Patrick Lai’s Post

Alas, it’s the eve of the handover. This time tomorrow, #Singapore would be led by its fourth Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. In an interview with local media ahead of taking office, the PM-designate spoke at length about his governing style, emphasising a consultative approach and willingness to slay sacred cows if need be. When unpopular decisions have to be made, Mr Wong said he will take it upon himself to face the public. He also acknowledged the rising #opposition presence in local #politics, and how the ruling party is not taking victory in the next general election for granted. Amid a volatile geopolitical landscape, Mr Wong reassured Singaporeans that the country is well-positioned to tread through the new global order (https://lnkd.in/gDmsZu3G). Notably, he articulated that Singapore’s approach towards superpowers US and China would not be to “somehow achieve some perceived balance”, but to prioritise its own national interests. As Singapore undergoes this generational #leadership transition, it is also an opportunity to shape the type of future we want though our voices, thoughts and actions. 🇸🇬

Thanks again, Karishma Vaswani, for a look at Singapore, which always by default provides lessons to Taiwan. It was good to meet some visitors from Singapore recently, who were traveling in Taiwan and shared what they believed made Singapore a safe place: it is an international city, and by being so it makes it hard for anyone to want to attack it. You are correct that for the incoming prime minister, this requires some skill at balancing things, from welcoming the huge influx of foreign talent escaping from Hong Kong to ensuring that the local population is not crowded out in their own city. Perhaps it is time for that broken link with Malaysia that made Lee Kuan Yew cry over to be re-connected to some degree, with nearby Kuala Lumpur providing a convenient place to catch any overflows in talent and investment. At the same time, the lessons learned which kept Singapore out of trouble during the first Cold War may need to be looked at again now, as Cold War 2.0 unfolds. And this one is comprised of two powers with which Singapore has worked hard to cultivate relations: the U.S. and China. The era of putting politics aside so economies in Asia like Singapore's can simply focus on making money may have ended as debates from the first Cold War remained unresolved. Now would be a good time for any leader to consider how they want those debates resolved, peacefully and transparently.

Yesterday (15 May 2024), the fourth Prime Minister of Singpoare was inaugurated. After 20 years under #LeeHsienLoong, this small yet smart city-state has transformed into one of the world's most advanced nations. The legacies of former PM Lee and his late father, #LeeKuanYew, are integral to envisioning today's Singapore. What I have observed in Singapore is smart yet in conventional and book-smart manners. This approach extends to diplomacy, where Singapore strives to balance its relations between the US and China. It avoids assimilating solely due to ethnic similarities with mainland China, choosing instead to engage proactively and eclectically with the US. This equidistant stance has been the country's approach ever since. Furthermore, Singapore has consistently been eager to embrace new technologies and standards for further advancement, thereby rejecting the idea of neutrality. But it affirms to align with its national interests. However, in my careful observation, this relentless pursuit of advancement can sometimes lead to fatigue and suppress flexibility or latitude of minds which can lead to unexpected creativity. In advanced economies like Singapore—and also #Korea—it might be more beneficial to prioritise life over survival. #LawrenceWong, in his speech, articulated, "It's never about subtracting, but always about adding. It's never about contracting, but always about expanding." This mathematical metaphor illustrates how the nation is ready to embrace and integrate true #diversity as a unique and natural aspect of its entirety. Singapore's role within #ASEAN has also been somewhat of a guiding light. While intelligence is crucial, in ASEAN, it is not everything; unity and togetherness are keys. Thus, observing how the fourth Prime Minister of Singapore and his cabinet embark journey hand-in-hand with ASEAN is something to look forward to in the future. https://lnkd.in/d2BBBtmF

I disagree with Kavi Chongkittavorn article in today's Bangkok Post objectively. Although I may well agree with it from an Asian perspective. Which is not relevant when mapping geopolitics. Australia is a mix of many different extreme western cultures and smaller Asian cultures that have moved their overtime. Let's not forget the majority of the Country which was first populated by Aboriginals was built by assisted immigrants and western labelled criminals. Colonial Era settlers were British and Irish. About 20 percent of Australians are descendants of convicts. Racism is also heavily felt within the Country. Which is a key point when discussing The ASEAN Secretariat and it is a current member of the British Commonwealth. As of 2021 the population of Australia was around 26 Million and made up of English 25.9%, Australian 25.4%, Irish 7.5%, Scottish 6.4%, Italian 3.3%, German 3.2%, Chinese 3.1%, Indian 1.4%, Greek 1.4%, Dutch 1.2%, other 15.8% (includes Australian Aboriginals) Its recent inclusion within FVEY and AUKUS treaties make it a formidable Oceaniac Partner and it is staunchly western leaning. While the recent Anthony Albanese elected Government-of-the-day is really just a misadventure because the previous Liberal, Semi-Conservative Government-of-the-day led by Scott Morrison had some tremendous Media-Outages; Albanese will work more closely with ASEAN and balance it's relationship with China.....While it fundamentally follows American Foreign Policy. Which is another key point when discussing ASEAN. Furthermore, historically Australian Socialist Governments have normally imploded under party political issues. Therefore, it may not have long left; or a Lib/Con alliance will succeed at the next election and have a much different view on ASEAN China relations. So my thoughts are if ASEAN wishes to be seen to be credible. It needs to be doing business with Australia. Not the other way around. While Thailand is a key ingredient in the American led Australian/UK reach-out to ASEAN because it needs Thailand in-order to manipulate China (American Foreign Policy is using Thailand as a poker chip). By no means should ASEAN blindly believe Australia needs ASEAN. ASEAN as a whole isn't that important to AUKUS relations. #ASEAN #australia #unitedkingdom #america #geopolitics #FiveEyes #AUKUS

The recently sworn-in NDA government in New Delhi, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is set to prioritize South Asia as a key foreign policy focus. As India aims for a global role, strong regional ties are essential. Dr. Happymon Jacob provides an in-depth analysis of the factors shaping India's South Asia policy and the challenges it faces. Key points from the article: 🌏 Prioritizing South Asia: New Delhi’s renewed focus on South Asia started during the previous tenure of Prime Minister Modi and is driven by several interrelated factors. India recognizes that its path to the global role must go through the neighbourhood. 🇨🇳 The China Challenge: China's growing influence in South Asia poses a strategic challenge for India. Despite India's global rise, its regional dominance is diminishing compared to China's surge in trade, connectivity, and political engagement. 🔄 Diplomatic Course Correction: Modi 3.0 will likely continue the diplomatic course correction seen in Modi 2.0, moving away from the aggressive stance of Modi 1.0. The aim is to foster stronger, more positive relations with neighboring countries. 🇵🇰 Pakistan Policy: India's Pakistan policy remains minimalist, focusing on conflict management rather than resolution. This strategic shift reflects a preference for stability over comprehensive dialogue. 🇲🇲🇦🇫 Engagement with Myanmar and Afghanistan: Expect continued engagement with Myanmar's military government and a gradual increase in ties with the Taliban in Afghanistan, driven by India's strategic interests in the region. 🤝 Regional Integration: While regional engagement is prioritized, promoting regionalism through SAARC seems unlikely. India views SAARC as limited in achieving substantial outcomes. The focus will be on integrating South Asia within the broader Indo-Pacific strategy. For a comprehensive understanding of India's evolving South Asia policy under the NDA government, read the full article by Happymon Jacob here: https://lnkd.in/dXwXRjfJ #SouthAsiaPolicy #India #ModiGovernment #Geopolitics #IndoPacific #ChinaIndia #ForeignPolicy

𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐋𝐚𝐰𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐖𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐞 𝐒𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐚𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐅𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞? As Lawrence Wong steps into the role of Singapore's Prime Minister on May 15, many are eager to see how his leadership will transform our nation. DPM Wong's journey to becoming Prime Minister has been marked by his decisive and inclusive approach in handling the COVID-19 pandemic. During the health crisis, he earned widespread praise as he co-led the government’s response, showcasing transparency, level-headedness, and effective crisis management. One of DPM Wong’s strengths is his engagement with citizens, as seen in the Forward Singapore initiative. His focus on inclusivity and adaptability signals a commitment to ensuring government policies reflect the evolving aspirations of our society. However, DPM Wong has said it himself that he will make unpopular decisions if necessary to steer Singapore away from treacherous waters. It won't be all roses though. Wong's mettle will be fully tested in the merciless battlefield of global and regional politics. Domestically, he also faces the task of reconnecting with younger voters. Born in the late 1990s and early 2000s, they are facing challenges that their forebears cannot imagine. Additionally, Singapore grapples with rising costs of living and economic uncertainties. Core inflation has surged, putting pressure on household expenses. Should salaries be adjusted too much upwards, Singapore becomes an expensive city and this will drive out global investors. Wong’s administration will also need to address recent challenges to the ruling party’s image, such as the corruption scandals involving a minister and the former speaker. These may have shaken some public confidence in the PAP's traditionally clean reputation. On the international stage, DPM Wong must navigate complex geopolitical tensions. They include U.S.-China relations, the Middle-East conflicts between Israel and Hamas, and regional conflicts including Myanmar's role in ASEAN. Maintaining Singapore’s diplomatic balance while fostering new ties will be crucial for our nation’s stability and economic prosperity. Whatever the case may be, I am optimistic that Singapore will continue to prosper and progress under PM Wong's leadership. We can expect a dynamic and forward-thinking administration that has its eye on future tech trends (AI anybody?), while valuing unity and engagement. With his humility and deep sense of duty, Singapore will continue to be run by a government dedicated to serving the people and addressing their concerns, despite the significant hurdles ahead. What are your thoughts on Lawrence Wong's upcoming leadership? How do you think he will shape Singapore's future? PS - image generated by ChatGPT4o

Wang Yi's move was so obvious and so blatant that we saw it coming a mile away as it came out from his mouth mere meters away. "Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has commended Singapore for the smooth transition of the premiership from Mr Lee Hsien Loong to Mr Lawrence Wong on May 15, saying that it could be a model for the West." Well, it could also be a model for China given how power was fought over by Bo Xilai and Xi Jinping - but our MFA is too polite to point out that the sun also has spots. Singapore did not invent the Parliamentary system, as a matter of fact, if not for PAP winning the post-democracy election big time (because Barisan Socialis walked out) LKY may not have the mandate to tweak the system, the country to his mode of design thinking. Yup, it took a bunch of commie to screw up in order for another bunch of commies to praise us 60 years on. The US model is evolving, the fact that it is chaotic is neither here nor there. It was more chaotic in 1968, 1940 - and probably in the early years of the new democratic country that persecuted Indians and kept slaves - and denied women the vote. The key is always what system will the people allow, and how well they can be gamed to deliver power and good governance in a democracy; and how they can be adjusted. Democracy Singapore style works well in Singapore, it is moot whether it works best. But it works well enough. We borrow ideas from here and there, and formulated some of our own; and here we are. Singapore style govt is admired for its outcomes but few nations' population even in SEA wants to have a govt THAT powerful - because their experience with that level of power is usually bad - despots, dictatorships, democracies tend to have bad governance as the norm. To put it bluntly - PAP did not pioneer the 'dictatorship first, democracy second' model - and it was the first to make it work. In a small package. Many fail to leave the dictatorship model because they did not want to or were unable to transition from successful coup plotters to successful economic and social engineers.

🇸🇬 Singapore will have a new prime minister on May 15, with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong set to become Singapore’s fourth PM, succeeding Lee Hsien Loong. His success will depend on his ability to adapt and innovate while maintaining the stability and economic growth that have been hallmarks of Singaporean governance. ⚪ Wong, 51, comes from a humble background and is known for his swift political rise, having held key ministerial positions in defense, education, finance, and national development since his political debut in 2011. 🔴  An economist by training, Wong has been pivotal in managing Singapore’s COVID-19 response. His approach to leadership has been characterized as pragmatic and incremental, focusing on evolution rather than revolution in policy-making. ⚪ Wong inherits a complex array of challenges as he steps into the role of Prime Minister: 🔴 Economic Issues: Singapore faces pressing issues such as rising living costs and widening social inequalities. The challenge is to maintain economic vitality while addressing these internal pressures. 🔴 Political Landscape: There's increasing pressure on the PAP for more inclusive governance. The opposition, led by the Workers' Party, has been gaining ground, signaling a demand for a more participative political process. 🔴 Geopolitical Tensions: The intensifying US-China rivalry presents a delicate situation for Singapore, which has historically maintained a balanced stance. Navigating this tension, especially with the growing assertiveness of China in the region, will be crucial. ⚪ Singapore, a small but economically robust state, has successfully managed its relationships with major world powers, maintaining strong economic ties with China while securing defense and security partnerships with the United States. However, the geopolitical landscape is shifting. #Singapore #SoutheastAsia #leadership #geopolitics

Inkerman Insights - Political Turmoil in the World’s Fourth-Largest Economy: Should We Be Concerned? Japan’s snap election, called by new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, has left the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with a weakened majority, marking a stark shift in public trust following a major corruption scandal. With only 215 seats, down from 279, the LDP faces opposition pressure as the centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) gains momentum. Ishiba may now be forced into a coalition with smaller parties, risking policy instability, especially concerning Japan’s planned defence spending amid tensions with China, Russia and North Korea. Economic strains add further pressure, as Japan’s high debt and stagnating wages fuel growing public discontent. The election’s outcome signals a turbulent future for Japanese politics, both domestically and in its strategic alliances, as regional and global uncertainties rise. To receive this article by Emily Fosbery, Specialist Intelligence Officer at The Inkerman Group, contact [email protected]. #Japan #JapanElection2024 #LiberalDemocraticParty #JapanesePolitics #PoliticalInstability #ShigeruIshiba #AsiaPacificSecurity #JapanEconomy #DefenceSpending #CDP #CoalitionGovernment #PublicTrust #JapanUSRelations #GeopoliticalRisk