Jesse Jenkins

Up to date collection of publications and citations

The electric power sector is once again evolving. A variety of distributed energy resources and improving computation, communication, and control technologies create an unprecedented degree of choice for electricity consumers, choices that are poorly guided by electricity rates and other incentives designed for a comparatively simpler era. These technologies also create new tools for regulated utilities, competitive suppliers, and other businesses to employ in the provision of electricity… Show more

The electric power sector is once again evolving. A variety of distributed energy resources and improving computation, communication, and control technologies create an unprecedented degree of choice for electricity consumers, choices that are poorly guided by electricity rates and other incentives designed for a comparatively simpler era. These technologies also create new tools for regulated utilities, competitive suppliers, and other businesses to employ in the provision of electricity services. This paper summarizes the findings of a two-year, multidisciplinary MIT Energy Initiative research effort, the Utility of the Future study, and outlines a framework for proactive electricity regulation, market, and policy reform designed to enable the efficient evolution of the power sector over the next decade and beyond. Recommendations include a comprehensive system of efficient prices and charges for all electricity users, enhanced regulation of distribution utilities, careful reconsideration of industry structure to avoid conflicts of interest, and improvements to electricity markets. Together, this framework is intended to establish a level playing field for the provision and consumption of electricity services and enable the integration of a cost-effective combination of centralized generation, conventional network assets, and emerging distributed resources, whatever that mix may be. Show less

The electric power sector is widely expected to be the linchpin of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. What do we know about potential pathways to decarbonization of the electric power sector? This paper reviews recent literature on the deep decarbonization of the electric power sector, defined here as 80-100% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. To capture insights from recent research, this review encompasses 30 deep decarbonization studies published since 2014 employing… Show more

The electric power sector is widely expected to be the linchpin of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. What do we know about potential pathways to decarbonization of the electric power sector? This paper reviews recent literature on the deep decarbonization of the electric power sector, defined here as 80-100% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. To capture insights from recent research, this review encompasses 30 deep decarbonization studies published since 2014 employing a variety of methods and covering a range of contexts. We find there is a strong consensus in the literature that reaching near zero emissions is much more challenging — and may require a very different mix of resources — than comparatively modest emissions reductions (50-70% or less). Planning and policy measures should therefore focus on long-term objectives (near-zero emissions) in order to avoid costly lock-in of suboptimal resources. In addition, there is strong agreement in the literature that a diversified mix of low-CO2 generation resources offers the best chance of affordably achieving deep decarbonization. While it is theoretically possible to rely primarily (or even entirely) on variable renewable energy resources such as wind and solar, it would be significantly more challenging and costly than pathways that employ a diverse portfolio of resources. In particular, including dispatchable low-carbon resources in the portfolio, such as nuclear energy or fossil energy with carbon capture and storage (CCS), would significantly reduce the cost and technical challenges of deep decarbonization. Show less

The MIT Energy Initiative’s Utility of the Future study presents a framework for proactive regulatory, policy, and market reforms designed to enable the efficient evolution of power systems over the next decade and beyond. The goal is to facilitate the integration of all resources, be they distributed or centralized, that contribute to the efficient provision of electricity services and other public objectives. This framework includes a comprehensive and efficient system of market-determined… Show more

The MIT Energy Initiative’s Utility of the Future study presents a framework for proactive regulatory, policy, and market reforms designed to enable the efficient evolution of power systems over the next decade and beyond. The goal is to facilitate the integration of all resources, be they distributed or centralized, that contribute to the efficient provision of electricity services and other public objectives. This framework includes a comprehensive and efficient system of market-determined prices and regulated charges for electricity services that reflect, as accurately as possible, the marginal or incremental cost of providing these services; improved incentives for distribution utilities that reward cost savings, performance improvements, and long-term innovation; reevaluation of the power sector’s structure to minimize conflicts of interest; and recommendations for the improvement of wholesale electricity markets. This study also offers a set of insights about the roles of distributed energy resources, the value of the services these resources deliver, and the factors most likely to determine the portfolio of cost-effective resources, both centralized and distributed, in different power systems. We consider a diverse set of contexts and regulatory regimes, but focus mainly on North America and Europe.

(Lead author of chapters 5, 6, and 8 and contributor to chapters 1, 2, 4, 9, and executive summary.) Show less

Abstract: Under increasing penetration of distributed resources, regulators and electricity distribution utilities face greater uncertainty regarding the evolution of network uses and efficient system costs. This uncertainty can threaten revenue adequacy and challenges both cost of service/rate of return and incentive/performance-based approaches to the remuneration of distribution utilities. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel methodology to… Show more

Abstract: Under increasing penetration of distributed resources, regulators and electricity distribution utilities face greater uncertainty regarding the evolution of network uses and efficient system costs. This uncertainty can threaten revenue adequacy and challenges both cost of service/rate of return and incentive/performance-based approaches to the remuneration of distribution utilities. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel methodology to establish allowed utility revenues over a multi-year regulatory period. This method combines several “state of the art” regulatory tools designed to overcome information asymmetries, manage uncertainty, and align incentives for utilities to cost-effectively integrate distributed energy resources while taking advantage of opportunities to reduce system costs and improve performance. We use a reference network model to simulate a large-scale urban distribution network,demonstrate the practical application of this regulatory method,and illustrate its performance in the face of both benchmark and forecast errors. Show less

The economic prescription for climate change is clear: price carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions to internalize climate damages. In practice, a variety of political economy constraints prevent the introduction of a carbon price equal to the full social cost of emissions. This paper develops insights about the design of climate policy in the face of binding political constraints, formulated here as limits on the CO2 price itself, on increases in energy prices, and on energy… Show more

The economic prescription for climate change is clear: price carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions to internalize climate damages. In practice, a variety of political economy constraints prevent the introduction of a carbon price equal to the full social cost of emissions. This paper develops insights about the design of climate policy in the face of binding political constraints, formulated here as limits on the CO2 price itself, on increases in energy prices, and on energy consumer and producer surplus loss.

We employ a stylized model of the energy sector to develop intuition about the welfare-maximizing combination of CO2 price, subsidy for clean energy production, and lump-sum transfers to energy consumers or producers under each constraint. We find that the strategic use of subsidies or transfers can compensate for or relieve political constraints and significantly improve the efficiency and environmental efficacy of carbon pricing policies. Show less

New mega-scale clean energy projects must successfully cross the Commercialization Valley of Death and prove their financial viability at scale. This case study documents the Petra Nova Carbon Capture project. A joint-venture between NRG and JX Nippon, the project is the world's largest post-combustion carbon capture retrofit of an existing coal plant and demonstrates what it takes to successfully finance and build a first-at-its-scale advanced energy project.

(Winner, Best Paper: 4th Conference on the Regulation of Infrastructures, Florence School of Regulation, June 12, 2015)

Amidst efforts to decarbonize power systems or expand access to electricity, many developed and developing power sectors have seen the emergence of distributed energy systems (DES). DESs are combinations of distributed energy resources, advanced power electronics, and/or information and communication technologies. DESs can take the form of microgrids, nanogrids… Show more

(Winner, Best Paper: 4th Conference on the Regulation of Infrastructures, Florence School of Regulation, June 12, 2015)

Amidst efforts to decarbonize power systems or expand access to electricity, many developed and developing power sectors have seen the emergence of distributed energy systems (DES). DESs are combinations of distributed energy resources, advanced power electronics, and/or information and communication technologies. DESs can take the form of microgrids, nanogrids, dispersed aggregations of electricity loads and DERs, or a range of other configurations. Integration of these distributed technologies calls for proactive development of a new regulatory framework in both developed and developing power sectors before inadequate regulation becomes a source of inefficiency. In order to help address the regulatory challenges posed by the growing presence of
distributed technologies and create a level playing field on which electricity services can be provided with the most efficient combination of decentralized and centralized resources, this paper proposes: 1) a novel process for establishing the allowed revenues of an electricity distribution utility; 2) a new approach to designing distribution network use-of-system charges (as part of a comprehensive system of prices and regulated charges for all electricity services); and 3) a framework for characterizing the circumstances under which different energy technologies can successfully compete to provide different electricity services. Show less

Summary: Energy intensity improvements, or declines in the amount of energy consumption per unit of economic output, must play a critical role in efforts to decarbonize the global economy. Global decarbonization scenarios depend on a wide range of energy intensity improvement rates. Several scenarios which rely heavily on renewable energy and exclude other technologies from consideration (i.e. nuclear or carbon capture and storage), depend on a dramatic acceleration in energy intensity… Show more

Summary: Energy intensity improvements, or declines in the amount of energy consumption per unit of economic output, must play a critical role in efforts to decarbonize the global economy. Global decarbonization scenarios depend on a wide range of energy intensity improvement rates. Several scenarios which rely heavily on renewable energy and exclude other technologies from consideration (i.e. nuclear or carbon capture and storage), depend on a dramatic acceleration in energy intensity improvement compared to historical rates. Policy making has only limited influence over the mechanisms behind changes in energy intensity. Further research is needed to carefully unpack the mechanisms behind historical rates of change in energy intensity in order to benchmark global decarbonization strategies. Until then, scenarios calling for a step-change acceleration in energy intensity rates should be treated with caution. Show less

Abstract: Dozens of scenarios are published each year outlining paths to a low carbon global energy system. To provide insight into the relative feasibility of these global decarbonization scenarios, we examine 17 scenarios constructed using a diverse range of techniques and introduce a set of empirical benchmarks that can be applied to compare and assess the pace of energy system transformation entailed by each scenario. In particular, we quantify the implied rate of change in energy and… Show more

Abstract: Dozens of scenarios are published each year outlining paths to a low carbon global energy system. To provide insight into the relative feasibility of these global decarbonization scenarios, we examine 17 scenarios constructed using a diverse range of techniques and introduce a set of empirical benchmarks that can be applied to compare and assess the pace of energy system transformation entailed by each scenario. In particular, we quantify the implied rate of change in energy and carbon intensity and low‐carbon technology deployment rates for each scenario and benchmark each against historical experience and industry projections, where available. In addition, we examine how each study addresses the key technical, economic, and societal factors that may constrain the pace of low‐carbon energy transformation. We find that all of the scenarios envision historically unprecedented improvements in energy intensity, while normalized low‐carbon capacity deployment rates are broadly consistent with historical experience. Three scenarios that constrain the available portfolio of low‐carbon options by excluding some technologies (nuclear and carbon capture and storage) a priori are outliers, requiring much faster low‐carbon capacity deployment and energy intensity improvements. Finally, all of the studies present comparatively little detail on strategies to decarbonize the industrial and transportation sectors, and most give superficial treatment to relevant constraints on energy system transformations. To be reliable guides for policymaking, scenarios such as these need to be supplemented by more detailed analyses realistically addressing the key constraints on energy system transformation. Show less

Abstract: Ongoing changes in the delivery of electricity services and the the use and management of electricity distribution systems – including the proliferation of distributed energy resources and smart grid technologies – present new challenges for the economic regulation of electricity distribution utilities. In particular, regulators are likely to face increased uncertainty regarding the evolution of network uses and the efficient cost of network investments and maintenance, as well as an… Show more

Abstract: Ongoing changes in the delivery of electricity services and the the use and management of electricity distribution systems – including the proliferation of distributed energy resources and smart grid technologies – present new challenges for the economic regulation of electricity distribution utilities. In particular, regulators are likely to face increased uncertainty regarding the evolution of network uses and the efficient cost of network investments and maintenance, as well as an increased informational disadvantage vis-à-vis the regulated utility. These challenges are important for both cost of service (or rate of return) regulation and incentive regulation approaches (also known as revenue or price cap regulation, RPI-X, performance-based regulation, or output-based regulation). This paper proposes a novel process for establishing the allowed revenues of an electricity distribution utility and demonstrates its application as a practical solution to the imminent regulatory challenges discussed above. The proposed method is a new combination of three established regulatory tools: an engineering-based reference network model (RNM) for forward-looking benchmarking of efficient network expenditures; an incentive compatible menu of contracts to elicit accurate forecasts from the utility and establish profit-sharing incentives for cost saving efficiency efforts; and ex post automatic adjustment mechanisms, or “delta factors,” to accommodate uncertainty in the evolution of network use and minimize forecast error. Simulation of a realistic, large-scale urban distribution network is used to demonstrate, step-by-step, the practical implementation of this novel regulatory process and illustrate the advantages for the economic regulation of electricity distribution utilities under increasing penetration of distributed energy resources and smart grid technologies. Show less

This white paper outlines four priorities for business, policy, and regulatory innovation to modernize the electricity system in the U.S. Northeast (New York and New England): 1) planning for grid modernization; 2) implementing a new, forward looking, outcomes-based regulatory framework for utilities; 3) establishing efficient and fair rates for electricity delivery and network use by distributed energy resources; and 4) unlocking innovation in the electricity sector.

Abstract: Economists traditionally view a Pigouvian fee on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, either via carbon taxes or emissions caps and permit trading (“cap-and-trade”), as the economically optimal or “first-best” policy to address climate change-related externalities. Yet several political economy factors can severely constrain the implementation of these carbon pricing policies, including opposition of industrial sectors with a concentration of assets that would lose… Show more

Abstract: Economists traditionally view a Pigouvian fee on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, either via carbon taxes or emissions caps and permit trading (“cap-and-trade”), as the economically optimal or “first-best” policy to address climate change-related externalities. Yet several political economy factors can severely constrain the implementation of these carbon pricing policies, including opposition of industrial sectors with a concentration of assets that would lose considerable value under such policies; the collective action nature of climate mitigation efforts; principal agent failures; and a low willingness-to-pay for climate mitigation by citizens. Real-world implementations of carbon pricing policies can thus fall short of the economically optimal outcomes envisioned in theory. Consistent with the general theory of the second-best, the presence of binding political economy constraints opens a significant “opportunity space” for the design of creative climate policy instruments with superior political feasibility, economic efficiency, and environmental efficacy relative to the constrained implementation of carbon pricing policies. This paper presents theoretical political economy frameworks relevant to climate policy design and provides corroborating evidence from the United States context. It concludes with a series of implications for climate policy making and argues for the creative pursuit of a mix of second-best policy instruments. Show less

This thesis proposes a novel regulatory process for establishing the allowed revenues of an electricity distribution utility and demonstrates its application as a practical solution to the imminent regulatory challenges posed by the proliferation of distributed energy resources and smart grid technologies.

This white paper presents the preliminary findings of a qualitative scoping phase of the Utility of the Future study, a multi-year, interdisciplinary project of the MIT Energy Initiative within the COMITES program. This ongoing project seeks to analyze the future of the provision of electricity services, either in a centralized or decentralized manner, exploring alternative business models and transformative technologies under diverse regulatory and markets contexts and within the global… Show more

This white paper presents the preliminary findings of a qualitative scoping phase of the Utility of the Future study, a multi-year, interdisciplinary project of the MIT Energy Initiative within the COMITES program. This ongoing project seeks to analyze the future of the provision of electricity services, either in a centralized or decentralized manner, exploring alternative business models and transformative technologies under diverse regulatory and markets contexts and within the global framework of an increasingly decarbonized power sector. Show less

A review of Michael Levi's book, The Power Surge, published in International Politics Reviews (2013) 1, 117–131. doi:10.1057/ipr.2013.21

Why it's time to rethink energy efficiency's privileged place in climate and energy strategies.

A preview of the findings of the MIT Task Force on Innovation and the Production in the Innovation Economy project. The full findings of the project will be contained in two books to be published by MIT Press in September 2013: "Making in America:
From Innovation to Market" and "Production in the Innovation Economy." I served as a PIE Commission Researcher contributing research and writing to the Task Force's reports. For more, see http://mit.edu/PIE

Millions of solar panels stretch across the country, from the streets of Munich to the fields of Bavaria. #11 in Discover's Top 100 Stories of 2012.

Fracking has finally challenged coal's dominance. #10 in Discover's Top 100 Stories of 2012.

Despite robust growth and recent improvements in price and performance, a boom in US clean energy technology ("clean tech") sectors could now falter as federal clean energy spending declines sharply, according to this policy report, which provides a comprehensive budget analysis of 92 federal programs supporting clean tech sectors from 2009-2014. To both sustain clean energy growth and put the United States' clean tech sectors on an accelerated path to subsidy independence and global… Show more

Despite robust growth and recent improvements in price and performance, a boom in US clean energy technology ("clean tech") sectors could now falter as federal clean energy spending declines sharply, according to this policy report, which provides a comprehensive budget analysis of 92 federal programs supporting clean tech sectors from 2009-2014. To both sustain clean energy growth and put the United States' clean tech sectors on an accelerated path to subsidy independence and global competitiveness, the report counsels a thorough revamping of American clean energy policies to prioritize innovation and cost declines that puts clean tech sectors on an accelerated path to subsidy independence and cost competitiveness with fossil fuels. Show less

This policy report calls for the creation of a Clean Energy Deployment Administration, a flexible, independent government financial entity -- effectively a public bank -- tasked with accelerating advanced energy innovation and commercialization by leveraging private investment to bridge technologies across the "Commercialization Valley of Death."

A policy report that calls for the creation of a National Clean Energy Testbeds Program, which would leverage public lands to create "plug-and-play" demonstration centers to test, evaluate, and accelerate the commercialization of advanced energy technologies.

"Bridging the Clean Energy Valleys of Death" documents the challenges facing American energy entrepreneurs seeking to commercialize advanced energy technologies to enhance US energy, economic, and environmental security. The policy report outlines the innovative public policy solutions needed to support private sector innovation and overcome the "valleys of death" that trap too many promising advanced energy ventures.

An oftentimes myopic focus on the budget deficit has obscured the fact that America actually faces three deficits--the budget deficit, the trade deficit, and the investment deficit--that, if left unchecked, could total over $41 trillion in the next 10 years. Reducing all three deficits, not just the budget deficit, is critical to future economic prosperity. This report details the three deficits and presents a pragmatic proposal to establish federal budget priorities that address all three… Show more

An oftentimes myopic focus on the budget deficit has obscured the fact that America actually faces three deficits--the budget deficit, the trade deficit, and the investment deficit--that, if left unchecked, could total over $41 trillion in the next 10 years. Reducing all three deficits, not just the budget deficit, is critical to future economic prosperity. This report details the three deficits and presents a pragmatic proposal to establish federal budget priorities that address all three challenges. The only way to reduce the three deficits, the report argues, is to increase productive public investments in innovation, productivity, and competitiveness, while making targeted cuts to areas of consumptive government spending. Show less

"Climate Pragmatism," a policy report released by the Hartwell group, details an innovative strategy to restart global climate efforts after the collapse of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process. This pragmatic strategy centers on efforts to (1) accelerate energy innovation, (2) build resilience to extreme weather, and (3) pursue no regrets pollution reduction measures -- three efforts that each have their own diverse justifications independent of their… Show more

"Climate Pragmatism," a policy report released by the Hartwell group, details an innovative strategy to restart global climate efforts after the collapse of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process. This pragmatic strategy centers on efforts to (1) accelerate energy innovation, (2) build resilience to extreme weather, and (3) pursue no regrets pollution reduction measures -- three efforts that each have their own diverse justifications independent of their benefits for climate mitigation and adaptation. Show less

Rethinking energy efficiency and the impact of the rebound effect, with a particular focus on implications for developing economies.

A comprehensive review of the expert literature and evidence for "rebound effects" -- various economic and behavioral mechanisms by which below-cost energy efficiency measures drive a rebound in energy consumption, which can erode much and in some cases all of the expected energy savings.

From hybrid crops to blockbuster drugs, nuclear power to wind power, and microchips to the Internet, this report compiles a series of Case Studies in American Innovation that detail the key partnership between public and private sectors that lies at the heart of more than two centuries of successful American innovation.

A policy report authored by an ideologically diverse group of scholars from the American Enterprise Institute, Brookings Institution, and the Breakthrough Institute, "Post-Partisan Power," calls for revamping America's energy innovation system with the aim of making clean energy cheap.

This policy brief released provides the first independent analysis of how the proposed Kerry-Lieberman American Power Act would impact U.S. competitiveness in the global clean energy industry, benchmarking its provisions against key policy components for technological innovation and industrial development in the low-carbon power and transportation sectors.

In response to numerous reports documenting a sharp decline in U.S. clean energy competitiveness, experts at three leading U.S. think tanks published this policy report calling on Congress to strengthen U.S. innovation and competitiveness policies in this key industry through the reauthorization of the America COMPETES Act.

"Rising Tigers, Sleeping Giant" was the first report to comprehensively benchmark the competitive positions of the United States and key Asian challengers -- China, Japan and South Korea -- in the global clean energy race. The report examines the competitive position of each nation in core clean energy technologies, including solar, wind, and nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, advanced vehicles and batteries, and high-speed rail, as well as the government strategies each nation hopes… Show more

"Rising Tigers, Sleeping Giant" was the first report to comprehensively benchmark the competitive positions of the United States and key Asian challengers -- China, Japan and South Korea -- in the global clean energy race. The report examines the competitive position of each nation in core clean energy technologies, including solar, wind, and nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, advanced vehicles and batteries, and high-speed rail, as well as the government strategies each nation hopes will strengthen its position in the global clean technology sector. The report also offers recommendations for U.S. federal policymakers for regaining U.S. competitiveness. Show less

This policy memo calls for a national commitment to energy innovation that includes direct support for the research and development of new and existing clean technologies and creates a structure for energy research, modeled on the National Institutes of Health, capable of coordinating large scale R&D efforts.

This thesis employs a well-to-wheels analysis to explore the performance of various alternative transportation fuels and vehicle systems to reduce consumption of oil and other fossil fuels as well as emissions of greenhouse gases and several harmful pollutants.