Taiwan Semiconductor MFG Earnings Call
Taiwan Semiconductor MFG Earnings Call
Taiwan Semiconductor MFG Earnings Call
Company Participants
C.C. Wei, Chief Executive Officer
Jeff Su, Director of Investor Relations
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Other Participants
Brad Lin
Brett Simpson
Bruce Lu
Charles Shi
Charlie Chan
Gokul Hariharan
Krish Sankar
Laura Chen
Mehdi Hosseini
Sunny Lin
Presentation
Bloomberg Transcript
(Foreign Language) Good afternoon, everyone and welcome to TSMC's Third Quarter
2023 Earnings Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and
your host for today.
TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the
company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release
materials. If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-
only mode. The format for today's event will be as follows.
First, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr.Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in
the third quarter 2023, followed by our guidance for the fourth quarter 2023. Afterwards,
Mr.Huang and TSMC's CEO, Dr.C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages.
Then we will open the line for the Q&A.
As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-
looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking
statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears in our press release.
And now, I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr.Wendell Huang, for the
summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.
Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My
presentation will start with financial highlights for the third quarter of 2023. After that, I will
provide the guidance for the fourth quarter of 2023.
Third quarter revenue increased 13.7% sequentially in NT dollars, or 10.2% in U.S. dollars,
as our third quarter business was supported by the strong ramp of our industry-leading 3-
nanometer technology and higher demand for 5-nanometer technologies, partially offset
by customers' ongoing inventory adjustment.
Gross margin increased 0.2 percentage points sequentially to 54.3%, mainly reflecting
higher capacity utilization, partially offset by the margin dilution from N3 ramp.
Total operating expenses accounted for 12.6% of net revenue as compared to 12.1% in the
second quarter, mainly due to higher R&D expenses to support our 3-nanometer and 2-
nanometer development.
Operating margin was 41.7%, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous quarter.
Overall, our third quarter EPS was TWD8.14 and ROE was 25.8%.
Bloomberg Transcript
Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with cash and marketable
securities of TWD1.55 trillion, or USD48 billion. On the liability side, current liabilities
increased by TWD159 billion mainly due to the increase of TWD95 billion in accounts
payable and the increase of TWD59 billion in accrued liabilities and others. Long-term
interest bearing debt increased by TWD30 billion of which TWD10 billion from new
issuance and TWD20 billion from foreign exchange rate movement.
On financial ratio, accounts receivable turnover days increased three days to 35 days while
days of inventory decreased three days to 96 days.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
Regarding cash flow and CapEx. During the third quarter, we generated about TWD295
billion in cash from operations, spent TWD227 billion in CapEx, and distributed TWD71
billion for fourth quarter '22 cash dividend. Overall, our cash balance increased TWD35
billion to TWD1.31 trillion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, our third quarter
capital expenditures totaled TWD7.1 billion.
I have finished my financial summary. Now let's turn to our current quarter guidance.
Based on current business outlook, we expect our fourth quarter revenue to be between
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USD18.8 billion and USD19.6 billion which represents a 11.1% sequential increase at the
midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD1 to TWD32, gross margin is
expected to be between 51.5% and 53.5%, operating margin between 39.5% and 41.5%.
This concludes my financial presentation.
Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by making some comments on our third
quarter '23 and fourth quarter '23 profitability. Compared to second quarter, our third
quarter gross margin increased by 20 basis points sequentially to 54.3%, primarily due to
a higher capacity utilization rate and a more favorable foreign exchange rate, partially
offset by the margin dilution from the initial ramp-up of our 3-nanometer technology.
Compared to our third quarter guidance, our actual gross margin exceeded the high end
of the range provided three months ago by 80 basis points, mainly due to a more
favorable foreign exchange rate. We have just guided our fourth quarter gross margin to
decline by 1.8 percentage points to 52.5% at the midpoint, primarily due to the continual
margin dilution from this steep ramp of our 3-nanometer technology. As a reminder, six
factors determine TSMC's profitability: leadership, technology development and ramp up;
pricing; cost reduction; capacity utilization; technology mix, and foreign exchange rate.
Bloomberg Transcript
To manage our profitability in the next several years, we will work diligently on our internal
cost improvement while continuing to strategically sell our value.
Excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate, of which we have no control over, we
continue to forecast a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable.
Next, let me talk about our 2023 CapEx and depreciation. Every year, our CapEx is spent
in anticipation of the growth that will follow in future years. Given the near-term
uncertainties, we continue to manage our business prudently and have tightened up our
capital spending throughout the year where appropriate.
We now expect our 2023 CapEx to be approximately USD32 billion. Out of the
approximately $32 billion CapEx for 2023, about 70% of the capital budget will be
allocated for advanced process technologies, about 20% will be spent for specialty
technologies, and about 10% will be spent for advanced packaging, testing, mask making,
and others.
Our depreciation expense is now expected to increase by low 20s percentage year-over-
year in 2023, as compared to our January forecast of approximately 30% year-over-year
increase.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
Despite the near-term inventory cycle, our commitment to support customers' growth
remains unchanged, and our disciplined CapEx and capacity planning remains based on
the long-term structure market demand profile. We will continue to work closely with our
customers to plan our long-term capacity and invest in leading-edge specialty and
advanced packaging technologies to support their growth while delivering profitable
growth to our shareholders.
C.C. Wei
Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start with our near-term
demand and inventory. We concluded our third quarter with revenue of USD17.3 billion in
line with our guidance in U.S. dollar terms. Our business in the third quarter was
supported by the strong ramp of our industry-leading 3-nanometer technology and
higher demand for 5-nanometer technologies, partially offset by customers' ongoing
inventory adjustment.
Moving into fourth quarter 2023. While AI-related demand continues to be strong, it is not
enough to offset the overall cyclicality of our business. We expect our business in the
fourth quarter to be supported by the continuous strong ramp of our 3-nanometer
technology, partially offset by customers' continual inventory adjustment.
the fourth quarter. Having said that, we are observing some early sign of demand
stabilization in the PC and smartphone end market.
Together with such level of inventory control, we forecast the fabless semiconductor
inventory to further reduce and exit 4Q '23 at a healthier level.
Next, let me talk about our global manufacturing footprint update. TSMC's mission is to
be the trusted technology and capacity provider of the global logic IC industry for years to
come. As we have said before, our strategy is to expand our global manufacturing
footprint to increase customer trust, expand our future growth potential, and reach for
more global talents.
Our overseas decisions are based on our customers' need and the necessary level of
government support. This is to maximize the value for our shareholders.
In Europe, after conducting extensive due diligence, we announced our plan to build a
specialty technology fab in Dresden, Germany, focusing on automotive and industrial
applications. We have received a strong commitment to support this project from our JV
partners, the European Commission government, and German federal, state, and city
governments. This fab will utilize 22 and 28 nanometer and 12, 16 nanometer technologies
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
for semiconductor wafer fabrication. Fab construction is scheduled to begin in the second
half 2024 and production is targeted to begin in late 2027.
In Arizona, we are receiving strong support from the City of Phoenix, State of Arizona, and
U.S. Federal Government and continue to develop positive relationship and work closely
with our local trade and union partners. We are making good progress on the fab
infrastructure, utilities, and equipment installation issues in our first fab, and the situation is
improving.
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We have also begun early preparation for our Arizona fab operations and hired close to
1,100 local TSMC employees so far.
Many of them have been brought to Taiwan for extensive hands-on experience in our fab
so that they can further their technical skills while being immersed in TSMC's operations
environment and culture. We continue to target volume production of N4 process
technology in first half 2025 and are confident that once we begin operations, we will be
able to deliver the same level of manufacturing quality and reliability in Arizona as from
our fabs in Taiwan.
In Japan, we built a specialty technology fab, which will utilize 12 and 16 nanometer and 22
and 28 nanometer process technologies. We have hired approximately 800 local TSMC
employees so far, with the majority having similar being brought to Taiwan for hands-on
experience. Equipment moving has begun this month, and volume production is on track
for late 2024.
In China, we have recently received an extension from the U.S. Bureau of Industry and
Bloomberg Transcript
Security to continue our operation in Nanjing. We are currently in the process of applying
for validated end-user authorization and expect to receive a permanent authorization in
the near future.
From a cost perspective, the initial costs of overseas fabs are higher than TSMC fabs in
Taiwan due to, first, smaller fab scale; second, higher costs throughout the supply chain;
and third, the early stage of semiconductor ecosystem overseas as compared to a
matured ecosystem in Taiwan. TSMC's responsibility is to manage and minimize the cost
gap to maximize the return for our shareholders.
Our pricing will also remain strategic to reflect our value, which includes the value of
geographic flexibility. We also work closely with government to secure their support. At
the same time, we are leveraging our fundamental competitive advantage of
manufacturing technology leadership, large volume, economies of scale to continuously
drive our costs down. By taking such actions, TSMC will have the ability to absorb the
higher costs of overseas fares and still deliver the long-term gross margin of 53% and
higher and sustainable ROE of greater than 25%. We remain firm in our commitment to
maximize the value for our shareholders.
Now let me talk about the N3 and N3E ramp-up and progress. Our 3-nanometer
technology, the most advanced semiconductor technology in both PPA and transistor
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
technology. N3 is already in volume production with good yield, and we are seeing a
strong ramp in the second half of this year, supported by both HPC and smartphone
applications. We reaffirm N3 will contribute mid single-digit percentage of our total wafer
revenue in 2023, and we expect a much higher percentage in 2024, supported by robust
demand from multiple customers.
N3E will leverage the strong foundation of N3 to further extend our N3 family with
enhanced performance, power, and yield, and provide complete platform support for
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both HPC and the smartphone applications. N3E has passed qualification and achieved
performance and yield targets and will start volume production in fourth quarter of this
year. We also continue to provide further enhancement of N3 technology, including N3P
and N3X.
Finally, I will talk about N2 status. The recent surge in AI-related demand supports our
already strong conviction that demand for energy-efficient computing will accelerate in an
intelligent and connected world. Thus, the value of a technology platform is expanding
beyond the scope of geometry shrink alone and increasing toward greater power
efficiency.
In addition, as process technology complexity increases, the lead time and engagement
with customer also start much earlier. As a result, we are observing a strong level of
customer interest and engagement at our N2, similar to or higher than N3 at a similar
Bloomberg Transcript
Our 2-nanometer technology will be the most advanced semiconductor technology in the
industry in both density and energy efficiency when it is introduced in 2025. Our N2
technology development is progressing well and on track for volume production in 2025.
Our N2 will adopt nanosheet transistor structure, which has demonstrated excellent power
efficiency. N2 will deliver four node performance and power benefit to address the
increasing need for energy-efficient computing.
As part of N2 technology platform, we'll also develop N2 with backside power rail
solution, which is the best suited for HPC applications.
We are targeting backside power rail to be available in the second half of 2025 to
customers with production in 2026. With our strategy of continuous enhancement, N2 and
its derivative will further extend our technology leadership well into the future.
This concludes our key message and thank you for your attention.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
Thank you, C.C. This concludes our prepared statements. Before we begin the Q&A
session, I would like to remind everybody to please limit your questions to two at a time to
allow all participants an opportunity to ask their questions. Should you wish to raise your
questions in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your
question. (Operator Instructions)
Now let's begin the Q&A session. Operator, can we please proceed with the first caller on
the line? Thank you.
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Operator
(Question And Answer)
Yes. The first one to ask question, Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.
A - C.C. Wei
Okay. Well, Gokul, this is C.C. Wei. Let me answer your question with a very simple yes or
say no, but well I was still a little bit wrong, actually we do not underestimate any of our
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
competitors or take them lightly. Having said that, our internal assessment show that our
N3P, now I repeat again, N3P technology demonstrated comparable PPA to 18A, my
competitor's technology. But with an earlier time to market, better technology maturity,
and much better cost. In fact, let me repeat again, our 2-nanometer technology without
backside power is more advanced than both N3P and 18A. And what the semiconductor
industry is the most advanced technology when it is introduced in 2025. Does that answer
your question, Gokul?
Q - Gokul Hariharan
FINAL
So his question is really more about on the edge devices. Are we starting to see AI related
Bloomberg Transcript
demand for edge devices? Do we expect this to be a big growth driver in the next one to
two years for our leading-edge technologies as well?
A - C.C. Wei
Well, the answer is also very simple. Yes, we do see some activities from customers who
add AI capability in end devices such as a smartphone and PCs through neural engine
and AI and PC, and we certainly hope that this one will add to the course, help TSMC
more strengthen under our AI's business.
A - C.C. Wei
Okay. Let me answer briefly. It started right now and we were expected that the more and
more customer will put that AI's capability into the end devices, into their product.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
Operator
Next one to ask question, Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.
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A - C.C. Wei
Well, Charlie, this is C.C. Wei again. Let me answer your question. As I said, we do observe
some early signs of demand stabilization in PCs and smartphone end market. Those two
segments are the biggest segments for TSMC's business. We want to say that 2024 will be
a very healthy growth, but right now, did we see the bottom? Very close, very close. We
want to -- I cannot give you a number, but it's -- because it's too early to call it a sharp
rebound.
But even with the macro environment remain uncertain, weighing customers our inventory
control in the first half of 2024. Having said that, we already say that we are strong
technology leadership and the broad customer base, and those two are unique and
specific to TSMC, enable our customers to win business in their end market, and TSMC
continues to deliver healthy growth. And that's why we can do better than overall industry.
And that's why we have confidence that we will have a healthier growth next year.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
also about AI. My question is about, over the past three months, do you see any upward
revision of forecast maybe from the GPU or the custom chip?
And I know it's a very, very recent, right? Just two days ago, the U.S. put some additional
export control on the AI shipment to China. Do you think that, that is going to have any
kind of near-term or long-term impact to your AI semi revenue growth assumption?
Thanks.
FINAL
And then he wants to know, given the recent additional regulations announced, what
would the impact to the AI demand be to TSMC, both for the short term and the long
term?
A - C.C. Wei
Charlie, the AI demand continues to grow stronger and stronger. So, from TSMC's point of
view, now we have a capacity limitation to support them -- to support the demand. We are
working hard to increase the capacity to meet their demand. That's for one thing. Now
U.S. government put a new regulation for some of the products cannot be shipped to
mainland China.
However, it is just for a couple of days, we are still evaluating -- we are still doing our
assessment. But so far we can tell you that the impact to TSMC is limited and manageable,
Bloomberg Transcript
at least for the short term. For the long term, we are still evaluating what is the
consequence.
A - C.C. Wei
Okay. Let me answer it. Whether customer develop the CPU, GPU, AI accelerator or ASIC
for all the type of AI applications, the commonalities are they all require usage of leading-
edge technology with stable yield delivery to support larger die size and a strong foundry
design ecosystem. All of those are TSMC's strengths. So we are able to address and
capture a major portion of the market in terms of a semiconductor component in AI.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
Operator
Next one to ask question, Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.
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Do we expect to see a sharp rebound for the smartphone business to get back to the
corporate average in terms of growth rate? Also, the management also mentioned that
the back-end business will grow in line with the corporate average. Will we see a much
stronger growth from the back-end business in the coming two years?
So Bruce's question, he wants to break down the components here to look at smartphone
in particular, given that it has been a slower going market these last few years. How do we
see the growth of the smartphone market the next one to two years in the context of this
CAGR?
And then also, I think Bruce is also asking about the back-end growth. We have said
previously, it will grow slightly faster than the corporate average. What is the current
expectation now also for the next one to two years? Is that correct, Bruce?
We still think that HPC will be the strongest one and will be the major growth contributor
to our multi-year growth. This is your first question.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
As to the growth of back-end business, we still expect that the back-end business as a
whole will grow slightly faster than the corporate average in the five-year time period.
nanometer and 7-nanometer. What is the technology cadence moving forward? Are we
able to see a meaningful revenue contribution of 2-nanometer in two years' time frame or
three years' time frame? I think the technology migration cadence is an important
indicator.
A - C.C. Wei
Okay. Bruce, let me answer the question. I think that we develop the technology to meet
the customer's demand. That's the first priority to us. But then different customer may
have a different product schedule consideration. And as time goes by, the technology
complexity actually become more and more complicated. And our customers design their
product and react to the market situation.
So let me answer the question that's in a very simple way. TSMC's technology cadence
remain constant and to support our customers' growth. But whether we got the same
amount or same percentage of the revenue, it will depend on customer's product
schedule.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
So Bruce's follow-up is, so if the customers do not need the leany node as fast or as soon
as before, then slow down the cadence, does that mean we will see better returns?
A - C.C. Wei
Well, we don't slow down our technology development per se. We might slow down our
capacity expansion according to customer's demand. Did I answer your question, Bruce?
That's what we are doing right now.
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Operator
Yes. The next one, we have Laura Chen from Citi.
So I just want to get your feeling about the overall the CapEx outlook or capacity outlook
into the next two years. Do you feel that will be better to resume the year-on-year CapEx
next year or later?
Considering there's still quite a strong demand on N3, N2 ramp-up, at the same time, the
most advanced now seems you will see maybe two times more expensive on N2 versus
N3. So my question is just about the future capacity expansion plan. Yes, thank you.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
reduce, but the capital intensity is expected to decline in the next few years. That's what
we can see at this moment.
A - C.C. Wei
Laura, I'll answer that. As technology moving to more and more advanced node, the
challenge is always there. Technology complexity increase dramatically, but we can do it,
no doubt about it. And we will still remain the technology leadership in this industry. If you
ask me what is the most challenging part, I would say it's cost. I mean, you look at it today,
inflation, everything, and the tool become more and more expensive. Although we can do
it on time to meet customers' requirement, our challenge right now, actually, I would say,
number one, cost.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
I want to reduce the cost, so more customer can afford it. But even with that, actually, we
have a lot of our customer interested and engaged with the TSMC today. Actually it's
probably higher than the N3 at a similar stage. Did I answer your question?
Okay. Thank you, Laura. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?
Operator
Right now we have Brett Simpson from Arete Research.
Are you -- is TSMC generally supportive of this trend or not? And can you give us your
perspective as to whether hyperscalers have the in-house IP and skills to cut out the ASIC
suppliers or not and go direct to TSMC? Thank you.
Okay. Brett, thank you. So Brett's first question is looking at his observation, U.S.
hyperscale companies are hiring a lot of people to do AI custom chips silicon and working
directly or coming directly to work with TSMC.
So his question is, is TSMC support such efforts and how do we see such type of
customers, I guess. Is that your question, Brett?
A - C.C. Wei
Hi, Brett. Okay, those are hyperscalers. I don't comment on the specific customer, but all
we know or our fundamental rule is, where the customer develop the CPU, GPU, AI
accelerator, or ASIC for their own application, or for any purpose in the AI area, we will
support them, actually. And because of our technology leadership and our good
manufacturing, so we are able to address and capture a major portion of the market. And
so you are asking whether we support it or not, we support every customer all over the
world.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
A - C.C. Wei
Well, let me answer the question on automotive demand. In fact, in the past three years,
automotive demand has very strong. And we deliver whatever they ask. And today, I think
the automotive demand already entered the inventory adjustment mode in the second
half of 2023. However, we still expect automotive demand-wide increase again in 2024,
because the more and more EV, more and more functionality being added to automotive.
And that's what we saw.
Now talking about the N7, the 7-nanometer technology, why we have such a low utilization
or the revenue decrease. It's a goal beyond our initial -- our original plan, because we
expect the N7 to be very fully utilized even now, but it is not. Let me answer the question.
Bloomberg Transcript
But seeing that, we are confident to backfill our 7, 6-nanometer capacity with additional
wave of specialty demand from consumer, RF, connectivity, and other applications and we
will return to a healthy level of utilization over the next several years. This is very similar to
a situation that we have a 28-nanometer back in 2018 and 2019 timeframe. Okay.
In the beginning, it was underutilized for a period of time, and we work hard with our
customer and then for developing some specialty technologies, and then now we have to
expand 28 nanometers specialty capacity.
That's the same kind of a story. Brett, did I answer your question?
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
All right, Brett. Thank you. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?
Operator
Next one to ask questions, Brad Lin from Bank of America.
Thank you for taking my question. So first of all, congrats on the strong result and then
also the impressive gross margin.
So I have two questions. One is on the end device AI, edge AI, and the other is on the
CPO. So appreciate the management's constructive comments on growth outlook on the
edge AI.
So besides the, well, interesting engagement with the clients, what are the implications for
the wafer consumption for the firm?
And also, eyeing on the computing power and energy consumption angle on the end
device with additional AI functions, should we expect it to re-accelerate the node
migration for the end devices? That's my first question, thank you.
A - C.C. Wei
Well, the edge device start to -- that's including smartphone and PCs, start to incorporate
AI functionality inside. We observed some of the neural engines has been added
increasingly. So the die size was increased, even the unit did not increase dramatically, but
the die size is in mid-teens -- no, not, I mean mid-single-digit is the die size increase so far
and I expect this kind of trend will continue.
And so more and more application of the -- on the AI side will be incorporated into those
kind of edge device and that one did have very power efficient chips to put into the edge
device, especially when it is a mobile. So I do expect -- from my own perspective, I do
expect that my customer will move into the leading-edge node more and more quickly to
compete in the market.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
A - C.C. Wei
Well, I want to answer the question. Actually, we see the increase on the die size, but we
cannot nail down the, we say the mid-single digit, but I expect it to start to increase. And
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whether that will increase our forecast and our growth or something, it's still too early to
say at this moment.
So may we learn that the opportunities and implications of the new technology for the
industry and for our firm, and also should we expect this platform to offer additional
competitive advantage for TSMC in the mid to long run? Thank you.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
So, he wants to know our positioning or progress on silicon photonics. How important is
this, and will this be a competitive advantage for TSMC going forward in the future?
A - C.C. Wei
Okay. Let me answer that question. Silicon photonics actually is growing its importance
because of just a larger amount of data need to be collected, processed, and transferred
in an energy-efficient manner.
FINAL
Silicon photonics tends to be the best fit that role. And TSMC has been working on silicon
photonics for years, and most importantly, we're collaborating with multiple leading
customers to support their innovations in this field.
It takes a lot of time to develop the technology and to build the capacity. And when we
increase the volume production, we believe that TSMC's silicon photonics will be the best
technology and when customers roll out all their innovations. But as I said, it's gradually
increasing in their activity and gradually increasing their demand as of today.
Operator
Bloomberg Transcript
Meanwhile, SOIC has been introduced for quite a while, whereas the customer adoption
still seems to be limited at this point. And so when should we expect a more meaningful
pickup of SOIC and what could be the major catalyst? Thank you.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
A - C.C. Wei
Let me answer that. It's not because of increasing of the cost in the more advanced node.
It actually, they try to -- our customer try to maximize the system performance. That's the
major portion. That including the kind of speed improvement or the power consumption
decrease, all those kind of thing, put all together. And maybe cost is also part of the
consideration, which we notice about.
And so more and more customer are moving into the very advanced technology node,
and they start to adopt the chipless approaches. And so -- but no matter what, TSMC
provide the industry-leading solution in both very leading technology and also very
advanced packaging technology. And to work with a customer for their product and have
the best system performance.
And the other one is you are asking about the SOIC, when it will become a high volume
and more substantial revenue for TSMC. It's coming. It's coming. Actually, the customer
already ready to announce their new product, which widely adopt. And I expect starting
Bloomberg Transcript
from now and next year, the SOIC will generate revenue and become one of the faster-
growing advanced packaging solution in the next few years.
A - C.C. Wei
Well, Sunny, the last time we say that we will double our CoWoS capacity, we are working
very hard again to increase the capacity more than double. But today is limited by my
supplier's capability or their capacity.
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
So we still maintain that we will double our CoWoS capacity by the end of 2024, but the
total output actually is more than double from 2023 to 2024 because of a very high
demand from our customer. So extend this kind of a trend, we will continue to increase
our CoWoS capacity to support our customer even into 2025.
Operator
Next one, please welcome, Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.
A - C.C. Wei
Yes. Mehdi, I don't think we can comment on specific customer products, but I can tell you
that we're not seeing any dramatic change in the seasonality as of now.
Page 21 of 26
Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
a combination of a stronger new product ramp and better pricing? Is that a fair
assessment?
A - C.C. Wei
Well, let me give you one simple reason, because our ramp up of N3 because of the
demand of N3 is strong, so ramp up quickly to meet customers' demand. So the final
result is better than we expected three months ago.
So Mehdi's second question, he would like to clarify. So are we saying that customer's
inventory is reaching or approaching a bottom, but the slope of the inventory is not clear?
Is that what we are saying?
A - C.C. Wei
Okay, I'll answer the question. Actually, in these couple of months, we started to see the
demand stabilized in the PC and smartphone end market. And, in fact, we see some kind
of an urgent PO asking for more devices to be shifted to their place to meet the demand.
That gave us a hint of their inventory control already become more healthier than we
thought.
So in terms of uncertain macro, it probably will continue, but our expectation is very close
to a healthy condition. So that's why we say we can expect 2024 to be a healthy growth
year for TSMC.
A - C.C. Wei
Mehdi, did I answer your question?
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Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
Operator
Next one to ask question is Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.
And as you look into next year, as more mature node capacity comes online across the
industry, how do you think about mature node gross margins also? And I have a follow-up
after that.
A - C.C. Wei
Yes. Krish, in the past, our leading nodes normally reached gross margins -- corporate
margin in about eight quarters. But as we progress with more and more leading nodes, it
will become more and more challenging because of several reasons.
First of all, our corporate margin is higher than before. And secondly, the leading node, as
I just said, is becoming more and more complex. And also, in the past few years, the
inflation pressure that was not expected also contribute the higher cost in the N3. So it's
going to be pretty challenging for future leading nodes to reach corporate margin as in
before -- like before in the same time frame.
The mature nodes, I can tell you that our mature nodes are -- the gross margins are really
congregated around the corporate average in a pretty narrow band, because we focus on
specialty technology, it's not a commodity capacity. Yes.
Page 23 of 26
Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
of employees before you can actually start getting this production since you're still
maintaining the output to be in first half of 2025? Thank you.
A - C.C. Wei
Of course. We continue to hire the local talent to join the TSMC's fab in Arizona. So when
we start to have a volume production, we are confident that we will have enough
resources to support our ramp-up in Arizona.
Operator
Yes. The last one to ask question, Charles Shi from Needham.
Bloomberg Transcript
And the relative, let's say, your expectation like three to six months ago when you were
reducing your '23 outlook, is 5-nanometer doing better than expected? And how has the
demand trended in the last two, three months for 5-nanometer? Thank you.
And then he's asking about what is the outlook for the next three to six months for 5-
nanometer specifically?
Page 24 of 26
Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
HPC also includes the AI-related demand. Smartphone, basically, some customers'
product seasonalities. Now, forward-looking wise, I'm not going to share with you, but we
will tell you in January what actual the next quarter N5 revenue will be.
FINAL
But if we are expecting total CapEx for '24 to grow in dollar term over '23, it seems like
you are expecting a CapEx ramp in 2024. Maybe that's your planning for some of the
CapEx ramp in '24. Is that the right way to think about the CapEx, is $7 billion really like a
bottom level run rate for TSMC CapEx at this point? Thank you.
A - C.C. Wei
Charles, every year, the CapEx is invested based on the future opportunity to growth and
we invested to capture those future opportunities. Too early to talk about 2024 really. We'll
share the guidance with you in January quarterly release.
Page 25 of 26
Company Name: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
Company Ticker: 2330 TT Equity
Date: 2023-10-19
conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now. The transcript will become
available 24 hours from now. Both of these you will -- are available and you can find
through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.
So thank you, everyone for taking the time to join us today. We hope everyone continues
to be well and we hope to see you join us again in January. Goodbye, and have a good
day. Thank you.
FINAL
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