Walden Siew

The incoming #Trump Administration will bring with it a new regulatory outlook for the #bond market. With several #Biden appointees already targeted for dismissal, the expectation is that the White House will have a clear path to revise many existing or planned financial controls. Among them: The U.S. implementation blueprint for the Bank for International Settlements – BIS' final #Basel3 update. Revisions to the financial frameworks of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are back on the table as well, along with a whirlwind of other possible actions. Get the insider details plus other leading-edge news and authoritative statistics on worldwide securitization activities in this week’s issue of Asset-Backed Alert, Green Street News title. https://lnkd.in/euAbgSZb

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In today’s WSJ China, I write about the parallels between Beijing’s recent economic policy U-turn and the U-turn on zero-Covid. Both point to how Xi’s centralization of power has delayed effective policy response. https://lnkd.in/etQ6w5pb Also we highlight the story by Liyan Qi on China’s most famous red guard. Hope you enjoy reading it! H/T Clarence Leong

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Self-citations exaggerate Chinese research prowess, scholars charge. In this week's Latitudes, a new paper suggests that China’s research preeminence is inflated by a disproptionate tendency among Chinese academics of citing one another’s work. Plus: • A U.S. House committee has voted to restart the China Initiative,  the federal-government investigation of academic and economic ties with China that cast a pall over international research collaborations. • A member of Congress accused Qatar of trying to “buy influence” in American higher education through partnerships with Northwestern University and other instiutions.  Rishi Sunak, the British prime minister, has backed away from a proposal to bar or limit the ability of international students to temporarily work in the U.K. after graduation. #internationaleducation #intled #china #research #highereducation #highered https://lnkd.in/gvydFkxg

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Now that the dust has mostly settled, here's what Oxford Economics sees our economic outlook. Keep your eyes open for new OE forecasts in the coming weeks!

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The failed impeachment motion in South Korea’s National Assembly last Saturday highlights more than a dramatic political spectacle—it reveals critical missteps and deeper strategic miscalculations by both the ruling and opposition parties. From Minjoo’s premature theatrics to the PPP’s resistance rooted in survival instincts, the unfolding events carry significant implications for the future of South Korea’s democracy. In my latest analysis, I unpack: ✅ How Minjoo’s misplaced timing squandered momentum ✅ Why the PPP’s defensive stance could be its undoing ✅ What this means for political strategy and governance going forward It’s a story of high-stakes political chess—and why misreading history might be shaping an uncertain future. https://lnkd.in/gc7pq_tw

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New Policy Roundtable on US Economic Statecraft https://lnkd.in/emzUG3VF   Contents: Introduction by Sarah Kreps, Cornell University. 2 “The Future of Economic Sanctions: From Coercion to Denial” by Daniel W. Drezner, the Fletcher School, Tufts University 5 “The Policy Paradox: Emerging Technology and US Economic Statecraft” by Caileigh Glenn, Duke University 9 “Why Not do More: Imposition and Economic Statecraft” by Mariya Grinberg, MIT.    From the introduction: "In 2022, the Biden Administration enacted two major policies at the intersection of emerging technology and political economy. First, in August 2022, President Joe Biden signed the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) for America Fund, which allocated $52 billion in incentives and investments to re-shore semiconductor chip manufacturing from abroad. The legislative language stated that “in awarding federal financial assistance to covered entities under such additional program, Commerce must give priority to covered entities that support the resiliency of semiconductor supply chains for critical manufacturing industries in the United States.” Second, in October 2022, the Department of Commerce passed a set of export restrictions that banned China from importing semiconductor chips that it might use for artificial intelligence, advanced military technologies, or simply as an engine in the economy. The goal, the Bureau of Industry and Security observed, was to “restrict the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) ability to both purchase and manufacture certain high-end chips used in military applications and build on prior policies, company-specific actions, and less public regulatory, legal, and enforcement actions taken by BIS.” After several decades of increasingly integrated global economy, these policies mark a reversal, raising several questions. Do these policies reflect a conclusion that globalization did not work? If policymakers are walking back globalized trade, what are they seeking to optimize, and will there be costs such as higher prices associated with rethinking theories of comparative advantage? Will these policies lead to the large-scale fragmentation of the global economy in which allies trade with allies and designate adversaries as grounds for trade sanction or even prohibition? Will free trade return, or will it be relegated to the dustbin of history? Why are policymakers focusing on the digital economy—semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, and 5G technologies—as the overwhelming basis of their trade restrictions? Are these policies simply backdoor mechanisms for protectionism that are aimed at favoring domestic industries?...."

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Company executives can’t stop talking about the US election. Anne Cronin and I looked at data from the latest crop of corporate earnings calls and found a sharp spike in mentions of election risk to quarterly profit growth. One CEO called the noise and uncertainty around the polls a "Mad Hatter's tea party." For many captains of industry, the election has joined high interest rates, geopolitics and macroeconomic unease as a new "headwind." That's due in large part to a wait-and-see attitude about potential policy changes among both consumers and companies alike when it comes to big ticket spending. There's also a big distraction factor. As Etsy Inc. CEO Josh Silverman told stock analysts, the nonstop political circus is “an incredibly distracting mind-share event.” Another chief executive noted it's tough to break through as advertising rates are being pushed up by campaign ads flooding airwaves and social media sites. The good news is that it's over now -- at least until 2028 -- and that C-Suite types won't be able to use it anymore as an excuse for missed earnings targets. How much of an impact did the electoral hubbub have on your business? Read all about it here: https://lnkd.in/eCKdmysM #Election2024 #3Q #Headwinds #MadHatterTeaParty

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With U.S. business receding amid geopolitical tensions, finance professionals in China are learning a homegrown card game favored by potential local partners. Check out my latest feature on China Co-produced by Cheng CHENG #china #economy #geopolitics

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BREAKING: @Skydance - RedBirdCap said to be final stages of negotiating purchase of Paramount&Co.though talks remain fluid, sources say. Under terms being discussed, Shari Redstone will retain stake in company through preferred stock. RedBird’s Jeff Shell will play key management role; Jeff Zucker eying return to broadcasting as well by likely running @CBS. Talks remain fluid, but $PARA increasingly concerned that Sony -Apollo deal wouldnt pass regulatory muster. Deal could be finalized in 2 weeks; final terms could value payment to Redstone at $3 billion

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Jerome Powell’s keynote address this Friday at the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Monetary Policy Symposium may lay the groundwork for a September start to lowering interest rates. The upcoming shift is spurred by the deceleration of inflation toward the central bank’s 2% annual target and policymakers’ desire to get ahead of a softening labor market. With a September rate cut all but assured, the debate on Wall Street increasingly is shifting to what the easing cycle will look like thereafter. Importantly, the path of the rate-cut cycle will depend on why the Fed is cutting. Will it lower interest rates to rescue the economy from a recession, or merely normalize rates that have grown too restrictive in a soft landing? In this weekend's Barron's: https://lnkd.in/emDhbVR4

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New review by Zachary Shore of Andrew J. Bacevich's _On Shedding an Obsolete Past: Bidding Farewell to the American Century_. https://lnkd.in/dkEcDV67 "If you ever worry that America is being run by a bumbling mass of venal nincompoops, or fret that American society is slouching toward self-destruction, Andrew Bacevich’s collected essays will provide ample fodder for your fears. _On Shedding an Obsolete Past: Bidding Farewell to the American Century_ is not a work of scholarship, but rather a compilation of learned opinions. Bacevich peppers his pieces with a sprinkle of sarcasm and a dash of venomous invective, pulling no punches, barbs, or jibes as he excoriates the United States’ institutions, most notably its military, media, and political elites. Unfortunately, he has no shortage of material, and not just regarding President Donald Trump, a 'bozo of such monumental proportions as to tax the abilities of our most talented satirists' (129). Bacevich himself might qualify for membership in that club of humorists. When discussing the efforts to impeach the former president, he quips that replacing Trump with Vice President Mike Pence is 'the equivalent of exchanging Groucho for Harpo' (304). But Trump is just the lowest hanging fruit. The author reaches much deeper. Bacevich’s primary concern is with the eight-decade-old paradigm of America as the 'indispensable nation,' a notion he views as dangerously obsolete. As he sees it, a self-reproducing cadre of foreign policy gurus, sometimes called 'the Blob,' has convinced itself that US military dominance and overseas meddling are requirements of a stable world order, one that largely benefits the US. Although this notion does nothing to aid average Americans, it preserves the status of the establishment."

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While there is fear of job displacement due to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), the 2024 Work Trend Index Annual Report from Microsoft and LinkedIn highlights that AI is not replacing jobs but transforming them. The catch, however, is that many people’s next job might be a role that doesn’t yet exist.

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For minority investors who just want to make a point, requisitioning resolutions at an AGM seems far easier than attempting to requisition an EGM. Companies should be required to assist these requisitionists too. Here’s the latest #MarkToMarket column, which ran in today’s edition of #TheBusinessTimes: https://lnkd.in/gar3dhnN

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Second half of our #useconomy Super Bowl Wednesday coverage continues with the #FOMC meeting -- #FederalReserve officials penciled in just one interest-rate cut this year and forecast more cuts for 2025, reinforcing policymakers’ calls to keep borrowing costs high for longer to suppress inflation. Some other key takeaways: -- The median official expects one quarter-point cut in 2024, two fewer than the previous round of quarterly forecasts in March; however, the median forecast for 2025 rises to 4.1% from 3.9%, implying four cuts compared with three projected in March -- FOMC votes unanimously to leave the benchmark rate unchanged in target range of 5.25%-5.5%, a two-decade high, for a seventh straight meeting -- Officials tweak statement language to acknowledge “modest further progress” toward inflation goal in recent months (hello #CPI report from earlier today) -- Median forecast for PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, rises to 2.6% for 2024 while core PCE projection rises 0.2 percentage point to 2.8% -- Officials also lifted forecasts for where they see rates settling over the long term, boosting their median estimate to 2.8% from 2.6% in March -- S&P 500 and Treasuries hold onto gains; traders held in place repricing that came through after the soft CPI data that the Fed will reduce rates twice this year, with the first likely move in November Read our full story here for Bloomberg News:

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✖️ Howard Lutnick, Chairman and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for Commerce Secretary, is reportedly in discussions with Tether to launch a $2 billion project to lend US dollars to clients using Bitcoin as collateral, according to Bloomberg. While no official confirmation has been made, the program is anticipated to eventually scale to tens of billions ▶️ “Tether Investments is looking to use part of the profits generated in the past years for different opportunities,” Tether stated in an emailed response to Reuters, neither confirming nor denying the possibility of the Bitcoin lending project ▶️ A separate report by The Wall Street Journal revealed that Cantor Fitzgerald acquired a 5% ownership stake in Tether over the past year, valued at $600 million ✖️ In addition to the investment, Cantor and Tether are already collaborating on business activities. Tether reportedly holds billions of dollars worth of US Treasuries with Cantor, which backs USDT and generates tens of millions of dollars annually for the financial services firm ✖️ Lutnick’s association with Tether brings the incoming Trump administration closer to the cryptocurrency industry. Trump has already announced his intention to nominate Lutnick, a prominent figure in crypto, to head the Commerce Department, with "additional direct responsibility" for the U.S. Trade Representative’s office. Lutnick is also serving as co-chair of Trump’s transition team ✖️ Tether is widely known for its USD-pegged stablecoin, USDT, which ranks as the third-largest cryptocurrency with a market cap exceeding $132.7 billion. However, the company has faced ongoing controversy, including allegations of insufficient reserves to back its stablecoins ✖️ Previously, Tether reached a settlement with US authorities over questionable business practices linked to its sister company, Bitfinex. Currently, the US government is investigating Tether for potential sanctions violations and breaches of anti-money laundering regulations, which the company has denied. ✖️ While Lutnick’s firm is planning to introduce Bitcoin lending, US regulators have cracked down on several crypto lending platforms, labelling their services as unlawful

Large #privateequity firms are weighing the possibility of buying the catalogs of YouTube content creators and securitizing their shares of #advertising revenues – creating an entirely new type of asset-backed bond deal. The #strategy is still early in development but already involves several of the #streaming service’s biggest personalities. Get the exclusive details plus other leading-edge news and authoritative statistics on worldwide securitization activities in this week’s issue of Asset-Backed Alert, a Green Street News title. https://lnkd.in/euAbgSZb

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From the latest Wide Shot newsletter on Trump and Hollywood: Much of the reaction among show business and technology chief executives has been either explicitly supportive or generally hopeful that the new Republican administration will be more business-friendly, particularly when it comes to taxes, regulation, artificial intelligence and M&A (mergers and acquisitions). In other words, get ready for more consolidation. On the one hand, legacy media is a declining business and is therefore primed for reorganization. Pay-TV bundles are going away. The box office has lost about a quarter of its pre-pandemic annual domestic revenue. Streaming is reaching profitability for many companies, but it has taken much disruption and billions of dollars in losses to get there. On the other hand, many media mergers don’t work out well, particularly for employees. Look at AT&T’s troubled and short-lived stewardship of WarnerMedia... #media #hollywood #streaming #mergersandacquisitions

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