Patrik Gayer

This week, in Sweden, there has been extensive coverage of "troll factories" within the political debates. The pervasive spread of false information online highlights a critical issue: the impact of disinformation on public opinion and democracy. We also need to foster an ethical public debate and take responsibility for the information we share. I know that my friend @MelissaFleming, Under-Secretary-General for Global Communications at United Nations, has made this a key message of her UN communications platform.  In a recent article she wrote on “How AI is Boosting Misinformation”, she points out that the World Economic Forum declared AI-powered misinformation as the world’s biggest short-term threat. “Misinformation, disinformation and hate speech are already polluting our information ecosystems — polarizing societies, eroding trust, and ultimately threatening human progress,” she says. As communication professionals,  we bear a significant responsibility. We must consume information critically and question its sources and intentions. Who's the sender? What's their agenda? In this complex landscape, transparency and dialogue are our guiding principles. Communication is powerful—it drives societal change and influences our democratic processes. However, we must commit to ethical standards and informed discourse; only then can we help safeguard society against the detrimental effects of disinformation. https://lnkd.in/de7CwE6s #FakeNews #Disinformation #Communication #Ethics #MediaLiteracy #DigitalAge Melissa Fleming

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For #AUKUS, the next four months will determine the future of the partnership. ******** "We fully expect to finalize the new trade exemptions – based on stakeholder input – over the course of the next 120 days." LINK: https://lnkd.in/eQ9x68pP #aukus #pillar1 #pillar2 #advancedcapabilities #submarines

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As #AI technology rapidly advances, we face new challenges in combating disinformation and foreign interference. In my recent piece for Cyberwatch Finland, "Countering Disinformation and Foreign Interference at the Time of AI", I explore: ▪ How AI is transforming content creation and amplifying disinformation risks ▪ Potential impacts on democracies, vulnerable populations, and social cohesion. I also discuss strategies to mitigate these risks, including: 🔸 Public awareness and media literacy campaigns 🔸 Ethical AI development and accountability 🔸 International cooperation and platform regulation 🔸 Continuous R&D in detection and countermeasures 🔸 Embracing the change. While there's no silver bullet, a multifaceted approach can help us harness AI's benefits while building resilience against its misuse. Read the full article below and download the latest Cyberwatch Magazine: https://lnkd.in/dXyqFmpv P.S. In the spirit of transparency, I'd like to acknowledge that the writing process of this article was supported by OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude. These AI tools were valuable in refining ideas and language, showcasing both the potential and challenges of AI in content creation.

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The clear and present danger is not Weather, but Politics... While the US proxy war against the Ukraine is not going well, there is still a growing concern among those sitting too close to the fire, that it will get out-of-hand and burn those around it. And nothing wrong with a little circumspection. (see interesting link below) But it's also a bit of Neoliberal alarmist projecting - suggesting Russia is the evil force that's out of control. If that were true, they wouldn't have survived post-WWII as free countries right next door to the USSR. Yes, Russia is paranoid. And for good reasons. But WW III is not something Russia has invited. It's the US and it's quest for a world safe for Capitalist Exploitation that poses the real threat. Like the Roman Empire before us, we've advanced to the point where protecting and expanding the wealth of the Rich is the only agenda in a once great experiment in Working Class peace and prosperity. No justice, no peace — and sooner of later, no empire. https://lnkd.in/eCAiEA8Y

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At the Future Forces Forum, I had the opportunity to delve into the critical topic of countering UAVs, with a particular focus on EW (electronic warfare) solutions. The ongoing war in Ukraine has underscored the urgent need for effective countermeasures in this domain. Over the two days of the exhibition, I engaged in discussions with numerous developers specializing in EW. A common theme that emerged was the emphasis on influencing UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) within a specific frequency range rather than solely targeting their algorithms. While such solutions offer certain advantages, they also come with inherent limitations. The pros and cons of frequency-based jamming: - Pros: Frequency-based jamming solutions can neutralise UAVs within a specific range, providing a broad and scalable method of blocking signals or controlling UAV communications. They are often quicker to deploy and can be effective in real-time, especially in combat situations. - Cons: These systems can have limitations, in particular, jamming can also interfere with friendly communications and is less effective against more advanced drones designed to operate in a frequency hopping environment. Pros and cons of algorithmic-based jamming: - Pros: Targeting UAV algorithms allows for a more precise and sophisticated method of disruption. This approach has the potential to outperform autonomous drones by exploiting their decision-making logic, offering a long-term strategic advantage against increasingly autonomous systems. - Cons: Solutions focused on algorithmic intervention are often more complex to develop and may not be as effective in urgent combat situations. They also require considerable research and understanding of specific UAV software, which can vary between manufacturers and models. I'm interested in your perspectives on the most promising approaches in the field of electronic warfare for countering UAVs. Which solutions do you believe hold the greatest potential, and why? #FutureForcesForum #UAVCountermeasures #ElectronicWarfare #DefenseTechnology #Modernwarfare

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Was Trump right to threaten NATO members over defence spending? A political/geopolitical story from me this week that comes from our Berlin conference. Citywire events always bring in speakers who offer heavyweight experience, new thinking and a perspective from beyond the day to day of working in financial markers, asset management and fund selection. In Berlin we had the privilege of hearing from Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger (former German ambassador to the US, and UK, and was 10-yr chair of the Munich Security Conference). After his talk I wanted to ask him how he felt about Donald Trump's threat that, if elected president, the US would not leap tot he defence of NATO members who had not met their pledge to spend 2% of GDP on defence. As a reminder, this is what Trump said earlier on 2024: ‘I said: “You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent?”... “No I would not protect you, in fact I would encourage them to do whatever they want. You gotta pay.”’ The remark was quickly condemned by NATO's leadership, US President Biden and others. Indeed, there are those who say these remarks (as well as what Trump said about this subject when president between 2016-2020) eroded the US's own credibility on the world stage. Still, what is the pragmatic view? Ischinger's remark should not be taken at all as an overall endorsement of Trump or his remarks, I do not think the ambassador is a great fan of DT. But in his reply he also explains why the outcome has been the right one, what happens next and how European governments should be talking about defence spending to their own people. #NATO #Trump #CitywireBerlin #citywireselector https://lnkd.in/euibfU6R

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UNGA observations (1/2) During the first two days of the #UNGA General Debate we have heard diverse views from the global leaders. Sometimes they sound like a chorus, sometimes as a cacophony. One can argue there is unity in difference. Still polarising approaches to the conflicts in the Middle East and in #Ukraine. Common frustration but constructive discussions to find a way forward on the UN reform and progress on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The former was brilliantly summarised by 🇱🇻 president Edgars Rinkēvičs: “The number of permanent members of the Security Council must be expanded. To make it more effective, inclusive and accountable. To elevate the voice of underrepresented regions. <…> No single state should have veto power in the United Nations Security Council. Especially when it comes to conflicts the permanent members are involved themselves. This is the way to ensure that the permanent members of the Security Council uphold their responsibility to protect peace and security.” The latter was vented out by 🇲🇻 president Mohamed Muizzu: “Six years to the SDG deadline we’re only on track in less than a fifth of those targets. <…> I’m sorry but we can’t keep doing this. We can’t keep meeting, talking, pledging but not doing.” Hope this time round with the Pact for the Future and Global Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations adopted last weekend, the UN will be able to make more progress than before.

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NATO’s Political Dimension   Honored to join leading experts on both sides of the Atlantic in contributing to the new Routledge Handbook of NATO, a comprehensive survey of the Alliance’s development and future course, edited by John Andreas Olsen. My chapter examines the evolution of NATO’s political dimension and proposes ways to enhance allied consultations and policy coordination. Some key findings: • Regular, timely consultations on major strategic and political issues can enhance NATO’s ability to shape the international environment, manage crises, and complement enhanced vigilance military activities. • NATO-EU dialogue, policy coordination, and practical cooperation, particularly since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have never been better, but there are opportunities for further joint efforts on China, societal resilience, and climate change. • For the foreseeable future, NATO’s contacts with Russia will be limited to military deconfliction. Over the longer term, a new mechanism for engagement with Moscow could support resolution of the Ukraine war and manage tensions with respect to the Arctic, outer space, and other areas of friction. • Deepening dialogue and information exchanges on China internally and with the EU and the Indo-Pacific partners could help foster common policies toward threats posed by the PRC. NATO might eventually explore discussions with Beijing on contentious issues including cyber, outer space, and maritime security. • While public support for NATO remains very high on both sides of the Atlantic, “Ukraine fatigue” and populist politicians skeptical of NATO pose the most serious looming threat to allied cohesion over the next five years. Robust public diplomacy efforts, continued U.S. leadership, and an active transatlantic dialogue will be essential to meet this challenge. https://lnkd.in/egNv6B_u #NATO75

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Today's Financial Times article writes on Russian attack scenarios - drawn up even before February 2022 - to hit not only Europe but also Russia's current allies, China, Iran and North Korea. “The latest revelations show how Russia envisioned a conflict with the west reaching well beyond its immediate Nato frontier, planning for a series of overwhelming strikes across western Europe.” Russian navy trained to target sites inside Europe with nuclear-capable missiles https://on.ft.com/4fzYtM2

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Just as after World War II democracies came together to help each other strengthen their own economies thereby buttressing support for democracy; we need to see the same effort made today. That's the argument I make via the OECD - OCDE's blog; and in sharing our new report from the Eisenhower Institute:

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🖥 This week deepfakes have started to make their mark on the general election campaign. 👮‍♂️ Seeing as they target the politicians who are best placed to do something about them, will it lead to a tougher regulatory approach on generative AI once the polls close? 🤖 But how would this work and what impact would this have on the broader tech sector? We explore this policy issue in our latest substack from Bradshaw Advisory.

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AI, big tech, and the profit-motive -- alive and well at our border crossings. This piece by Petra Molnar explains why we need to look differently at experimental technologies and question who is setting the agenda. The "Border Surveillance Industrial Complex" impacts us all...with the most vulnerable paying the highest price. "We must also pay close attention to the role of the private sector, as big business drives the development of border technologies, and private companies do not have an incentive to regulate these lucrative projects. Surveillance companies set the agenda of what we innovate on and why, presenting technical “solutions” to migration like robo-dogs or AI lie detectors, instead of developing AI to root out racist border guards, or creating technologies for information-sharing or mental health support at the border... ...With bodies becoming passports and matters of life and death are determined by algorithm, witnessing and sharing stories is a form of resistance against the hubris and cruelty of those seeking to use technology to turn human beings into problems to be solved." https://lnkd.in/gyn-qYev

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Read my latest article on Swedish Child Soldiers at Border Security Report (pp.10-13). In August the Danish Minister of Justice Peter Hummelgaard warned that Denmark would put pressure on Sweden to contain cross-border gang violence. Particularly, it concerned armed Swedish teenagers acting as child soldiers in criminal turf wars. The Minister called it “a scary phenomenon” that Danish gangs are hiring young Swedes to do “their dirty work”. This is a first time we see that inability of one EU state to cope with its internal security issues forcing its neighbour state to reflect on border protection. It is easy to suggest that we might see more and more similar discussions in future. #crossborder #organisedcrime #danemark #sweden #borderprotection #bordersecurity #shengen #eu https://lnkd.in/ewrRSTHF

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🌍🕵️‍♂️ Europe’s Next Step: A Spy Agency? My piece for Atlantic Council New Atlanticist In an era marked by heightened tensions and hybrid threats, former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö is calling for bold action: a unified EU intelligence service. 📢 His report argues that fragmented national efforts are no longer enough to counter modern challenges like cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, especially highlighted by Russia’s war in Ukraine and its alignment with China. 🛡️🇷🇺🇨🇳 ⚠️ With the upcoming appointment of the EU's first defense commissioner and a new defense white paper on the horizon, Niinistö’s recommendations could shape Europe's strategic future. But without political commitment, these plans may remain words on paper. 📄⏳ 🔗 Read the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/eYyQuB4D #EuropeanSecurity #EUIntelligence #CrisisResponse #AtlanticCouncil

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With Sweden's accession to NATO, a watershed moement, enormous shift have to come both for Sweden and NATO. Add Finland to the mix, and the Baltic front for NATO is suddenly in play. The Baltic becomes Lake NATO. And Sweden suddenly has a crucial forward role, not a homeland Total Defence role, which augurs major shifts in force posture, strategy, and capability Sweden never needed before. Let's take a look at these. #Sweden, #NATO Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP) Anna Jarmuth Jagannath Panda Filip Borges Månsson #DefenceStrategy #SecurityPolicy #ForceStructure #ForceCapability

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Looking for a comprehensive overview of NATO nuclear deterrence and its role in the broader international nuclear order? I'm excited to share our latest report from Finnish Institute of International Affairs - FIIA and Tampere University on this crucial subject. This translated and updated version of our January 2024 report provides a valuable manual for policymakers, scholars, and anyone interested in understanding the intricacies of NATO's nuclear deterrence. It also assesses Finland's role in and contribution to NATO's nuclear efforts. Tapio Juntunen, Iro Särkkä https://lnkd.in/gAsJxjX3

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German tech investor Klaus Hommels has said he will invest €100 million of his own capital in defense related start-ups in Europe. The founder of VC firm Lakestar and chairman of the NATO Innovation Fund (NIF) said: "We need to be more resilient, we need to build up capacity." A report by Lakestar (https://lnkd.in/ecYjf73G) shows: "European Nato partners are not doing enough to build a credible deterrence position and have scaled back defence spending 30 per cent since the 1990s..." and as it relates to investment in new technologies, "between 2011 and 2022, European governments allocated only about 4 per cent of their defence spending to research and development, compared with 14 per cent in the US." #defensetech #defenseinnovation https://lnkd.in/eP4td34v

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