Dealing with Land Use Change (LUC) emissions is one of the biggest challenges for any bioenergy program, shaping the core of policy decisions. Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) emissions, in particular, are nearly impossible to measure directly, and there is no agreed-upon method to assign quantitative ILUC values. Programmes using #ILUC as fixed estimates have faced criticism for relying on models that often lack precision, consistency, and are highly dependent on assumptions. An alternative approach is to develop risk-based strategies, like Brazil’s RenovaBio policy, which aims to reduce indirect emissions without fixed ILUC estimates.
The recent study under IEA Bioenergy Task 45 (Climate and Sustainability Effects of Bioenergy Within the Broader Bioeconomy) analyzed how RenovaBio tackles this issue with a "conversion-free" rule that prohibits biofuel production on native vegetation cleared after 2018. By using the Brazilian Land Use Model (BLUM) combined with carbon stock data, researchers compared scenarios up to 2030. The results indicate that RenovaBio’s approach could lead to significantly lower emissions—up to 428 Mt CO2e—by limiting expansion into native areas. These reductions are particularly notable in the Cerrado and Amazon regions. This study underscores the potential of risk-based criteria to reduce emissions effectively, while highlighting the importance of policies that protect natural landscapes.
Read more 🔗 https://lnkd.in/dHiTm772