Duncan McFadzean’s Post

We are delighted to publish our sixth Noble & Co Whisky Intelligence Report, in partnership with decision intelligence firm Brainnwave. In the report we review the performance of the fine and rare whisky at auction market. The key highlights are: - Volumes at auction are in decline, down by 11% in Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022 - This is mostly being seen in lower-priced bottles, with volumes of bottles selling for £100-£1,000 down by 11.4% and £1,000 to £10,000 down by 9.4% - Average prices are rising but this is predominantly a mix shift due to the weakness at the lower-priced end of the market - Volume declines worsened through December and January, even accounting for seasonality. Bottles selling between £100 and £200 were down by 20% in December 2023 vs December 2022, and 21% in January 2024 vs January 2023 - Most of the major brands have seen significant brand declines. The Macallan noted a very strong value in the quarter due to the sale of The Macallan Valerio Adami bottle - Our data shows that bottles that are “unsold” at auction are not increasing significantly in number overall. This implies sellers are being more careful in putting bottles to auction in a more fragile market - Overall, it is clear that the macro-economic climate is weighing on the auction market. If 2024 is a year of economic recovery, this may feed through to the auction market. - We now have 905,025 bottle sales in our dataset and over 20 million datapoints The full report can be downloaded for free here https://lnkd.in/e4dj6pjx Our thanks to all of those that partnered and assisted on the creation of this report. Our thanks to The Macallan; Sotheby's; Bonhams; Aste Bolaffi; Speyside Whisky Auctions Limited; Prestige Whisky Auction Ltd; Scotch Whisky Auctions Ltd; MALTDAQ; Volpe & Castello Limited; Just Whisky Auctions; Whisky.Auction; The Whisky Shop (Glenkeir Whiskies Ltd); Thought Collective; Martha Moger #Scotchwhisky #auctions #fineandrare #bottles #analysis

We’re pleased to announce the release of our eighth Noble & Co Whisky Intelligence Report, developed in partnership with Brainnwave. This quarterly update provides a comprehensive analysis of the fine and rare whisky auction market. Our takeaways: - Auction Market Challenges: Total value and volumes fell by 50% over the period versus the same period last year, with declines across all price segments. - Shifting Buyer Behaviour: Bottles auctioned for under £1,000 now account for 51% of total value transacted, up from 43% last year. - Savvy Collectors: Bottles over 50 years old saw a significant increase in the volumes remaining unsold, reflecting collector caution and signs of them holding on until better times return. - Price Drops: Average bottle prices fell 19% year-on-year, with volume declines driving down market values. A large part of this is due to the shift to higher volumes at lower prices. - Market Resilience: Despite the downturn, Glenfarclas and Port Ellen showed positive growth, while The Macallan retained its dominant brand market share, albeit with a 34% decline in absolute value transacted. As we look ahead, we’re closely monitoring the macroeconomic environment to gauge the potential for market recovery. For a full breakdown of these trends, download the report. 🔗https://lnkd.in/eBTmR3ew Our thanks to those that supported the publication of this report: The Macallan Scotch Whisky Auctions Ltd Sotheby's Bonhams Aste Bolaffi MALTDAQ Just Whisky Auctions Speyside Whisky Auctions Limited Prestige Whisky Auction Ltd Whisky.Auction Glenkeir Whiskies Ltd Thought Collective Martha Moger #WhiskyMarket #AuctionTrends #WhiskyIntelligenceReport #WhiskyCollecting #NobleAndCo #Brainnwave #FineAndRareWhisky

Another great iteration of the Whisky Intelligence Report from Duncan McFadzean and Noble & Co. Broader macro issues have been impacting the secondary markets much like any other industry and the numbers are reflected in the latest performance across both volume (-35% vs. LY) and value (-36% vs. LY) of sales with #Speyside seeing the largest volume decline (-10%). That being said, the percentage of unsold bottles remained mostly the same despite these declines and as this report focuses mostly on the main, public auctions and sales data out of the U.K. and so it doesn't speak to the entire market and also can't capture a lot of the shadow market activity (FB Groups, private sales). The market still remains broadly healthy and will continue to reflect what the retail markets are seeing, we have a more conscious consumer - people are purchasing more deliberately and with a keener eye on quality, pricing, and prices. The team at BAXUS is working hard to bring as much transparency and pricing data as possible to the forefront of the drinks industry and the secondary market, in particular, watch this space. Looking forward to being a part of these reports in the future. #Drinksindustry #secondarymarket #whisky

We have published today our seventh Noble & Co Whisky Intelligence Report, in partnership with Brainnwave, offering a comprehensive analysis of the fine and rare whisky auction market, focusing on the performance and trends observed during the first four months of 2024. This period has been notably challenging for the secondary market, reflecting broader economic pressures.   Key Points: - Volume Declines: Auction volumes were significantly down by 30% from January to April 2024 compared to the previous year. - Value Decrease: The total value transacted of bottles selling for over £100 fell by 36% during the same period. - Unsold Bottles: The percentage of bottles unsold at auction increased to 6.9% in Q1 2024 from 6.7% in Q4 2023. - Average Prices: Average prices for bottles were down 12% in January, 14% in February, saw a 21% increase in March, but dropped again by 23% in April. Overall, for the period January to April, the average price per bottle fell by 8% versus the same period a year ago - Segment Analysis: The £100 to £1,000 price bracket accounted for 90.4% of volumes traded, with significant declines observed in higher price brackets, particularly the £1,000 to £10,000 range. By value transacted, the £100 to £1,000 price bracket increased to 45% of total value from 41% a year ago. - Brand Growth: Glenfiddich showed the fastest growth in auction sales value (97%) among larger distilleries, while J. & G. Grant - Glenfarclas had the highest growth in auction sales volume (59%). The full report can be downloaded at https://lnkd.in/eBTmR3ew Conclusion: Our report underscores a period of substantial difficulty for the Scotch whisky auction market, driven by ongoing economic challenges. Despite some positive signs in March, the overall trend shows a marked decline in both volume and value, indicating a hesitant market with cautious collectors and reduced demand. As inflation stabilises and interest rates potentially fall, there is hope for market recovery, but current data does not yet reflect this optimism. Our thanks to those that supported the publication of this report: The Macallan Scotch Whisky Auctions Ltd Sotheby's Bonhams Aste Bolaffi MALTDAQ Just Whisky Auctions Speyside Whisky Auctions Limited Prestige Whisky Auction Ltd Whisky.Auction Glenkeir Whiskies Ltd Thought Collective Martha Moger

2024 Fine & Rare Whisky Market Review: A Year of Challenges The fine and rare whisky auction market has faced significant headwinds in 2024, with macroeconomic pressures, high inflation, and cautious consumer spending reshaping the landscape. Here are the key insights from our latest Noble & Co Whisky Intelligence Report: Market Trends: Volume transacted in our dataset was down by 16% over the twelve months and value transacted was down by 18% over the same period, mirroring struggles seen in other luxury assets. In the period up to the end of September 2024 the data has not shown a slowing rate of decline. Lower-priced bottles (<£1,000) proved relatively more resilient as buyers traded down, while the premium segment (>£10,000) saw sharper declines as sellers held back bottles and buyers exercised caution. However, almost every part of the market declined. We interviewed industry experts Jonny Fowle and Isabel Graham-Yooll for their insights. At a brand level, we saw declines across almost every brand by total value transacted. The most popular brands in the secondary market remain The Macallan, #Springbank and #Bowmore. Regionally, Speyside dominates the market with 59% of total value transacted but experienced a 27% drop in volume. Islay and Campbeltown remain popular but also fell. Read the full report for a deeper dive into these insights, performance by price point and a look at the league tables for brands. https://lnkd.in/e_3ASNh3 Our thanks to Sotheby's Bonhams The Macallan Aste Bolaffi Christie's Scotch Whisky Auctions Ltd Prestige Whisky Auction Ltd Speyside Whisky Auctions Limited Glenkeir Whiskies Ltd Whisky.Auction Thought Collective #WhiskyMarket #FineAndRareWhisky #Secondarymarket #Auctions #MarketTrends

2024 Fine & Rare Whisky Market Review: A Year of Challenges "significant headwinds... macroeconomic pressures... high inflation... cautious consumer spending..." It's not all doom and gloom though, the latest Noble & Co Whisky Intelligence Report also includes an interview with Isabel Graham-Yooll

High-end spirits auctions provide collectors and investors with opportunities to acquire rare and valuable bottles of whisky, cognac, and other premium liquors. Renowned auction houses like Sotheby’s and Christie’s regularly feature such spirits in their sales, often achieving record-breaking prices. For instance, Sotheby’s set a new auction record for any bottle of spirit or wine ever sold when The Macallan 1926, featuring the Valerio Adami label, achieved $2.7 million. However, recent trends indicate a downturn in the rare whisky auction market with the volume of bottles sold globally for over £1,000 decreased by 34%, and their value fell by 40% in the year leading up to October 1, 2024. This decline is attributed to a weakening global economy and high inflation rates, which have dampened demand for high-end spirits. The market for rare whiskies has experienced a significant downturn, with both volume and value of high-end bottles sold at auction decreasing substantially. This shift reflects broader economic challenges and suggests a potential reevaluation of rare whisky as an investment asset. Read Simeon KERR in the Financial Times: https://on.ft.com/4iiUZPD

Curious about the latest trends in the whisky auction market? 🥃 Higher End bottles: Bottles sold for between £10,000 to £100,000 saw sales continue to generally do well, including multiple sales of The Macallan’s Archival Series Folio 1-7. 🥃 Average Prices by Region The average price for bottles varied heavily by region, with Speyside leading the way at £721.37, followed by Lowland at £522.10. 🥃 Reserve Pricing More long term collectors are sticking to reserve prices more, and the number of bottles flipped have reduced in the near term as demand hasn’t been as high as last year. Dive into our latest article to discover what’s shaking things up in the world of whisky right now! https://lnkd.in/eKr96EWh

#WhiskyNews: This month, Sotheby’s Hong Kong set a new record with a hammer price of $256,162 for the Yamazaki 55-year-old, surpassing the previous highest price by nearly $46,000. Whisky Auctioneer also set a new high for the Macallan The Reach 81-year-old, with a 2024 record price of $775 more than the April Sotheby’s sale. Combined, these historic bottles represent 6 of the top 7 auction prices of the year, totaling $1.2 million. Additionally, recent 2024 releases are making waves, with Weller Millennium and Double Eagle Rare 20-year-old fetching impressive sums at auction—$9,000 and $6,250, respectively. For collectors seeking rare bottles, the auction market continues to be the place to find those elusive gems. https://lnkd.in/e-t7pc3H #whiskyadvocate #whiskyauction #whisky

As people are constantly asking about the latest trends, here is some interesting insight into what UK auction houses are seeing in the secondary market for collectible whiskey in this article from Joseph V Micallef. One thing that is not captured is how tired and frustrated private whiskey buyers / sellers / collectors are when it comes to dealing with auctions and auction houses. We hear from the community all the time about how there is real auction fatigue and how all the hidden fees between buyer and seller (up to 40% or more) feel more outdated than ever. At BAXUS we have a 10% seller's fee, no buyer's premium and the price you see is the price you pay. #BAXUS #whiskeymarket #whiskymarket