Enhanced Momentum Strategies
Enhanced Momentum Strategies
Enhanced Momentum Strategies
Abstract
This paper compares the performance of three enhanced momentum strategies pro-
scaled momentum, and dynamic-scaled momentum. Using data for individual stocks
from the U.S. and across 48 international countries, we find that all three approaches
tently superior. Finally, cross-country analyses relate momentum and the two constant
overconfidence.
We thank Pedro Barroso, David Blitz, Winfried Hallerbach, Christoph Kaserer, Martin Martens, Laurens
Swinkels, Milan Vidojevic, Pim van Vliet, Florian Weigert, two anonymous referees and the conference and
seminar participants at the 36th International Conference of the French Finance Association (AFFI), the
Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds and Factor Investing Conference, TUM School of Management, Robeco, and
the University of Münster for helpful comments. Furthermore, we are grateful for the provision of Matlab
code to conduct the model comparison tests using the Sharpe measure by Cesare Robotti. Disclosures:
Hanauer is also employed by Robeco, an asset management firm that, among other strategies, also offers
factor investing strategies. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily
shared by Robeco. Earlier versions of this paper were circulated under the title “Managing the Risk of
Momentum”. Any remaining errors are our own.
Email: [email protected], [email protected]
The evidence for momentum is pervasive: Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) discover that past
winner (loser) stocks tend to have relatively high (low) future returns. Momentum poses an
explanatory problem on the Capital Asset Pricing model (CAPM) of Sharpe (1964), Lintner
(1965), and Mossin (1966), as well as on the Fama and French (1993, 2015) three- and
five-factor models. Within the U.S., a long-short momentum factor generates an average
raw return of 0.60% (Fama-French three-factor model (FF3FM) alpha of 0.87%) per month
between January 1930 and December 2017. Positive momentum returns have also been
identified for non-U.S. equity markets and other asset classes.1
Besides the relatively high profitability, momentum has occasionally experienced large
drawdowns (crashes), i.e., persistent strings of negative returns. In 1932, the momentum
factor for the U.S. equity market exhibited a drawdown of -68.98%. Also in 2009, the mo-
mentum factor for both the U.S. and international (non-U.S.) equity markets experienced
substantial losses. Grundy and Martin (2001) explain the risks of momentum by time-varying
factor exposures. For instance, after bear markets, the market betas of loser stocks tend to
be higher than those of winner stocks. When the market rebounds after a bear market,
the overall negative market sensitivity of the winner-minus-loser strategy generates negative
strategy returns. Similarly, Asem and Tian (2010) investigate the effect of market dynam-
ics on momentum returns in stock markets and document that there are higher momentum
returns when markets continue in the same state than when they transition to a different
1
Rouwenhorst (1998, 1999) finds that momentum strategies earn high abnormal returns in equity mar-
kets internationally, both in developed and in emerging markets. Moskowitz and Grinblatt (1999) document
momentum for industry portfolios, Asness, Liew, and Stevens (1997) and Chan, Hameed, and Tong (2000)
for country equity indices, Okunev and White (2003) and Menkhoff, Sarno, Schmeling, and Schrimpf (2012)
for currency markets, and Erb and Harvey (2006) for commodity futures. Asness, Moskowitz, and Peder-
sen (2013) confirm these findings and uncover a common factor structure among momentum returns across
asset classes. Chui, Titman, and Wei (2010) show that momentum is persistent worldwide except for Asia,
and propose cross-country differences in individualism as an explanation, while Docherty and Hurst (2018)
document that momentum is stronger in more myopic countries. Griffin, Ji, and Martin (2003) find that mo-
mentum returns cannot be attributed to macroeconomic risk factors, whereas Fama and French (2012) show
that local momentum factors are superior to a global momentum factor in pricing regional size-momentum
portfolios. Furthermore, momentum instruments for systemic exposure to latent risk factors in U.S. and
non-U.S. markets as shown in Windmüller (2021).
2.1 Data
The data analyzed in this paper is collected from various sources. We use a sample consisting
of 66,905 stocks for 49 equity markets from January 1926 to December 2017. We differentiate
into U.S. and non-U.S. (international) equity data with respect to differences in the sample
period availability. Both monthly and daily returns are measured in USD. The U.S. data
Our approach for constructing the factor portfolios follows Fama and French (1993, 2012). We
calculate the portfolio breakpoints for each country separately to ensure that country effects
do not drive our results. The market factor, RMRF, consists of value-weighted returns of
all available (and valid) securities less the risk-free rate. Since we measure returns in USD,
we calculate excess returns based on the one-month U.S. Treasury bill rate. The size and
value factors are constructed by independent double sorts and six value-weighted portfolios.
9
Following Jacobs (2016), we thereby ensure that the six size-momentum portfolios contain at least five
stocks on average. As a consequence, some countries (such as India, Hong Kong, and Spain) are excluded
from the sample for certain months. Jordan, Sri Lanka, Slovakia, and Venezuela are excluded from the whole
sample.
Analogous to the value factor, we categorize stocks based on the 70% and 30% percentiles
of the past 12-2 month cumulative returns as Winner, Neutral and Loser (W , N , and L)
stocks to form the momentum factor, where only NYSE (big) stocks are considered for
the breakpoint calculation. We then calculate the monthly value-weighted returns for the
2x3 portfolios (BW , BN , BL, SW , SN , SL). Momentum is constructed by the long-
short portfolio as M OM = (BW + SW ) /2 − (BL + SL) /2 and - in contrast to SMB and
HML - rebalanced every month.10 Asness and Frazzini (2013) introduce the so-called HML-
devil factor (denoted as HMLd ). HMLd is comparable to HML but updates the market
10
As stated above, we use the Fama-French factors from Kenneth French’s website for the U.S. sample.
The momentum factor and enhanced momentum strategies, however, are constructed by ourselves in order
to ensure an identical stock universe for construction.
10
Volatility scaling aims to manage the realized volatility of an investment strategy. For cross-
sectional (our benchmark strategy) momentum, realized volatility has been shown to have
a positive (negative) correlation with future volatility (returns) and to be relatively high
as compared to other factors.11 In this study, we identify two potential channels for Sharpe
ratio improvements by volatility scaling: volatility smoothing refers to the overall lowered ex-
post volatility, and volatility timing to the heightened strategy returns due to the negative
correlation between volatility and returns. We compute the realized total and downside
volatility of the momentum strategy to control for volatility.12
Importantly, volatility scaling does not directly consider the positive autocorrelation of
monthly momentum strategy returns. Thus, one can additionally control for the realized
return of the momentum strategy to capture the positive autocorrelation. Combining these
insights, forecasted returns and variances (or volatilities) at the strategy-level can gener-
ate scaling weights that increase the Sharpe ratio of momentum compared to a non-scaled
strategy. Technically, as a net-zero investment long-short strategy, momentum can be scaled
without assuming leverage costs and the scaling can be interpreted as having a time-varying
weight in the long and short legs. We explicitly distinguish between constant-volatility scaling
and dynamic scaling.
Constant volatility-scaled momentum (cMOM), as proposed in Barroso and Santa-Clara
(2015), adjusts the momentum portfolio to a constant target volatility level. The correspond-
11
See, among other, Bekaert and Wu (2000), Barroso and Santa-Clara (2015) or Moreira and Muir (2017).
12
Alternatively, one could use the volatility of individual constituents of the momentum long-short port-
folios. However, using volatility at the strategy level is preferable for momentum due to the possibility of
volatility timing. Individual volatilities are rather useful to control for realized volatility (volatility smooth-
ing) of time-series momentum strategies (see, e.g., also du Plessis and Hallerbach, 2016, for U.S. industry
portfolios). Time-series momentum strategies are scaled upward by volatility (not the inverse, as for cross-
sectional momentum) due to the positive relation between volatility and returns.
11
σtarget
wcM OM,t = , (2)
σ̂t
where σtarget is chosen that the full sample volatilities of momentum and cMOM are identical,
and σ̂t = Et−1 [σt ] is the forecasted respective expected volatility.13 Since the forecasted
volatility varies over time, the weights for the constant volatility-scaled momentum portfolio
can take values between 0 (for σ̂t = ∞) and infinity (for σ̂t = 0). Following Barroso and
Santa-Clara (2015), we calculate the monthly volatility forecast for month t from past daily
returns of momentum in the previous six months (126 trading days),
126 2
RM OM,d−j,t
OM,t = 21 · (3)
2
X
σ̂M .
j=1 126
where RM
2
OM,d−j,t is the squared realized daily return of momentum returns summed over the
last 126 trading days.14 The correspondingly weighted momentum strategy is cMOM, where
the return in month t is calculated by weighting with the inverse of the realized volatility,
126 2
RM OM,d−j,t I|RM OM,d−j <0|
2
= 21 · (5)
X
σ̂M .
OM,t,semi
j=1 126
13
Doing so, we (i) ensure that the strategy targets a constant risk level over time and (ii) make the returns
of the scaled and unscaled strategy comparable.
14
For robustness, we also use a one-month look-back window (21 trading days) as in Moreira and Muir
(2017). Our results remain unchanged.
12
where µ̂t = Et−1 [µt ] (σ̂t2 = Et−1 [σt2 ]) is the forecasted respective the conditional expected
return (variance) of momentum, and λ is a static scalar scaling the dynamic strategy to the
full sample volatility of momentum. The estimation of µ̂t and σ̂t2 can be conducted either
in-sample or out-of-sample. We apply only the out-of-sample approach because the in-sample
estimation suffers from a look-ahead bias. The return of momentum is forecasted with the
following time-series regression:
where IBear,t−1 is a bear-market indicator that equals one if the cumulative past two year
market return is negative (and zero otherwise), σRM
2
RF,t−1 is the realized variance of RMRF
over the past 126 days, γint is the regression coefficient on the interaction term of the two
independent variables, and γ0 is the regression intercept. The expected return (µ̂t ) is defined
as the fitted values from the regression. We estimate Equation 7 on a monthly updated
15
It is, however, an underlying assumption of how investors end up with their return and variances forecasts,
respectively how their expectations align for the weight components. Daniel and Moskowitz (2016) mention
that investors optimize their objective function in-sample and unconditionally, which implies a forward-
looking bias. In this regard, we estimate return and variance out-of-sample.
13
Comparing the constant-volatility and the dynamic strategy, cMOM, and dMOM, the weights
differ by Et−1 [µt ] = µ̂t . Hence, the scaling weights of the dynamic strategies can take on
negative values when µ̂t < 0, e.g., (i) in bear market states and (ii) when market volatility
is higher as γint from Equation 7 is negative for most months. This possibility implies that
the dynamic weights might vary more strongly than the constant-volatility scaling weights,
capturing the dynamics of momentum returns.
2.4 Methodology
14
Maximum Sharpe ratio tests To quantify the differences in maximum Sharpe ratios for
different sets of factors, we apply the methodology from Barillas et al. (2019). In the mean-
variance efficient portfolio optimization, the economic significance of factors is quantified by
comparing how much an investor could gain from adding a certain factor to her investment
opportunity set. We start by calculating the differences between the bias-adjusted sample
squared Sharpe ratios for various pairs of factor models. The squared Sharpe ratio for each
model is modified to be unbiased for small samples under joint normality by multiplying it
by (T-K-2)/T and subtracting K/T, where T is the number of return observations and K is
the number of factors.
However, comparing mean-variance efficient tangency portfolios, as described above, does
not provide statistical evidence. Thus, we compute p-values for the test of equality of the
squared Sharpe ratios, also in a pairwise manner. For nested models (i.e., all of the factors
in one model are contained in the other model), we test whether the squared Sharpe ratio for
the model with more factors is higher than the squared Sharpe ratio of the model with fewer
factors. This becomes equivalent to testing whether the factors in the larger model that are
not also in the smaller model have significant alphas when regressed on the smaller model.
For example, because the CAPM is nested in the Fama-French three-factor model, one would
17
See, among others, Huberman and Kandel (1987).
15
Transaction Costs As in Grundy and Martin (2001) and Barroso and Santa-Clara (2015),
we calculate the round-trip costs that would render the profits of the different momentum
strategies insignificant at a certain α-significance level as
1.96 µ¯s 19
Round-trip costsα=5% = 1 − . (9)
t-stats T ¯Os
where µ¯s is the average monthly return, T ¯Os is the average monthly turnover, and t-stats is
the t-statistic of strategy s. Round-trip costs are advantageous since they define an upper
bound for the potential transaction costs instead of quantifying them directly. Only the
strategy returns, as well as the associated portfolio turnover, are necessary input factors.20
Moreover, statistical significance can be incorporated within the round-trip costs measure.
Holding turnover fixed, round-trip costs with reliance on the α-significance level increase for
strategies with higher t-statistics and, therefore, lead to a higher upper bound.
3 Empirical results
16
For the long U.S. sample, the average monthly return of the standard momentum (MOM)
factor amounts to 0.60%, with a highly significant t-statistic of 4.40. However, as Barroso
and Santa-Clara (2015) and Daniel and Moskowitz (2016) already show, momentum also has
a dark side. The high returns come with a very high kurtosis and negative skewness, implying
large drawdowns (fat left tails) such as the maximum drawdown for the momentum factor in
1932 of -69.09%. The returns of the standard momentum factor for the non-U.S. sample show
similar features. The average monthly return is 0.54%, with a t-statistic of 2.81. The higher t-
statistics for the U.S. sample can be attributed to the larger number of monthly observations,
as indicated by similar annualized Sharpe ratios (0.47 vs. 0.53). The momentum returns for
the non-U.S. sample also exhibit a high kurtosis and a negative skewness but are more
normally distributed compared to their counterparts for the long sample. This result is also
reflected in the lower maximum drawdown in 2009 of -41.36%.
Comparing enhanced momentum strategies with MOM, we show that all of them exhibit
higher t-statistics and Sharpe ratios (both nearly double compared to standard momentum).
Furthermore, skewness, kurtosis, and maximum drawdowns decrease in magnitude as com-
pared to MOM so that their distributions become more normally distributed. As momentum
crashes typically happen following a bear market and when the contemporaneous market
return is positive (cf. Asem and Tian, 2010, ‘bear-up month’), we also compute the average
return (and t-statistic) for these months. We document statistically significant negative mean
returns returns during these bear-up states for both samples and all momentum strategies
except dMOM. The reason for this exception seems that solely dMOM accounts for the lower
expected momentum returns during bear market states, i.e., that it can also take a negative
weight in momentum.
To shed light on the co-movement of factor returns, Table 3 shows pairwise factor corre-
lation coefficients for both the U.S. and non-U.S. samples.
17
18
The first row in both panels of Table 4 depicts the results from factor spanning tests of
momentum. The FFd alpha of MOM amounts to 0.88% and 0.97% monthly for the U.S.
and non-U.S. samples, respectively. However, when adding enhanced momentum strategies
as benchmark assets, the alphas substantially decrease in value (up to 0.04% and -0.04%),
remaining only statistically significant with respect to dMOM for both the U.S. and the non-
U.S. sample. If standard momentum was regressed on dMOM standalone, the alpha would
be insignificant. This difference stems from the interaction with FFd factors. As we saw in
Table 3, HMLd is most negatively correlated with momentum, followed by cMOM, sMOM,
and dMOM. This highly negative correlation makes momentum relatively more attractive
when controlling for HMLd than when not.
To get further insights into the relative improvement of enhanced strategies, we employ
them as test assets. In the second to the fourth row of each panel, we regress enhanced
momentum strategies on the FFd factors plus momentum in the first column and separately
add another enhanced momentum strategy as benchmark asset in columns 2 to 4. We find
that the alphas of all three enhanced strategies with respect to the FFd factors plus momen-
tum are economically and statistically significant (first column). For the U.S. in Panel A,
sMOM is subsumed by cMOM and dMOM, while cMOM and dMOM yield significant span-
ning alphas when controlling for sMOM, as depicted in the third column. These results are
confirmed for the non-U.S. sample in Panel B, with the sole difference that dMOM is sub-
sumed by both cMOM and sMOM. In sum, we conclude that momentum is not subsumed
by dMOM and that the volatility-scaled strategies add to the investment opportunity set
19
Panel A in Table 5 shows the differences between the (bias-adjusted) sample squared
Sharpe ratios (column minus row for the upper triangle; vice versa for the lower triangle)
for different sets of factors and the U.S. (non-U.S.) sample in the upper (lower) triangles.
Panel B reports p-values for the tests of equality of the squared Sharpe ratios. The p-values
are computed differently depending on whether the models to be compared are nested or
non-nested.
The main findings can be summarized as follows: First, the results show that the FF3FM
plus momentum (Carhart, 1997) is dominated by the FFd model plus momentum with signif-
icance at the 1% level for both samples. This result primarily stems from the more negative
correlation of momentum and HMLd as identified in Table 3 and confirms the results in Asness
and Frazzini (2013) and Hanauer (2020). When we augment the FFd model plus momentum
with enhanced strategies, the resulting five-factor models outperform the non-augmented
model, irrespective of the enhanced momentum strategy (cMOM, sMOM, or dMOM), at the
1% level. As already suggested by the factor spanning tests, enhanced momentum strate-
gies incorporate significant information, even beyond standard momentum. When comparing
the models augmented with enhanced strategies among each other, the emerging picture is
less clear: in the non-U.S. sample, the augmented model with cMOM outperforms the one
augmented with sMOM (-0.024) at the 5% level (p=0.037), and the augmented model with
dMOM is outperformed by the one with cMOM (-0.034) at the 10% level (p=0.089). In con-
20
In the previous subsection, we demonstrated that the enhanced momentum strategies exhibit
higher risk-adjusted performance than momentum and that they are distinct phenomena for
the U.S. and the non-U.S. sample. Within this subsection, we investigate for which countries
enhanced momentum strategies yield an improvement. Moreover, we utilize diverse cross-
country characteristics to investigate potential drivers of momentum premia.
In Table 6, we present mean returns and t-statistics for momentum and the enhanced
versions. We include only countries for which more than 120 monthly observations of the
strategies are available. The values printed in bold indicate statistically significant (enhanced)
momentum strategy returns. The enhanced versions have both higher returns and risk-return
ratios (t-statistics) across countries. For 19 out of 23 developed market countries, momentum
has significant returns.
For Japan, none of the enhanced strategies, for the Ireland cMOM, for Spain cMOM and
sMOM, and for Singapore all enhanced strategies generate significant premia, respectively.
In contrast, momentum has an insignificant premium in each of the countries. 14 out of
20 countries in the emerging markets have insignificant momentum returns, of which seven
show significant returns for at least one enhanced momentum strategy. Special attention is
paid to Asia, for which momentum is found to deliver insignificant returns (see, e.g., Chui
et al., 2010). The enhanced strategies generate statistically significant and positive returns
21
22
23
where Xi,t is a vector of country characteristics. We include time effects to account for
country-invariant time effects, e.g., global macroeconomic shocks that affect countries across
the globe, and subsequently add country fixed effects to control for time-invariant country
characteristics that affect momentum, such as the accessibility of the local stock market.
Standard errors are double-clustered by country and month. All explanatory variables (ex-
cept dummy variables) are standardized to have a mean of zero and a variance of one.
Furthermore, we also estimate a fixed-effects model to investigate the differences in expo-
sure to the cross-country predictors between momentum and enhanced momentum strategies.
Econometrically, we follow Ozdagli (2017), who compares the point estimates between rated
and unrated firms within a panel regression framework, including variation across firms and
time. The results of this specification are presented in Table A.8 of the appendix.
Table 7 shows the results for the cross-country analysis. We find the by far strongest
impact (t-statistic of 6.96!) for the market continuation dummy. For countries in a market
continuation month (e.g., positive market return following a positive year for the market),
momentum returns are, on average, 1.86% higher than for countries in a market reversal
month (e.g., positive market return following a negative year for the market). This result
expands the findings of Asem and Tian (2010) and Hanauer (2014), who provide evidence
for the time-series momentum predictability of the market continuation dummy in single
markets. The individualism score is statistically significant but economically and statistically
weaker (t-statistic of 2.07), suggesting that time-invariant overconfidence proxied by the
24
25
26
Table 8 shows that MOM, cMOM, and sMOM are more related to market continuations
in bear than to market continuations in bull markets. Specifically, we find that during
bear markets, a market continuation, defined as a contemporaneous down-movement of the
market, generates significantly higher returns (2.96% to 3.73%) as compared to a market
reversal, defined as a contemporaneous market up-movement. In contrast, the difference is
statistically insignificant (t=1.34) for dMOM. During bull markets, a market continuation
generates significantly higher returns than a reversal across all four strategies, although the
difference is economically weaker for dMOM. The cross-country results for MOM, cMOM,
and sMOM are still consistent with Daniel et al. (1998) and Asem and Tian (2010). However,
for dMOM, the sensitivity toward the market continuation dummy is only existent for bull,
but not for bear markets, so that the behavior of dMOM is not entirely consistent with Daniel
et al. (1998).
The higher sensitivity of momentum to market continuations in bear markets is also con-
sistent with the option-like behavior of momentum during bear markets described in Daniel
and Moskowitz (2016), i.e., momentum in bear markets behaves like a written (short) call
option on the market. This behavior can be seen as consistent with the theory of Merton
(1974) that a common stock is a call option on the value of the firm. As a consequence,
expected momentum returns are low in bear markets with high volatility and a contempora-
neous market reversal. As the weight of dMOM in MOM linearly increases with the expected
momentum return for the next month (see Equation 6), it is smallest in these moments.25
These mechanics explain why the sensitivity of dMOM to market continuations is reduced
more in bear markets than in bull markets.
25
The estimated value for γint in Equation 6 is negative for nearly all months
27
All momentum strategies are constructed as zero-cost long-short strategies. The returns
reported in Table 2, however, ignore transaction costs for implementing the strategies. As
mentioned in Barroso and Santa-Clara (2015), “[o]ne relevant issue is whether time-varying
weights induce such an increase in turnover that eventually offsets the benefits of the strategy
after transaction costs.” Table 9 shows the average (over time) one-way portfolio turnover of
the long leg plus the short leg. We find, on average, a turnover of more than 50% per month
when using value-weighted returns for all strategies.26 For the U.S. sample in Panel A,
turnover increases for all enhanced strategies, especially for dMOM, reaching a maximum
of 85.43% monthly and an increase in turnover of 30.09 (85.43-55.34) percentage points as
compared to momentum. Similar results hold for the shorter global sample (from January
1990 to December 2017) in Panel B, where dMOM generates a maximum average monthly
turnover of 74.24%.27 Next, we aim to investigate whether the increase in turnover offsets
the benefits of volatility scaling.
Round-trip costs describe transaction cost levels (in percent) that would render the strate-
gies’ returns statistically insignificant at confidence levels of 5% and 1%. Panel A of Table 9
shows that momentum investors within the U.S. are only 5% sure that their strategy will have
positive net profits when transaction costs do not exceed 0.60%. Comparing the enhanced
strategies, the transaction costs that would remove the statistical significance of profits (at
the 5% level) are higher than for conventional momentum and highest for dynamic-scaled mo-
mentum (1.03%). When increasing the confidence level, a similar picture emerges. Panel B
shows that for the global sample, constant volatility-scaled momentum clearly gives the high-
26
Our monthly turnover for momentum, however, is lower than the 74% in Barroso and Santa-Clara (2015).
We trace back the difference to not using decile momentum portfolios but forming HML-style portfolios based
on 70/30% percentile breakpoints and double-sorts including size. We are able to validate the turnover for
the equivalent sub-sample period using the more extreme decile breakpoints and single sorts.
27
Daniel and Moskowitz (2016) do not report any turnover or break-even cost statistics for their dynamic
strategies.
28
Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) document that momentum returns are positive in all months
except January, but losers significantly outperform winners in January. This result has been
confirmed by Jegadeesh and Titman (2001), Grundy and Martin (2001), and Blitz, Huij, and
Martens (2011), among others. Importantly, Grundy and Martin (2001) point out that in
January, the momentum strategy “[...] goes short in prior losers, and prior losers tend to
have become extremely small firms”, which is traced back to fund managers selling small-cap
loser stocks in December that reverse in January. In Table 10, we split up our sample into
January and non-January months.
Panel A shows the mean percentage returns and t-statistics for the U.S. sample. Even
28
See Novy-Marx and Velikov (2016) for details on these two subjects.
29
4 Conclusion
This paper studies the performance of three enhanced momentum strategies proposed in
the literature — constant volatility-scaled momentum (cMOM), constant semi-volatility-
scaled momentum (sMOM), and dynamic-scaled momentum (dMOM) — for a total of 49
developed and emerging market countries and a sample period of about 28 years (88 years
for the U.S.). We document that all three enhanced momentum strategies substantially
increase in Sharpe ratios, both skewness and kurtosis decrease in magnitude, and suffer
from less pronounced drawdowns. Furthermore, enhanced momentum strategies generate
significantly positive alphas in mean-variance spanning tests on asset pricing factors that
include standard momentum. Ex-post maximum Sharpe ratio tests, as in Barillas et al.
(2019), confirm that all enhanced momentum strategies significantly increase the maximum
Sharpe ratio as compared to the factor opportunity set that already includes momentum for
both the U.S. and the non-U.S. sample. However, no clear picture emerges when we compare
the three enhanced approaches with this methodology.
We then exploit the dispersion in both country characteristics and momentum returns of
our international dataset and conduct panel regressions to explain the variation of momen-
tum returns across countries. Our results show that momentum, constant volatility-scaled
momentum, and constant semi-volatility-scaled momentum are most affected by proxies for
30
31
32
Canada DM 3715 223 2183 757 789063 2.39 1990-01-01 2017-12-31
Chile EM 242 73 170 918 141856 0.43 1996-07-01 2017-12-31
China EM 3036 101 2943 1320 2573417 7.78 1999-07-01 2017-12-31
Colombia EM 73 30 55 2531 117104 0.35 2005-07-01 2017-12-31
Czech Republic EM 57 30 48 529 18235 0.06 2001-07-01 2006-01-31
Denmark DM 319 124 205 945 144378 0.44 1993-07-01 2017-12-31
Egypt EM 157 116 135 400 50502 0.15 2008-07-01 2017-12-31
Finland DM 220 44 136 1614 191458 0.58 1994-07-01 2017-12-31
France DM 1616 176 793 1896 1232386 3.73 1990-01-01 2017-12-31
Germany DM 1459 271 867 1640 1033357 3.13 1990-01-01 2017-12-31
33
Russia EM 468 163 347 2412 590562 1.79 2008-07-01 2017-12-31
Singapore DM 834 48 563 598 212403 0.64 1990-07-01 2017-12-31
South Africa EM 746 133 433 1091 276045 0.83 1995-07-01 2017-12-31
South Korea EM 2478 109 1930 488 530532 1.60 1994-01-01 2017-12-31
Spain DM 318 100 160 3550 474230 1.43 1992-07-01 2017-12-31
Sweden DM 861 96 498 1001 305963 0.93 1992-07-01 2017-12-31
Switzerland DM 358 108 238 3655 769711 2.33 1990-01-01 2017-12-31
Taiwan EM 2097 231 1740 552 588967 1.78 1998-07-01 2017-12-31
Thailand EM 790 225 614 389 179716 0.54 1995-07-01 2017-12-31
Turkey EM 435 65 349 587 149831 0.45 1997-07-01 2017-12-31
34
35
36
37
FFd +MOM 0.065 0.033 0.024 0.032
FFd +MOM+cMOM 0.142 0.077 -0.010 -0.001
FFd +MOM+sMOM 0.119 0.053 -0.024 0.008
FFd +MOM+dMOM 0.108 0.042 -0.034 -0.011
Panel B: p-Values
FF+MOM 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000
FFd +MOM 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
FFd +MOM+cMOM 0.000 0.000 0.013 0.810
Argentina EM 195 0.72 ( 1.39) 0.80 ( 1.48) 0.72 ( 1.33) -0.69 (-1.35)
Brazil EM 210 0.30 ( 0.73) 0.62 ( 1.52) 0.66 ( 1.62) 0.73 ( 1.80)
Chile EM 258 0.83 ( 3.62) 0.96 ( 4.21) 1.00 ( 4.38) 0.94 ( 4.11)
China EM 222 -0.47 (-1.58) -0.18 (-0.62) -0.14 (-0.46) -0.05 (-0.18)
Colombia EM 150 0.35 ( 1.09) 0.46 ( 1.43) 0.38 ( 1.18) 0.01 ( 0.02)
Greece EM 270 0.67 ( 1.31) 1.36 ( 2.66) 1.35 ( 2.63) 1.78 ( 3.46)
Hungary EM 129 0.12 ( 0.28) 0.06 ( 0.14) 0.00 ( 0.00) 0.09 ( 0.20)
India EM 246 1.22 ( 2.51) 2.00 ( 4.10) 1.94 ( 3.98) 2.41 ( 4.95)
Indonesia EM 258 0.00 ( 0.00) 1.39 ( 2.27) 1.37 ( 2.23) 0.77 ( 1.25)
Malaysia EM 288 0.32 ( 0.79) 1.76 ( 4.32) 1.87 ( 4.59) 1.73 ( 4.25)
Mexico EM 246 0.63 ( 2.01) 0.95 ( 3.04) 0.97 ( 3.12) 1.22 ( 3.92)
Pakistan EM 246 1.01 ( 2.33) 1.48 ( 3.41) 1.61 ( 3.72) 1.37 ( 3.16)
Peru EM 158 0.02 ( 0.03) -0.03 (-0.05) 0.18 ( 0.33) -0.14 (-0.26)
Philippines EM 258 0.07 ( 0.12) 0.93 ( 1.53) 0.89 ( 1.47) 0.60 ( 0.99)
Poland EM 207 1.07 ( 3.16) 1.61 ( 4.73) 1.66 ( 4.88) 1.74 ( 5.11)
South Africa EM 270 1.46 ( 5.21) 1.82 ( 6.48) 1.82 ( 6.47) 1.82 ( 6.46)
South Korea EM 286 0.31 ( 0.75) 1.01 ( 2.47) 1.05 ( 2.56) -0.38 (-0.94)
Taiwan EM 234 0.30 ( 0.87) 0.79 ( 2.27) 0.81 ( 2.32) 1.24 ( 3.56)
Thailand EM 270 0.64 ( 1.31) 1.59 ( 3.26) 1.62 ( 3.33) 1.68 ( 3.45)
Turkey EM 246 0.06 ( 0.18) 0.35 ( 1.04) 0.32 ( 0.96) 0.79 ( 2.36)
38
39
Idiosyncratic volatility −0.44 −0.38 −0.39 −0.07 −0.74 −0.76 −0.78 −0.32
(−2.83) (−3.62) (−3.73) (−0.59) (−3.58) (−5.22) (−5.01) (−1.68)
Fraction zero return days −0.03 −0.09 −0.09 −0.09 0.02 −0.05 −0.05 −0.07
(−0.39) (−1.02) (−1.02) (−0.68) (0.11) (−0.26) (−0.23) (−0.29)
Number of analysts 0.09 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.03 −0.09 −0.11 −0.07
(1.43) (1.40) (1.25) (1.01) (0.25) (−0.71) (−0.74) (−0.31)
Analysts forecast dispersion −0.08 −0.06 −0.06 −0.09 −0.06 −0.05 −0.04 −0.05
(−1.02) (−1.13) (−1.05) (−1.26) (−0.77) (−0.86) (−0.77) (−0.67)
Short selling dummy −0.02 −0.19 −0.21 0.25
(−0.09) (−0.78) (−0.88) (0.82)
Developed market dummy −0.15 −0.26 −0.27 −0.19
40
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
MOM cMOM sMOM dMOM MOM cMOM sMOM dMOM
Market Cont. Dummy (Bear Market) 3.73 3.03 2.96 0.62
(7.50) (7.54) (7.55) (1.34)
Market Cont. Dummy (Bull Market) 1.18 1.33 1.31 0.82
(5.22) (5.42) (5.28) (4.51)
Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Month FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Country FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
41
1,000,000
10,000
Cum. Performance
100
42
50
20
Cum. Performance
10
43
0
Maximum Drawdown (%)
Strategy
−100 WML
cMOM
sMOM
dMOM
−200
New Zealand
South Korea
South Africa
Netherlands
Switzerland
Hong Kong
Philippines
Singapore
Indonesia
Argentina
Colombia
Germany
Denmark
Malaysia
Australia
Thailand
Hungary
Pakistan
Portugal
Belgium
Sweden
Canada
Norway
Finland
Greece
Mexico
France
Austria
Taiwan
Poland
Ireland
Turkey
Japan
China
Spain
Brazil
Israel
Chile
India
Peru
U.K.
U.S.
Italy
44
Constituent lists
Datastream comprises three types of constituent lists: (1) research lists, (2) Worldscope lists,
and (3) dead lists. By using dead lists, we ensure to obviate any survivorship bias. For every
country we use the union of all available lists and eliminate any duplicates. As a result, we
have one remaining list for every country, which can subsequently be used in the static filter
process. Table A.1 and Table A.2 provide an overview of the constituent lists for developed
markets and emerging markets, respectively, used in our study.
Static screens
We restrict our sample to common equity stocks by applying several static screens, as shown
in Table A.3. Screen (1) to (7) are standard filters as common in the literature.
Screen (8) related to, among others, the following work: Ince and Porter (2006), Campbell,
Cowan, and Salotti (2010), Griffin et al. (2010), Karolyi, Lee, and van Dijk (2012). The
authors provide generic filter rules in order to exclude non-common equity securities from
Thomson Reuters Datastream. We apply the identified keywords and match them with the
security names provided by Datastream. A security is excluded from the sample in case a
keyword coincides with part of the security name. The following three Datastream items
store security names and are applied for the keyword filters: “NAME”, “ENAME”, and
“ECNAME”. Table A.4 gives an overview of the keywords used.
45
In addition, Griffin et al. (2010) introduce specific keywords for individual countries.
Thus, the keywords are applied on the security names of single countries only. Exemplary,
German security names are parsed to contain the word “GENUSSSCHEINE”, which declares
the security to be non-common equity. In Table A.5 we give an overview of country-specific
keyword deletions conducted in our study.
Dynamic screens
For the securities, remaining from the static screens above, we obtain return and market
capitalization data from Datastream and accounting data from Worldscope. Several dynamic
screens that are common in the literature were installed in order to account for data errors
mainly within return characteristics. The dynamic screens are shown in Table A.6.
Specifically, (one-way portfolio) turnover in month t for both the long or short portfolio leg
are calculated as:
Nt
T urnovert,Long(Short) = 0.5 × (11)
X
|xi,t − x̃i,t−1 |
i
where xi,t is the weight of stock i in the respective portfolio leg in month t (i.e., the value
proportion since we use value-weighted portfolio returns), Nt amounts to the total number
of stocks in the portfolio leg at month t, and ri,t is the return of stock i during month t, and
˜ is the weight at the end of month t − 1 resp. at the beginning of month t, right before
xi,t−1
46
xi,t−1 (1 + ri,t−1 )
x̃i,t−1 = Nt
(12)
xi,t−1 (1 + ri,t−1 )
P
i
The turnover of the long-short momentum strategies is then the sum of the average turnover
in the long and short legs, i.e., the sum of T urnoverLong and T urnoverShort . For the volatility-
scaled strategies, the turnover is derived from Equation 11 by weighting the turnover in month
t with the corresponding strategy weight:
Nt
T urnovers,t,Long/Short = 0.5 × (13)
X
|wscaled,t xi,t − wscaled,t−1 x̃i,t−1 |
i
47
48
49
50
51
Country Keywords
Australia PART PAID, RTS DEF, DEF SETT, CDI
Austria PC, PARTICIPATION CERTIFICATE, GENUSSSCHEINE,
GENUSSCHEINE
Belgium VVPR, CONVERSION, STRIP
Brazil PN, PNA, PNB, PNC, PND, PNE, PNF, PNG, RCSA, RCTB
Canada EXCHANGEABLE, SPLIT, SPLITSHARE, VTG\\.,
SBVTG\\., VOTING, SUB VTG, SERIES
Denmark \\)CSE\\)
Finland USE
France ADP, CI, SICAV, \\)SICAV\\), SICAV-
Germany GENUSSCHEINE
Greece PR
India FB DEAD, FOREIGN BOARD
Israel P1, 1, 5
Italy RNC, RP, PRIVILEGIES
Korea 1P
Mexico ’L’, ’C’
Malaysia ’A’
Netherlands CERTIFICATE, CERTIFICATES, CERTIFICATES\\),
CERT, CERTS, STK\\.
New Zealand RTS, RIGHTS
Peru INVERSION, INVN, INV
Philippines PDR
South Africa N’, OPTS\\., CPF\\., CUMULATIVE PREFERENCE
Sweden CONVERTED INTO, USE, CONVERTED-,
CONVERTED - SEE
Switzerland CONVERTED INTO, CONVERSION, CONVERSION SEE
United Kingdom PAID, CONVERSION TO, NON VOTING,
CONVERSION ’A’
52
53
Country Market Mkt. cont. dummy Firm size R2 (%) IVOL Frac. zero return days (%) No. analysts Anal. forecast disp. Short dummy Individualism
Australia DM 0.58 761.56 14.36 3.93 44.47 3.31 28.99 1.00 90
Austria DM 0.55 1023.78 23.86 2.06 38.31 3.78 33.08 1.00 55
Belgium DM 0.58 1829.31 20.28 2.00 30.44 4.23 31.11 1.00 75
Canada DM 0.53 757.41 8.12 4.83 36.53 3.38 47.13 1.00 80
Denmark DM 0.59 944.76 15.41 2.34 44.61 2.87 44.16 1.00 74
Finland DM 0.57 1614.11 18.78 2.32 30.05 6.10 30.20 0.85 63
France DM 0.57 1896.18 14.08 2.62 32.68 4.04 37.07 1.00 71
Germany DM 0.56 1640.07 15.69 2.60 35.62 4.33 44.21 1.00 67
Hong Kong DM 0.61 540.70 10.74 3.60 35.23 2.71 29.88 0.98 25
Ireland DM 0.59 1155.51 16.48 3.21 49.87 3.98 17.89 1.00 70
Israel DM 0.52 481.37 20.98 2.31 30.59 0.35 34.60 1.00 54
Italy DM 0.51 1957.96 25.07 2.03 18.39 5.29 37.15 1.00 76
Japan DM 0.55 1184.32 22.30 2.35 26.37 1.95 30.79 1.00 46
Netherlands DM 0.55 2727.53 22.70 2.14 22.94 9.39 35.74 1.00 80
54
New Zealand DM 0.57 381.43 21.54 2.66 49.63 2.43 15.49 1.00 79
Norway DM 0.56 942.30 16.63 2.93 40.02 4.03 52.16 1.00 69
Portugal DM 0.56 1118.58 21.42 2.61 42.09 3.78 32.28 1.00 27
Singapore DM 0.56 598.20 16.78 3.23 45.58 5.26 26.31 0.00 20
Spain DM 0.53 3550.06 25.75 1.87 29.07 8.99 32.67 1.00 51
Sweden DM 0.56 1001.23 18.58 3.30 26.69 3.78 46.46 1.00 71
Switzerland DM 0.57 3654.92 21.09 1.92 34.53 5.80 28.77 1.00 68
U.K. DM 0.57 1626.10 15.36 2.46 51.41 3.97 25.20 1.00 89
U.S. DM 0.63 2907.11 13.69 3.48 12.44 5.23 3.24 1.00 91
55
(−2.72) (−2.58) (−2.81) (0.24) (−1.94) (−1.56) (−1.77) (0.78)
Idiosyncratic volatility −0.44 0.06 0.04 0.36 −0.74 0.05 0.03 0.32
(−2.83) (0.73) (0.52) (2.65) (−3.58) (0.57) (0.36) (2.44)
Fraction zero return days −0.03 −0.06 −0.06 −0.06 0.02 −0.05 −0.05 −0.03
(−0.39) (−1.36) (−1.34) (−0.50) (0.11) (−1.01) (−0.94) (−0.28)
Number of analysts 0.09 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.0005 0.005
(1.43) (0.68) (0.51) (0.23) (0.25) (0.19) (0.01) (0.04)
Analysts forecast dispersion −0.08 0.01 0.02 −0.02 −0.06 0.01 0.02 −0.01
(−1.02) (0.32) (0.36) (−0.17) (−0.77) (0.29) (0.33) (−0.06)
Short selling dummy −0.02 −0.17 −0.19 0.27
(−0.09) (−1.17) (−1.25) (0.92)
56
(−3.04) (−3.35) (−3.29) (−1.20) (−0.87) (−3.22) (−3.33) (−1.89)
Idiosyncratic volatility −0.78 −0.55 −0.55 −0.24 −0.20 −0.19 −0.20 0.11
(−2.60) (−3.28) (−3.15) (−1.16) (−2.36) (−1.85) (−2.09) (0.94)
Fraction zero return days −0.35 −0.14 −0.12 −0.02 0.12 −0.08 −0.08 −0.15
(−2.94) (−1.38) (−1.14) (−0.12) (1.49) (−0.67) (−0.71) (−0.97)
Number of analysts 0.11 0.14 0.13 0.16 0.25 0.35 0.34 0.16
(1.57) (1.95) (1.77) (1.48) (1.31) (1.84) (1.77) (0.72)
Analysts forecast dispersion −0.02 −0.01 −0.001 0.003 −0.07 −0.11 −0.12 −0.28
(−0.23) (−0.20) (−0.01) (0.04) (−0.71) (−1.23) (−1.30) (−2.44)
Short selling dummy −0.15 −0.38 −0.40 0.01 0.20 −0.02 −0.06 0.44
(−0.38) (−1.08) (−1.18) (0.02) (1.08) (−0.08) (−0.20) (1.09)
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