CR Forex’s Post

PCE inflation rose by 0.2% in the past month. The U.S. labor market in November added 227,000 jobs, recovering from the prior month's decline due to weather and strikes. Additionally, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% because of supply constraints. Total job openings increased to 7.74 million in October, aligning with pre-pandemic levels, indicating a healthy labor market continuing into 2025.

The US labour market continues to deteriorate with initial jobles claims being higher than expectations. Pushing the fed to lean more dovish. As well as the recent monthly core PPI numbers being 0% on a monthly basis compared to expectations of 0.3% which could forcast a declining core cpi going forward

Poor initial jobless claims outweigh surprised CPI for Fed policy decision Initial jobless claims are 22% higher than last year and may last higher in Q4. This is the leading indicator for recesssion that may start now. For CPI, the upsize surprise by 0.1% is nothing new. It is transportation service from cost adjustment rather than strong demand. The car demand is very poor from high interest rate but rising car service cost like insurance is rising from high maintenance cost on new technology in car. This rise is not from demand and high Fed fund rate may not suppress this cist down. Therefore, I think Fed will fight recesssion risk that turns higher in Q4 this year. Labor is likey to be weak in Q4 again. Big cut is on table.

Weekend Rate Sheet Interest rates dropped again this week, continuing a downward trend. Friday’s Jobs Report came in lower than expected, pushing interest rates to their lowest levels since April 2023. While the Jobs Report played a role, the primary driver behind the rate drop was remarks from several Federal Reserve (Fed) members hinting at a potential rate cut in the coming weeks. Now, the only question seems to be whether the Fed will lower rates by 0.25% or 0.50%. #MortgageRates #MortgageBroker #HomeLoan #InterestRates #JohnGreerIsLending

Odds of a September 2024 rate cut jump to 53% after the weaker than expected jobs report, according to @Kalshi. The base case now shows two interest rate cuts in 2024, up from one prior to the report. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell specifically said weakening of the labor market could spur rate cuts. Market implied odds of zero interest rate cuts this year have dropped from 35% to 27%.

US weekly initial jobless claims 215K vs 210K expected ▪️ Prior 201K ( revised to 202K ) ▪️ Four-week moving average 212.50K vs 215.50K prior ▪️ Continuing claims 1,905K vs 1,860K prior Full Report https://lnkd.in/gTDHHqJY 🇱🇷 US January PCE core inflation 2.8% vs 2.8% expected ▪️ Prior month 2.9% ▪️ PCE core MoM 0.4% vs 0.4% expected Full report https://lnkd.in/eunexzP8 🇨🇦 Canada Q4 GDP 0.0% vs 0.2% prior ▪️ Prior 0.2% ▪️ Q4 GDP 0.2% vs -0.1% prior ▪️ GDP Annualized 1.0% vs 0.8% expected Full Report https://lnkd.in/g6_X5-Ap ⚡ Follow the economic events: https://lnkd.in/dvH8jZNa #MTFX #EconomicUpdate #EconomicAnalysis

Economic update: 1. CPl inflation is up for 2 straight months to 3.2% 2. PPI inflation nearly doubled and jumped to 1.6% 3.US GDP is up for 6 straight quarters and rising 3% + this quarter 4. The unemployment rate remains near all time lows 5. The US has reportedly added 4.9 million jobs since 2020 6. Housing prices are rising with higher interest rates This is the strangest "soft landing" of all time

BREAKING: Odds of a September 2024 rate cut jump to 53% after the weaker than expected jobs report. Expect rates cuts once unemployment hits 4.00%. The base case now shows TWO interest rate cuts in 2024, up from ONE prior to the report. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell specifically said weakening of the labor market could spur rate cuts. Market implied odds of zero interest rate cuts this year have dropped from 35% to 27%. The Fed rollercoaster ride continues.

The free-fall in inflation confirmed - again - with the annual increase easing to 4.3% in November, down from 4.9% in October and a peak of 8.4% in December 2022. Inflation is down a stunning 4.1 ppts in just 11 months. And critically, when the December monthly data are released on 31 January, if the month on month rise is 0.3% - which is could be given the drop in petrol prices - annual inflation will be 3.0% - back to the RBA target. The inflation problem is over. Also note job vacancies data - down 18% from the May 2022 peak, pointing to further increases in the unemployment rate in the months ahead. The RBA needs to tread a careful path to avoid a recession and sharply higher unemployment and the way not does this is cutting interest rates - soon. My Two Minute Take #inflation #rba #ratecuts #twominutetake

With inflation in retreat, the job market continues to draw the attention of the Federal Reserve as it recalibrates monetary policy to include interest rate cuts for the first time since 2020. #USBI https://lnkd.in/g8V29BwX