Aperture Strategy Ltd’s Post

Aperture's Book of the Month for November 2024 For our penultimate book of 2024 we turn to the political economist Mariana Mazzucato whose concept of ‘mission based’ government has recently been adopted eagerly by the current UK government. ‘Mission Economy’ (Allen Lane, 2021) urges reform of the relationship between government and the private sector. She has a clear political agenda, where government sets ambitious goals around significant societal challenges, and incentivises the private sector to innovate towards their resolution. Our interest, however, is in the underlying theme of a systems approach to market growth. We were looking forward to reading her book as bringing much needed systems perspective to government. Unfortunately, we were disappointed. In principle, setting out a future desired outcome, and then conducting activities to affect relationships in the market is a systems thinking approach. A ‘mission based’ approach by government is dangerous if it moves too quickly from ‘mission’ to action without actively managing the effect that is created along the way. Mazzucato offers little to address this. The example of NASA’s Apollo programme briefs well, but that was a complicated problem set in a largely technological arena, with relatively consistent boundaries. A predominantly social system, with all its complex adaption and the unpredictable emergence of new behaviours, is a very different scale of challenge. ‘Mission Economy’ presumes a benign and unitary operating environment; in contrast, the political arena is fiercely competitive and coercive. Mazzucato’s prescription for a mission-focused government will be compelling to many in advocating a multi-disciplinary approach to the most intractable challenges faced by society. But the detail is dangerous. There is a particular problem if the term ‘mission’ replaces ‘policy’ to imply novelty; using different words doesn’t change the challenge that government has had for decades in constructing and pursuing sustainable and integrated policy. Those demons are buried deeper. There is also the problem of who sets the mission in the first place; it's not just the relationship between the public and private sectors that requires re-definition but that with civil society and the electorate. On the face of it Mazzucato’s premise will be attractive, especially to systems thinkers, but if adopted piecemeal there is potential to hijack the concept to serve purely political intent. That would doing a grave disservice to a sorely needed systems approach. Mission Economy’ is recommended as a perspective to consider, but the message is clear: beware political economists bearing gifts. Were it to be consulted, the systems thinking community offers much less perilous advice. Aperture Strategy Ltd #aperturestrategy #fourframes #strategydesign #sensemaking #navigatingcomplexity #systemsthinking

Season 2024, Q1 of The Men's Book Breakfast ~ The MBB. Group: T326. Book: Why Nations Fail by Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson This past weekend we covered chapters 6,7,8 & 9. My key highlights: 6. Drifting Apart In the middle ages, Venice and Rome were possibly the richest places in the world with the most advanced set of inclusive economic institutions underpinned by nascent political inclusiveness. The rise of Venice and Rome driven by open and inclusive institutions and their eventual fall when the institutions became closed and extractive. 7. Turning Point For sustained economic growth Britain's economic progress shows that we need new technologies, new ways of doing things, and more often they will come from newcomers. Illustrated by the conflict from William Lee's Knitting Machine invention, the Magna Carta, the Glorious Revolution, the Industrial Revolution, Calicoe and Navigation Acts. The combination of all these factors in Britain led to improved and new property rights, improved infrastructure, a changed fiscal regime, greater access to finance, and aggressive protection of traders and manufacturers. The Industrial Revolution started and made its biggest strides in England because of her uniquely inclusive economic institutions. These in turn were built on foundations laid by inclusive political institutions brought about by the Glorious Revolution. 8. Not On Our Turf: Barriers to Development In 1445 in Mainz, Germany, Johannes Gutenberg unveiled an innovation for a printing press. This made books to be printed and more readily available. The technology spread to many areas and opposed in others with corresponding consequences for literacy, education and economic success. The Industrial Revolution created a critical juncture that affected almost every country. Without a centralised state to provide order and enforce rules and property rights, inclusive institutions could not emerge. Absolutism and a lack of or weak political centralisation are two different barriers to spread of industry. 9. Reversing Development Sir Arthur Lewis advanced the thoery that many less developed or underdeveloped economies have a dual structure divided into modern and traditional sectors. Modern sector associated with urban life, modern industry and the use of advanced technologies. Traditional sector is associated with rural life, agriculture, backward institutions and technologies. While the dual economy occurs naturally generally, in some areas it was created to produce a reservoir of cheap labour. World inequality exists because during the 19th and 20th Centuries some nations were able to take advantage of the industrial revolution, technologies and methods of organisations that it brought. While others could were unable to do so for various reasons. Looking forward to further discussions gentlemen Austin Wasonga, Frank Molla, Josiah Muriuki, David Mugambi, ACIM, Mike Arasa Ratemo #BookBreakfast #Nations

I'm thrilled to share some exciting news. After several years of research and writing, my new book, The Presidents and the People: Five Leaders Who Threatened Democracy and the Citizens Who Fought to Defend It, is finally on the brink of publication. The book makes the case that while we currently face a threat to democracy from a candidate who openly pledges to destroy it, we have been here before. In particular, I look at five past presidential threats to democracy--from John Adams, James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, Woodrow Wilson, and Richard Nixon. Although The Presidents and the People is about a very real current danger, it is also a book about hope. Throughout, I suggest that "we the people" form "constitutional constituencies" to recover democracy by enlisting candidates and future presidents to repair the damage done by their predecessors. I was gratified by its starred pre-publication review from Publisher's Weekly, which describes the book as "an invaluable breakdown of present-day concerns in an illuminating historical context." Jan-Werner Müller, Professor of Social Sciences and Politics at Princeton University and the author of On Populism, further affirms its importance: "Rarely can a book be called indispensable, but here the term applies. It is crucial to remind citizens why they should not lose hope, especially at a time when the specter of autocracy grows globally." The book is due for release on July 2nd, but your support in this crucial pre-release phase is immensely important. I'm reaching out to you, my LinkedIn friends, in the hope that you might consider ordering a copy of my book now. I've had a chance to discuss the book with many of you and look forward to more discussions about it. https://lnkd.in/evmzaFX9

As we near the end of 2024, our November newsletter highlights include reconstituting the All-Party Parliamentary Group on the Future of Work, our Autumn Budget analysis, agri-bots, and what an egalitarian future of work might look like. https://lnkd.in/e3aBJtgP

New review: Jennifer Delton on James Traub's _True Believer: Hubert Humphrey’s Quest for a More Just America_. New York: Basic Books, 2024. https://lnkd.in/e9bJsAJ9 "In the past year and a half, there have been five new books on Minnesota Senator Hubert H. Humphrey, all of which seek to rehabilitate the liberal Democrat’s progressive bone-fides. In this era of polarization and Trumpism, there is clearly a market for books about principled politicians who were able to 'reach across the aisle' to pass historic bills that made the US a fairer, more democratic country. Baby boomers are notoriously nostalgic for the moderate, can-do liberalism of the mid-twentieth century and no one practiced that liberalism better than Hubert Humphrey. Consensus builder, cheerful compromiser, and President Lyndon B. Johnson’s hapless vice president, Humphrey believed that government could be a beneficent force for social progress, economic harmony, and racial justice in both the US and the world at large. In countless speeches, Humphrey told voters that they were the government, that strong government was not socialism but democracy in action, that democratically crafted policy, laws, and regulations, when honed through debate and compromise, could make capitalism work for all people, not just the rich and not just whites. A key part of Cold War liberalism, this idea helped build a bipartisan political consensus based on Cold War militarism, labor unions, and highly regulated capitalism, while marginalizing the political extremes...."

Great and damning summary on how this government feel about our sector.

Some thoughts about progress and conservation in politics and a call for talking about progress again, in a chapter I wrote for this volume edited by FEPS Europe and Renner Institute (on pp. 214-230): bit.ly/ProgressiveAmbition bit.ly/ProgressiveAmbition

My forthcoming talk in Paris - you can register to attend via zoom 'The political economy of technocratic economic governance and the conduct of Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility: politics, public policies, and the state' Thursday 16th May 2024 12.30 - 2 pm Sciences Po, Room K.027 - 1 place Saint-Thomas d'Aquin, 75007 Paris & Zoom Registration [ https://lnkd.in/e654FmGB] This paper focuses on the creation in 2010 and subsequent operation of the independent body created to oversee fiscal rectitude in Britain, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). It analyses the politics of economic management of the UK’s uncertain trajectory, and of British capitalism’s restructuring in the 2010s and 2020s in the face of the upheavals of the global financial crisis (GFC), Brexit and COVID. A focus on the intersection between expert economic opinion of the OBR as UK’s fiscal watchdog, and the political economy of British capitalism’s evolution through and after Brexit, animates a framework for analysing the politics of technocratic economic governance. The idea of taking the politics out of fiscal policy and bolstering financial market credibility by farming it out to ‘technocrats’ proved to be a chimera. The technocratic vision of independent fiscal councils falls short because it fails to grasp a core political economy insight: that economic knowledge and narratives are political and social constructs. Economic projections and forecasting always involves judgement, and in the background are assumptions about principles of political economy which have been debated for centuries. Economic concepts – used to gauge growth trajectories and frame and pilot economic policy – are always founded upon contestable normative assumptions. even when advanced by technocratic bodies like the OBR. Speaker Ben Clift, University of Warwick Chair Ulrike Lepont, Sciences Po, CNRS

I am happy to share that the background paper I co-authored with Jorge Martinez-Vazquez and Santiago Lago-Peñas on the effects of intergovernmental grants for the OECD is now available at: https://lnkd.in/diiYmzwu Our policy note provides an overview of the potential side effects that policymakers should consider when designing intergovernmental grants. These side effects range from tax policy and expenditure decisions to fiscal stability, behavioral choices, and political economy (Lago et al. 2024). Our note aims to inform policymakers about recent methodological advances and the critical role of data quality in designing effective policies. Future research should delve deeper into our understanding of incentives, causal mechanisms, and the scale of changes in subnational revenue generation.

A sound recording of my book launch (opening talk and discussant contributions) is now available via the following page: Book title: 'Effective Governance and the Political Economy of Coordination' (Palgrave 2023) https://lnkd.in/eduwH3VM