles, maintenance, repair and refurbishment must be the order of the day. More so for older ones. If these are done well, trains will last longer than 35 years. Besides, the fact that an operator puts a train in operation means it is deemed trackworthy, no matter its age. Otherwise, it would be tantamount to playing Russian roulette with its customers. We have been told SMRT now practises preventive and predictive maintenance. That means, parts and components are replaced well before they become worn. It also has condition monitors, which can detect potential issues before they manifest into actual problems. So, what happened to that fateful train? Clearly, this was not just another power fault. Hopefully, the authorities will get to the bottom of this, provide a full disclosure, and take appropriate action so as to restore public confidence.

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🏡 Where buyer demand is rising and falling? 📊 At a macro level, there's been little change in the property market over the past year. However, at a micro level, the situation looks very different. 📅 Between the April quarters of 2023 and 2024, median days on market (the time it takes to sell a home) for the entire country barely moved, from 30 to 31 days, according to CoreLogic. But at a capital city level, there was quite a lot of change in days on market over the year: 👉 Hobart = +13 days 👉 Melbourne = +7 days 👉 Canberra = +4 days 👉 Sydney = +1 day 👉 Brisbane = -4 days 👉 Perth = -5 days 👉 Adelaide = -5 days 👉 Darwin = -8.5 days 📈 Rising days on market corresponds with falling buyer demand, while falling days on market corresponds with rising buyer demand. As the above data shows, most cities have experienced meaningful shifts in demand levels over the past year.

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Throw away that thesaurus. Using obscure words in your property listings does not impress buyers. Buyers prefer simple English. Don't believe me? Well, let me translate the above paragraph into thesaurus-speak. "Repudiate that synonym sourcebook. Leveraging impenetrable vocabulary in your property depictions does not galvanise patrons. Patrons are enticed by elementary English." Like I said – throw away that thesaurus when you write your listings. ---------- (Want a free copy of ‘The 5 Big Mistakes You’re Making with Your Real Estate Listings’? DM me and I'll send you a free copy.) #realestate #property #realestatewriting

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In the previous decade, the roaring teenies for China, land sales subsidised many public services. And this created a whole economic sector that relied on land sales continuing and property prices to continue to go up. The local govt is now broke, and there have been cutbacks everywhere. Salary cuts, clawbacks on bonuses, and delaying payment to the point of default for suppliers. But that does not address the fact that some services are not making money. Take the high speed rail, there are estimates that cumulative losses added to total liabilities of the HSR is at nearly USD1tr. When China was booming, it can be argued that there are spillover effects. But when the local provinces are broke (and can't subsidise their share of the 'services') because the spillover effects did not translate into tax revenue - then some level of rationalisation or price hikes are in order. "China Railway, the state-owned operator of the country’s massive high-speed network, announced last week a price increase of around 20 per cent on four of its major high-speed lines. The fare increase, which will take effect from June 15, covers some busy major routes, including between Shanghai and Hangzhou, as well as between Wuhan and Guangzhou." 20% is not a joke. Soon airfare will also rise (not as much) because they do not have to compete with China Rail at the low low prices. So will utilities. And the tax office will be more strict the next few years.

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TRIS rating report on CPN . I'm not sure how they made the assumption that the average rental rate will grow by 3-5% per year as CPN have stopped reporting same store rental growth in their investor relations presentations . "CPN’s operating performance in the first quarter of 2024 (1Q2024) was in line with our forecast. Its revenue and earnings achieved 25%-30% of our full-year target. CPN’s operating revenue soared by 19% year-on-year (y-o-y) to THB12.2 billion and its EBITDA surged by 22% y-o-y to THB8.2 billion in 1Q2024. Its revenue and earnings growth were primarily driven by increased revenues from revenue-sharing contracts, robust occupancy rate (OR), and rebounding rental rates after discontinuing the discounts previously provided to tenants. Strong growth in both the hotel operation and residential property businesses also aligned with our full-year target. Looking forward, we expect CPN’s total operating revenue to reach the THB48THB53 billion per annum level in 2024-2026 from THB47 billion in 2023. We project revenue from commercial properties to increase by 5%-10% per annum over the forecast period. This is based on our assumption of one to three new shopping centers per year, an average OR of around 90%, and average rental rate (ARR) growth of 2%-5% per annum. We anticipate revenue from hotel operation to increase to THB1.8-THB2.3 billion annually from THB1.6 billion in 2023, buoyed by the recovery of both local and foreign tourist numbers and portfolio expansion. Revenue from residential property should hover in the THB5-THB7 billion range in 2024-2026. We expect CPN to sustain its EBITDA at the THB28THB30 billion level, with an EBITDA margin of 55%-60%."  https://lnkd.in/gw5Bjzsc

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Any views on pte condos in Balestier area? Heard that its a "red light" district yet condos there are not exactly cheap compared to Geylang. Price differences can also be a lot for condos say within 2km radius of Balestier Plaza. Pinnacle 16 is much more expensive than Kemaman Point. Any reasons apart from the age? ---- Hello, Thank you for reaching out with your inquiry about private condos in the Balestier area of Singapore. As a seasoned realtor with over 10 years of experience, I've navigated the nuances of the property market extensively, including the Balestier district. Balestier is indeed known for its historical context, which includes its past as a "red light" district. However, it has evolved significantly over the years, becoming a vibrant and diverse neighborhood. The price differences between condos within a 2km radius of Balestier Plaza can be attributed to various factors beyond just the age of the buildings. Location, amenities, and the overall development's reputation play crucial roles. Pinnacle 16, being more expensive than Kemaman Point, could be due to its newer construction, better facilities, or perhaps a more desirable location within the area. It's essential to consider the overall value proposition of each property, including its proximity to transportation, schools, shopping centers, and other lifestyle amenities. If you're considering purchasing a property in Balestier, I would be delighted to provide you with a FREE valuation report and alert you to below market value property deals. My expertise in the top 1% of real estate voices on LinkedIn Singapore ensures that you'll receive the most informed advice. Feel free to explore the options and get a personalized proposal and action plan by scheduling a meeting with me. It's a straightforward and efficient way to move forward with your property decisions. For the latest property news, practical tips, and to learn more about my services, you can follow me on social media platforms such as Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, and YouTube, or connect with me on LinkedIn. You can also join my Facebook Group to stay updated on property updates. Additionally, you can download my customer reviews to see how I've been rated as the "Most Helpful" Commercial Property Agent. Remember, I'm here to assist you with any property-related questions or concerns. Don't hesitate to reach out for a live chat on WhatsApp or Messenger. Thank you for considering my services, and I look forward to the opportunity to assist you further. Thank you. Family realtor solved 1000+ property problems, Mani Subramanian Veeramani Social Media Tags: @AskRealtorMani #AskRealtorMani /AskRealtorMani https://wa.me/6583004411 Top 1% Real Estate Voice LinkedIn Singapore https://lnkd.in/gnpaxwke PS: Here is the list of Below Market Value Properties https://lnkd.in/gPQGtapW

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📍🐾🐾📍 The public outcry. The backlash. The procedure. What's the law? The recent shooting of Kopi has sparked public outcry against the justification provided by the respective authorities. Section 30 of Animal Welfare Act 2015 states that no animal may be killed by use of a firearm unless authorised by a veterinary authority in an emergency or for disease control. The bill was passed by the Dewan Rakyat in 2015!! It is with due respect that any form of control or prevention must be carried out in #humanely manner and any form of #degradation against any animals must be prevented at all cost!! While in one hand we have activists for animals frantically fighting against the uprising of animal cruelty calling for more compassion to be shown pushing hard to create awareness on the other hand we have systematic #violence and #cruelty continue to be perpetrated feriously. Let us be reminded of our #ethical responsibility as sentient beings that #animals deserve respect and kindness. Our moral obligation is to ensure their well-being. It's reflective upon us as society on the #moral responsibility that we carry, spread and convey those innate beholden values. Societies that prioritize humane treatment of animals often reflect broader values of compassion, empathy and justice. As much as we have provisions of law in place for peace, order and justice equal weightage must be accorded in protecting animals, emphasizing the importance of humane treatment as a legal and societal norm. Let us also be reminded on the gravity and the psychological impact that any inhumane treatment can #desensitize individuals and communities leading to a cycle of violence and a breakdown of social values. It just take once for the sequel to be formed. It's absolutely mortifying that I cannot prevent myself from asking whether we buried our sense of #sharing that the earth as much as home for us, it's a home for them too!!

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Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong emphasized Singapore's need for the "right politics" to avoid slipping into mediocrity. Addressing union leaders and partners of the National Trades Union Congress (NTUC) on Labour Day, he cautioned against succumbing to populism and short-term gains, urging vigilance against potential divisions in society. Highlighting the looming challenges of geopolitical tensions, Lee stressed the importance of Singapore's trustworthiness as a global partner. He called for support for Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who will succeed him, acknowledging the upcoming transition as a pivotal moment for the country's future. During Lee's tenure as Singapore's longest-serving prime minister, the country's gross domestic product surged from S$194 billion (US$142 billion) in 2004 to more than S$600 billion (US$439 billion) last year. #Growth #Trust #Leadership #FinancialCentre #Inclusive #SocialCohension #Innovation #Transformation #NextGen #Singapore I South China Morning Post SCMP I Kimberly L.

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TRIS rating report on the CPNREIT . What the report does not mention is anything about same store rental growth. I have not seen any mention of that item either in CPN's investor presentations . The REIT holds 7 shopping centers including Central Rama 2 and Rama 3 , 4 office buildings and the Hilton Hotel Pattaya "CPNREIT’s revenue and earnings growth were primarily driven by the robust occupancy rate (OR) of shopping centers at above 95% and increased revenues from revenue-sharing contracts. The trust also received the full amount of fixed and variable rents for Hilton Pattaya since the beginning of 2023. The OR of the Hilton Pattaya Hotel recovered to 88% in 2023 and 94% in 6M24 from 76% in 2022. However, the OR of office buildings continued declining to 84%-85% in 2023-6M24 from above 90% of the pre-pandemic level. Future performance continues reviving We expect CPNREIT’s operating performance to continue improving, supported by increasing rental and services income from its retail and hotel businesses amid the ongoing recovery of customer traffic, rising tourist arrivals in Thailand, and growth prospects from potential asset acquisitions from its sponsor. Nonetheless, we view that the OR and rental rates of office spaces will continue to face significant challenges due to the large influx of supply expected in 2024-2025.  " https://lnkd.in/gqe9AnYQ

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Singapore needs more aggressive cooling measures. the attached article is a quote by Barclays originally published by Bloomberg (unnamed author) and printed by EdgeProp Singapore quite curious pipeline of the written word. Anyway basically states that if the government does not want to lose votes, we need more cooling measures (my own interpretation) my suggestion ● 200% foreign buyer stamp duty ● -3% foreign seller stamp duty if selling to Singaporeans (incentivize foreigners sellers to sell to Singaporeans) ● stop sales of commercial shophouses to Foreigners. ● stop investments into hotels and any form of residential listing to foreigners via REITS or Property Funds. Ours is a particularly small land mass. 740sqkm. We only have a limited amount of housing. To Singaporeans ● 2nd home ABSD 50% ● 3rd home ABSD 100% ● 4th home ABSD 150% in terms of inheritance, each child is allowed to inherit one home from their deceased parent. parent had 1 home parent has 1 child 1home = 1child parent had 2 homes parent has 1 child 1home = 1child 2nd home must be sold into the market with 365 days of legal probate being issued. etc etc We need to bring existing homes of Singaporeans with 3-5 homes back into the market after they are gone. Also we cannot allow trust and foreign entities to own anything in Singapore without clear parth of finding the actual owner. Not VBIs, not shell companies in Seychelles or Mauritius etc etc. This has to end now. 1 home for 1 Singaporean, That is it. Criticism must be backed by alternative solutions. Easy to criticize and offer no alternative.

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This is probably out of date as of now. "Tools like the “white list” should be carefully expanded to boost financing for struggling developers and tamp down wider market risks, the country’s Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and National Financial Regulatory Administration said at a joint video conference in late September." This was done at the end of last month, before the whole market rally. "According to an official readout from the conference released on Wednesday, the two bodies called for “strengthening the oversight of white list projects, the restoration of problem projects and increasing the issuance of loans to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate developments.” And announced yesterday. I am guessing 2 weeks after the event. And I think the world has changed. The original white list has not helped much. Banks are reluctant to lend to insolvent entities (ie. projects that have almost sold all their houses, biut not completed because the developer took the monies [with abetment from the local govt overseeing the escrow] to buy land auctions (from the local govt); any injections now would not recoup any money because ALL the monies are spent - and what is left to be the collateral?) or iffy projects (i.e. projects that are near completion but have still unsold homes IN THIS MARKET - at least the collateral can be the unsold homes; but banks are not in the property business.) Here is the only way that banks will lend to developers on the white list: that the Chinese govt give the banks the same level of assurance that the US govt gave JP Morgan to take over Bear Stearns assets - for the risks involved, we guarantee to make full of the losses. So here is where the tardiness of the regulators is coming to bite them in their ass, not all the projects of the white listed developers are viable - and they had not bothered/succeeded in doing triage on what projects are unviable and needed to be unwound. And this means that if they GUARANTEE all the losses, the banks will not undertake due diligence - because if they did, none of them will pass. Reminds me of the joke that the teacher announced he graded the class on a curve and someone said that means half of us failed. He replied dun blame me, if I graded you on a straight grade - all of you would have failed.

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Okay, the govt is trying to shore up the market extremely indirectly with the 'latest' announcement. I used 'latest' in quotes because this policy decision has been announced for a year already. "The latest moves made over the past week include an official notice to upgrade old communities, which is expected to optimise land use and drive construction, and a meeting by the central bank to fast-forward the refinancing of low-income housing, in an attempt to absorb inventory." Okay, I am not sure if the last two words make sense. The current property overhand which is the excess inventory are high-income housing, overpriced high income housing. Overpriced by 30% high income housing (by some market measures). If you convert high income housing to low income housing someone has to take a haircut. If you are going to convert unused land into low income housing - this a) adds to the inventory, and b) the houses will not come on stream until later and c) the monies earned from downpayment is probably not enough to cover the cash demands of the developers. And it does not help increase homeowners' desire to buy the current high-end apartments when the govt is trying to increase the low end apartment inventory.

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Comment on comment of Sanjeev Aaron Williams on original post 🔴🇲🇾🇸🇬 Will the politics ever allow Malaysian planners to take Singapore as a case study even if it is for the good of Malaysia❓ Doesn’t this rank as “sensitive” an issue as ethnic relations, education or currency exchange rate management❓ In 1978, China leader Deng Xiaoping visited Singapore and had a good chat with Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew. The rest is history, including in the areas of urban planning, providing housing, industrial estates, education and opening up China’s economy. Singapore is a friend to all, and enemy to none. Why not work with close neighbours rather than with distant “neighbours”❓ ❇️ APPENDICES 🔶❤️ China-built Infrastructure User Guide In the Control Panel of every infrastructure built by China, there is a ❤️heart-shaped compartment. What is it for❓ 🌐 https://lnkd.in/gYQXgr2P .

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Always be very careful reading such headlines and be aware that most articles regurgitate press releases without any analysis by the journalists. The value of what is classified “assets” is relatively uncertain, especially real estate where the quarterly home values are estimated from the published indices. The estimates of a household's financial assets could be nearer to the truth. However, for financial assets, they belong to the top 3 deciles and up to the 5th decile (probably the top half of earning households and rich retiree households) have financial investment assets.  When looking at Household Balance Sheet, we need to look at household debt. Debt estimates are very close to reality as MAS surveys the banks for what the outstanding loans are.  "Liabilities" are real and quantifiable. "Assets" (especially real estate) could include wishful and dreamy valuations. More importantly, think about which segment of demographics owns financial assets and are net positive assets while which segment of our society DO NOT have financial assets and are likely to be net negative in assets. We need to worry about the bottom 7 (!) deciles and their ability to repay debt or to get out of the debt trap. Household debt on the rise but may be cushioned by wage, financial assets growth: MAS https://lnkd.in/gANxsGTi

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The second last issue of ESG for 2024 is out! Our cover story looks at the RECs (renewable energy certificates) market. Does it result in any actual impact? What kind of RECs do corporates -- especially data centres -- want? How can Malaysia make sure it generates the right kind of RECs that are in demand, and how can corporates ensure they're not "greenwashing" by purchasing RECs? I personally learned a lot writing this story with Ravinyaa Ravimalar, I hope you do too. Thank you Hun Yang Soon, Reik Ong, Nirinder Johl, Tham Chee Aun and others for your time! Other stories: 1) A quick reflection on what Trump's re-election means for the climate 2) Reactions from CSOs on the Climate Change Bill consultation paper 3) The latest updates from the National Action Plan for Business and Human Rights (Edmund Bon Tai Soon) 4) Features on oil palm smallholders adopting regenerative agriculture (with Wild Asia), schoolteachers setting up a composting and recycling facility (with Zero Waste Malaysia) and others If you don't want to buy a physical copy, you can get it on our app/e-paper as well. Thank you!

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De Wei Low Risk Analyst at Land Transport Authority (LTA) Singapore quote...... Home values remain eye-watering. The median price for a private condominium >S$1.7 million in June, according to the information from a URA database, up more than 30% from 4 years ago. The 2nd hand market for cheaper public housing, where the bulk of locals live, saw its 17th consecutive quarter of price increases." unq Private Housing 2020 2024 1m 1.3m 2m 2.6m 3m 3.9m 4m 5.2m let's take the $4m category. At this category, the value if your house went up $821 per day every day for 1460days. Where is the economic gain , where is the value add & did the rents also go up 0.02% per day? frankly I cannot put my head around this figure of 30% in 4 years. Will we see another 30% in another 4 years? in the US as a comparison Scott Galloway explains that "one of the big reasons young people are struggling is asset inflation, which leads to lack of purchasing power and quality of life. In the last 40 years, housing & education have gone up 9-12x while salaries have gone up 6x. From 1960-90, the median home price was equal to roughly 2.5 yrs of household income. By 2020 that ratio has nearly doubled — house prices were more than 4x annual incomes. (Housing prices have only risen since then.) Home ownership is a principal tenet of the American Dream. Owning a home builds credit, reduces housing costs, and makes a young family feel a sense of pride, belonging, and accomplishment. Yet home ownership is increasingly unavailable to young people." unq. Singapore home ownership starts with an affordable HDB available for about $200000 at the bottom rung. This allows someone with a married combined income of say $80000 per year to pay small installments for 20 years to pay off his/her HDB. but aspirants from overseas who want to make Singapore their home today must be able to afford an initial lump sum of at least $280000 in order to enter the private home real estate market. Basically you have removed 99% of Malaysians, Indonesias, Thais, Indians and Phillipinos to enter the market. Its a brick wall barriers to entry. I believe the era of migration into Singapore without either / Combined household income of over $150000/year / marrying a Singaporean / a shitload of money is over. From now on, the only migrants and expats will be moneyed. And I believe at some point will not be able to assimilate with Singaporeans. The leadership under LW have a difficult task. There is a constant demand for expat talent but individuals moving in aged 20 to 25 incomes $50000/y to $75000/y cannot afford rent over $30000/year 26 to 30 incomes $75000/y to $100000/y cannot afford rent over $45000/year 31 to 35 incomes $100000/y to $125000/y cannot afford rent over $60000/year. rents between $25000 to $45000/year is becoming impossible to find and so as we see rents rising, expatriates will go the way of the Dinosaurs.

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