Saimanish Prabhakar’s Post

The latest CPI and jobs report is out... And many financial analysts are projecting rate cuts later this year. Is it too good to be true? In today's video, I discuss these recent reports, how the markets are reacting, and what it all means for us as real estate investors. Click below to watch and subscribe to my channel for future updates: https://lnkd.in/e5RHWJfH

US NFP grows 227k in Nov, unemployment rate rises to 4.2%. The unrounded unemployment rate was 4.2457% vs 4.145% prior. The USD has recouped the NFP initial declines and is now (at the time of writing) at the day’s highs. However, the odds of a December Fed cut have risen to 83% (at the time of writing) from 70% before the data. Next puzzle piece is the CPI report next week before we get the Fed decision on the 18th - this also comes with an updated SEP (summary of economic projections). Chart: BLS #macro #nfp #economy #markets #dollar #rates

This month sees an unusual convergence of events, with an unemployment report followed by a CPI report and a Fed meeting release on the same day. How might this impact rates and fixed income? #Fed #Inflation #Employment #InvestmentStrategy

Market brief - 15th May April employment data showed unemployment rose but wage inflation remains unchanged. The market expects wage inflation to cool in the coming months, but probably not in time for a June rate cut. Rate cut expectations are being refocused on September, which will give more time for inflation to pull back towards the 2% target. Powell has become more hawkish on inflation as the year has progressed, calling for patience from the market when the rate of deflation started to slow and where that looks to have stalled, so more Fed members have joined his calls for patience, where they need to see more data before making any decisions. We have inflation data due out today which is forecast at 3.4% which would be 0.1% closer towards their 2% target. Sterling rallied on the prospect that a rate cut could be delayed, peaking around 1.2595 against the dollar. The dollar index fell to 104.95. GBP kicked off around 1.2510 against USD, 1.1635 against EUR and EURUSD is around 1.0825 on the open. #Finance #FxPlew #news

Markets on a PENDULUM!!! The latest unemployment claims data came out much better than expected. Claims decreased by 17,000 to 233,000 for the week ending August 3rd, significantly lower than the anticipated 240,000. This resilience has momentarily pushed back recession concerns, suggesting the market still has some fight left. One other thing that is helping the market to survive is the lower crude prices. Even after the middle east tensions, crude has not surged. Now, all eyes are on the upcoming CPI report on August 14th, 2024. The insights from this report will be crucial in shaping expectations around potential rate cuts for the remainder of the year. Stay tuned! #unemployment #CPI #recession #interestrates #middleeast #SP500 #equity #jobs

Softer-than-expected CPI data comes after the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in April. This reading came in below the market expectation for an increase of 0.3% and revived optimism about a Fed policy pivot in September. The upbeat employment figures for May, however, caused investors to reassess the US central bank’s policy outlook. After the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls rose 272,000 in May, compared to the market expectation of 185,000, and the annual wage inflation edged higher to 4.1% from 4% in April, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September dropped to 49% from 60% before the release.

Softer-than-expected CPI data comes after the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in April. This reading came in below the market expectation for an increase of 0.3% and revived optimism about a Fed policy pivot in September. The upbeat employment figures for May, however, caused investors to reassess the US central bank’s policy outlook. After the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls rose 272,000 in May, compared to the market expectation of 185,000, and the annual wage inflation edged higher to 4.1% from 4% in April, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September dropped to 49% from 60% before the release.

USD rebounds due to geopolitical fears: • Canada loses 2,200 jobs and US adds 303,000 jobs in March = USD stronger. • The overnight high was 1.3578 rate, and the low was 1.3540 rate. • The market is now seeing fewer interest rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve. • Oil prices climbed to $87.50 per barrel (from $86.56 p/bbl.) = CAD vulnerable. • After the strong US non-farm payrolls report, the market is pricing in 66 bps of cuts this year. • The odds of a June rate cut from the Fed are at 58% and July below 100%. • All eyes are now on the US March Core Inflation rate report next Wednesday April 10/’24. • Risk aversion also supporting USD amid trouble in the Middle East. #usdcad #risk #sentiment #mood #oil #stocks #markets #geopolitics #tensions #jobs #unemploymentrate #federalreserve #monetarypolicy #interestrates #ratehike #cuts #pause #pivot #cpi #inflation TODAY’S RANGE FORECAST FOR USD/CAD:                   1.3550 – 1.3650 USD/CAD 24-HOUR RATE CHART BELOW: 

GS: We expect the unemployment rate to end 2024 at 3.8% and fall to 3.6% by end-2026. We expect core PCE inflation to fall to 2.8% yoy by Dec 2024

PCE data aligns with estimates. All eyes on upcoming jobs reports for potential Fed rate reactions. #PCE #Inflation #EconomicIndicators #FedRate #JobMarket #InitialJoblessClaims #BLSJobsReport #MonetaryPolicy #MortgageRates #EconomicOutlook #FedWatch #FinancialNews #Realestatiekatie