John K. Greer’s Post

We’ve seen better, but we’ve also seen worse when it comes to rates. The jobs report came out last week and appeared to be very strong 💪 and interest rates went up 📈 They will likely revise those numbers come the beginning of November which should help rates out a little bit. Inflation numbers came out showing inflation is still relevant, but we didn’t see a knee-jerk reaction from the market which indicates that jobs seem to be the driving force in interest rates. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet at the beginning of November and December where we are slated to see a quarter percent drop at each of these meetings. We will just have to wait and see how it all plays out. Contact Me: ☎️ (208) 875-5000 - ID ☎️ (925) 785-4200 - CA 📧 [email protected] 📲 www.FindJasonBrown.com #FindJasonBrown #YourMortgageBrokerForLife #PreferredMortgageInc

Weekend Rate Sheet Interest rates remained stable again this week after a sharp decline from late-July through mid-September. While additional rate cuts are expected from the Federal Reserve (Fed) over the next year, they will depend on key economic factors. Next Friday’s Jobs Report will be particularly significant as any signs of a weakening labor market could push the Fed to lower rates at their November meeting. This, of course, will result in lower interest rates. #MortgageRates #MortgageBroker #HomeLoan #InterestRates #JohnGreerIsLending

Remember next December that this is the economy Trump is inheriting!   From the 12/6/24) Bank of America US Economic Weekly: “Holiday consumer guidance: stay bullish”     Weekly overview: Bullish holiday consumer guidance We have been consistently optimistic on the consumer for over two years. So far we have been vindicated. We don't see why that would change this holiday season. Retail spending (particularly auto sales) and discretionary services have had a strong start. The calendar shift to a later Thanksgiving makes apples-to-apples comparisons to 2023 difficult. But we don't think it explains away all the positive data.   Data preview: Limited upside risk to inflation…for now We forecast core CPI inflation decelerated slightly to 0.2% m/m (0.23 unrounded) in November after three consecutive 0.3% m/m prints. As a result, the y/y rate should tick down a tenth to 3.2%. The expected moderation should be due in large part to a decline in airfares following three consecutive robust increases. The details of the report should also suggest that upside risks to inflation remain limited for the time being.   Data review: No signs of a major labor market slowdown October JOLTS job openings increased by a higher than expected 327k. This was the largest monthly increase since August 2023. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers ticked up from 1.08 to 1.11, slightly below pre pandemic levels. These are solid data points that do not point to a major labor market slowdown. However, since these data are for October there is a chance that the hurricane caused some distortions.   And, from The Guardian: U.S. adds 227,000 jobs in November as Fed expected to cut interest rates again https://lnkd.in/gXNM6Jsj

🫣 ICYMI: The Fed is expected to cut rates later this month. How much? The market is pricing in a 25 bps rate cut with speculation that a 50 bps cut is on the table at some point. The pace and timing of future cuts is still largely unknown but as the Fed shifts focus from inflation to unemployment, you can bet there will be a lot of eyes on the jobs report Friday. Here are some dates to keep in mind for September: 9/4: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) 9/6: Employment Situation 👀 9/11: CPI 9/12: PPI 9/27: PCE

BREAKING: Odds of a September 2024 rate cut jump to 53% after the weaker than expected jobs report. Expect rates cuts once unemployment hits 4.00%. The base case now shows TWO interest rate cuts in 2024, up from ONE prior to the report. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell specifically said weakening of the labor market could spur rate cuts. Market implied odds of zero interest rate cuts this year have dropped from 35% to 27%. The Fed rollercoaster ride continues.

The wind-down of carry trades in addition to a slew of other factors including weaker than expected jobs data in the US had triggered a market sell-off. We view that the Fed is increasingly paying more attention to its dual mandate amid the slowing job market on top of inflation progressing towards the Fed’s 2% target, adding to the already heightened market expectation of a -25bps cut in Sep 2024 and three cuts in total by year-end. Unemployment rate is on the rise in the US – see chart below. There’s also market chatter of a higher risk of recession in the US. We still maintain that the Fed will cut by -50bps in 2024 and -100bps in 2025. For our assumptions, read the report by our economists Suhaimi Ilias and Zamros Dzulkifli - https://lnkd.in/dTbZHs_N #MaybankIBGresearch #FOMC

Odds of a September 2024 rate cut jump to 53% after the weaker than expected jobs report. The base case now shows TWO interest rate cuts in 2024, up from ONE prior to the report. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell specifically said weakening of the labor market could spur rate cuts. Market implied odds of zero interest rate cuts this year have dropped from 35% to 27%. The Fed rollercoaster ride continues. Markets have gone from pricing-in 6 rate cuts down to 1 and now back up to 2. Further weakening of the labor market could prompt 2 or more cuts this year. But the question remains, what about rising inflation? https://lnkd.in/d6dAtC8Z

Rate Cuts The Fed can't seem to make up its mind about rate cuts. Early in the year there was talk of rate cuts starting in March, that did not happen, and now a target of June is predicted but many economists and predicters, like myself, think that the a cut is not likely until later in the year. The CPI (consumer price index) is up 3.2% from a year earlier through February. A key factor in price increases is the tight employment market. In Northern Virginia, the unemployment rate is 2.3%. If unemployment remains low, this will continue to put pressure on business to raise prices for products and services. Being an election year there is some apprehension that political pressure could be placed on the Fed to cut rates. Let's hope that the Fed continues to do the right thing by not lowering rates until inflation is under control.

Odds of a September 2024 rate cut jump to 53% after the weaker than expected jobs report, according to @Kalshi. The base case now shows two interest rate cuts in 2024, up from one prior to the report. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell specifically said weakening of the labor market could spur rate cuts. Market implied odds of zero interest rate cuts this year have dropped from 35% to 27%.