Rory Stirling

I don't go in for 'building in public' in general, but every now and then I think it's worth sharing what I'm seeing in the market. The below graph shows the average time to close a deal over time at EmergeOne and you can see that this has been creeping up since last year (adjusted for seasonality) and is currently close to 3 months to close a deal. So what's happening? Well, I was recently at an CFO event where we got a bit of a data driven view into the state of private markets. Some key points that came out: 🏷️ Median post money at Series A has dropped from 80m USD in 21/22 to 65m USD in 2024. This is still up from 40m from circa 2020. ％ Top quartile is significantly over at 107m. 📈 Series B median post money is $137m, top quartile $287m USD, but bottom quartile significantly struggling. 🚀 Deal velocity has slowed but started recovering. 💰 Lots of deals are happening but not priced - bridges abound. So how does this therefore relate to what we're seeing in terms of time to close? Firstly, we are a consultancy providing fractional CFO support to venture backed tech startups typically post Seed and pre Series A so this data reflects what we are generally seeing in the market as well. But the two main issues that are seemingly impacting our numbers are around deal velocity and bridge financing. There are simply fewer deals being done and they are taking longer to close, so the volume of potential clients we can target has dropped significantly. This does, however, mean that the quality of deals we're working on is significantly higher this year. Secondly, as companies struggle to raise priced rounds, they are raising lower amounts of capital on convertibles. This impacts us as CFOs are only truly valuable when there is a significant balance sheet to manage, less capital = less need for CFOs and hence the decision as to when to bring us in gets pushed out. But equally, that insecurity over funds means that founders are much more hesitant to make significant hiring decisions, prioritising hires that can directly influence revenue / traction in the near term. But they also know that they need the support so are often waiting for the 'magic moment' where they hit an inflection point that gives them confidence to pull the trigger. Outside of the deal data, we are also seeing venture indexing towards more R&D heavy businesses (life science, hardware etc.) and these sort of companies are often not commercialising for several years. They have security over spend and regard finance as a future problem. We are seeing a lot of companies approaching Series B without anyone in finance, deferring that decision till they close. But we are also seeing leads come through from a multitude of sources proving there is appetite for strong commercially minded CFOs to support and grow these scaling businesses. So as the market stabilises, I would expect to see these numbers come back. Business wouldn't be any fun if it was all easy, would it?!

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A few reflections on last week's Budget, from me, and a bunch of our fabulous FieldHouse Associates' clients. https://lnkd.in/exrefrpt #tech #innovation #investment #venturecapital #startups #scaleups #regulation #government #PR #publicaffairs #consultancy

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Taking Windward public in London was a significant milestone, but the landscape has shifted dramatically. The startup and VC world is facing a silent recession as severe as 2008, yet it’s flying under the radar. Funding is scarce, and many promising companies are quietly closing their doors. But this isn't just about survival—it's about adapting and thriving. In tough times, resilience is key. The startups that emerge from this storm will be the next Airbnb, Uber, or Microsoft. How are we positioning ourselves to not just survive but lead in this new era? For us - it’s very clear. Leveraging our blue chip customer base, proprietary data and mature tech platform to build #generetiveai first products (stay tuned!) Don’t take anything as trivial . Success requires a combination of so many factors. Every day is day 1! Link to the full piece on Forbes : https://lnkd.in/e-5kENaT #wnwd

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TLDR: EIS should be scrapped as a fund structure but retained for Angel investments by individuals. Alex Chalmers has done all the work which in 10 years I've never got around to doing: why 95% of EIS/VCT funds are bad for our tech ecosystem, rip #startups off, and why as a Founder you should push back against their stupid fees or not take their money. https://lnkd.in/dnq9ZScS

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Taavet Hinrikus and I made the Financial Times Due Diligence email. https://lnkd.in/ez2AuGQx One 'unintended consequence' is that if there is a 45% tax on carry and CGT (raising £40m per year, remember) it for all intents and purposes closes the door on new VCs in the UK. Especially started by teams from non-traditional backgrounds. To meet the GP commit, you need to be already part of the 'wealthy' as you cannot rely on the value you create - nearly half of it will disappear - to fund it. We have both had extremely successful startups which are few and far between. The smaller number of new VCs will therefore more likely increasingly be for people who have inherited the capital or can draw it from their already rich family. Probably not want they have in mind with this policy.

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Highlighting: "The market for a bespoke solution like Holoride may be narrower than its founders once hoped." "No shit, Sherlock." This was a niche of a niche of a niche that I honestly never understood. Imagine starting with the people who are VR enthusiasts, and then reducing by the people who want VR in cars, and then the people who have recent year Audis, and then people in Germany (the USA was added later), and then the people who will buy a $700 semi-enterprise package that comes with access to only a dozen games, but also a $20 a month subscription. This is like 1% of 1% of 1% of 1% of 1% of 1%. The shocking thing is not that they ran out of funding. The shocking thing is that they EVER got any funding. Oh and keep in mind, all that fun stuff about VR being 6DoF, roomscale, body movements, arm movements, hand tracking? All gone. This is semi-3DOF locked in your seat holding a console style knock off bluetooth controller. The VR headset? HTC Vive Flow. The gamepad? 8BitDo Pro 2 Gamepad. The cars supported? Only the Audi A4, A5, A6, A7, A8, Q5, Q7, Q7, Q8, Audi e-tron, Audi e-tron Sportback, Audi e-tron GT* Nothing else. No other makes and models. Just a few Audis. Who does this?! Seriously? Its like developing a PC Game that can only be played by people in Madison, Wisconsin running Mac Pro towers built between 2009-2015, and they can play that game on Wednesday on odd dates of the month. Who does this?! This isn't a business. It's a boutique artisanal popup shop selling handcrafted farts to people who can't smell. It's just confusing. ----- UploadVR: "Holoride Insolvent As Investment Falls Through: 'Pioneering Is Painful'" (IAN HAMILTON) (10 MAY 2024) Holoride's founders say they've filed "for insolvency" after an investment round fell apart. The startup built a platform to present VR headset as in-car entertainment with demos offered at trade shows like CES showing off the concept and a partnership with Audi to sell it to for use in cars in Germany. Holoride CEO and co-founder Nils Wollny acknowledged making mistakes in a post on LinkedIn, that “pioneering is painful” and they "missed our first shot." Responding to questions from UploadVR, Wollny explained over direct message that some employees had been laid off “in February this year based on a new strategic direction. Our team's right-sizing was also based on terms we had agreed on with our planned lead investor.” “While our business operations continue, we are working with the provisional insolvency administrator to find a solution by the end of June to ensure the continued existence of holoride GmbH and conclude our strategic repositioning, which we have intensively worked on.” UploadVR: https://lnkd.in/g32pFPrA #vr #xr #holoride #puzzling

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Maternity in VC in the spotlight. Well done Rachel Drapper, Sophie Winwood & the WVC:E team on getting this important report out there. In VC we’re dealing often with small firms, network & event heavy schedules and FOMO of being left behind if we take time out (I refuse to use the word off as anyone who’s had a child knows that’s the furthest from how it feels). If you’re thinking about having a child or in the throes of the early-stages, navigating how to even try and get some semblance or balance, then hopefully this report can provide some useful tips. Most importantly showcasing that you’re not alone.

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Mark Advani and I have delved into the ins and outs of our Enterprise Fund, watch our latest video to learn more about our flexible approach to investing.

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Exposing harsh truths with data, not opinions. Practical, actionable steps for founders to thrive in their next funding round. The time is good to go fundraising - I'll show why and how. If you're at Bits & Pretzels, come have a chat!

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Investors must be back from holidays…content has taken a termsheet negotiation lean. — Going to be lots of people putting their opinions out to influence deal terms. Founders need good advice from service providers to seperate BS from Inspo. Two Legals POV’s I’d recommend: Patricia Wing’s SuLe for UK. OR Kristina’s Lawlace for US. Startup specific advice, specialised by geography. Generalists can be good but specialists are best. #fundraising #season #GoGetEm #femalefounders #startuplegals

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This month marks my 10 year anniversary in Venture, and what a ten years it has been 🎉 🤩 First stop: JamJar Investments Rewind 10 years and you’ll find me sitting at my desk at JamJar, operating under the alias of “Bread”, working my way through an inbox full of 1000 cold inbound pitch decks, reviewing and replying to every single one. Highlights included a hand drawn picture of a new ketchup sachet design with “target market: Nandos” written below it, and a concept for a drink that tasted like the leftover milk at the bottom of a cereal bowl. But there were also some diamonds in the rough, and it was here that I got my first experience of that lightbulb moment when you meet an exceptional founder that you want to back, making my first investment a few months in. JamJar was the best training ground I could have hoped for, and I'm so grateful to Katie Marrache and Adam Balon, Richard Reed & Jonathan Wright for welcoming me into the team. Second stop: Venrex In 2015, I joined Mark & Tom at Venrex alongside Pooja Patel. We clicked as a team immediately, and over the ensuing years launched 7 new funds, grew the portfolio to 180+ companies, built a brilliant team, moved from a small attic in West London to panoramic views in Fitzrovia, and had a lot of fun along the way. As well as the buzz of discovering new founders to back, I also discovered my love for supporting founders post-investment. With 11 board roles and a further 16 portfolio companies to support, the ex-strategy consultant in me had just enough to get my teeth into. Venrex’s people-centric and pragmatic approach to investing chimed with my own instincts about the type of investor I wanted to be. They gave me the most incredible platform to grow as an investor and roll up my sleeves with all of the operational sides of running a venture fund. To the entire Venrex team, new and old, thank you for an amazing chapter. Third stop: Circle & Co In June, I left Venrex to launch my own Venture fund, Circle & Co, which is on track for its first close next month. It's by total chance that this milestone falls on my 10th anniversary in venture, but what an incredible way to kick off the next decade. More details on the fund to follow, but for the moment I want to thank the amazing network of friends, fellow VCs, founders, LPs and family who have got me this far. You are the original Circle, and have been the inspiration & driving force behind this next step. Let's make it a good one.

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Liquidity or exit planning is often taboo leading to many companies being ill prepared. Successful outcomes are years in the making - they start and end with proactive prep (e.g. getting your house in order, developing strong relationships with strategic partners, potential investors and advisors). With Scott Colvin & Paul Perrett we lay out some key actions you should embed now that can set you up for exit success and also make you a better run business today Big thanks to Bree Fedele 🖋

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A few weeks ago, Openseed VC, in partnership with Dentons and PKF Littlejohn, hosted a webinar on Launching a First-Time Fund for first time managers - if you missed it 👇🏾 The recording is now available: See link in comments 🔗 I often get lots of messages from people looking to set up their first fund, and there’s been interest not only from first-time fund managers but also principals from potential corporates and family offices. With this in mind, I’ve decided to create a small, intimate community of up to ten people to support in their journey to launching a #FirstFund in 2025. Together, we’ll work out how I can best support your process to a first fund in a way that’s valuable to you—while respecting my bandwidth. If this sounds interesting, share more about yourself - link in comments 👇🏾: You should hear back in the new year. Let’s see where this takes us 🌍 #VentureCapital #FirstTimeFund #Entrepreneurship #FundManagers #Innovation #VC

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The 57th edition of the Alt Goes Mainstream AGM Weekly newsletter is out! Last night, we celebrated my cousin’s 21st birthday in London (Happy Birthday, Sara!). It’s quite remarkable to think how much can change over the course of decades. When I moved to London seventeen years ago, she was just starting kindergarten. Today, she has graduated from Imperial College London. A lot can change in seventeen years. People and industries can see tremendous growth when they think in decades rather than days and months. The power of compounding is often hard to grasp in the short term, but its strength lies in the ability to demonstrate patience and consistency. As private markets reaches a new era, it’s an interesting thought experiment to try to peer into the future about what could come next. Read on for predictions on what private markets could look like 15 years from now👇 🗂️ AGM Index, an index that tracks the leading publicly traded alternative asset managers. 🗞️ AGM News of the Week, this week covering: 📌 Institutional Investor's Michael Thrasher on why institutional allocators don't think infrastructure is overvalued. 📌 PitchBook's Jessica Hamlin on why LPs are allocating to infrastructure funds. 📌 Citywire's William Johnson on allocators' views on private credit. 📌 Bloomberg's David Ramli on Bobby Jain seeing private credit compete with hedge funds for LP dollars. 📌 Bloomberg's Jenny Surane, Francine Lacqua, Todd Gillespie on Lazard looking into private credit acquisitions to boost asset management division. 💻 Who is hiring: Senior-level positions from companies Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, Inc., iCapital, Ultimus Fund Solutions, Blue Owl Capital, Hamilton Lane, LemonEdge. Subscribe 👇 to see the latest trends & navigate this rapidly changing landscape as alts go mainstream. https://lnkd.in/emiTPVQ9

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"Funding Collapse sends investment in start-ups to six year low" The Times today covering the shocking stats that VenturePath uncovered, with our partner Beauhurst. Great quotes from supporters Michael Moore CEO, BVCA and Julian David CEO, techUK. * UK VC funding at Series A is -44% from last year, and worsening * Q3 24 is down a staggering 57% from Q2, itself down from Q1 * 9 in 10 seed funded startups cannot access Series A VC funding, the next 'rung on the funding ladder' * Just 32 future scaleup companies across the whole of the UK were able to access their first VC funding round in Q3...a 6 year low * Half a billion less capital is going in to UK scaleups at Series A, than just 2 years ago! As the UK scaleup funding gap widens, we are losing ground against other countries, at both startup stage (a position the UK worked hard to achieve, since 2011), and for scaleup support. OECD data: 13th in the world for scaleup support, and that's before Series A funding access dried up. I get that its confusing. Another report (BBB, Nations & Regions) released this week spoke of positive trends in private investment, stating "The data for Q2 2024 shows that investment value has continued to grow". Great, I love to see optimistic data. But under analysis that bundles venture with private equity (later stage), where a few megadeals skew the numbers. Otherwise the exact opposite is true. Our independent research here, for the UK ScaleUp Investment Mission, is laser beam focussed on Series A. The funding round where companies move from the c.1m startups launched each year, through the 2,179 that access seed funding, into the rarefied category of being recognised as future scaleups, attracting Series A funding (£2-10m). The UK venture landscape is currently funding just 248 pa of these companies, and declining. We've been sharing this urgent call for support with the new Government since the day after the election. I've personally met with several Ministers, and spoke to all the relevant Government departments. I will shamelessly repeat loudly what is at stake. UK scaleup funding at Series A has nearly halved in a year, and continues to decline steeply, more than halving in the last quarter. VenturePath developed The UK ScaleUp Investment Mission to convene the scaleup support ecosystem and £7bn of funders to help address this problem, to improve nationwide access to VC investment, and create more venture-backed successes. We have clear support, clear recommendations to reverse this decline in UK scaleup investment, and have made a clear ask of Government for participation in this, to ensure immediate action is taken to create the conditions for success for UK scaleups, ensuring the focus on growth isn't undermined by lack of capital, or equitable access to it. Government decision makers, we'd love your interest, to progress to action. HM Treasury: Rt Hon Rachel Reeves Spencer Livermore James Murray & CC Poppy Gustafsson (welcome to the debate).

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If I were an LP, I'd be throwing money at Connie. And not just because "great write up on the reality" is one of the highest compliments our newsletter can get

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This may be anti-narrative given the buzz in the market. Paul Graham’s Founder Mode essay (link in comments) glorifies the relentless hands-on approach, suggesting founders must stay deeply involved in every facet of their business. I have a different POV—clinging to every detail may choke your company’s potential and prevent your team from evolving into capable decision-makers. In the early days of Magento, I was committed to ensuring the product met my vision. While I wasn’t coding, I was heavily involved in refining and guiding the direction. As we grew, it became clear that holding onto every detail was slowing us down. When I trusted my team to lead, make decisions, and solve problems creatively, everything changed. Stepping back allowed the team to thrive and the product to excel. Graham implies that only founders are invested enough to make the right decisions. But here’s the thing: founders who micromanage because they don’t trust their team are bottlenecks. Many great decisions at Magento didn’t come from me—they came from empowering our engineers and product leaders to solve problems and be creative. In many cases, I got out of the way, and it worked. Yes, founders must be hands-on early on. Their vision, passion, and deep understanding of the problem they’re solving are invaluable in shaping the direction. But if you’re still overseeing every detail years later, you’re not fostering growth—you’re bottlenecking progress and holding back your team’s ability to step up. True scale happens when you trust your team to carry the vision forward and make decisions independently. (in the photo, the empowered core development team, ~2006) Do you think founders should empower teams as the company scales, or stay hands-on?

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🌱 Looking to Connect with Leading VCs and Early-Stage Investors? 🌱 At Virtualnonexecs, we don;t only work with PE firms - we are also proud to be working with some of the UK’s most active early-stage investors to help them find the top board advisors and chairs who can drive impact. If you're a non-executive or chair looking to connect with the heart of the startup ecosystem, take note of the names below. Here are 10 of the UK's most active early-stage investors and the incredible numbers that back them: 1. Octopus Ventures - Backed 100+ startups, with a portfolio value of over £1.3 billion. 2. Seedcamp - Over 400 startups funded, including unicorns like Revolut and TransferWise 3. LocalGlobe - Invested in 300+ startups across deep tech and fintech. 4. Playfair - Early backer of companies like Stripe and Anduril. 5. Passion Capital - Early investor in Monzo Bank, managing £100M+ in assets. 6. Ascension - Over 100 startups backed with a focus on social impact and fintech. 7. Frontline Ventures - Backed 80+ startups across Europe with a key focus on B2B. 8. MMC Ventures - £500M+ under management, supporting 60+ innovative growth companies. 9. Balderton Capital - Invested in 220+ startups with notable exits like THG. 10. Entrepreneur First - 500+ startups built, including companies now worth over $10 billion collectively. ✅ To join Virtualnonexecs: https://lnkd.in/eXBj687 ✅ If you are a VC or company looking to hire: https://lnkd.in/d3na7CEC #NonExecutiveDirectors #Chairs #VentureCapital #Startups #Virtualnonexecs #BoardRoles #Leadership #BusinessGrowth

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Thinking 🤔 out loud - one of the biggest beneficiaries of GenAI in the enterprise and agentic worfklows will be software PE firms There are so many beaten down SaaS 🦄 they can buy on the cheap and with a GenAI playbook can now reduce costs even more dramatically And as the AI gets better and moves from just the easy stuff like support and code to more complex workflows, the profitability created is going to be 📈 We are going to see a ton of PE buyouts in the months ahead...

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