Arash Amini’s Post

View profile for Arash Amini, graphic

Growing a new generation of drug molecules.

🔥🔥🔥 TikTok Ban Predictions: A connected US investor group will buy it, at a premium, thinking they're getting a good deal. The Chinese will sell it happily, having already trained their AI models adequately as well as successfully using it to wedge a gap between the US and Israel. The Chinese will sell it happily, but will remove certain nuanced aspects of the algorithm that drives user engagement (understanding what a video is about and suggesting videos you'll like is critical in its growth). The engagement will drop. US buyers will want to recoup their high bid ($100B, I'd guess) and they'll dial down the ability to go viral for free to encourage more ad buying. The fact that a brand new account can go viral is the reason people make so many videos. Less virality, less great content: engagement will drop. To boost falling numbers, possibly against a reverse acquisition stock price, the new owner will push platform revenue and this will cause too many tiktok shop posts, which are perceived as ads of sorts. This will drop engagement. This downward spiral will not be recoverable without great content and virality for all. If the new owners don't do this, they'll have to sell it one day thereafter. If these predictions come true, Meta will most likely buy it for the user base for $10B (my estimate). These are just predictions, let's see if any come true. CC: Chamath Palihapitiya in case this goes viral lol.

Ivan Bagaybagayan

Helping Brands Launch on TikTok Shop | TikTok Shop Insiders Podcast and Agency

7mo

Interesting take! The AI model degradation would be subtle, yet devastating. It'll be fascinating to see how the buyer navigates the virality/monetization balance. 

Like
Reply

To view or add a comment, sign in

Explore topics