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Oceanography of the
Mediterranean Sea
This page intentionally left blank
Oceanography of the
Mediterranean Sea
An Introductory Guide

Edited by
Katrin Schroeder
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche-Istituto di
Scienze Marine (CNR-ISMAR), Venezia, Italy

Jacopo Chiggiato
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche-Istituto di
Scienze Marine (CNR-ISMAR), Venezia, Italy
Elsevier
Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, Netherlands
The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom
50 Hampshire Street, 5th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any

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and our arrangements with organizations such as the Copyright Clearance Center and the
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This book and the individual contributions contained in it are

protected under copyright by the Publisher (other than as may be
noted herein).

Notices
Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and
experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional
practices, or medical treatment may become necessary.

Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and
knowledge in evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or
experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they
should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties
for whom they have a professional responsibility.
To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors,
contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to
persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or
from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions, or ideas
contained in the material herein.

ISBN: 978-0-12-823692-5

For information on all Elsevier publications visit our

website at https://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals

Publisher: Candice Janco

Acquisitions Editor: Peter Llewellyn
Editorial Project Manager: Sara Valentino
Production Project Manager: Kumar Anbazhagan
Cover Designer: Christian J. Bilbow

Typeset by TNQ Technologies

Contents
List of contributors ................................................................................. xv
About the editors................................................................................... xxi

CHAPTER 1 Introduction ............................................................ 1

Jacopo Chiggiato, Katrin Schroeder, Baptiste Mourre,
Elda Miramontes, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, Nadia Pinardi,
Evan Mason, Marta Álvarez and Fabio Trincardi

1.1 The Mediterranean Sea, a “miniature ocean”.......................... 1

1.2 Book structure and contents ................................................ 4
1.3 Learning objectives at a glance............................................ 6
References.............................................................................10
CHAPTER 2 Mediterranean Sea evolution and present-day
physiography .........................................................13
Elda Miramontes, Jacques Déverchère, Claudio Pellegrini
and Domenico Chiarella

2.1 Origin of the Mediterranean Sea .........................................13

2.1.1 Kinematic and geodynamical overview ....................... 13
2.1.2 Messinian salinity crisis: an extraordinary event ........... 17
2.2 Dimensions and seafloor topography....................................18
2.3 Sedimentation on continental margins..................................21
2.3.1 Tectonic movements and sedimentation....................... 26
2.3.2 Climate and sedimentation........................................ 29
2.4 Concluding remarks..........................................................32
References.............................................................................33
CHAPTER 3 Mediterranean climate: past, present and future .....41
Piero Lionello, Filippo Giorgi, Eelco Rohling and
Richard Seager

3.1 General climate and morphological characteristics of

the Mediterranean basin.....................................................41
3.2 Instrumental observations, satellites, and reanalyses ...............50
3.3 Climate models and their evolution .....................................52
3.3.1 Components of climate models and model
hierarchy ............................................................... 52
3.3.2 Climate modeling international programs .................... 54
3.4 Heat and moisture balance at Mediterranean regional
scale and relation to surface climate ....................................56
v
vi Contents

3.4.1 Heat budget............................................................ 56

3.4.2 Moisture budget ...................................................... 56
3.5 The atmospheric circulation of the subtropics and
mid-latitudes....................................................................57
3.5.1 The Mediterranean basin as a transitional region........... 57
3.5.2 The Mediterranean storm track .................................. 58
3.5.3 Remote factors affecting the Mediterranean climate ...... 59
3.6 Evolution of Mediterranean climate.....................................60
3.6.1 Astronomical forcing ............................................... 61
3.6.2 The formation of the Mediterranean and
geophysical forcing of Mediterranean climate .............. 65
3.6.3 The last million years: the glacial cycles ..................... 67
3.6.4 The last millennia: the historical period....................... 69
3.6.5 Anthropogenic climate change................................... 71
References.............................................................................74
CHAPTER 4 The forcings of the Mediterranean Sea and the
physical properties of its water masses ..................93
Katrin Schroeder, Toste Tanhua, Jacopo Chiggiato,
Dimitris Velaoras, Simon A. Josey,
Jesús Garcı´a Lafuente and Manuel Vargas-Yáñez

4.1 The forcings of the Mediterranean Sea.................................93

4.1.1 Exchanges through the strait of Gibraltar..................... 93
4.1.2 Climatological mean surface flux fields....................... 98
4.1.3 Temporal variability................................................100
4.2 The thermohaline properties of the Mediterranean water
masses.......................................................................... 101
4.2.1 Water masses, water types, and their
representation ........................................................103
4.2.2 Water mass analysis and the interpretation of the
TS diagram ...........................................................105
4.2.3 Water mass properties and distribution in the
Mediterranean Sea..................................................109
4.3 Other water mass tracers.................................................. 116
References........................................................................... 120
CHAPTER 5 Mediterranean Sea level ...................................... 125
Marta Marcos, Guy Wöppelmann, Francisco M. Calafat,
Matteo Vacchi and Angel Amores

5.1 General concepts about sea level....................................... 125

 Contents vii

5.2 Techniques for measuring sea level ................................... 127

5.2.1 Tide gauges...........................................................127
5.2.2 Satellite altimetry ...................................................133
5.2.3 Sea level proxies ....................................................138
5.2.4 Supplementary techniques for understanding sea
level changes.........................................................139
5.3 Past evolution of Mediterranean Sea level........................... 144
5.3.1 Holocene sea-level changes and the role of
isostatic-related subsidence ......................................144
5.3.2 Decadal to centennial sea level trends since the
late 19th century ....................................................146
5.4 Future projections of Mediterranean Sea level ..................... 150
References........................................................................... 151
CHAPTER 6 Surface wave and sea surface dynamics in the
Mediterranean ..................................................... 161
Piero Lionello, Gianmaria Sannino and Ivica Vilibic

6.1 General concepts about waves, definitions and

phenomenology.............................................................. 161
6.2 Tides and seiches ........................................................... 166
6.2.1 Generalities and basic definitions ..............................166
6.2.2 Tides in the Mediterranean Sea.................................171
6.3 Marine storms and coastal floods in the Mediterranean Sea ... 173
6.3.1 Storm surges .........................................................174
6.3.2 Planetary scale forcing of storm surges ......................175
6.3.3 Synoptic scale forcing of storm surges .......................178
6.3.4 Mesoscale forcing of storm surges.............................180
6.3.5 Prediction of storm surges........................................182
6.3.6 Coastal floods in future climates ...............................183
6.4 Wind generated waves..................................................... 185
6.4.1 Generalities and basic definitions ..............................185
6.4.2 Wind and waves regimes in the Mediterranean Sea ......188
6.4.3 Waves forecasts in the Mediterranean Sea ..................190
6.4.4 Past and future evolution of wind-generated waves ......191
6.5 Tsunamis ...................................................................... 192
6.5.1 Historical events in the Mediterranean Sea .................193
6.5.2 Source, propagation and tsunami models....................194
6.5.3 Meteotsunamis.......................................................195
6.5.4 Early warning systems ............................................196
References........................................................................... 200
viii Contents

CHAPTER 7 Dense and deep water formation processes

and Mediterranean overturning circulation ........... 209
Nadia Pinardi, Claude Estournel, Paola Cessi,
Romain Escudier and Vladyslav Lyubartsev

7.1 General concepts............................................................ 209

7.2 Dense/deep water characteristics and formation rates............ 211
7.3 Observations of deep/dense water formation in the
Mediterranean Sea.......................................................... 216
7.3.1 Convection and deep water formation in the
Gulf of Lion: five decades of observations..................216
7.3.2 Deep water formation in the eastern Mediterranean......221
7.3.3 Formation of intermediate water masses.....................224
7.3.4 Dense shelf water formation and cascading.................226
7.4 Theory of dense/deep water formation processes: general
concepts ....................................................................... 228
7.4.1 Theory of dense/deep water formation in the
open ocean............................................................229
7.4.2 Dense water formation on the shelf and their
cascading into the deep ocean ..................................235
7.5 Numerical modeling of deep/dense water formation ............. 238
7.5.1 Dense/deep water formation numerical modeling
in the open ocean ...................................................238
7.5.2 Dense/deep water cascading numerical modeling.........241
7.6 The Mediterranean overturning circulation: structure and
dynamics ...................................................................... 242
7.6.1 Zonal overturning...................................................242
7.6.2 Western Mediterranean overturning ...........................243
7.6.3 Eastern Mediterranean overturning ............................245
7.6.4 Comparison of the Mediterranean with the North
Atlantic overturning................................................247
7.7 Concluding remarks........................................................ 251
References........................................................................... 252
CHAPTER 8 Fronts, eddies and mesoscale circulation in
the Mediterranean Sea ......................................... 263
Evan Mason, Bàrbara Barceló-Llull,
Antonio Sánchez-Román, Daniel Rodrı´guez-Tarry,
Eugenio Cutolo, Antoine Delepoulle, Simón Ruiz and
Ananda Pascual

8.1 General concepts............................................................ 263

 Contents ix

8.2 Mediterranean Sea mesoscale variability derived from

satellite altimetry............................................................ 269
8.2.1 Mediterranean sea field dependency on the satellite
constellation ..........................................................270
8.2.2 Quantifying spatial and temporal variability................271
8.3 Eddies, fronts and vertical velocity.................................... 273
8.3.1 Vertical velocity and fronts in the Mediterranean Sea ...273
8.3.2 Eddy detection, tracking and characterisation..............274
8.4 Future perspectives ......................................................... 278
References........................................................................... 280
CHAPTER 9 Recent changes in the Mediterranean Sea ............ 289
Jacopo Chiggiato, Vincenzo Artale,
Xavier Durrieu de Madron, Katrin Schroeder,
Isabelle Taupier-Letage, Dimitris Velaoras and
Manuel Vargas-Yáñez

9.1 General concepts about Mediterranean water masses

and their circulation........................................................ 289
9.2 Changes observed in the Eastern Mediterranean
water masses ................................................................. 290
9.2.1 Formation of dense waters and the Eastern
Mediterranean Transient (EMT)................................290
9.2.2 Decadal oscillations of the upper thermohaline
circulation in the EMED..........................................294
9.2.3 Post-EMT status in the EMED .................................298
9.3 Changes observed in the Western Mediterranean
water masses ................................................................. 301
9.3.1 The twentieth century: gradual warming and
salinification..........................................................301
9.3.2 Changes during the 21st century: the Western
Mediterranean Transition (WMT)..............................303
9.4 Long-term trends and climate change................................. 310
9.5 Impact on the Mediterranean-Atlantic system...................... 313
9.5.1 Mediterranean outflow water (MOW) ........................313
9.5.2 Following the MOW signal: from the strait
of Gibraltar to the North Atlantic ..............................316
9.5.3 MOW trends and variability .....................................318
References........................................................................... 322
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x Contents

CHAPTER 10 Mediterranean observing and forecasting

systems ............................................................. 335
Baptiste Mourre, Emanuela Clementi, Giovanni Coppini,
Laurent Coppola, Gerasimos Korres, Antonio Novellino,
Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Pierre Daniel, George Zodiatis,
Katrin Schroeder and Joaquı´n Tintoré

10.1 The emergence of operational oceanography in the

Mediterranean Sea ........................................................ 335
10.2 The framework for ocean observing and the essential
ocean variables............................................................. 337
10.3 Observing systems operating in the Mediterranean Sea ....... 338
10.3.1 Satellites ........................................................... 339
10.3.2 In-situ and land-based remote sensing
observations: systems and international
coordination programs......................................... 343
10.3.3 Multi-platform regional and coastal observing
systems............................................................. 350
10.4 Forecasting the Mediterranean Sea .................................. 353
10.4.1 General concepts ................................................ 353
10.4.2 Illustration of some of the Mediterranean
regional ocean prediction systems.......................... 361
10.5 Data management and distribution................................... 365
10.6 Concluding remarks...................................................... 372
References........................................................................... 372
CHAPTER 11 Mediterranean Sea general biogeochemistry ...... 387
Marta Álvarez, Teresa S. Catalá, Giuseppe Civitarese,
Laurent Coppola, Abed E.R. Hassoun, Valeria Ibello,
Paolo Lazzari, Dominique Lefevre, Diego Macı´as,
Chiara Santinelli and Caroline Ulses

11.1 Dissolved oxygen distribution and ventilation.................... 387

11.1.1 Introduction....................................................... 387
11.1.2 Measurements of oxygen and models
contribution ....................................................... 388
11.1.3 Dissolved oxygen distribution in the
Mediterranean Sea .............................................. 390
11.1.4 Ventilation mechanisms ....................................... 391
11.1.5 Long term trends: in situ observation and model
contribution ....................................................... 393
 Contents xi

11.2 Dissolved nutrients: forms, sources, distribution, and

dynamics..................................................................... 395
11.2.1 Introduction....................................................... 395
11.2.2 Nutrient forms and sources................................... 396
11.2.3 Nutrients distribution........................................... 399
11.2.4 Impact of the circulation on nutrients and
biological dynamics ............................................ 402
11.2.5 Anomalous N:P ratio........................................... 404
11.2.6 The anthropogenic impact .................................... 405
11.3 Dissolved organic matter: relevance, distribution, and
dynamics..................................................................... 407
11.3.1 Introduction, definitions, and relevance................... 407
11.3.2 DOC distribution in the Mediterranean Sea,
a basin scale view............................................... 408
11.3.3 Properties of Mediterranean DOM......................... 411
11.3.4 External sources of DOM..................................... 414
11.4 Inorganic carbon chemistry and acidification in the
Mediterranean Sea: concepts, particularities, and
distribution.................................................................. 415
11.4.1 General definitions and current challenges of
the seawater CO2 system...................................... 415
11.4.2 General processes affecting the CO2 system
with a Mediterranean overview ............................. 419
11.4.3 Particularities and distribution of the CO2 system
in the Mediterranean Sea ..................................... 422
11.4.4 Surface pCO2 and air-sea CO2 fluxes ..................... 426
11.4.5 Anthropogenic carbon and ocean acidification
in the Mediterranean Sea ..................................... 427
11.4.6 Current biogeochemical monitoring activities
with focus on CO2 variables in the
Mediterranean Sea .............................................. 429
11.5 Identifying Mediterranean Sea water masses using
biogeochemistry ........................................................... 430
11.6 Future projections and threats to Mediterranean
biogeochemistry ........................................................... 432
11.6.1 Climate change and its impact on the oceans’
biogeochemistry and Mediterranean peculiarities ..... 432
11.6.2 Expected changes of biogeochemical conditions
in the Mediterranean Sea ..................................... 436
xii Contents

11.6.3 Regional differences on the effect of climate

change in the various Mediterranean subbasins ........ 436
References........................................................................... 438
CHAPTER 12 Active geological processes in the
Mediterranean Sea............................................. 453
Elda Miramontes, Claudio Pellegrini,
Daniele Casalbore and Stephanie Dupré

12.1 General concepts .......................................................... 453

12.2 Sedimentary processes from the coast to the deep sea......... 455
12.2.1 Coastal environments .......................................... 455
12.2.2 Deep-water environments..................................... 459
12.3 Submarine and insular volcanoes..................................... 466
12.4 Cold seeps: diversity, distribution and controls .................. 472
12.4.1 Key-points on submarine cold seeps ...................... 472
12.4.2 Diversity of widespread cold seeps ........................ 474
12.4.3 Mud volcanoes................................................... 474
12.4.4 Pockmarks......................................................... 477
12.4.5 Methane-derived authigenic carbonate structures...... 478
12.4.6 Brine seeps........................................................ 478
12.4.7 Gas hydrates...................................................... 479
12.4.8 Processes controlling the formation of gas and
its migration ...................................................... 479
12.5 Geohazards and ecosystems............................................ 480
12.5.1 Geohazards........................................................ 480
12.5.2 Ecosystems........................................................ 482
References........................................................................... 483
CHAPTER 13 The Mediterranean Sea in the Anthropocene ....... 501
Fabio Trincardi, Fedra Francocci, Claudio Pellegrini,
Maurizio Ribera d’Alcalà and Mario Sprovieri

13.1 General concepts .......................................................... 501

13.2 Reduction of seafloor integrity........................................ 505
13.2.1 Trawling ........................................................... 505
13.2.2 Ghost fishing ..................................................... 506
13.2.3 Littering and dumping ......................................... 507
13.2.4 Direct seafloor modifications ................................ 507
13.2.5 Ammunitions on the seafloor ................................ 508
13.3 Modification of coastal lithosomes................................... 510
13.3.1 Deltas............................................................... 510
13.3.2 Prodeltas ........................................................... 513
13.3.3 Lagoons............................................................ 514
 Contents xiii

13.3.4 Ebb and flood tidal deltas..................................... 516

13.3.5 Drowned coastal barrier islands use as borrow
places to extract sands ......................................... 517
13.4 Man-made alterations of the Mediterranean hydrological
cycle .......................................................................... 518
13.5 The load of human activities in changing Mediterranean
biogeochemical dynamics .............................................. 519
13.6 Dynamic of pollutants in the Mediterranean Sea ................ 523
13.6.1 The European directives (WFD and MSFD) ............ 523
13.6.2 The biogeochemistry of contaminants:
geomorphological interferences............................. 524
13.6.3 Heavy metals in seawater, sediments,
and organisms.................................................... 525
13.6.4 Organic pollutants in seawater, sediments, and
organisms.......................................................... 529
13.6.5 Emerging pollutants: pharmaceutical products,
drugs, etc. ......................................................... 530
13.7 Plastisphere in the Mediterranean Sea .............................. 531
13.8 Concluding remarks ...................................................... 534
References........................................................................... 536

Index...................................................................................................555
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his company with a few of his luminous notions on the subject of
“Parliamentary Reform;” being pleased to intimate that “as far as the
suffrage was concerned, Lord John Russell had proposed a five-
pound rating claim;” but Mr Cobden “would rather have a five-pound
renting clause—a franchise which would go, he thought, almost as far
as any gentleman in that room practically expected or probably
wished—at present.” Mr Cobden concluded with coarse and insolent
invective against the Chancellor of the Exchequer. “If there is a man
in this country—a politician who has suddenly jumped to an elevation
which I predict he will not sustain—who may be called a dangerous
revolutionist, if he have the opportunity—it is he! The strangest
revolution I have seen, was when I found the great territorial party
declaring intellectual bankruptcy and proclaiming political suicide, by
naming Mr Benjamin Disraeli as their chief! And if it were not for the
steadying, ballasting principle of the Manchester school, which would
prevent jugglers, and mountebanks, and unscrupulous incendiary
adventurers from playing tricks in this country, [!] there is no man so
dangerous, because none who seemed less unwilling, at all times, to
bend anything like the profession of principle to his own personal and
sinister objects, than the present Chancellor of the Exchequer!”[16]
Without condescending to characterise the tone and style of this
attack upon an absent gentleman, let us see how he was being spoken
of elsewhere, at the very same moment, by a gentleman—one of the
most able, accomplished, and high-minded members of the House of
Commons, Mr Drummond, the member for West Surrey. “It appears
to me that our taxes have been laid on upon no general principle, as
money was wanted, and that they are not in the satisfactory state they
ought to be. Let the Minister be who he may, this must be put in a
better state; and I believe that Mr Disraeli is more likely, and the
persons now in office are more likely, to do this than others.—I must
be permitted to say, that I think Mr Disraeli a man of very great
genius. He has risen by his own merits alone; and never having been
tried in office, he is not a man who ought to be sneered at by persons
who pretend that they wish ‘to extend the basis of the
Administration!’” This dignified rebuke might have been uttered by
the speaker on listening to Mr Cobden’s gross vituperation on the
occasion to which we are referring. Such was Mr Cobden—in
Yorkshire; such will not be Mr Cobden—in the House of Commons,
when standing face to face before that same formidable Chancellor of
Exchequer, behind whose back he has spoken offensively with such
virulent vulgarity and presumption. Passing over these smaller
matters, however, it is impossible not to note the recently lowered
tone of Mr Cobden, whilom so loud and confident on the subject of a
“Protectionist Ministry” as a thing to be only “laughed at,” and which
would “fly like chaff before the wind before a General Election.” On
the ensuing day, the Times, in commenting on Mr Cobden’s speech,
pronounced to be “not wholly worthy of his theme”—and in a “tone
hardly elevated enough for the occasion”—“recommended to the
consideration of the future Parliament the advice of Mr Cobden with
reference to the manner in which Ministers should be dealt
with.”—“It is only fair and wise to hear from them the principles on
which they intend to act, and the measures which they mean to bring
forward.... By precipitating matters, we are quite sure either to
prevent the Ministry from showing conclusively the hollowness of
their abandonment of Free Trade, or from bestowing upon us a great
public benefit. It is much easier to turn out a Government than to
form its successor; and the besetting sin to which heterogeneous
Oppositions are liable is, that they are apt to place themselves in a
situation in which they may be called upon to act in concert, when
concert, except against the common enemy, is impossible; and thus,
by the exertion of their strength, to render their weakness more
apparent and more fatal.” These were prudent counsels, and probably
influenced by the same causes which had emboldened the Chancellor
of the Exchequer, a few days previously,[17] thus to speak out
concerning the position and prospects of the Government: “It is my
firm conviction that the Government of Lord Derby will meet
Parliament in the autumn with an absolute majority. To me that is
not a subject of doubt.” Two days afterwards—the election returns,
during the brief interval, abundantly justifying him—Mr Disraeli thus
deliberately and confidently addressed the constituency of
Buckinghamshire from the hustings: “I express my firm and solemn
conviction, in the face of the county of Buckingham, after witnessing
the present temper of the public mind, and scanning—I am sure with
no prejudice—the results of the general election, that the Ministry will
be permitted to bring forward their measures; that no manœuvres of
faction will terminate their career; and that those measures will
obtain the assent, and I will even say the enthusiastic approbation, of
the great body of the people.” On the ensuing day, the Spectator
observed—“The elections have not yet decided the question of the
majority; and it is still possible that Lord Derby may have the balance
of numbers.” In the “Postscript” to the same number of his paper, the
editor, in recounting additional gains, observed—“Lord Derby is
steadily gaining in the elections.”
Before these pages meet the reader’s eye, all the elections will have
been completed; but up to the day on which we are writing, it would
appear that nearly six hundred are decided, and the results are thus
classified in the five morning papers of this day.[18] It is curious to see
how the various organs of political opinion deal with the same facts,
viewed through the disturbing medium of their own hopes and
wishes.
The Times distinguishes between “Ministerialists” and “Liberal
Conservatives,” giving 252 as the former, and 63 as the latter—
together, 315; Liberals, 271;—placing the latter in a minority of 44.
The

Morning gives— Opposition, Majority for

Herald Ministerialists, 311 269 Ministerialists, 42
Morning „ do. Liberals, do.
Post 289 275 14
Daily „ Derbyites, do. do.
News 285 293 Liberals, 9
Morning „ Non- Majority for
Chronicle Ministerialists, Ministerialists, Non-
250 326 Ministerialists, 76!

Doubtless all these are intended to be, or to be deemed, fair

approximations towards the real numerical relations existing between
those who will be found generally opposed to each other in the House
of Commons; but it is obvious that such calculations are, to a very
great extent, purely conjectural, and deeply tinctured by the political
predilections of those who make them; and indeed it is impossible for
any calm and well-informed observer to cast his eyes over the
columns on which these calculations are based, without seeing
abundant reason for doubting the propriety of even the Conservative
classifications. The gentlemen whose political opinions and
intentions are thus confidently dealt with, must often smile at the
position thus assigned to them. In the Liberal journals of this day,[19]
for instance, two members, Mr Duncuft, for Oldham, and Mr
Sandars, for Wakefield, are set down as “Non-Ministerialists,”
“Liberals,” and “Oppositionists;” while, on the preceding day, Mr
Duncuft is reported as returning thanks for the toast of “The
Conservatives of Lancashire;” and proposing “The Conservative
Press,” at a dinner given by “The Conservatives of Wakefield,” to Mr
Sandars! And very many other names might be mentioned, which the
slightest consideration must show to be referred to the wrong
category. There are undoubtedly many, and will be more, gentlemen
returned to Parliament, so far unpledged to particular measures, and
having indicated, in such general terms, the tendency of their political
opinions, as to render it doubtful on which side of the Speaker’s chair
they will sit, or on which side they would vote on the leading political
questions of the day. But we would warn those who have been so
loudly proclaiming their confident opinions on the subject, to pause
before coming to a conclusion on the course which will be adopted by
the majority, on the first fair and avowed trial of strength between
Ministers and their opponents. In our opinion, on a calculation of the
probable character of the members, upwards of 70, yet unreturned—
but all of whose names are known, and their general political
opinions ascertained—whoever shall propose a direct motion of want
of confidence in Ministers, or any motion having that tendency, will
find himself in a very considerable, if not, indeed, in a large minority.
The consequences of such a successfully taken step, all must see,
would be exceedingly serious; and a forced resignation under such
circumstances would greatly dissatisfy the country, and still further
confuse the present perplexed party relations of those opposed to the
Government. Long before Parliament meets, which will be probably
towards the close of October, each member will have asked himself
frequently and anxiously the grave question—Who is to succeed Lord
Derby? And how is the compact and formidable phalanx of his
present supporters to be practically dealt with? Without such a
sacrifice of principle as would shock the morality of the whole
country, how could a Ministry be formed which would combine in
opposition to the present occupants of the Treasury Bench—those
publicly pledged persons who would insist on being included in the
new Government? And by whom are they to be led? What are the
measures which they would propose, and be likely to carry? Will Lord
Palmerston, Lord John Russell, Sir James Graham, Mr Gladstone, go
into the same lobby with Mr Hume, Mr Cobden, and Mr Bright, on a
motion in favour of a great extension of the suffrage, vote by ballot,
triennial parliaments, or the destruction of the Irish Church?—or on a
motion of simple want of confidence in Ministers? And if Mr Villiers,
or any other member, should propose a resolution expressive of the
determination of the House not to sanction any measures calculated
to interfere with or reverse the policy of the year 1846, who shall tell
the fate of it in the then existing complication and character of the
House of Commons, with such various shades of opinion on fiscal and
economical questions? Who shall expect a majority to agree on what
will constitute a prejudicial or unjustifiable interference with that
policy? And suppose Ministers should distinctly avow that it was not
their intention to propose measures directly or indirectly aimed at
such interference or reversal? Suppose a considerable number of
members should be found concurring generally in the Free Trade
policy, but also believing that the manner in which it was introduced
and established was unjust, and injurious to great interests in the
country, and anxious to repair such injustice, and mitigate the
admitted sufferings of the agriculturists? This is the opinion of Lord
Shelburne, and doubtless of many men of moderate opinions, though
formally opposed to the present Government. Suppose, on the other
hand, the Minister, in answer to such a motion, should be prepared to
intimate generally a policy likely to be received with favour in the
House of Commons and out of doors; and either move the previous
question, or boldly meet the motion with a direct negative, and
successfully? Their hands would have been immensely strengthened
by their opponents, for the remainder of the Session—perhaps for
many succeeding Sessions. All these, and many other cognate
considerations, will be taken calmly into account by the more astute
tacticians of the Liberal party; and, in our opinion, shrewder counsels
will prevail than those which would herald in an immediately
aggressive policy on the part of her Majesty’s motley opposition. With
the very best hostile intentions, they would lack arms and
opportunity. We concur in every word of the following passage, which
fell from the lips of Mr Disraeli at Aylesbury, so long ago as the 14th
instant. “We shall carry out our views with more efficiency, and, I
believe, with more success, in the new Parliament—when the Ministry
will no longer have to meet a hostile Parliament, or be restrained in
its policy by an overpowering Opposition. We shall meet Parliament
prepared to do our duty, under a firm conviction that the country will
steadily support us. I will not conceive the alternative position of the
Government’s failing to succeed; but at the same time, no one can be
blind to the fact, that the Opposition will create its organisation upon
revolutionary principles. The Whigs have shown us their character.
Their policy has been received with universal scouting by the country,
and they cannot attain to power again, except by calling to their
councils the Jacobin clubs of Lancashire. I feel that the present
Government is necessary for the preservation of the English
Constitution; but the future institution of the Opposition already
peeps from its shell, and developes its horns; and from that shell the
Opposition cannot emerge, except enveloped in the slime of sedition.
A change in the institutions of the country will be the condition of its
success; and Englishmen must indeed be false to all their professions
—false to that high spirit which Englishmen have ever shown—false to
the traditionary associations of their country, if they suffer an
Opposition, founded on such principles, to govern this nation.
“Will you,” concluded the right honourable gentleman, “be
prepared to say, we will have justice done to the soil—we will have our
legislation conceived in the spirit of the age, which is the spirit of
justice? We will have the Protestant Constitution of this country
preserved, not with the sectarianism of bigots, but with those who
believe that Protestantism is the only safeguard of English liberty?”
In our opinion, the country has answered these questions decidedly
in the affirmative, and thereby placed firmly in power an able, united,
Protestant Conservative Government. It is easy for newspapers, day
after day, and week after week, to repeat the cuckoo cry that Ministers
are impostors, and that their policy is, in the vulgar phraseology of
the hour, “a sham.” The progress and the result of the general
election of 1852 demonstrate that these paper pellets cannot batter
down the rock of national firmness and good sense. Had it been
otherwise, Ministers must have fallen ignominiously within the first
week of their presuming to take office; for the wordy batteries of the
“Liberal” press have been blazing upon them, double-shotted, from
morning to night ever since. Yet the Funds have never gone down,
and Ministers remain in their places, not with downcast looks and
desponding hearts, but with cheerful confidence and resolution,
satisfied that the voice of the nation has pronounced in their favour,
and has also declared that it will regard their acts with indulgence and
forbearance, and will not tolerate faction or intrigue. There is now a
fair prospect that a united and powerful Government may do
incalculable good to the country and the Sovereign which has called
that Government into existence. Its mission is to act, where its
predecessor could only talk; to consolidate and strengthen, where
that predecessor could only disturb and unsettle; to terminate the
wretched strife of classes, by a just, cautious, firm, and
comprehensive policy. Its mission is, further, to repel the insolent
advances of Democracy and Popery, which will now find that the day
of vacillation and vicious concession has passed away. We say it with
pain, that we believe the interests of Protestantism are no longer safe
in the keeping of Lord John Russell, though individually he may be
true at heart in his abhorrence of the wicked and tyrannical spirit of
Popery; but his political exigencies have fettered his will, and chilled
his spirit. His fondness of power inclines him to compromises and
sacrifices, which very often look only too like sacrifice of principle and
conviction. In like manner we fear him in his dalliance with
Democracy. In tampering with the great political adjustment of 1832,
he is seen standing irresolutely with his foot upon the steep inclined
plane which leads to confusion and anarchy, surrounded by those
who are incessantly goading and jogging him into commencing the
descent. We believe that in his heart he despises the clique of Cobden,
Bright, &c.; he has in fact contemptuously told them so to their very
faces;[20] yet are we grievously apprehensive that he is now prepared
to join them, faintly protesting, but suffering them to impel him
infinitely further than he himself thinks it safe or wise to go. That he
has lost the confidence of the country, few will question; and is that
confidence now extended to Sir James Graham? His recent career,
especially his undisguised sympathy with Popery, would at once
irritate and alarm the country, if it saw his advent to power a probable
event; and, indeed, he must have gazed with dismay on the successive
disappearance from Parliament of so many of those to whom he had
recently allied himself, in reliance on their efforts to consolidate and
work his influence. A very few months, perhaps a few weeks, will see
the erratic baronet the close ally of the Manchester School—at once
its leader and follower; he will declare for a perilous extension of the
suffrage, and support it with powerful and plausible arguments, but,
at the same time, with that semblance of dignified candour and
moderation, which he has been latterly showing such anxiety to
assume, and acquire credit for. He will co-operate with Mr Cobden,
very quietly at first, to reorganise the Liberal party; and if their efforts
obtain any considerable share of popularity, Sir James will be seen
one of the most eager and swift in the race towards the goal of
revolution. Both he, Mr Cobden, and Sir Charles Wood, at present
know well that they have grievously lost ground in the country, and
that what they have so lost is now in the possession of Lord Derby
and his Government.
Of one thing we are quite certain, that Ministers will not meet the
new Parliament unprepared to carry into vigorous operation a well-
considered and determinate policy, which will abundantly satisfy any
degree of reasonable expectation. Nor shall we be surprised to see
them disposed to bring matters to a speedy issue, if encountered by
factious opposition, come from what quarter it may, and disguised
under never so specious an aspect. Those interests which have
suffered so severely from precipitate legislation, will be well
represented in the new House of Commons, and have to deal with a
friendly Ministry, which it will be at once their interest and their duty
to support steadily, against all hostile and sinister combinations. The
cause of law reform will be safe in their hands; nay, the first four
months of their existence have shown that it cannot be in better
hands, and we venture to deny that it can be in any other hands so
good as theirs. They have indeed shown a thorough heartiness in the
sacred cause of law and justice; and what they have already done in
this great department, of itself is sufficient for ever to signalise their
hitherto brief tenure of power. We shall not concern ourselves, nor
amuse our readers, by speculations as to the precise number of
supporters with whom the election returns are rapidly surrounding
Lord Derby and his Government. It is now, as we have already stated,
upwards of a week ago since the present Chancellor of the Exchequer
distinctly declared in public, that the Government “would meet
Parliament, in the autumn, with an absolute majority;” and we are
not aware of a single journal that has ventured to contradict the
statement. Every day’s returns tend to corroborate more and more
strongly the truth of that statement, which was one calculated to
challenge vehement contradiction, could it have been given
consistently with fact. There was a will, but no way, to do so. Our own
over-zealous friends may have been too sanguine in their
expectations, and hasty in their calculations; but those of our
opponents, at least of the more eager and unscrupulous, are
preposterous, impeaching their good faith, or their capacity as
political observers. We entertain no misgivings as to the position and
reception of Ministers in the new Parliament. Their majority, on
vexed questions, may not be large, but it will be sufficient; and
against faction, it will be decisive.
What, then, was the question which has been put to the
constituencies, and answered? It was not that of Free Trade or
Protection. The question was one of a far wider description. Lord
Derby, in February last, stated in terms the question which he sought
to have answered; a question not of details, but of principles, relying
on the estimate formed of his character by the country, for its
allowing him to carry these principles into operation.
“These are the PRINCIPLES on which I shall make my appeal on
behalf of myself and colleagues. We are threatened with far more
serious difficulties than opposition to a five shilling, six shilling, or
seven shilling duty on corn. It is a QUESTION, whether the Government
of this country can be carried on, and on what principles, and through
what medium. Will you support a Government which is against
hostile attacks; which will maintain the peace of the world; which will
uphold the Protestant institutions of the country; which will give
strength and increased power to religious and moral education
throughout the land; and which will exert itself, moreover, I will not
hesitate to say, to oppose some barrier against the current,
continually encroaching, of democratic influence, which would throw
power nominally into the hands of the masses, practically into those
of the demagogues who lead them?”
This was, indeed, a Great Question, and it has been Answered
satisfactorily to all lovers of constitutional freedom.

Printed by William Blackwood & Sons, Edinburgh

1. Reise nach Persien und dem Lande der Kurden. Von Moritz Wagner, 2
vols. Leipzig: Arnold. London: Williams & Norgate. 1852.
 2. “Ararat and the Armenian Highlands.” Blackwood’s Magazine, No. CCCCIII.

3. “Caucasus and the Land of the Cossacks.” Blackwood’s Magazine, No. CCCC.

4. Reise nach Colchis, &c. Leipzig, 1850.

5. Fallmerayer—Fragmente aus dem Orient.

6. The Sultan’s physician.

7. “The decrease of the Irish population from 1841 to 1851 was 1,659,330, of
whom 1,289,133 emigrated. But as there was no considerable emigration till 1846,
and the famine occurred in that year, there can be no doubt that down to the end of
1845 the population had advanced at its former rate, which would make the
inhabitants in 1845 about 8,500,000, and the decrease since that time fully
2,000,000.”—Emigration Report, July 12, 1852.

8. See Blackwood’s Magazine, Feb. 1852.

9. The Moor and the Loch. By John Colquhoun, Esq. 3d Edit. Edinburgh,
1851.

10. “The Great Question.” June 1852. No. CCCCXL.

11. See our April Number, “The Earl of Derby.”

12. Tuesday, 20th July 1852.

13. New Series, 14th March 1839.

14. Hansard, 3d Series, vol. xlvi. col. 694–5.

15. Page 403—“The Earl of Derby.”

16. In a similar strain ventured to speak a certain Mr Serjeant Murphy at Cork.

“Who is their Chancellor of the Exchequer? I’ll tell you what he is. He is a political
adventurer, who speculates on politics as a black-leg on the turn of the dice and the
fluctuating chance of the turf—a political trader!” And the refined and
complimentary Milesian proceeds to utter a supposed bon-mot concerning Mr
Disraeli’s speech on the Budget, which, he says, he himself heard, “while sitting
near the Duke of Cambridge, with whom I have the honour of being acquainted!”

17. Wednesday, 14th July 1852.

18. 21st July 1852.

19. 21st July 1852.

20. See our June Number, p. 763.
 TRANSCRIBER’S NOTES
1. Silently corrected palpable typographical errors; retained
non-standard spellings and dialect.
*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK BLACKWOOD'S
EDINBURGH MAGAZINE, VOL. 72, NO. 442, AUGUST, 1852 ***

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