George Pastrana

UNFI just reported a surprisingly good Q3. Everyone in our industry should be celebrating. Their earnings call outlined how their larger Natural/Organic/Specialty accounts (WFM/TFM/GFH) are performing well. It’s a good thing, that these accounts are continuing to perform well and showing consumer resilience against persistently high pricing. This opens more innovation into more doors, and allows for the transfer of market share from Big CPG to emerging brands. It’s also a good thing their simplified fee structure (SSA) is paying off and producing more sustainable EBITDA rates for them because the stability of their supply chain network is important for retailers. There’s a nascent cottage industry built around helping small brands navigate UNFI’s “deduction” process. It’s important to understand that this 7% “Inside Income” forms the basis of their core profitability model. Nobody is going to “outsmart” or “outhustle” that 7% model long-term. Every brand signs the Policies and Procedures document and the details are all in the minutiae there. It’s important to understand that UNFI does not make its profits selling product…they earn more than 100% of their EBITDA by BUYING product. Their fees aren’t “predatory” they are just optimized for mature, larger brands who make up more than 80% of their sales. If you want a simplified no deduction model, and you don’t want to have to patchwork together 5-10 smaller distributors to reach national scale, you should work with us instead. We only make money when we sell product and we only work with emerging, growth brands. ALL of our fees are posted on our website, and we explain them to every brand that onboards with us in a 30 minute call. We can onboard you by the end of the day today if you want. Otherwise, UNFI is a very competent incumbent, and they are here to stay. Pod Foods #innovation #unfi #grocery

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Interesting take on the battle for consumers during months like Sober October and Dry January from Stephanie Cain 👇 Her commentary below with link in comments 🍻🥂🍹 The wine industry has launched an assault on #SoberOctober and non-alcoholic beverages as if the sole existence of the booze-less category is to put a hit against wine. With its new campaign, Come Over October, wine folks are declaring you should grab a glass instead of going sober, because wine brings people together. Instead, #wine should really be looking at their core messaging because that's why wine is declining. At the #ComeOverOctober kick-off party, I had a conversation with a salesperson of a wine distributor. He attempted to be ok with the evolution of wine by explaining that ready-to-drink, single-serve wine brand, BeatBox, marketed to the 21 to 25-year-old set, was crushing the market. He was all for it. While the brand has wacky flavors like blueberry lemonade wine, he felt that every wine consumer “starts somewhere.” It was promising to him because he said they would “continue their wine journey” and start “drinking real wine.” So many problems here but here is the big one: They don’t often continue the wine journey. News flash, wine people! Consumers don’t have time. We don’t desire it. We want to build connections, not spend the evening only discussing what we want to drink. We have jobs and travel and bills to pay and kids and dogs and aging parents and hell, we just want to buy a house. We have no job security. We have been hit with recession after recession. Right now, inflation is making our groceries cost some 40% more. You really think we are jumping at the time-consuming task of learning about wine? Get real. We’ll grab a #Martini. And start ranting. Which is exactly what I'm doing in today's The Mad Ones 👇 Link in comments. #health #wellness #marketing #alcohol #alcoholfree

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OK...I don't think any real CPG company would enter a new product category with 4 different brands. But Tilray is not a real CPG company, which is why they are entering the hemp-derived Delta-9 THC beverage category, with 4 different brands. "420 Fizz is a sleek and modern brand built off Tilray’s iconic 420 beverage platform. Enhanced with 5mg HDD9 per can, 420 Fizz is an exciting new seltzer with a refreshing taste. Herb & Bloom, a super-premium mocktail, offers a unique way to experience timeless classics with its harmonious blend of refreshing fruit notes infused with 5mg HDD9 per can. Each drink is crafted for a smooth and balanced experience, resulting in a delicious taste. Welcome to a world blooming with possibilities. Fizzy Jane's is a light and delicious seltzer with 5mg HDD9 per can and three classic flavors Blackberry, Blood Orange and Vanilla. A nostalgic brand created for the curious consumer. Happy Flower is inspired by classic cocktails, with a citrusy Margarita, a juicy Strawberry Daiquiri, and a bubbly and fruity Peach Bellini. Each Happy Flower cocktail contains 5mg HDD9 THC per 12oz. can and provides a new way for consumers to relax and unwind in a format that’s familiar, convenient, and delicious. Tilray will launch Happy Flower in partnership with Emergent Beverage in the Texas and Louisiana markets." That's 4 different brands to properly position and gain listings and generate consumer awareness and trial and refine...it's just too much at once. I spent 25 years in CPG, and ran a number of beverage-related brands like Maxwell House Coffee and Del Monte Fruit Drinks and Bacardi and Grey Goose Spirits and bev-alc RTD's and I cannot recall ever trying to launch 4 brands at the same time, especially into a still nascent and changing product category. It just seems business irresponsible - it might make for good investor fodder, but it's not smart marketing strategy.

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The natural high in sales when you get a win and/or have a great review meeting...is worth ALL of the stress we absorb daily. #sales #cpg #wins #plantbasedmilk #organic #malkorganics

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If you're in the food or ag business.  If that business has any connection to nuts whatsoever. Then you need to join us, July 11, 2:00 Est for the 6 Seeds Intelligence on nut consumption. We'll cover: → Consumer Preferences → New Product Development → Industry Challenges Secure your spot: https://lnkd.in/dzdJMC9A #foodinnovation #futureoffood #fooddevelopment #foodtrends

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I’ve been a part of hundreds of NPD and innovation sprints throughout my career...and it seems to never fail that a CPG industry colleague asks me about my personal flavor preference. If they knew my favorite childhood pop growing up was Squirt or that I probably ate my weight in orange and lemon Starburst...it would be a silly question to ask! Even as an adult kid…my go-to powdered supplements, hydration beverages, or energy drinks usually center around citrus flavors. I’m mentioning all this because you’d think, a citrus lover like me, that I would be acutely aware of Matt McLean and his company Uncle Matt's Organic. But with the decadelong massive proliferation of products/brands across the different functional CPG categories that I deeply analyze…it unfortunately creates blind spots. Though that’s the great thing about these conversational content pieces… I get to find those fascinating individuals that are indirectly related (but pivotal) to my core functional CPG categorical focuses. And I think you’re going to love hearing Matt’s inspiring entrepreneurial story that spans a quarter-century… - family farm side hustle that grows into a national CPG brand - gets acquired by Dean Foods - buys Uncle Matt’s Organic back several years later during the Dean Foods bankruptcy Moreover, Matt explains how he "leads from the front" to push the citrus industry forward...whether that's: - helping solve the citrus greening disease challenge - organic and regenerative agriculture practices - innovation product in a "health and wellness consumer era" But these are just some of the interesting topics we chatted about in this episode... #strategy #trends #markets #fmcg #cpg #beverages #juice #organic #agriculture #leadership #sustainability #sportsnutrition #supplements #wellness #nutrition #innovation #marketing #branding #productdevelopment #retailing #merchandising #retail #grocery #business #businessintelligence #entrepreneurship https://lnkd.in/gFGvzGeq

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“Growing a CPG company, especially in the food and beverage space, ‘is astronomically harder today,’. ” Paul Voge you said it, man. So many truth bombs dropped in this article about the challenges and difficulties growing and scaling a CPG brand in today’s world. The cruel reality is that it takes a whole lot of money or a whole lot of time (and most times both) along with a fair amount of luck to have a chance at making it. If you dont have a ton of money then you better have a ton of time, some good fortune, and a product that can withstand many changes of the seasons (and "trends"). For most emerging brands today its all about survival and just finding a way.  There are lots of traps out there– lots of shiny objects– lots of vanity metrics hoping to be noticed and cared about–but at the end of the day sometimes its just about living to see another one. Here’s to all you day-to-dayers and week-to-weekers out there that are all just finding a way. Keep finding it.

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This may be an unpopular opinion, but there are compelling reasons for a bullish attitude on the beverage alcohol industry. Amidst the doom and gloom headlines, recent declines, increase in non-alcoholic alternatives, and sober curious trends, I would argue when zooming out, the beverage alcohol industry demonstrates strong resilience and adaptability, supporting a positive long-term outlook. Some reasons why... 1. TRENDS: If you drew a trend line (basic auto regressive) from 1997 through 2019, the American consumers should drinking roughly 2.42 gallons per capita in the US. 2022 finished with 2.56. So even with 4-5% declines in consumption, we would still be on a positive long term consumption trend. 2. LESS DRINKING: Yes, consumers are drinking less than previous generations, but that’s a good thing. The record-high consumption rates of the 1970s and 1980s were extreme and likely never to be seen again. 3. GLP-1 (Overrated Risk): Without great food, good wine and spirits, and sharing with the people you love…I see these drugs further exasperating depression and bad eating habits down the road. 4. ASSORTMENTS (Underrated Risk): The potential over hype of Alt-Alc beverages poses a more significant risk than GLP-1 drugs. The Pygmalion effect in economics suggests that if consumers believe a recession is happening, they behave as if its happening, and therefore trigger a recession. If the same happens with the idea that there is a majority shift away from alcohol and to Non-Alc & Alt-Alc products, it could shift resources away from traditional alcoholic beverages, such as shelf space, promotions and floor space, exacerbating their decline. 5. NON ALCOHOLIC or ALT-ALC (Overrated Risk): Once I factor in costs, calories, sugars, flavors and availability. Its really hard to beat a regular Carbonated Soft Drink (CSD) and pay the premium for Non-Alc cocktails and spirits. At a certain point, I am just going to pay for the real thing. Exception: some really great tasting & price accessible non-alc beers. - $.10 per oz La Croix - $.12 per oz Celsius (caffeine) - $.13 per oz Sanzo Lychee - $.17 per oz Athletic Brewing - $.20 per oz Olipop Vintage Cola (Prebiotic) 6. ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS (Underrated Risk): Happier, healthier and wealthier is a majority target for younger generations. But for young adults who face fewer job opportunities, lower incomes, higher student debt, more expensive housing, reducing disposable income. It becomes really hard to justify eating out, drinking or splurging. Though this trend also has a positive undertone, premiumization. Less drinking frequency but purchases more premium products, or higher quality, more interest in cocktail experimentation and flavor exploration.

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📰 America’s economy is on track for a historic "soft landing," balancing inflation without recession—an achievement only matched in the 1990s! But here's the twist: consumer sentiment and actual spending behaviors are diverging. While sentiment research suggests caution, spending in retail and food service remains strong! 📈💳 This disconnect might just be the key to understanding our current economic resilience. Follow Culinary Tides, Inc. for more insights. 🌟 🛒 #SoftLanding #EconomicTrends #USEconomy #ConsumerSpending #CulinaryTides #FoodIndustry

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Be careful what you wish for... "Tilray lays off 10 Barrel Brewing’s entire Innovation Brewing Team lead by Tonya Cornett Remember when 10 Barrel Brewing celebrated their sale from Anheuser-Busch/InBev to Cannabis and beverage behemoth Tilray? That was only a year ago this month, and there was a note of optimism in the air for their return to “craft beer” status based on the definitions laid out by the Brewers Association. 9 years of operating under the oversight of the world’s largest beer maker had its ups and downs, but when the 10 Barrel team gathered on the patio to roll out a celebratory banner and spray cans of beer like they just won the Super Bowl, it sure did seem like a joyous occasion. Today things are not so celebratory. According to reports, 10 Barrel Brewing founders and brothers Chris and Jeremy Cox tendered their resignation from the brewery they created, announcing their departure internally last week. What followed was a mass layoff of 10 Barrel Brewing’s entire innovation brewing team on Wednesday, September 4th. This included company wide positions in brewing, admin, and sales, which has been confirmed by multiple sources." (from The New School Beer) I wonder if Irwin will give any of his tens of millions in cash compensation he has taken at Tilray, for delivering billions in losses and a plummeting share price, to support the workers he just put...out of work. Oregon is an employment at will state with no obligation to provide severance upon termination, unless it has specifically been built into an employment contract. So, it feels like a no.

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The US Beer industry landscape is changing fast. AB InBev's North America Normalized EBIT declined by over $1.3 B from 2022 to 2023. The volume market share decline (relative to Molson Coors Beverage Company and Constellation Brands) contributed to that EBIT decline by an amount of $400 Million. It has not helped that overall volumes between these three major players has declined by over 4%. It's a general sign of the headwinds facing the beer category as shopper and consumer preferences shift. For #ABInBev, that overall market decline cost them another $200M. A just less than 4% increase in Net Pricing contributed a +ve $560Million to the Normalized EBIT change, but was insufficient to mitigate the increased inflationary unit costs associated with Cost of Sales and the de-leveraging of other SG&A operating expenses. It will be interesting to track how these components of EBIT will change for 2024, given growth constraints associated with market share gains and price increase ceilings. Looks like some drastic OPEX cuts might be the only short-term remedy for now as AB InBev looks to rebuild brand equity and volume share. Send me a DM or write "send" in the comments section and I will forward you the document that also contains the related MVA operating breakdown for #MolsonCoors and #ConstellationBrands. It's interesting to see how and to what extent Molson Coors and Constellation Brands benefited from AB InBev's headwinds. You will also see why Constellation Brands might be the longer term winner here. #Beerindustry #beercategory #beerdistribution #Heineken #BeverageAlcohol #Asahi #Carlsberg #BostonBeer #beer #beverages #BudLight #MillerLite #CoorsLight #Corona #ModeloEspecial

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Casella Family Brands's [yellowtail] has been one of the top-selling wine brands in the world for what feels like forever. Sure, they’ve got an affordable price point but they didn’t get to where they are via price point alone. They also figured out how to stand out on the shelf and achieve a premium look within the value category. 1) Each varietal is color-coded with a big, bright brand. It’s the first thing you see as soon as you hit the wine section and retailers are encouraged to pick up “the whole set”. 2) Screw-caps are generally associated with cheaper wine. [yellowtail] has gone the extra mile to stand out amongst value brands. The caps have an embossed logo and a top color that matches the varietal. They almost certainly come from a different supplier than where the bottles come from which means that the team has gone the extra mile with color tech to ensure exact color matching. 3) The label dieline has a slightly rough top edge to contrast the straight-edge varietal band, but most likely not so rough that it impacts the efficiency of their massive application line. What's your take?

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Vodka, once celebrated for its neutrality and versatility, has increasingly become a polarizing spirit in recent years. Some view it as a blank canvas for mixology, while others criticize its lack of distinct flavor compared to other spirits like whiskey or gin. What are your thoughts on vodka? Do you appreciate its clean taste and adaptability in cocktails, or do you prefer spirits with more pronounced flavors? Share your perceptions on this evolving category of liquor for our July SIP Survey: https://lnkd.in/gbMsAS2j #marketresearch #sensorymarketing #vodka #vodkamarketing

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The American People Are Hungry for a New Farm Bill By Grant Colvin Executive Director of the Alliance for Fair Sugar Policy   * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *   As lawmakers return to Washington after a month back home with their constituents, they have a golden opportunity to address the top voter priority of lowering food costs by passing a bipartisan farm bill.   Extensive ongoing coverage and polling prove that Americans are frustrated with stubbornly high grocery bills. The fact that both presidential campaigns have placed food prices at the center of their economic policy proposals speaks to the potency of this issue for voters in all corners of the country and across the political spectrum.    How can the sugar program be reformed to lower food costs? In short, our outdated sugar program restricts domestic sugar production and imports, which in turn creates unnecessary ingredient shortages and cost increases for American food manufacturers. Given the prevalence of sugar as an ingredient in many grocery store staples—peanut butter, pasta sauce, bread, yogurt, and so many more—these same outdated policies also weigh down the budgets of families and small businesses.   This bipartisan, problem-solving action by Congressional agriculture leaders is commendable and should be recognized as the most promising momentum for sugar program modernization in decades. Notably, the emerging consensus on this package of reforms is backed by both sugar producers and food manufacturers. With that key support locked in, lawmakers are now positioned to land a defining blow in the country’s fight against high food costs. But they need to pass the farm bill in the weeks ahead.   That’s why food manufacturers and farm groups from across the country have been imploring lawmakers to pass a farm bill that delivers targeted reforms and provides relief for consumers. Manufacturers, small businesses, and families deserve the certainty of a five-year farm bill reauthorization, rather than falling back on yet another short-term extension that falls short on much-needed changes to the sugar program and other key areas.   Days may be running short for the 118th Congress, but there’s still time for lawmakers to bring food price relief to the overwhelming number of Americans yearning for Washington to come together and focus on this issue. To do so, let’s get the farm bill over the finish line.   Grant Colvin is the executive director of the Alliance for Fair Sugar Policy, a large coalition of food companies, trade associations, consumer groups, free market organizations, and many others united in pursuit of a fairer, simpler U.S. sugar program.  

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Millennials make purchasing decisions that reflect their ethical beliefs and budget constraints. Brands can cater to Millennials' ethical and budget preferences by offering functional foods and multi-benefit products. These products not only resonate with the health and wellness values of Millennials but also provide significant additional value, making them highly appealing to this cost-conscious demographic. As Millennials seek products that align with their values without breaking the bank, there’s a unique opportunity for innovation in the functional food sector. Understanding this shift is key to meeting their expectations. Read more about this consumer group here: https://bit.ly/3VCHrDQ FoodNavigator USA Ryan Daily #valueshoppers #consciousconsumers #functionalfoods

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Everyone seems scared of the rise of Private Label. I think customers truly want to support BFY Mission driven brands - but not at a premium price. We have figured out how to be cost conscious by being vertically integrated and now we are using some of those saved $$ for sampling + story telling to gain “good brand karma” PL is here to stay and grow- as a CPG brand you have to figure out how to have a strong brand that is priced in line with PL. #cpg #brandbuilding

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Innovating in the beverage space can be tricky, but salt-based hydration-focused company Cadence is taking a strategic approach. Co-founders Ross Mackay and George Heaton are targeting Cadence at a niche market: the active community and those seeking to enhance their hydration routines to include more sodium. "Working at Daring and thinking about things for my core business, (I realized) there’s hydration drinks on the market, but the ingredient list is long or the sodium is low," Mackay said. "This was founders scratching an itch, and we felt this was an itch worth going after." Read more 🧊▶️ https://ow.ly/kGAK50SyTzo #foodbusiness #startup #beverage #hydration

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