But online sales of Tesla—the most prominent D2C brand—and online used-car dealers like Carvana are making car sales a larger percentage of this category, which is skimming share from parts sellers like Amazon. Amazon’s dominance affects retailers in different ways, depending on product categories.

Walmart and Carvana will mark somewhat stronger sales growth for all three years, and only Walmart has sufficient scale to gain notable ecommerce market share: It will grow by 1 percentage point to reach 9.2% in 2026. In 2025, Walmart will become the only US retailer that’s not Amazon to surpass $100 billion in annual online sales.

Carvana and Bed Bath & Beyond teeter closer to bankruptcy: Both retailers are facing serious money problems as decisions made during the pandemic come back to haunt them.

Despite bankruptcy rumors, Carvana will be the fastest-growing retail ecommerce company in the US both this year and next year, according to our forecast. In second place this year is Chewy, signaling the strength of category-focused retailers.

Those two remaining categories are home improvement (due to established home-improvement retailers) and auto (due to Tesla and Carvana). Among major US retailers, only Walmart is growing its ecommerce sales faster than Amazon at 13.6% compared with Amazon’s 10.5%. Walmart has Amazon outpaced in digital grocery specifically, which could pose an increasing threat to Amazon as the category matures.

Founded in 2015, Root has focused on embedded offerings since finding success the Carvana partnership it launched last year. Forty-one percent of its Q4 2022 new writing was through Carvana, which helped Root almost halve its annual net losses to $298 million. What’s next: The insurtech has teased an upcoming partnership with a digital financial services firm.

Others will fare at least somewhat better in terms of growth compared with 2023, with just eBay and Carvana expected to show modest declines next year. Marketplaces are growing in importance. Amazon’s third-party marketplace has been driving its ecommerce growth and now accounts for nearly two-thirds of its sales.

Carvana, Amazon, and Walmart will see the most growth over the next two years. Carvana and Walmart are the only two companies that will see above average growth in both 2023 and 2024. But pet retailer Chewy will also have a decent showing this year. In 2023, Chewy will be the second fastest growing ecommerce company after Carvana.

While Amazon, Walmart, Apple, and eBay will remain the top three US retail ecommerce companies by sales this year, more category-driven etailers like Carvana and Chewy are moving up the ranks. Carvana has been up and down in recent years, according to our “Top 15 US Ecommerce Companies Forecast” report. In the years prior to the pandemic, Carvana’s sales grew by triple digits.

WB: eBay and Carvana experienced the biggest changes, but Apple and online grocers will see revisions, too, largely because of higher prices. We expect eBay will give back some of its pandemic-gained share of total ecommerce this year. We revised our forecast for eBay from an initial 3.5% sales growth and now expect it will decline -7.6% in 2022.

So yeah, I'll give this award to Carvana because I think whether or not Carvana in particular is going to be able to overcome its ongoing woes, what they have done is proven that there is a market for car buying on the internet. So it might or might not be Carvana, but it does seem like there is going to be a place on this list for a car dealer.

This could impact companies like Zillow and Carvana in terms of spend, Verna noted. This was originally featured in the eMarketer Daily newsletter. For more retail insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.

In terms of sales growth, Walmart sits third (behind Carvana and Chewy), with sales growing 10.9% this year and 11.3% next year to reach $81.75 billion, according to our forecast. 2. Its physical footprint presents massive opportunities for in-store retail media. Walmart will grow its ad revenues by 39.1% this year in the US, faster than Amazon, Etsy, and eBay, according to our forecast.

The bottom line: Last year, D2C brands including Warby Parker, Allbirds, and Carvana struggled as consumers battled inflation and reduced discretionary spending. As these challenges cross into 2023, it’s becoming clear that D2Cs can’t rely on the same old tricks anymore.

Carvana. CB Insights. Ideo. J.D. Power. Leanstack. Majesco. Springer. The Jacobson Group. Ward.

Its partnership with Carvana, the fastest-growing online used car retailer in the US, has brought in 31% of new premium volume in Q2, though it’s likely shelling out a referral fee in return. Root has also recently branched out to renters and homeowners insurance, now available across nine and 13 states, respectively.

Pandemic winners like Carvana and Best Buy will see softer growth. Carvana’s moderation in the second half of 2022 will result from rising interest rates, the increased cost of raw materials, and supply shortages, all of which will drive up vehicle prices.

The remaining two include the used car marketplace Carvana, which occupies a category with very low ecommerce penetration, and Apple, which operates a robust search ads business. That explosion of retail media has reverberated through the US search advertising market.