The Military Is Already Preparing For The Worst-Case Sequester Scenario

Paul Szoldra

2013-01-17T21:38:41Z

us army best photos 2012, cargo plane with soldiers

There's plenty of talk about the "fiscal cliff" -- which was avoided by a last-minute deal last month — but that only delayed a huge Pentagon fear: Sequestration.

What happens if the military is slapped with sequestration -- automatic budget cuts to the tune of about $500 billion over ten years?

The Defense Department is the biggest loser in the latest budget battle, and although Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta is hopeful about reaching an agreement, they still need to plan for the possibility, which left unchecked would hit in March.

"Indeed, we are seeing the formation of what I would call a perfect storm of budget uncertainty," Panetta said on Jan. 10. "With a sequester that could happen on March 1st, a continuing resolution that could simply be extended for the rest of this fiscal year, as opposed to having a defense appropriations bill adopted, and, thirdly, a debt ceiling crisis that could create even further turmoil that could impact on our budget and on our economy."

"And the fact is, looking at all three of those, we have no idea what the hell's going to happen."

The guidance from the Pentagon to all service branches is to give specific recommendations on what they can cut by Feb 1st. Here's the broader view from Panetta on what would happen if Congress does not act to avoid the sequester.

Panetta believes that "this uncertainty, if left unresolved by the Congress, will seriously harm our military readiness."

The cuts, according to Panetta, would mean a reduction in flying hours and pilot training.

Ship training would be reduced, "except for our highest priority units," Panetta said, along with reduced maintenance on the existing fleet.

Military units not deploying to Afghanistan are going to see a lot less training.

us army, soldiers, helicopter — Paratroopers with the 82nd Airborne Division's 1st Brigade Combat Team pull security as their UH-60M Black Hawk helicopter leaves during air assault training at Fort Bragg, N.C., May 31. Black Hawks can typically transport 8-10 fully-loaded infantrymen. U.S. Army / Sgt. Michael J. MacLeod

Future weapons systems R&D will also take a hit. Panetta says the cuts will disrupt "almost every weapon modernization and research program."

Civilian contractors would face serious cutbacks. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments estimates about 108,000 defense civilian employees could lose their jobs in 2013 if sequestration hits.

They've already frozen civilian hiring, delayed certain contracts, and cut back on facilities maintenance.

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Troops deployed overseas will not be affected. "We have an obligation, obviously, to protect the warfighter and protect what we're doing in the war in Afghanistan," Panetta said.

All programs administered by the Department of Veterans Affairs, as well as the military's wounded warrior programs, would also be exempt, according to Cornell University Law School.

You've seen how sequestration would affect the military...

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