Stephen Koukoulas’ Post

Inflation higher than expected in the Eurozone * Headline inflation at 2.6% in May, up from 2.4% in April and more than the 2.5% expected * Core inflation also surpassed expectations by quickening to 2.9% from 2.7% * Services inflation jumped to 4.1%, as companies in the sector are more exposed to rising labor costs Although the ECB is set to reduce the deposit rate from its current record high of 4% on June 6 — moving before either the Fed or the BoE — the higher inflation rate, combined with much stronger wage growth than expected, is clouding the outlook for further interest rates cuts in 2024.

With inflation cooling considerably, a higher R* due to the transitory inflation rate, wage growth cooling, and an uptick in the unemployment rate, all these factors point to Fed rate cuts sooner rather than later

Economists have revised their US inflation projections lower through mid-2025 and anticipate a slightly higher unemployment rate. According to Bloomberg's latest survey, the core PCE price index is now expected to end the year at 2.6%, down from the previous estimate of 2.7%, while the overall PCE price index is projected to end at 2.4%. The unemployment rate is forecasted to average 4.2% in Q4, up from the previous estimate of 4.1%. This adjustment suggests the Federal Reserve might start lowering interest rates to support the cooling economy. #Economy #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicOutlook

GS: We expect the unemployment rate to end 2024 at 3.8% and fall to 3.6% by end-2026. We expect core PCE inflation to fall to 2.8% yoy by Dec 2024

Job Market on Fire! 🔥 Will Inflation Follow Suit? 👀 Stay tuned for May's CPI data release on June 12th! A US unemployment rate (4%) below the estimated Natural Rate of Unemployment (NROU) of 4.4% is indicative of a tight labor market that can potentially trigger wage pressures leading to increased inflation. 🔸 The upcoming CPI figures for May 2024 are due in 2 days time (June 12th) 🔹 Forecasts expect inflation to remain sticky at 3.4% (same levels as April 2024). ▪ What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments below! #FED #Interestrates #ratecuts #inflation #QT #QE #CPI #quantfinance #monetarypolicy #costofliving #unemployment #chart #investors #macro #geopolitics #macro

Economic update: 1. CPI inflation is up for 2 straight months to 3.2% 2. PPI inflation nearly doubled and jumped to 1.6% 3. US GDP is up for 6 straight quarters and rising 3%+ this quarter 4. The unemployment rate remains near all time lows 5. The US has reportedly added 4.9 million jobs since 2020 6. Housing prices are rising with higher interest rates This is the strangest "soft landing" of all time. (TKL)

📊 This week's Market Pulse: Economic Indicators in Focus August inflation data shows consumer prices rose 2.5% year-over-year, the lowest since February 2021. The CPI increased 0.2% for the month, aligning with expectations. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month, slightly above forecasts. The August jobs report revealed 142,000 new positions, falling short of the expected 161,000. Unemployment dipped to 4.2%, with notable gains in construction and healthcare sectors. As Kareem Abdul-Jabbar said, "The good and the great are only separated by the willingness to sacrifice." In these dynamic markets, adaptability is key. #TPA #TPAToday #MarketPulse #EconomicTrends #InflationUpdate #JobsReport #MarketInsights

Inflation rate an important indicator for the economy. As it plunges under 3% to 2.8 below the SARB target, a interest rate cut possible at its next Committee meeting is eminent. Such a percent point basis rate cut will bring some relief to consumers, and few rands to the pocket of the households. This is even great news for income earners, as we approach the festive season, most poorer households need improved income to make ends meet, from school uniforms, academic tuition fees, to attaining shelter and food for their daily needs. https://lnkd.in/dRVRP89U

The latest inflation numbers have come in at 4%, up from 3.6% in April. This is a bit higher than expected, mainly due to increases in tobacco, rent, and insurance costs. Despite this increase, we predict the RBA will keep rates on hold in August. The economy is showing signs of slowing down with weaker GDP growth, a higher unemployment rate, and slower wage growth. Additionally, there have been big revisions based on measures like electricity, rent, and other subsidies, which are expected to lower inflation in the coming months. Given these factors, it would be hard to justify an interest rate hike at this time. Raising rates could hurt businesses and jobs, given these factors, we do not think there will be a rate hike yet. Stay tuned for more updates! Photo Credits: Decoholic #inflation #rba #semfinancialsolutions #sfs

we need to get used to having high rates for a period of time.