INDO-PAKISTAN RELATIONS UNDER THE RAJIV-BENAZIR LEADERSHIP

Author(s): B. M. JAIN
Source: Indian Journal of Asian Affairs, Vol. 1, No. 2 (WINTER (DECEMBER 1988)), pp. 58-64
Published by: Manju Jain
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Gomment

RELATIONS
INDO-PAKISTAN
RAJIV-BENAZIR

UNDER

THE

LEADERSHIP

B. M. JAIN
What would be the futureshape ofIndo-Pakistanrelationswith
the return of democraticorder aftera long spell of militaryregime in
Pakistan? Will there be a fundamentalchange in the attitude and
approaches of Pakistan's rulingleaders due to Benazir'spoliticalpersonality? Or should it be interpretedthata vibrant and new leadership
in Pakistan mightprove a positive factorin forgingbetterrelationship
withIndia ? Whether India and Pakistan will be able to dispelthe
lingeringmutual misperceptions,and melt away historical hostility
persistingbetweenthem. To what an extentRajiv Gandhi and Benazir
Bhuttowill be able to containextra-regionalpowers' interventionist
role
in the subcontinent? These are some of the keyquestionsthatare of
seminal importancein analysing and evaluating relationsbetweenthe
two countries. Perhaps one may proceed fromthe centralpremisethat
leadershipin each country would not be temptedinto riskingeitherthe
country's vital national interestsor one's politicalcareer sheer out of
elan for improvingrelations betweenthe two countries. The testof
theirstatesmanshiplies in how best theycan serve the interests
oftheir
respectivesocieties withoutjeopardising the interestof the otherparty.
There are a large numberof bilateral problems facing theleadersof
India and Pakistan. Chief among them are : the nuclear issue,the
Punjab terrorists,the Siachen glacier, Kashmir,narcoticsand smuggling. On some of thesecontentiousissues, Pakistanileader Mrs. Bhutto
has clearlyreiteratedthatthesewould be solved within the framework
of the Simla agreement. She also expressedoptimismabout the positive

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LEADERSHIP59
INDO-PAKISTAN
RELATIONS
UNDERTHERAJIV-BENAZIR
result fromher meetingwith Rajiv Gandhi during the fourthSAARC
summitheld in Islamabad at the end of December 1988. Rajiv Gandhi
also came back home convincedthat the policies of the PPP "will be
much betterthanthe previouspolicies".
Such an optimismon the part of Indian leader has somejustificationin the rootsof politicalbackgroundof Mrs. Bhutto. Her rise to
political power is a unique phenomenon. Having witnessedthe gruesome drama of her father's exit and execution, and having suffered
and sustained solitaryconfinementas well as political exile fora long
period,she refusedto surrenderbeforethe authoritarianregime of Zia
and make an easy exitforhim. Despite being a youngMuslim lady,
she demonstratedpolitical audacity and indomitable will power to
carryher relentlessstruggle on against the bloodcurdling threats of
leader from
the Zia regime. This is bound to make her a different
predecessors,even includingher father.
Given the background,she representsthe forces of democracy
and modernity
opposed to thoseof militarismand orthofundamentally
intellectual
Her
schooling at Harvard and Oxfordhas helped
doxy.
of democracy,and of rule of law. Soon
values
liberal
her to imbibe
Ms.
Bhuttoreiteratedthatshe would endeaafter assuming the office,
roots of democracy in Pakistan. Simultavour her best to strengthen
the
forces
countrymenagainstanti-democratic
neously she cautioned
which are bent upon reversingthe process of democracy.1 In her
would be to tackle the problems
speech she emphasisedthather priority
of poverty,economicstagnation,and spur the developmental tasks to
ensure social and economic justice. This, she emphasized,required
conditionsof peace and stabilityat home and conflict-free
security
at regionaland global levels.
environment
In her firstaddress to the nation on radio and television,
Benazir vehementlyattacked Zia's "narrow-based foreign policy",
whichshe added, had "created an unnecessaryenvironmentof security
threatforthe country".2 She underlined the necessityfor makinga
realistic assessment of the situation, including Pakistan's Afghan
4
policy. On Pakistan'sforeignrelations,she 'hoped for strongerlinks
with the United States, better relations with Soviet Union once its
pulloutfromAfghanistanwas completed, maintenance of traditional
withthe Muslim countries,
ties withChina, consolidationof friendship
and understandingwithIndia".3

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60

OF ASIANAFFAIRS
INDIANJOURNAL

It is no secret that Mrs. Bhuttowill continueto strengthen

Pakistan's ties with America and promote its traditionalfriendship
with China. There are inherentcompulsionsforcontinuingthe Zia
policieswithregardto Washingtonand Beijing. Infact,US geopolitical
and strategicinterestsin the region synchronizewith Mrs. Bhutto's
imperative need for her own politicalsurvival to a great extent. She
to pursue an independentpolicy. The <rold
mightfindit most difficult
hawkish" Sahebzada Yaqub Khan, her foreignminister,is knownfor
anti-Indian and pro-Americanstance. Besides, the militaryestablishment would stronglyresistthe measures of Mrs. Bhutto whichmight
jeopardise theirvestedinterestsinvolvedin theirpro-Americapolicies.
So the time forher is verytryingand hard. She may not seek direct
blessings fromAmerica, but she cannotdo withoutitsactive succour
both in militaryand economicterms.Moreover,Americawillnotpermit
weakening of "global web of alliance and security ties". The US
Administration
has clearlystated that"the systemof collectivesecurity
the US has built up mustnot be allowed to weaken".4
If she wantsto, as she does, remove deep-seatedhostilitywith
India, she will have to minimize the role of Military in the decisionmaking process. Because over the yearsthe militaryrulingeliteshave
projectedIndia as theirarch-enemynumberone.
The processof normalisationof relationsbetween India and
Pakistanhas begun withthesigningof threeagreementsbetweenthetwo
governments. The firstagreement calls upon the two partiesnot to
attackeach other's nuclear installations. It also providesforexchange
of locational data on nuclear facilities that include nuclear power
and research reactors, fuel fabrication, uranium enrichmentand
reprocessingfacilities. The firstclause of article one of the agreement
binds the two nations to refrain themselves from "undertaking,
encouraging or participatingdirectlyor indirectly,any actionaimed
at causing the destructionof, or damage to, any nuclear installation
or facilityin the other country".5 The second agreementis related
and developingrelation
to culturalcooperationthat aims at '-promoting
in the realms of art, culture,archeology,education, mass media and
sports". The third agreementis related to the avoidance of double
taxationon income accruingfrominternationalair transport.
These agreementshave ofcoursesetin motion theprocess of
betweenthe twocountries.PrimeMinisterRajiv Gandhi
rapprochement

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INDO-PAKISTAN
RELATIONS
UNDERTHERAJIV-BENAZIR
LEADERSHIP61
has described themas a "break through"in the bilateralrelationshipof
India and Pakistan. PrimeMinister BenazirBhutto has also expressed
optimismthat the agreementswillcontributeto creating ''momentum
forpeace" and friendshipbetweenthe two countries. Undoubtedly
theseare vitallyimportantconfidence-building
measures towardsbetter
mutualunderstanding. Both the leaders have expressed their willingness to make a new beginning in the relations of New Delhi and
Islamabad in the interestsand welfareof theirpeople as well as for
peace, tranquillityand stability in the subcontinent. Benazir Bhutto
reiteratedthatsince both the governmentsin India and Pakistanare
democraticallyelected, they have "legitimacy" to enter into political
dialogue to sortout bilateral problems. It is truethat she has good
opportunityto respond favourablyto India's friendlygesturesand
improve relationswith it. This opportunityshould not be missedby
both the leaders. Moreover, internationalclimate is also propitious
forsuch a beginning.
What is firstimportantfor Mrs. Bhuttois to consolidateher
politicalbase forher political survival. Unless thisis done, she will be
unable to give concreteshape to her innovativeideas and approaches.
The foremostchallengeshe faces,is from Zia's loyalistswho are well
entrenchedin the militarycomplex. They will not be easilypreparedto
give up their privilegesnor would like to lose control over decisionmakingprocess. As it clearly reflectedfrom Benazir Bhutto's own
statementthatshe has yetno access to the secretdocumentson nuclear
programmesof the country. Whatelsecan be most shocking!
The militaryin Pakistanseems to be in a comfortableposition.
On defence matters, the generals seem to outsmarttheir political
bosses. Perhapswithoutconsultingthem, top militarybrass have been
openly talkingof "security linkages" with the new politicalactors.6
Whereasthisis the privilegeof politicalleaders in a democraticsystem.
American Pressures
Indo-Pakistanrelationswill continuetobe dominatedby the US
consistent
militarisation
of Pakistan. It is wrongto assume that under
BenazirBhutto'sleadership,theremightbe a shiftin Pakistan'smilitary
and strategicrelationshipwithAmerica. Similarlyit is futileto expect
thatthe US administrationmight alter its policyof arming Pakistan
even if there is a complete withdrawalof the Soviet troops from

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62

OF ASIANAFFAIRS
INDIANJOURNAL

Afghanistanor return of the Afghan refugees to their homelandor

complete tranquillityon the Iran-Iraq borders. On the contrary,
America is in a mood to bolsterup Pakistan's militarycapabilities.This
is evidentfromthe US recent decision to providePakistan with$ 621
millionaid forthe fiscal year 1990. Pakistanis the third largestrecipient-after Israel and Egypt- ofAmericanaid. WhereasIndia hasbeen
given, for the same fiscal year, bare $ 140.400 million. Out of this,
only40,000 dollars have been allocated forits militaryeducationand
is
training programme. Besides, as reported,the US Administration
These
additional
60
F-16s
to
Pakistan.
also thinkingof providing
developmentsare likelyto disturbthe militarybalance in the subcontinent, and might adversely affect the confidencebuilding measures
initiated so far between India and Pakistan underthe leadershipof
Rajiv Gandhi and Mrs. Bhutto.
China
China is also knownto have a veryclose nuclear and srtategic
withPakistan. These are the old ties thatboth countries
understanding
would like to sustain. There should be no doubt on the part of New
Delhi that China would not riskits friendshipwith India at the costof
or realignPakistan. Even ifthereis a marginalstrategicrearrangment
ment, it is not going to change the strengthand resilienceof Sino-Pak
historicalfriendship. This is the reason that Mrs. Bhutto,in her
maiden speech, underlinedthe necessityof maintaing^traditionalties"
withChina. Rajiv Gandhi's visit to Beijing is ofcourse to be appreciated. 11 is symptomaticof the beginning of positive and friendly
relations between the two countries. Nevertheless,it would be an
egregious blunder on the partof India to misread Sino-Pakistanties,
given the comparativelysalubrious regional/global milieu. China's
renewedattemptsto providesuccour to Pakistan'snuclear weapon programme is a serious message to New Delhi thatthe lattershould not
mistakethatChina has abandoned or is abandoningitsnuclear interests
in the subcontinentconsequent upon their recent endeavours for
normalisationof relationsbetweenIndia and China.
What is criticalfor Pakistanis to redefineher foreignpolicy
prioritiesas well as parameters of national interests. Mrs. Bhutto
to the framework
of the Simla agreementas a point
has been referring
of reference to settledown all bilateral problems. Problems like
Kashmir, Siachen glacier can be resolvedwithinthe Simla framework.

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RELATIONS
INDO-PAKISTAN
UNDERTHERAJIV-BENAZIR
LEADERSHIP63
But this calls for reviving and revitalizingit. Other problemslike
inter-border
need sincere desire on
smugglingand narcotic-trafficking
the partofIndia and Pakistanto curb them. For this,both India and
Pakistanrequireto hold frequentmeetings betweentheirofficials,and
periodicallyassess the progressmade in thisregard.
India's main concerns vis-a-vis Pakistan would be regional
nuclearprogramme,and terrorismin the Punjab. On the latter issue,
Mrs. Bhuttohas givenher conterpartfullassurancesthat Pakistan will
or covert,director indirect-that
be desistingfromany activities-overt
might ercourage terroriststo threaten India's unity and integrity.
Assurancesalone will not do. Pakistanwill have to proveits innocence
by itsacts. Unless thisis done, thereis little hope for sustainingthe
processofnormalisationor creatingactivetempoforimprovingrelations
betweenthe two countries.As regardsnuclearissue, India is sensitveto
Pakistan's nuclear weapon programme. The recent concluding of
agreementon non-attackof each other'snuclear facilitieshas a limited
fromnot to indulge in
scope. For thisagreementis entirelydifferent
nuclear
nuclear
bombs
or
use
of
the
weapons as an
manufacturing
instrumentof policy. What is, therfore,importantis to conclude
anotheragreementbindingthemnot to employ theirrespectivenuclear
offensives
against each other. In the absence of such an agreement,
thereis littlehope forreductionin theirrespectivedefenceexpenditures.
This is perhapsthe central reason that both Rajiv and Benazir have
takenup the identicalpositionsthatin the present circumstancesthey
to effectreductionin the militaryexpenditure.
can ill-afford
Concludingly, Indo-Pakistan relations should be conduted
more cautiously,albeit w'th a greater sense of understandingeach
other's susceptibilities.One need not be overenthusiasticdue to the
inductionof democratic orderin Pakistan. Also one need not be too
aboutthe"atmosphericchanges"auguringwellforbilamuchpessimistic
teralrelationshipof the two countries. In a delicatedomestic situation
in Pakistan, Indian leaders have to be morewarylestBenazir'sposition
in the partyand governmentas well as in the public eyes should deteriorate or get embarrased.New Delhi mustsupport and encourageher
policiesto theextentthatmighttend to servemutual interests.

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64

OF ASIANAFFAIRS
INDIANJOURNAL
NOTES

1. See The Pakistan Times, Dec. 11, 1988.

2. ViewPoint(Lahore), Vol. XIV, No. 16, December 8, 1988,p. 15.
3. Ibid , p. 9.
4. Lanka Guardian, Vol. 11, No. 11, October 1, 1988, p. 9.
5. For details,see The Timesof India,January1, 1989.
6. While addressing the concluding session of the8th International
Seminaron Defence Technologyin Wah Cantt,GeneralAslam
Beg underlined the need for collaboration with different
countriesin defence production"and stressedgreaterneed for
"strong securitylinkages betweenthe participants". He also
pleaded forextendingthe relationship(besides USA, China,
Turkey and Saudi Arabia) withIran and Afghanistan.Similar
tone reflectedin the speech of Air ChiefMarshal Hakimullah.
The Pakistan Times (Lahore), Vol. 6, No. 19, December 15,
1988,p. 2.

Forthcomingissue on India and China

- Editor

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