Mca4020 SLM Unit 01
Mca4020 SLM Unit 01
Mca4020 SLM Unit 01
Unit 1 Probability
Structure:
1.1 Introduction
Objectives
1.2 Features of Random Experiment
1.3 Definitions
Sample Space
Event
Mutually Exclusive Events
Kolmogorovs axioms of Probability
Exhaustive Event
Independent Event
Mutually and Pair wise independent Event
1.4 Additional theorems of Probability
1.5 Multiplication theorem of Probability for independent events
1.6 Conditional Probability
1.7 Bayes Theorem
1.8 Summary
1.9 Terminal Questions
1.10 Answers
1.1 Introduction
In the present chapter, we deal with some basic notions in the probability
theory which lies at the foundations of the mathematical theory of statistics.
Objectives:
At the end of this unit the student should be able :
To learn the definition of concept of random variables, sample space.
To explain mutually exclusive, equally likely, Exhaustive event.
To explain the concept of conditional probability.
1.3 Definition
1.3.1 Sample Space: With each experiment E of the type we are
considering we define the sample space as the set of all possible outcomes
of E. We usually designate this set by S.
Example:
1. Toss a die and observe the number that shows on top.
The sample space corresponding to the above experiment is
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
2. Toss a coin four times and observe the total number of heads obtained.
The sample space S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}
3. Items are manufactured until 10 non-defective items are produced. The
total number of manufactured items is counted. The sample space
S = {10, 11, 12, 13}
4. From an urn containing only black balls, a ball is chosen and its color is
noted. Therefore sample space S = {black ball}.
5. A lot of 10 items contains 3 defectives. One item is chosen after another
(without replacing the chosen item) until the last defective item is
obtained. The total number of items removed from the lot is counted.
The sample space S = {3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
Note :
But B = (A B) (B A )
and P(B) = P (A B) + P (B A )
(A B) (B A ) = (2)
(1) (2) gives
P(A B) P(B) = P(A) P(A B)
Verification:
B = A ( A B) B
P(B) = P(A) + P( A B) A
( A B) A =
P(B) P(A) P( A B) =
Definition :
1 2 n 1
1 1 ......... 1
365 365 365
12 C 11
the probability of drawing three theory books is P1
3
20 C 57
3
Example : An urn contains 5 red and 8 white balls. If seven of them are
drawn at random, what is the probability that the drawn lot contains 2 red
and 5 white balls
Solution:
The number of ways in which 7 balls can be drawn out of the given 13
is 13 C. The number of ways of drawing 2 red balls is 5 C and corresponding
7 2
to each of these 5 C ways of drawing a red ball, there are 8C ways of
2 5
drawing 5 white balls. Therefore, the total number of ways in which 2 red
and 5 white balls can be drawn is 5 C 8 C .
2 5
5C 8C 140
2 5
Accordingly, the required probability = 33%
13 C 429
7
Solution:
The number of possible outcome is 12 C = 66. The number of outcomes in
2
which both items are defective in 4 C = 6. The number of outcomes in which
2
both items are non-defectives is 8 C = 28. Therefore
2
4C 8C
6 1 28 14
P( A ) 2
and P(B) 2
12 C 66 11 12 C 66 33
2 2
We note that the event (in which at least 1 item is defective in the
complement of B.
P(C) 1 P(B)
14 19
1
33 33
P( B) P( A) P( B A )
Therefore B ( A B ) ( A B )
A A B, P( A) P( A B)
and .(2)
We have
P(A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) ( P ( A B ) 0) .(3)
From (1), (2) and (3) we have
P(A B ) P ( A) P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) .
B ( A B) ( A B)
P( B) P( A B) P( A B)
P( A B) P( B) P( A B)
P( B) P( A) P( B) by1
P( B)[1 P( A)]
P( B)[ P( A )]
P( A ) P( B)
A ( A B) ( A B )
P( A) P( A B) P( A B )
P( A B ) P( A) P( A B)
P( A) P( A) P( B) by 1
P( A)[1 P( B)]
P( A)[ P( B )]
We know that A B AB
P( A B ) P( A B)
1 P( A B)
1 [ P( A) P( B) P( A B)]
1 P( A) P( B) P( A B)
1 P( A) P( B) P( A) P( B) (Since A and B are
independent)
1 P( A) P( B)[1 P( A)]
[1 P( A)][1 P( B)]
Ie., P( A B ) P( A ) P( B )
1 1
SAQ 3: If A and B are independent and P ( A) , P( B) , find P( A B) .
3 4
SAQ 4: A coin is tossed thrice. What is the chance of getting all heads?
P( A B)
P (A/B) = (1)
P(B)
P (B/A) = P( A B) (2)
P( A )
Properties:
1) 0 P(B/A) 1
2) P (S/A) = 1
3) P (B1 B2 / A) = P(B1/A) + P(B2/A) if B1 B2 =
4) P (B1 B2 . / A) = P(B1/A) + P (B2/A) + . if Bi Bj = for i j
Note:
The most important consequences of the definition of conditional probability
is obtained by writing it in the following form.
P(A B) = P(B/A) P (A)
or equivalently
P (A B) = P(A/B) P(B)
Note:
The above multiplication theorem may be generalized to more than two
events in the following way:
P(A1 A2 An) = P(A1) P(A2/A1) P(A3/A1 A2) P(An /A1 . An1)
Definition:
We say that the events B1, B2, Bk represent a partition of the sample
space S if
a) Bi Bj = for all i j
k
b) B S
i
i 1
c) P (Bi) > 0 for all i.
P ( A B)
Applying multiplication theorem, we see that P(B) = P(B/A) P(A) + P(B/ A )
P( A )
Similarly, we can write P (A) = P(A/B) P(B) + P(A/ B ) P( B )
Example : Consider a lot of 20 defective and 80 non defective items from
which we choose 2 items without replacement.
Let A = { the first chosen item is defective}
B = {the second chosen item is defective}
Now we can compute P(B) as follows
P(B) = P (B/A) P (A) + P (B/ A ) P ( A )
19 . 20 20 80 1
99 100 99 100 5
Example: A student A can solve 75% of the problems given in this book and
a student B can solve 70%. What is the probability that A or B can solve a
problem chosen at random.
Solution: The student A can solve 75% of problems so that the probability
75 1
of his not solving a problem is P( A ) 1 .
100 4
Similarly, the probability of B not solving a problem is P( B) 1 70 3 .
100 10
As the events A and B are mutually independent, the probability of both
students not solving a problem is P( A B) P( A ) P(B) 3 by multiplication
40
theorem.
3 37
Therefore, the probability that A or B solves a problem is = 1
40 40
Example:
A problem is given to 3 students A, B, C whose chances of solving it are
1 , 1 , 1 respectively. Find the probability that the problem is solved.
2 4 5
Solution:
1 1
The probability that A fails to solve the problem is P( A ) 1
2 2
Similarly, the probabilities that B and C fail to solve the problem are,
respectively, P(B 1 3 1 4
) 1 ; P(C) 1
4 4 5 5
Since the events are independent, the probability that all the three students
fail to solve the problem is
1 3 4 3
P( A ) P(B) P(C) . .
2 4 5 10
7 3
Therefore the probability that the problem is solved 1
10 10
Example : A box A contains 2 white and 4 black balls. Another box B
contains 5 white and 7 black balls. A ball is transferred from the box A to the
box B. Then a ball is drawn from the box B. Find the probability that it is
white.
Solution:
The probability of drawing a white ball from box B will depend on whether
the transferred ball is black or white.
1 3 11
SAQ 6: If P( A ) ,P(B) , find P( A B) , find P( A / B) and P(B / A )
3 4 12
Solution: Let,
W = {Choosing a female student from among all students}; A = {choosing a
student who is taller than 1.8m}.
M = {Choosing a male student from among all students}.
P(A/W) = Probability of choosing a student who is taller than 1.8m, from
among the female students.
P (A/M) = Probability of choosing a student who is taller than 1.8m, from
among the male students. Then, from what is given, we have
We are required to find P(W/A), the probability, that the student selected is a
woman and is taller than 1.8m. By Bayes theorem, we get
P( W ) P( A / W )
P( W / A )
P( W ) P( A / W ) P(M) P( A / M)
(0.6) (0.01) 3
0.2727
(0.6) (0.01) (0.4) (0.04 ) 11
Example: A box contains 500 IC chips of which 100 are manufactured by
Company X and the rest by company Y. It is estimated that 10% of the chips
made by company X and 5% made by company Y are defective. If a
randomly selected chip is found to be defective, find the probability that it
came from company X.
Solution:
Let P(X) and P(Y) be the probabilities of choosing a chip produced by X and
Y respectively. Also, let P(d/X) and P(d/Y) be the probabilities of choosing a
defective item from the output of X and Y respectively. Then, from what is
given, we have
100 400 10 5
P( X) P( Y ) P(d / X) P(d / Y )
500 500 100 100
We are required to find P(X/d), the probability that the chip selected is
produced by X given that it is defective. By Bayes theorem we find
1
P( d / X) P( X) 50 1
P( X / d)
P( X) P( d / X) P( Y ) P( d / Y ) 1 4 3
50 100
Solution: Let P(A), P(B) and P(C) denote the probabilities of choosing an
item produced by A, B, C respectively. Also, let P(X/A), P(X/B), P(X/C)
denote the probabilities of choosing a defective item from the outputs of A,
B, C respectively. Then, from what is given, we have
60 30 10
P( A ) 0.60 P(B) 0.30 P(C) 0.10
100 100 100
2 3 4
P( X / A ) 0.02 P( X / B) 0.03 P( X / C) 0.04
100 100 100
We are required to find P(C/X), the probability that the item selected is
produced by machine C given that the item is defective. By Bayes theorem,
we find that
P( X / C) P(C)
P(C / X)
P( A ) P( X / A ) P(B) P( X / B) P(C) P( X / C)
(0.04 ) (0.10 )
(0.60 ) (0.02) (0.30 ) (0.03 ) (0.10 ) (0.04 )
0.16
SAQ 7: There are 3 true coins and 1 false coin with head on both sides .A
coin is chosen at random and tossed 4 times. If Head occurs all the 4
times. If head occurs at all the 4 times, what is the probability that the false
coin has chosen and used?
1.8 Summary
In this unit, we studied the concept of sample space, different types of
events, Probability, conditional probability and theorems based on it. Also
plenty of examples are solved in the unit for easy understanding of the
concept.
7. Three bolts and three nuts are put in a box. If two items are chosen at
random, find the probability that one is a bolt and one a nut,
8. A box contains 20 fuses of which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are chosen
together at random, what is the probability that both the fuses are
defective.
9. A class consists of 6 girls and 10 boys. If a committee of 3 is chosen at
random from the class, find the probability that
i) 3 boys are selected
ii) Exactly 2 boys are selected
iii) Atleast one boy is selected
iv) Exactly 2 girls are selected
10. A husband and wife appear for 2 vacancies of a post. The probability of
husbands selection is 1 and that of wifes selection is 1 . What is
7 5
the probability that
i) Both of these will be selected ?
ii) Only one of these selected ?
iii) Neither is selected?
1.10 Answers
Self Assessment Questions
1. 0.86
1
2.
12
1
3.
12
1
4.
8
5. 0.72
2 1
6. ,
9 2
16
7.
19
Terminal Questions
2
1.
3
2
2.
11
5
3.
12
8
4.
9
2
5.
3
1
6.
7
3
7.
5
1
8.
19
3 27 27 15
9. , , ,
14 56 28 56
1 2 24
10. , ,
35 7 35