Last week saw 2 BIG influencer mktg M&A deals.
Publicis Groupe bought Influential, and Stagwell bought LEADERS.
Today I write about the Influential deal. I est the forward revenue multiple at around 2.5x.
Let's break it down...
---SELLER: Influential---
• IM platform for marketers and influencers
• Founded 2013 by Ryan Detert, Piotr Tomasik 🌊, Daniel Steele
• 300 employees
• 3.5M influencer network
• Access to 90% of influencers w/ 1M+ followers
• AI-powered platform w/ 100B+ datapoints
• 300+ brand clients incl Disney, Hilton, Hulu, McDonalds
---FINANCIALS & CAP TABLE: Influential---
• $150M revenue in 2023
• 50% YoY revenue growth
• $51.5M capital raised between 2014 to 2021
• Investors incl Paradigm Agency, Plug And Play, Ruttenberg, Capital Zed, Tech Coast Angels, WME, ECA Ventures, Regal Funds,
---BUYER: Publicis---
• Diversified agency holding company (#1 by net bookings)
• Founded 1926
• Based in Paris
• In 100+ countries
• 103,000 employees
• €13.1B 2023 net revenue
---FINANCIALS (in €): Publicis---
Stock performance as of 7.29 at 940am ET…
• Share price: €97.72
• Mkt cap: €24.9B
• Up 15.6% YTD
• Up 33.1% YoY
1H 2024 YoY results per public filings (PE 6.30.24)...
• Net revenue up 5.9% to €6.7B, from €6.3B
• Operating margin up 6.1% to €1.2B, from €1.1B
• EBITDA up 4.9% to $1.4B, from $1.3B
• €744M in free cash flow, up 2.6% YoY
• €3.1B in cash
• €3.2B in total debt (incl earnout/buyout)
---DEAL DETAILS---
• $500M purchase price
• Expected to close Aug 2024
• 3.3x 2023 LTM revenue multiple ($500M / $150M)
• If assume 2024 revenue growth slows to 30% from 50%, implies $200M forward revenue and a 2.5x revenue multiple
• Deal structure undisclosed (likely an earnout)
---DEAL VALUE PROP---
Overall, expand Publicis IM client services…
• More creators to target any audience demo, niche
• Better creator-client matching, campaign design via Influential AI + Publicis data businesses, Epsilon
• Offer holistic digital campaigns that blend IM w/ digital, affiliate channels
• Better ROI analysis of IM campaigns for brands, will drive more spend
• Retain client media spend as moves away from linear TV and into social / streaming / other digital
—IM MARKET NOTES—
• $7B in 2023, up 17.4% from 2022
• Up more than 10.6% for all digital ad spend
• Est to be $8.1B in 2024 and $9.3B in 2025
• Social spend to be $186B by 2025, exceeding linear TV spend – IM is fastest growing segment
---POST DEAL OPS---
• Influential will operate standalone
• CEO Ryan Detert will stay on
---WHAT ELSE I FIND INTERESTING---
Following WPP's acquisition of Goat in 2023, and Stagwell buying LEADERS last week, I expect big agency IM M&A to continue ramping...though few scaled companies remain!
I'll write more in my Friday newsletter.
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I'm the founder of RockWater Industries. We do M&A and strategy advisory for media, agencies, and creator economy. My DMs are open.