Emmanuel Letouzé, PhD

Chapter on UNESCO-MILA book on « Missing Links in AI Governance  »

While the fighting in the Syrian civil war has mostly stopped, an estimated 5.6 million Syrians remain living in neighboring countries1. Of these, an estimated 1.5 million are sheltering in Lebanon. Ongoing efforts by organizations such as UNHCR to support the refugee population are often ineffective in reaching those most in need. According to UNHCR's 2019 Vulnerability Assessment of Syrian Refugees Report (VASyR), only 44% of the Syrian refugee families eligible for multipurpose cash… Mostrar más

While the fighting in the Syrian civil war has mostly stopped, an estimated 5.6 million Syrians remain living in neighboring countries1. Of these, an estimated 1.5 million are sheltering in Lebanon. Ongoing efforts by organizations such as UNHCR to support the refugee population are often ineffective in reaching those most in need. According to UNHCR's 2019 Vulnerability Assessment of Syrian Refugees Report (VASyR), only 44% of the Syrian refugee families eligible for multipurpose cash assistance were provided with help, as the others were not captured in the data. In this project, we are investigating the use of non-traditional data, derived from Facebook advertising data, for population level vulnerability assessment. In a nutshell, Facebook provides advertisers with an estimate of how many of its users match certain targeting criteria, e.g., how many Facebook users currently living in Beirut are “living abroad,” aged 18–34, speak Arabic, and primarily use an iOS device. We evaluate the use of such audience estimates to describe the spatial variation in the socioeconomic situation of Syrian refugees across Lebanon. Using data from VASyR as ground truth, we find that iOS device usage explains 90% of the out-of-sample variance in poverty across the Lebanese governorates. However, evaluating predictions at a smaller spatial resolution also indicate limits related to sparsity, as Facebook, for privacy reasons, does not provide audience estimates for fewer than 1,000 users. Furthermore, comparing the population distribution by age and gender of Facebook users with that of the Syrian refugees from VASyR suggests an under-representation of Syrian women on the social media platform. This work adds to growing body of literature demonstrating the value of anonymous and aggregate Facebook advertising data for analysing large-scale humanitarian crises and migration events.

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Accurate intercensal estimates of energy access to track Sustainable Development Goal 7

Neeti Pokhriyal, Emmanuel Letouzé & Soroush Vosoughi

Abstract:

Intercensal estimates of access to electricity and clean cooking fuels at policy planning microregions in a country are essential for understanding their evolution and tracking progress towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 7. Surveys are prohibitively expensive to get such intercensal microestimates. Existing works… Mostrar más

Accurate intercensal estimates of energy access to track Sustainable Development Goal 7

Neeti Pokhriyal, Emmanuel Letouzé & Soroush Vosoughi

Abstract:

Intercensal estimates of access to electricity and clean cooking fuels at policy planning microregions in a country are essential for understanding their evolution and tracking progress towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 7. Surveys are prohibitively expensive to get such intercensal microestimates. Existing works, mainly, focus on electrification rates, make predictions at the coarse spatial granularity, and generalize poorly to intercensal periods. Limited works focus on estimating clean cooking fuel access, which is one of the crucial indicators for measuring progress towards SDG 7. We propose a novel spatio-temporal multi-target Bayesian regression model that provides accurate intercensal microestimates for household electrification and clean cooking fuel access by combining multiple types of earth-observation data, census, and surveys. Our model’s estimates are produced for Senegal for 2020 at policy planning microregions, and they explain 77% and 86% of variation in regional aggregates for electrification and clean fuels, respectively, when validated against the most recent survey. The diagnostic nature of our microestimates reveals a slow evolution and significant lack of clean cooking fuel access in both urban and rural areas in Senegal. It underscores the challenge of expanding energy access even in urban areas owing to their rapid population growth. Owing to the timeliness and accuracy of our microestimates, they can help plan interventions by local governments or track the attainment of SDGs when no ground-truth data are available.

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Abstract

The near-ubiquitous use of mobile devices generates mobility data that can paint pictures of urban behavior at unprecedented levels of granularity and complexity. In the current period of intense sociopolitical polarization, mobility data can help reveal which urban spaces serve to attenuate or accentuate socioeconomic divides. If urban spaces served to bridge class divides, people from different socioeconomic groups would be prone to mingle in areas further removed from their… Mostrar más

Abstract

The near-ubiquitous use of mobile devices generates mobility data that can paint pictures of urban behavior at unprecedented levels of granularity and complexity. In the current period of intense sociopolitical polarization, mobility data can help reveal which urban spaces serve to attenuate or accentuate socioeconomic divides. If urban spaces served to bridge class divides, people from different socioeconomic groups would be prone to mingle in areas further removed from their homes, creating opportunities for sharing experiences in the physical world. In an opposing scenario, people would remain among neighbors and peers, creating “local urban bubbles” that reflect and reinforce social inequities and their adverse effects on social mixity, cohesion, and trust. These questions are especially salient in cities with high levels of socioeconomic inequality, such as Mexico City.Building on a joint research project between Data-Pop Alliance and Oxfam Mexico titled “Mundos Paralelos” [Parallel Worlds], this paper leverages privacy-preserving mobility data to unveil the unequal use and appropriation of urban spaces by the inhabitants of Mexico City. This joint research harnesses a year (2018–2019) of anonymized mobility data to perform mobility and behavioral analysis of specific groups at high spatial resolution. Its main findings suggest that Mexico City is a spatially fragmented, even segregated city: although distinct socioeconomic groups do meet in certain spaces, a pattern emerges where certain points of interest are exclusive to the high- and low-income groups analyzed in this paper. The results demonstrate that spatial inequality in Mexico City is marked by unequal access to government services and cultural sites, which translates into unequal experiences of urban life and biased access to the city. The paper concludes with a series of public policy recommendations to foster a more equitable and inclusive appropriation of public space. Mostrar menos

Empowering society by reusing privately held data for official statistics — A European approach

FINAL REPORT PREPARED BY THE HIGH-LEVEL EXPERT GROUP ON FACILITATING THE USE OF NEW DATA SOURCES FOR OFFICIAL STATISTICS.

"Eurostat has set up an expert group on ‘Facilitating the use of new data sources for official statistics’ to reflect on these new opportunities and make recommendations to enhance the reuse of private sector data in official statistics under the European strategy… Mostrar más

Empowering society by reusing privately held data for official statistics — A European approach

FINAL REPORT PREPARED BY THE HIGH-LEVEL EXPERT GROUP ON FACILITATING THE USE OF NEW DATA SOURCES FOR OFFICIAL STATISTICS.

"Eurostat has set up an expert group on ‘Facilitating the use of new data sources for official statistics’ to reflect on these new opportunities and make recommendations to enhance the reuse of private sector data in official statistics under the European strategy for data. In this way, statistical authorities will strengthen society by providing more and better statistics that respond to evolving needs. The term ‘reuse’ reflects the fact that measures enabling statistical authorities to extract statistical information from data do not necessarily involve any actual transfer of data and can include a wide range of other technical solutions. The term is also a reminder that, while data are primarily collected and used for one purpose (business), reusing them for a different purpose (official statistics) entails additional challenges in a variety of areas ranging from methodological and technical issues to legal and ethical questions." Mostrar menos

Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems employ learning algorithms that adapt to their users and environment, with learning either pre-trained or allowed to adapt during deployment. Because AI can optimize its behavior, a unit’s factory model behavior can diverge after release, often at the perceived expense of safety, reliability, and human controllability. Since the Industrial Revolution, trust has ultimately resided
in regulatory systems set up by governments and standards bodies. Research… Mostrar más

Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems employ learning algorithms that adapt to their users and environment, with learning either pre-trained or allowed to adapt during deployment. Because AI can optimize its behavior, a unit’s factory model behavior can diverge after release, often at the perceived expense of safety, reliability, and human controllability. Since the Industrial Revolution, trust has ultimately resided
in regulatory systems set up by governments and standards bodies. Research into human interactions with autonomous machines demonstrates a shift in the locus of trust: we must trust non-deterministic systems such as AI to self-regulate, albeit within boundaries. This radical shift is one of the biggest issues facing the deployment of AI in the European region. Mostrar menos

Professionals in demography and global health have varying degrees of understanding about big data and the advantages and risks of using it in their work. This Population Bulletin provides an accessible resource on this technical topic, examining innovative ways big data is being used and how we can start thinking differently about data.

DEMOGRAPHY| JANUARY 12 2021

Analyzing the Effect of Time in Migration Measurement Using Georeferenced Digital Trace Data

Lee Fiorio; Emilio Zagheni; Guy Abel; Johnathan Hill; Gabriel Pestre; Emmanuel Letouzé; Jixuan Cai
Demography… Mostrar más

DEMOGRAPHY| JANUARY 12 2021

Analyzing the Effect of Time in Migration Measurement Using Georeferenced Digital Trace Data

Lee Fiorio; Emilio Zagheni; Guy Abel; Johnathan Hill; Gabriel Pestre; Emmanuel Letouzé; Jixuan Cai
Demography 8917630.

https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-8917630

https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/news_events_6123/news_press_releases_4630/press/new_framework_enables_migration_estimation_over_varying_time_scales_8715

ABSTRACT:

Georeferenced digital trace data offer unprecedented flexibility in migration estimation. Because of their high temporal granularity, many migration estimates can be generated from the same data set by changing the definition parameters. Yet despite the growing application of digital trace data to migration research, strategies for taking advantage of their temporal granularity remain largely underdeveloped. In this paper, we provide a general framework for converting digital trace data into estimates of migration transitions and for systematically analyzing their variation along a quasi-continuous time scale, analogous to a survival function. From migration theory, we develop two simple hypotheses regarding how we expect our estimated migration transition functions to behave. We then test our hypotheses on simulated data and empirical data from three platforms in two internal migration contexts: geotagged Tweets and Gowalla check-ins in the United States, and cell-phone call detail records in Senegal. Our results demonstrate the need for evaluating the internal consistency of migration estimates derived from digital trace data before using them in substantive research. At the same time, however, common patterns across our three empirical data sets point to an emergent research agenda using digital trace data to study the specific functional relationship between estimates of migration and time and how this relationship varies by geography and population characteristics. Mostrar menos

Nowadays, 23% of the world population lives in multi-million cities. In these metropolises, criminal
activity is much higher and violent than in either small cities or rural areas. thus, understanding what
factors influence urban crime in big cities is a pressing need. Seminal studies analyse crime records
through historical panel data or analysis of historical patterns combined with ecological factor and exploratory mapping. More recently, machine learning methods have provided… Mostrar más

Nowadays, 23% of the world population lives in multi-million cities. In these metropolises, criminal
activity is much higher and violent than in either small cities or rural areas. thus, understanding what
factors influence urban crime in big cities is a pressing need. Seminal studies analyse crime records
through historical panel data or analysis of historical patterns combined with ecological factor and exploratory mapping. More recently, machine learning methods have provided informed crime prediction over time. However, previous studies have focused on a single city at a time, considering only a limited number of factors (such as socio‐economical characteristics) and often at large in a single city. Hence, our understanding of the factors influencing crime across cultures and cities is very limited. Here we propose a Bayesian model to explore how violent and property crimes are related not only to socio‐economic factors but also to the built environmental (e.g. land use) and mobility characteristics of neighbourhoods. to that end, we analyse crime at small areas and integrate multiple open data sources with mobile phone traces to compare how the different factors correlate with crime in diverse cities, namely Boston, Bogotá, Los Angeles and Chicago. We find that the combined use of socio‐economic conditions, mobility information and physical characteristics of the neighbourhood effectively explain the emergence of crime, and improve the performance of the traditional approaches. However, we show that the socio‐ecological factors of neighbourhoods relate to crime very differently from one city to another. Thus there is clearly no “one fits all” model. Mostrar menos

The coronavirus 2019-2020 pandemic (COVID-19) poses unprecedented challenges for governments and societies around the world. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have proven to be critical for delaying and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. This includes testing and tracing, bans on large gatherings, non-essential business and school and university closures, international and domestic mobility restrictions and physical isolation, and total lockdowns of regions and countries. Decision-making… Mostrar más

The coronavirus 2019-2020 pandemic (COVID-19) poses unprecedented challenges for governments and societies around the world. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have proven to be critical for delaying and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. This includes testing and tracing, bans on large gatherings, non-essential business and school and university closures, international and domestic mobility restrictions and physical isolation, and total lockdowns of regions and countries. Decision-making and evaluation or such interventions during all stages of the pandemic lifecycle require specific, reliable and timely data not only about infections, but also about human behavior, especially mobility and physical co-presence. We argue that mobile phone data, when used properly and carefully, represents a critical arsenal of tools for supporting public health actions across early, middle, and late-stage phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we outline the ways in which different types of mobile phone data can help to better target and design measures to contain and slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We identify the key reasons why this is not happening on a much broader scale, and we give recom- mendations on how to make mobile phone data work against the virus.

Co-Authors:
Nuria Oliver, Bruno Lepri, Harald Sterly, Renaud Lambiotte, Sébastien Delataille, Marco De Nadai, Emmanuel Letouzé, Albert Ali Salah, Richard Benjamins, Ciro Cattuto, Vittoria Colizza, Nicolas de Cordes, Samuel P. Fraiberger, Till Koebe, Sune Lehmann, Juan Murillo, Alex Pentland, Phuong N Pham, Frédéric Pivetta, Jari Saramäki, Samuel V. Scarpino, Michele Tizzoni, Stefaan Verhulst, Patrick Vinck.

Cite as: N. Oliver et al., Sci. Adv 10.1126/sciadv.abc0764 (2020). Mostrar menos

Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye, Sébastien Gambs, Vincent Blondel, Geoffrey Canright, Nicolas de Cordes, Sébastien Deletaille, Kenth Engø-Monsen, Manuel Garcia-Herranz, Jake Kendall, Cameron Kerry, Gautier Krings, Emmanuel Letouzé, Miguel Luengo-Oroz, Nuria Oliver, Luc Rocher, Alex Rutherford, Zbigniew Smoreda, Jessica Steele, Erik Wetter, Alex “Sandy” Pentland & Linus Bengtsson

To cite: de Montjoye, Y.-A. et al. On the privacy-conscientious use of mobile phone data. Sci. Data. 5:180286 doi:… Mostrar más

Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye, Sébastien Gambs, Vincent Blondel, Geoffrey Canright, Nicolas de Cordes, Sébastien Deletaille, Kenth Engø-Monsen, Manuel Garcia-Herranz, Jake Kendall, Cameron Kerry, Gautier Krings, Emmanuel Letouzé, Miguel Luengo-Oroz, Nuria Oliver, Luc Rocher, Alex Rutherford, Zbigniew Smoreda, Jessica Steele, Erik Wetter, Alex “Sandy” Pentland & Linus Bengtsson

To cite: de Montjoye, Y.-A. et al. On the privacy-conscientious use of mobile phone data. Sci. Data. 5:180286 doi: 10.1038/sdata.2018.286 (2018).

The breadcrumbs we leave behind when using our mobile phones—who somebody calls, for how long, and from where—contain unprecedented insights about us and our societies. Researchers have compared the recent availability of large-scale behavioral datasets, such as the ones generated by mobile phones, to the invention of the microscope, giving rise to the new field of computational social science. This paper describes 4 ways mobile phone data can be accessed in a privacy-conscientious manner. Mostrar menos

“The rise of “Big Data” over the past decade and the more recent emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) have stirred many hopes and, increasingly, fears, about the fate of humankind in the “fourth industrial revolution”. Are we heading towards brighter or darker times? Do big data and AI pose existential threats to democracy, or do they offer the possibility of building a future where decisions will be more rational, policies more efficient, processes fairer, politicians more accountable?… Mostrar más

“The rise of “Big Data” over the past decade and the more recent emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) have stirred many hopes and, increasingly, fears, about the fate of humankind in the “fourth industrial revolution”. Are we heading towards brighter or darker times? Do big data and AI pose existential threats to democracy, or do they offer the possibility of building a future where decisions will be more rational, policies more efficient, processes fairer, politicians more accountable? (..) In this paper, we aim to sketch an ambitious and optimistic vision and offer some reflections on how human societies could “leverage” AI, not just by using it but also by applying some of its key principles to build a ‘Human AI” that reflects and serves the objectives and drivers of human development in the data era.” Mostrar menos

In this paper we provide an overview of available technical solutions to enhance fairness, accountability, and transparency in algorithmic decision-making. Doing this, we also describe the Open Algorithms (OPAL) project as a step towards realizing the vision of a world where data and algorithms are used as lenses and levers in support of democracy and development.

The unprecedented availability of large-scale human behavioral data is profoundly changing the world we live in. Researchers, companies, governments, financial institutions, non-governmental organizations and also citizen groups are actively experimenting, innovating and adapting algorithmic decision-making tools to understand global patterns of human behavior and provide decision support to tackle problems of societal importance. In this chapter, we focus our attention on social good… Mostrar más

The unprecedented availability of large-scale human behavioral data is profoundly changing the world we live in. Researchers, companies, governments, financial institutions, non-governmental organizations and also citizen groups are actively experimenting, innovating and adapting algorithmic decision-making tools to understand global patterns of human behavior and provide decision support to tackle problems of societal importance. In this chapter, we focus our attention on social good decision-making algorithms, that is algorithms strongly influencing decision-making and resource optimization of public goods, such as public health, safety, access to finance and fair employment. Through an analysis of specific use cases and approaches, we highlight both the positive opportunities that are created through data-driven algorithmic decision-making, and the potential negative consequences that practitioners should be aware of and address in order to truly realize the potential of this emergent field. We elaborate on the need for these algorithms to provide transparency and accountability, preserve privacy and be tested and evaluated in context, by means of living lab approaches involving citizens. Finally, we turn to the requirements which would make it possible to leverage the predictive power of data-driven human behavior analysis while ensuring transparency, accountability, and civic participation Mostrar menos

« Bien informés, les hommes sont des citoyens ; mal informés, ils deviennent des sujets », écrivait Alfred Sauvy. Avec seulement 0,5 % de l’aide publique au développement (APD) affectée au soutien à la production de statistiques, la statistique officielle fait figure de parent pauvre de l’aide internationale. L’Afrique souffre en particulier d’un déficit de données socio-économiques et démographiques qualifié de « tragédie statistique » par certains experts. Les attentes et les possibilités… Mostrar más

« Bien informés, les hommes sont des citoyens ; mal informés, ils deviennent des sujets », écrivait Alfred Sauvy. Avec seulement 0,5 % de l’aide publique au développement (APD) affectée au soutien à la production de statistiques, la statistique officielle fait figure de parent pauvre de l’aide internationale. L’Afrique souffre en particulier d’un déficit de données socio-économiques et démographiques qualifié de « tragédie statistique » par certains experts. Les attentes et les possibilités sont grandes à l’ère de la dataification – ou mise en données – de nos vies et de nos sociétés, fruit et facteur de la transition digitale." Mostrar menos

Despite its growing popularity as a much-needed “bottom-up” solution, data literacy is ill-defined or ambiguous at best. Are current conceptualizations of ‘data literacy’ adequate—or do they put too much emphasis on technical requirements and fail to challenge deeper structural and more politically controversial issues? What does it mean to be “data literate” in an age where data is everywhere— and how does it differ from being literate? Why and how should it be promoted? How might ‘data… Mostrar más

Despite its growing popularity as a much-needed “bottom-up” solution, data literacy is ill-defined or ambiguous at best. Are current conceptualizations of ‘data literacy’ adequate—or do they put too much emphasis on technical requirements and fail to challenge deeper structural and more politically controversial issues? What does it mean to be “data literate” in an age where data is everywhere— and how does it differ from being literate? Why and how should it be promoted? How might ‘data literacy’ promotion empower individuals and communities to keep governments accountable, solve local problems, and navigate their own data ecosystems? In a world of ubiquitous digital connectivity and rising inequity, should we in fact be concerned with and talking about data inclusion instead? Mostrar menos

The wealth of information provided by real-time streams of data has paved the way for life-changing technological advancements, improving the quality of life of people in many ways, from facilitating knowledge exchange to self-understanding and self-monitoring. Moreover, the analysis of anonymized and aggregated large-scale human behavioral data offers new possibilities to understand global patterns of human behavior and helps decision makers tackle problems of societal importance. In this… Mostrar más

The wealth of information provided by real-time streams of data has paved the way for life-changing technological advancements, improving the quality of life of people in many ways, from facilitating knowledge exchange to self-understanding and self-monitoring. Moreover, the analysis of anonymized and aggregated large-scale human behavioral data offers new possibilities to understand global patterns of human behavior and helps decision makers tackle problems of societal importance. In this article, we highlight the potential societal benefits derived from big data applications with a focus on citizen safety and crime prevention. First, we introduce the emergent new research area of big data for social good. Next, we detail a case study tackling the problem of crime hotspot classification, that is, the classification of which areas in a city are more likely to witness crimes based on past data. In the proposed approach we use demographic information along with human mobility characteristics as derived from anonymized and aggregated mobile network data. The hypothesis that aggregated human behavioral data captured from the mobile network infrastructure, in combination with basic demographic information, can be used to predict crime is supported by our findings. Our models, built on and evaluated against real crime data from London, obtain accuracy of almost 70% when classifying whether a specific area in the city will be a crime hotspot or not in the following month. Mostrar menos

“The Law, Politics and Ethics of Cell Phone Data Analytics” examines Call Detail Records (CDRs), a record that includes among other data, the starting time of the call (or message), its duration, the originating and receiving phone numbers, and the benefits and risks involved in their sharing and use. CDRs are essentially used for billing, monitoring voice and data usage, and understanding and targeting customers based on their cell phone consumption patterns, but has recently been recognized… Mostrar más

“The Law, Politics and Ethics of Cell Phone Data Analytics” examines Call Detail Records (CDRs), a record that includes among other data, the starting time of the call (or message), its duration, the originating and receiving phone numbers, and the benefits and risks involved in their sharing and use. CDRs are essentially used for billing, monitoring voice and data usage, and understanding and targeting customers based on their cell phone consumption patterns, but has recently been recognized for the insight they provide into human behavior, movements, and social interactions. As the proposed use of CDR expands well beyond their original purpose, certain ethical and legal questions need to be addressed. The paper summarizes current legal frameworks before exploring structural socio-political parameters and incentives structuring the sharing of CDRs, proposing guiding ethical principles, and discussing operational options and requirements.


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The White Paper aims to contribute to the ongoing and future debate about the relationships between Big Data, official statistics and development—primarily by revisiting and reframing the terms and parameters of this debate. Most current discussions on Big Data mainly focus on if and how it can contribute to producing faster, cheaper, more frequent and different development indicators for better policies. This paper takes a different starting point. It emphasizes the fundamental political… Mostrar más

The White Paper aims to contribute to the ongoing and future debate about the relationships between Big Data, official statistics and development—primarily by revisiting and reframing the terms and parameters of this debate. Most current discussions on Big Data mainly focus on if and how it can contribute to producing faster, cheaper, more frequent and different development indicators for better policies. This paper takes a different starting point. It emphasizes the fundamental political nature of the debate, encouraging us to go and think beyond issues of measurement and stressing the centrality of politics beyond policy. The paper argues that, in fact, Big Data needs to be seen as an entirely new ecosystem comprising new data, new tools and methods, and new actors motivated by their own incentives, and should stir serious strategic rethinking and rewiring on the part of the official statistical community.

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The volume and variety of digital data have grown in recent years, as have analytics capacities — a phenomenon dubbed ‘big data’. What drives the promise of big data, what are the risks and criticisms, and how can development benefit from the ‘data revolution’?

In my view, Big Data can fuel a Data Revolution. Much of its appeal stems from its potential — true or false — to find and refine data to yield ‘insights’ about human populations that can power more agile and better targeted policies and programmes. I have at least three issues with this general line of reasoning, and propose instead a “knowledge security-centred” approach to Big Data for human development.

"More recently, social scientists and engineers have begun using new techniques to capture user
preferences and market information from underserved communities. These include behavioral
experiments, sensing devices, big data analytics, participatory data collection methods, and
qualitative approaches. This white paper seeks to provide an overview of the many different
tools used for unveiling the demand for new products and services in developing countries."

What’s at stake: The popularity of Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) in academia has led to an impressive increase in the amounts governments and international institutions spend on providing evidence from RCTs. While valued for their research design, they remain criticized for having little predictive value beyond the context of the original experiment and the difficulties they face in evaluating complex interventions.

’Google knows more, or is in a position to know more, about France than INSEE [National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies]’, two French scientists wrote in an op-ed published in Le Monde in January. In the context of developing countries, the question raised by this bold claim is: could Big Data help us know more about poverty and welfare, including, or perhaps especially, in places where the dearth of traditional data is often turning poverty monitoring and forecasting into an… Mostrar más

’Google knows more, or is in a position to know more, about France than INSEE [National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies]’, two French scientists wrote in an op-ed published in Le Monde in January. In the context of developing countries, the question raised by this bold claim is: could Big Data help us know more about poverty and welfare, including, or perhaps especially, in places where the dearth of traditional data is often turning poverty monitoring and forecasting into an exercise in guesstimation? Could the Big Data revolution contribute to fixing part of the ‘statistical tragedy’? Mostrar menos

**I am not the author of this publication but did provide research and support during its preparation over the course of the summer of 2012 as a technology & big data consultant, supervising and/or writing about 10 case studies that fed into the report. The Report's Managing editors were Rahul Chandran & Andrew Thow (OCHA) with Editors Daniel Gilman & Andrea Noyes (OCHA). The team of researchers and consultants was: Mark Bailey, Ivo Bottcher, Grant Gordon, Emmanuel Letouzé, Lezlie Morinière… Mostrar más

**I am not the author of this publication but did provide research and support during its preparation over the course of the summer of 2012 as a technology & big data consultant, supervising and/or writing about 10 case studies that fed into the report. The Report's Managing editors were Rahul Chandran & Andrew Thow (OCHA) with Editors Daniel Gilman & Andrea Noyes (OCHA). The team of researchers and consultants was: Mark Bailey, Ivo Bottcher, Grant Gordon, Emmanuel Letouzé, Lezlie Morinière, Angela Raven-Roberts, Mark Turner, Imogen Wall and Lauren Young. See also Patrick Meier's review & summary of the Report: http://irevolution.net/2013/04/09/humanitarianism-network-age/ Mostrar menos

Paper part of USAID-UNDP-IPI Report on "New Technology and the Prevention
of Violence and Conflict".

What’s at stake: The Big Data enthusiasts compare it to a revolution. For the agnostic observer, it is interesting to move beyond this general and somewhat speculative discussion and get a sense of what these massive quantities of information produced by and about people, things, and their interactions can and cannot do. In a previous review, we discussed recent applications of Big Data in the field of social science research. In this review, we consider whether and how Big Data can help… Mostrar más

What’s at stake: The Big Data enthusiasts compare it to a revolution. For the agnostic observer, it is interesting to move beyond this general and somewhat speculative discussion and get a sense of what these massive quantities of information produced by and about people, things, and their interactions can and cannot do. In a previous review, we discussed recent applications of Big Data in the field of social science research. In this review, we consider whether and how Big Data can help complement and refine official statistics and offer ways to develop alternative measures of welfare. Mostrar menos

The worry today is not that investment in technology might not be as productive as we thought (the so-called computer paradox), but the fact that the economic value of the fast growing consumption and production of online data may not be adequately captured in official statistics. While GDP has always been an imperfect metric for welfare, a number of authors have wondered if this issue has not become worse in the information age.

"Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the Algerian Islamist militant behind the January 16th attack on a gas installation in southern Algeria, is an angry and busy man. One of his many nicknames, “Mr. Marlboro,” belies his cigarette-smuggling monopoly across the Sahel (other telling nicknames include “Laaouar”—meaning the One-eyed, the Prince, or the Uncatchable). Cigarettes, however, aren’t Belmokhtar’s only commercial commodity. He smuggles almost everything under the Saharan sun, from weapons to stolen cars… Mostrar más

"Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the Algerian Islamist militant behind the January 16th attack on a gas installation in southern Algeria, is an angry and busy man. One of his many nicknames, “Mr. Marlboro,” belies his cigarette-smuggling monopoly across the Sahel (other telling nicknames include “Laaouar”—meaning the One-eyed, the Prince, or the Uncatchable). Cigarettes, however, aren’t Belmokhtar’s only commercial commodity. He smuggles almost everything under the Saharan sun, from weapons to stolen cars to diamonds. But he is also a specialist in kidnapping Westerners and has allegedly received ransoms as high as $3 million a head"... Mostrar menos

"The graduation to middle-income status of demographic giants such as Nigeria has contributed to the observed near 20-fold increase in the share of the global poor found in MIFSs, from below 1% in 2005 to about 17% in 2010. Certainly, MIFSs have access to a larger array of private resource flows and may be more able to attract diaspora bonds, but it may also mean that they will receive less attention from donors. (...)

But perhaps the most fundamental shift is a conceptual one, and has… Mostrar más

"The graduation to middle-income status of demographic giants such as Nigeria has contributed to the observed near 20-fold increase in the share of the global poor found in MIFSs, from below 1% in 2005 to about 17% in 2010. Certainly, MIFSs have access to a larger array of private resource flows and may be more able to attract diaspora bonds, but it may also mean that they will receive less attention from donors. (...)

But perhaps the most fundamental shift is a conceptual one, and has to do with how state fragility is understood, how and why it is considered to “matter,” and consequently what can be done about it. State fragility had long been analyzed in terms of a government’s willingness and capacity to undertake some basic functions. Indicators assessing the soundness of policies and quality of institutions—chief of which is the World Bank CPIA—were then considered as not just useful proxies, which they remain, but as true measures of the crux of the issue. However, over the years, this “thin” (relatively narrow), conceptualization of state fragility (and governance) centered on considerations of efficiency and conformity has given way to a broader, “thicker” approach, which places the social contract between the state and the citizenry, the resulting legitimacy of the ruling leaders, and ultimately the country’s ability to withstand shocks—its resilience—at its center."
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By 2015, half of the world’s people living on less than USD 1.25 a day will be in fragile states. While poverty has decreased globally, progress on Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 1 is slower in fragile states than in other developing countries. Fragile states are also off-track to meet the rest of the MDGs by 2015.

Fragile situations became a central concern of the international development and security agenda in the 1990s. Since then, powerful forces have been influencing the causes… Mostrar más

By 2015, half of the world’s people living on less than USD 1.25 a day will be in fragile states. While poverty has decreased globally, progress on Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 1 is slower in fragile states than in other developing countries. Fragile states are also off-track to meet the rest of the MDGs by 2015.

Fragile situations became a central concern of the international development and security agenda in the 1990s. Since then, powerful forces have been influencing the causes and manifestations of fragility, including the combination of democratic aspirations, new technologies, demographic shifts and climate change. The last five years have been especially tumultuous, encompassing the 2008 food, fuel and financial crisis and the Arab Spring, which began in 2011.

These events have influenced the international debate on the nature, relevance and implications of fragility. While situations of fragility clearly have common elements – including poverty, inequality and vulnerability – how can we make sense of the great diversity in their national income, endowment in natural resources or historical trajectories? How do we move towards a more substantive concept of fragility that goes beyond a primary focus on the quality of government policies and institutions to include a broader picture of the economy and society?

This publication takes stock of i) the evolution of fragility as a concept, ii) analyses financial flows to and within fragile states between 2000 and 2010, and iii) identifies trends and issues that are likely to shape fragility in the years to come. Mostrar menos

From Afghanistan to Zimbabwe, fragile states face common challenges; But, paraphrasing Tolstoy’s line, “Every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way,” all fragile states are fragile in their own way.

"Data from social media and Ushahidi-style crowdsourcing platforms have emerged as possible ways to leverage cellphones to prevent conflict. (..) But there is another way cellphones could be leveraged in conflict settings: through the various types of data passively generated every time a device is used."

8 cartoons for IPI's Management Handbook for UN Peacekeeping Missions

Abstract
Innovations in technology and greater affordability of digital devices have presided over today’s Age of Big Data, an umbrella term for the explosion in the quantity and diversity of high frequency digital data. These data hold the potential—as yet largely untapped— to allow decision makers to track development progress, improve social protection, and understand where existing policies and programmes require adjustment.
Turning Big Data—call logs, mobile-banking transactions… Mostrar más

Abstract
Innovations in technology and greater affordability of digital devices have presided over today’s Age of Big Data, an umbrella term for the explosion in the quantity and diversity of high frequency digital data. These data hold the potential—as yet largely untapped— to allow decision makers to track development progress, improve social protection, and understand where existing policies and programmes require adjustment.
Turning Big Data—call logs, mobile-banking transactions, online user-generated content such as blog posts and Tweets, online searches, satellite images, etc.—into actionable information requires using computational techniques to unveil trends and patterns within and between these extremely large socioeconomic datasets. New insights gleaned from such data mining should complement official statistics, survey data, and information generated by Early Warning Systems, adding depth and nuances on human behaviours and experiences—and doing so in real time, thereby narrowing both information and time gaps.
With the promise come questions about the analytical value and thus policy relevance of this data—including concerns over the relevance of the data in developing country contexts, its representativeness, its reliability—as well as the overarching privacy issues of utilising personal data. This paper does not offer a grand theory of technology-driven social change in the Big Data era. Rather it aims to delineate the main concerns and challenges raised by “Big Data for Development” as concretely and openly as possible, and to suggest ways to address at least a few aspects of each.
It is important to recognise that Big Data and real-time analytics are no modern panacea for age-old development challenges. That said, the diffusion of data science to the realm of international development nevertheless constitutes a genuine opportunity to bring powerful new tools to the fight against poverty, hunger and disease. Mostrar menos

"A number of recently published studies and articles suggest that mining the Web may impact public health in ways that bear significance on Global Pulse’s approach to social impact monitoring in the digital age."

“The sexiest job in the next 10 years will be statistician” – says Hal Varian– “and I’m not kidding.” With increased connectivity, Internet usage and data availability a new world of statistical analysis has indeed opened up. Whether it is very high frequency data, or the vast amount of them (big data), there is a growing appetite for forecasting (or nowcasting) social and economic behaviors live. The possibilities offered are quasi infinite and truly in their infancy but a few firms and… Mostrar más

“The sexiest job in the next 10 years will be statistician” – says Hal Varian– “and I’m not kidding.” With increased connectivity, Internet usage and data availability a new world of statistical analysis has indeed opened up. Whether it is very high frequency data, or the vast amount of them (big data), there is a growing appetite for forecasting (or nowcasting) social and economic behaviors live. The possibilities offered are quasi infinite and truly in their infancy but a few firms and research groups are paving the way for a work that could be extremely relevant to investors, policymakers and researchers alike. Mostrar menos

This issue looks at longer-term migration challenges posed by a reshaping of the planet’s demographic map. In a recent report, the United Nations Population Division has revised upward its demographic projections. The new calculations, based on improved methods and the most recent demographic trends, essentially add a billion people to the population projection for 2100, and about 150 million to the projection for 2050. Among the factors behind the upward revisions is that fertility is not… Mostrar más

This issue looks at longer-term migration challenges posed by a reshaping of the planet’s demographic map. In a recent report, the United Nations Population Division has revised upward its demographic projections. The new calculations, based on improved methods and the most recent demographic trends, essentially add a billion people to the population projection for 2100, and about 150 million to the projection for 2050. Among the factors behind the upward revisions is that fertility is not declining as rapidly as expected in some poor countries, and has shown a slight increase in many wealthier countries. According to the UN experts, much of the projected rise will occur in a group of high-fertility countries—defined as those where the average woman has more than 1.5 daughters. Mostrar menos

"On a recent subway ride to work, I decided to catch up with some reading on my iPhone (instead of aimlessly fiddling with it), and came across three articles that linked very well with the things I, and all of us on the Global Pulse team, spend time thinking about. For me, the takeaways from the articles were that innovation offers great promise, but fulfilling that promise for the greater good takes both intent and capacity."

Political cartoons published on Rue89 since April 2011, a French news website (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rue_89), voted “Best Foreign Site” by the Online News Association in 2012.

Weekly or so political cartoons or strips published on StuffExpatAidWorkersLike on UN Task Forces and more. http://stuffexpataidworkerslike.com

Executive Summary
This study reviews the potential for expanding fiscal space to support human development objectives along its four main ‘pillars’: Domestic revenue, Official Development Aid (ODA), borrowing, and increased efficiency and reallocation, in light of Ghana’s recent socio-economic performance and the challenges ahead.
The key conclusion of our analysis of prevailing constraints, opportunities, and uncertainties—including the implications of the exploitation of oil and of the… Mostrar más

Executive Summary
This study reviews the potential for expanding fiscal space to support human development objectives along its four main ‘pillars’: Domestic revenue, Official Development Aid (ODA), borrowing, and increased efficiency and reallocation, in light of Ghana’s recent socio-economic performance and the challenges ahead.
The key conclusion of our analysis of prevailing constraints, opportunities, and uncertainties—including the implications of the exploitation of oil and of the recent ‘rebasing’ of GDP—is that the principal means for creating additional fiscal space to boost progress towards the MDGs by the 2015 benchmark will come from increased efficiency and reallocation of expenditures within the Ghanaian budget.Neither the prospect of oil revenues nor the conclusions of the recent rebasing exercise will fundamentally transform Ghana’s development prospects. Notwithstanding popular perceptions of an “oil boom,” there is little to indicate from present estimates that future oil revenue will resolve Ghana’s macro fiscal imbalances and structural weaknesses and be in itself ‘developmentally transformative’. The result of the recent ‘rebasing’ exercise— revising Ghana’s GDP upward by 75 percent—substantially reduces the relative impact of future oil revenues. The rebasing exercise suggests that the country’s actual tax effort is below 15% rather than around 25% as currently estimated, pointing to the potential for raising tax effort over the medium run. Similarly, the newly computed GDP estimates are likely to foster a rating upgrade and expand Ghana’s access to external finance on commercial terms in the medium run. At the same time, these estimates also reduce Ghana’s current net savings rate, reinforcing the conclusion that further deficit financing would be imprudent in the short and medium terms. Mostrar menos

"Migration not infrequently gets a bad press. Negative stereotypes portraying migrants as ‘stealing our jobs’ or ‘scrounging off the taxpayer’ abound in sections of the media and public opinion, es- pecially in times of recession. For others, the word ‘migrant’ may evoke images of people at their most vulnerable. This year’s Human Development Report, Overcoming Barriers: Human Mobility and Development, challenges such stereotypes. It seeks to broaden and rebalance perceptions of migration to… Mostrar más

"Migration not infrequently gets a bad press. Negative stereotypes portraying migrants as ‘stealing our jobs’ or ‘scrounging off the taxpayer’ abound in sections of the media and public opinion, es- pecially in times of recession. For others, the word ‘migrant’ may evoke images of people at their most vulnerable. This year’s Human Development Report, Overcoming Barriers: Human Mobility and Development, challenges such stereotypes. It seeks to broaden and rebalance perceptions of migration to reflect a more complex and highly variable reality." Mostrar menos

Abstract:
This paper presents empirical estimates of a gravity model of bilateral migration that properly
accounts for non-linearities and tackles causality issues through an instrumental variables approach. In contrast to the existing literature, which is limited to OECD data, we have estimated our model using a matrix of bilateral migration stocks for 127 countries. We find that the inverted-U relationship between income at origin and migration found by other authors survives the more… Mostrar más

Abstract:
This paper presents empirical estimates of a gravity model of bilateral migration that properly
accounts for non-linearities and tackles causality issues through an instrumental variables approach. In contrast to the existing literature, which is limited to OECD data, we have estimated our model using a matrix of bilateral migration stocks for 127 countries. We find that the inverted-U relationship between income at origin and migration found by other authors survives the more demanding bilateral specification but does not survive both instrumentation and introduction of controls for the geographical and cultural proximity between country pairs. We also evaluate the effect of migration on origin and destination country income using the geographically determined component of migration as a source of exogenous variation and fail to find a significant effect of migration on origin or destination income. Mostrar menos

This report examines the challenges of recovery from three angles. First, it looks at indigenous drivers of economic recovery. How best can the capacities and institutions that have survived a conflict be nurtured and reinforced? How can the efforts and initiatives of households, communities and enterprises be strengthened as they strive to rebuild their lives at the end of a conflict? Indigenous drivers provide the most viable platform on which to base post-war recovery efforts and… Mostrar más

This report examines the challenges of recovery from three angles. First, it looks at indigenous drivers of economic recovery. How best can the capacities and institutions that have survived a conflict be nurtured and reinforced? How can the efforts and initiatives of households, communities and enterprises be strengthened as they strive to rebuild their lives at the end of a conflict? Indigenous drivers provide the most viable platform on which to base post-war recovery efforts and international support. (..)
Second, the report examines the macroeconomic policies that post-conflict countries can deploy in pursuit of recovery. When war ends, countries face serious macroeconomic problems including mas- sive unemployment, moderate to high inflation, chronic fiscal deficits, high levels of external and domestic debt and low domestic revenue. Successful economic recovery subsequently involves the challenging tasks of steering a course that manages inflation whilst attaining respectable growth, makes the best use of aid, builds a conducive environment for private investment and attains reason- able fiscal autonomy. Fortunately, there is extensive experience to draw on from many countries that have negotiated post-conflict recovery.
Third, the report analyses the role of the state in the economic recovery process. After war, the recov- ery and rehabilitation of the state itself is a priority, particularly because a functioning state is essen- tial for peace consolidation. The governance and institutional needs that are critical both to economic recovery and peace consolidation include: restoring effective government control over public finances; reconstituting mechanisms for oversight and accountability; recreating a professional public adminis- tration; and rebuilding representative and inclusive political mechanisms and institutions." Mostrar menos

Extract:
"A fiscal rule that recognizes the distinction between current and capital expenditure line items in the budget will ensure that fiscal restraint does not discourage growth in the aggregate public capital stock. While some allowances may be made for negative current deficits during a development transformation, with external grant financing making up the shortfall, the long-term fiscal framework must plan for all such expenditures to be financed entirely out of current revenues… Mostrar más

Extract:
"A fiscal rule that recognizes the distinction between current and capital expenditure line items in the budget will ensure that fiscal restraint does not discourage growth in the aggregate public capital stock. While some allowances may be made for negative current deficits during a development transformation, with external grant financing making up the shortfall, the long-term fiscal framework must plan for all such expenditures to be financed entirely out of current revenues. This is a non negotiable requirement for a prudent long-term fiscal policy." Mostrar menos

Extract:
"There is inconclusive evidence on whether or not public investment in infrastructure has a significant positive impact on growth. However, there is a strong consensus on the positive effect of infrastructure investment on productivity and output in different regional and sectoral settings. This suggests that well designed public investments, including infrastructure, do have a direct positive impact on the MDGs."