Hamish Shephard

"Funding Collapse sends investment in start-ups to six year low" The Times today covering the shocking stats that VenturePath uncovered, with our partner Beauhurst. Great quotes from supporters Michael Moore CEO, BVCA and Julian David CEO, techUK. * UK VC funding at Series A is -44% from last year, and worsening * Q3 24 is down a staggering 57% from Q2, itself down from Q1 * 9 in 10 seed funded startups cannot access Series A VC funding, the next 'rung on the funding ladder' * Just 32 future scaleup companies across the whole of the UK were able to access their first VC funding round in Q3...a 6 year low * Half a billion less capital is going in to UK scaleups at Series A, than just 2 years ago! As the UK scaleup funding gap widens, we are losing ground against other countries, at both startup stage (a position the UK worked hard to achieve, since 2011), and for scaleup support. OECD data: 13th in the world for scaleup support, and that's before Series A funding access dried up. I get that its confusing. Another report (BBB, Nations & Regions) released this week spoke of positive trends in private investment, stating "The data for Q2 2024 shows that investment value has continued to grow". Great, I love to see optimistic data. But under analysis that bundles venture with private equity (later stage), where a few megadeals skew the numbers. Otherwise the exact opposite is true. Our independent research here, for the UK ScaleUp Investment Mission, is laser beam focussed on Series A. The funding round where companies move from the c.1m startups launched each year, through the 2,179 that access seed funding, into the rarefied category of being recognised as future scaleups, attracting Series A funding (£2-10m). The UK venture landscape is currently funding just 248 pa of these companies, and declining. We've been sharing this urgent call for support with the new Government since the day after the election. I've personally met with several Ministers, and spoke to all the relevant Government departments. I will shamelessly repeat loudly what is at stake. UK scaleup funding at Series A has nearly halved in a year, and continues to decline steeply, more than halving in the last quarter. VenturePath developed The UK ScaleUp Investment Mission to convene the scaleup support ecosystem and £7bn of funders to help address this problem, to improve nationwide access to VC investment, and create more venture-backed successes. We have clear support, clear recommendations to reverse this decline in UK scaleup investment, and have made a clear ask of Government for participation in this, to ensure immediate action is taken to create the conditions for success for UK scaleups, ensuring the focus on growth isn't undermined by lack of capital, or equitable access to it. Government decision makers, we'd love your interest, to progress to action. HM Treasury: Rt Hon Rachel Reeves Spencer Livermore James Murray & CC Poppy Gustafsson (welcome to the debate).

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Is VC really dead, as people would like us to believe? I think it's (rightly) transforming and setting up roots. Before writing VC's obituary, let’s look at the data. It's quite enticing to be a pessimist proclaiming all is gloom and doomed but it fundamentally misreads how venture capital evolves. All previous 'dying' periods birthed some of the world's most iconic companies, examples like LinkedIn from 2000's crash, Airbnb and Uber from 2008's winter. The 50% dip in overall funding in 2023 isn't death; it's a cleansing of 20-21's tourist VCs who jumped in mistaking momentum for value, lured by the uptrend. Resets are always a good thing for value creation and skill to come to the party. The top quartile firms are still raising oversubscribed funds. Why? Because real VC was never just about capital deployment. Just as mobile and cloud computing emerged from previous downturns, the AI revolution is catalyzing VC to evolve into something more nuanced, more specialized, and ultimately more enduring. The fat is being trimmed, but the muscle is getting stronger. Building enduring companies requires smart capital, strong network effects, and operational expertise, which AI is nowhere close to disrupting. Funds in India itself, deployed over $6.5 Bn+ in 2024 Q2 and Q3. Recently spoke to a VC stalwart who in addition to being long on India also mentioned on how India is ripe and brimming with the world’s finest talent — talent that needs capital to fuel its ambitions. India’s startup ecosystem is in its early years. This is the time when it needs nurturing, and VCs have an important role in that I believe VC is just strengthening its roots to become more thoughtful, value-added - driven by empathy, shared purpose and long-term alignment. Far from dead; alive and excited for what's to come!! Karthik Prabhakar Rohit M A

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Taavet Hinrikus and I made the Financial Times Due Diligence email. https://lnkd.in/ez2AuGQx One 'unintended consequence' is that if there is a 45% tax on carry and CGT (raising £40m per year, remember) it for all intents and purposes closes the door on new VCs in the UK. Especially started by teams from non-traditional backgrounds. To meet the GP commit, you need to be already part of the 'wealthy' as you cannot rely on the value you create - nearly half of it will disappear - to fund it. We have both had extremely successful startups which are few and far between. The smaller number of new VCs will therefore more likely increasingly be for people who have inherited the capital or can draw it from their already rich family. Probably not want they have in mind with this policy.

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I was just talking to a founder about the Stella Service business model that Jordy Leiser had built--where you test the customer service experience at a brand and then charge them in various ways for the results, either showing them how to improve or licensing them a seal of approval. The founder hadn't heard of that model and wondered in what other areas it could apply--and it got me thinking about a repository of models and business structures. Has anything like this been built? Pay to get unbiased recs--a la Angie's list. Good for X, Y, and Z markets. Pros, cons. A plugin that pops up information about each site as you visit it, a la Honey, SiteAdvisor (Chris Dixon's old startup before Hunch). It would be great for founders stuck on something to be able to say I've got X, Y, and Z information flowing from here to there, and it has this criteria, or these types of community members, this kind of power dynamic, etc... What models work for this? Otherwise, you wind up with "Uber for neurosurgeons" without realizing that "Uber for" only works with relatively commoditized services.

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Not all venture firms are created equal - at Playfair Associates & Principals write cheques and lead deals 💰 Why? Because they have the ability, drive and passion to do so And what we care about most is building optimal partnerships with founders that deliver results This means matching them with the right investor who then continually leverages the diverse experiences of our entire team I spend a lot of my time nowdays supporting these investments as well as leading my own I love doing both Founders: don't assume only partners lead deals and don't be afraid to ask how decision making works during your pitch call #venturecapital #startups #fundraising #founder #entrepreneur #entrepreneurship #technology #innovation #business #ceo

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The 57th edition of the Alt Goes Mainstream AGM Weekly newsletter is out! Last night, we celebrated my cousin’s 21st birthday in London (Happy Birthday, Sara!). It’s quite remarkable to think how much can change over the course of decades. When I moved to London seventeen years ago, she was just starting kindergarten. Today, she has graduated from Imperial College London. A lot can change in seventeen years. People and industries can see tremendous growth when they think in decades rather than days and months. The power of compounding is often hard to grasp in the short term, but its strength lies in the ability to demonstrate patience and consistency. As private markets reaches a new era, it’s an interesting thought experiment to try to peer into the future about what could come next. Read on for predictions on what private markets could look like 15 years from now👇 🗂️ AGM Index, an index that tracks the leading publicly traded alternative asset managers. 🗞️ AGM News of the Week, this week covering: 📌 Institutional Investor's Michael Thrasher on why institutional allocators don't think infrastructure is overvalued. 📌 PitchBook's Jessica Hamlin on why LPs are allocating to infrastructure funds. 📌 Citywire's William Johnson on allocators' views on private credit. 📌 Bloomberg's David Ramli on Bobby Jain seeing private credit compete with hedge funds for LP dollars. 📌 Bloomberg's Jenny Surane, Francine Lacqua, Todd Gillespie on Lazard looking into private credit acquisitions to boost asset management division. 💻 Who is hiring: Senior-level positions from companies Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, Inc., iCapital, Ultimus Fund Solutions, Blue Owl Capital, Hamilton Lane, LemonEdge. Subscribe 👇 to see the latest trends & navigate this rapidly changing landscape as alts go mainstream. https://lnkd.in/emiTPVQ9

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The British Business Bank produced a great report last week on the performance of UK VC funds (link in comments) over the last 20+ years. As with all reports like this, it's really important to dig into the detail and not just rely on the headlines. In particular, I was keen to compare the performance of the best UK funds to those in the US. While accepting the limitations of the data (all performance data on VC is based on a very low sample size), it's still interesting to see how the UK funds in the BBB report compare to the Cambridge Associates US VC benchmarks. As you can see from the chart below, the top quartile benchmark for UK funds exceeded the US funds for the period 2002-2007. But the sample size for UK funds in this period is particularly low (eg just five funds for the 2004/05 period). Since 2008, the top quartile UK funds have underperformed the US benchmark, and since 2010 are much closer to the US median return than the upper quartile. There are some outstanding founders and companies in the UK and some strong-performing VC funds. But the reality of VC is that performance is driven by a small number of outlier investments. Without these, it's almost impossible to deliver 3x net returns to LPs. For the UK to really become competitive with the US, we need to see more UK-based companies able to scale and exit at valuations in excess of $5bn. Unfortunately, there are no easy solutions to achieving this. We consistently hear from our VC managers that there is no shortage of capital for the best UK companies. Where there is a shortage is in the number of world-class founders looking to build in the UK. Get this right and the capital (and returns) will follow.

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TLDR: EIS should be scrapped as a fund structure but retained for Angel investments by individuals. Alex Chalmers has done all the work which in 10 years I've never got around to doing: why 95% of EIS/VCT funds are bad for our tech ecosystem, rip #startups off, and why as a Founder you should push back against their stupid fees or not take their money. https://lnkd.in/dnq9ZScS

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My email to a founder that I'd like to invest in, re: what makes Graham & Walker special: "Every fund has traditional 'value add', and so do we - big amplification channels, help with press, impressive network that we can name drop etc. But I don't think that's what makes us special. We're the fund you want on your side when things get hard. And they will, in fact, get hard. (And, somewhat ironically, if you don't believe things will get hard, then I don't think we'll want to invest in you). We are ride or die investors. We have a high tolerance for the early, ugly and messy. We're honest with you, but always kind. We shine when it's hard to talk to the rest of your investors. As proof points I offer what some of our founders have to say about us. And some of my writing, both in public (like our values, and the viral article about female founder takedowns), and in private (I'll forward you the email I sent to the whole portfolio late last year). Most importantly, I invite you to talk to any of our portfolio companies, particularly those who have had moments of struggle as well as moments of victory. I'm excited to be on your cap table. Our mission at Graham & Walker is to change the face of the Nasdaq by investing in female founders that can go the distance. I believe you might be one of them."

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Very proud to see the WVC:E dream team - Anisah Osman Britton MBE & Rachel Drapper - alongside long time friend and rockstar Ekaterina Gianelli on stage at TechBBQ discussing "Fixing the Talent Exodus in VC". Key Takeaways: 💰Impact of Consolidation on Culture and Talent: The ongoing consolidation in the VC industry is reshaping company culture, affecting morale, and influencing talent. 🚀Emerging Managers Aren’t Diversifying VC: Despite the rise of emerging managers, the industry remains largely homogenous, with many new managers still coming from the same traditional, non-diverse backgrounds. ⚠️Perceptions of Diversity as High Risk: Many in the VC industry continue to view diverse hires, investments, and business models as "high risk," "too time-consuming," or "too costly," perpetuating a cycle of exclusion. 🚼 Parental Leave Inequality: Inequities in parental leave policies are disproportionately affecting women in venture, creating additional barriers to progression. But there are funds, investors, LPs and organisations (like us!) that are trying to change this!

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I couldn’t be prouder to be a Venture Partner at Isomer Capital (aka the best European FoF - at least for me) as we just announced the launch of our pioneering £100m secondaries fund. This fund is dedicated to acquiring stakes from LPs in various VC funds, tapping into a massive and largely unexplored market. 🌟 Key Highlights: - Focused Investment: Primarily targeting stakes in VC funds, with selective investments in private companies. - Robust Funding: Already over 20% funded, thanks to strong support from Nordic family offices and a German foundation. - Market Potential: With a growing number of private tech companies and a VC liquidity crunch, Europe's VC secondaries market is poised for rapid growth. - Track Record: This isn’t Isomer’s first foray into the secondaries market. As a firm we’ve done several secondaries deals with portfolio companies and VC firms, including early-stage VC Seedcamp (in 2021) and mobility giant Bolt (in 2023). - Expert Team: Welcoming the amazing Omolade (Rachel) A., formerly of Coller Capital, as a principal to lead this initiative. 💡 Investment Strategy: - 65-75% of the fund will buy "LP interest" stakes in VC funds. - 15-25% will be directed towards stakes in companies. - Up to 15% reserved for flexible investment opportunities. 📈 Looking Ahead: We're targeting returns of 2-3x, with significant distributions expected in the next 4-7 years. As one of the few players in this space, we're not just participating in the market—we're driving it forward. Read all about it here: https://lnkd.in/dc7sbC3G #VentureCapital #SecondariesFund #EuropeanVC

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Great conversation yesterday at Preqin with Preqin's Cameron Joyce, CFA, CAIA, Blue Owl Capital's Cara Griffiths, Bain Capital's Tom Sargeant on the future of fundraising for private markets. Where will AUM come from going forward? What are the challenges that funds will face in fundraising? What strategies will be most popular going forward? It was fascinating to hear the perspectives of some of the industry's biggest platforms in Blue Owl Capital and Bain Capital from Cara and Tom, respectively, as to where fundraising is headed given their purview on the market and from Cameron on his data-driven insights from market research and plenty of numbers crunching on what it will take for private markets to grow to $30T AUM by 2030.

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ANNOUNCEMENT: We just launched our diversified fund investments feature on Mainshares 😲 Starting today, accredited investors can invest in SMB acquisitions managed by sophisticated investors via Mainshares I’ve been telling you all that we’re here to change the game of SMB investing for the better, and this is a huge step for us. Before, SMB investing was commonly done on a deal-by-deal basis, and depending on who you are, you may not have the time to spend parsing out every deal. Well now, investors on our platform have access to deals across a variety of industries, geographies, and deal structures in this (traditionally) inaccessible and fragmented asset class. Invest in ~20 SMBs, all with a single investment. Join the Mainshares train before we take off like a 🚀 Link below for diversified SMB investing 👇

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🔮 The quality of emerging managers will INCREASE in the next two vintages Being a GP at a large VC is frustrating. Deals sourced no longer have significant impact at mega-funds, leaving limited control over upside Carry gets blended across the partnership. The best pickers will move on The best three VC vintages in the last 25 years came in the three years after the GFC - 80% of those returns came from emerging managers. 2024 to 2026 can be a repeat 🐠 LP money is gravitating towards established funds right now, the exact opposite direction it should be heading. Those who swim against the current will be the real winners. #VC #venturecapital

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As a Partner at Antler, one of the most active early-stage investors in the world, I’m thrilled to announce our latest round of investments—£840k across seven exciting new British startups! The eleventh UK residency brought together over 2,400 applicants from across the globe, with 78 founders making the cut. This group reflects incredible diversity, representing 24 nationalities and 18% female founders. After a rigorous selection process that included over 200 hours of due diligence per company, we’re backing just under 1% of applicants, confident in the impact they’ll have. Here are the seven ventures joining the Antler family: 🔎 Vente AI: Changing the recruitment game by automating how agencies discover roles and optimize their candidate pipelines. 💡Distillery: Unlocking rapid insights for businesses, providing crucial product and marketing data 25x faster than traditional methods. (Vasil Yakov, Edward Louth) 🏦 Banqora: Uses AI to automate document processing and streamline post-trade operations, saving financial institutions significant time and money. 🏠 AskVinny: Simplifying property management with AI, making tenant-landlord interactions effortless and improving service delivery. 🪲 Omma: Supporting sustainable farming with AI-driven insect incubation, reducing the need for pesticides in large-scale horticulture. 🧑‍🏭️ Tradestack: Helping trades businesses quote quicker and win more jobs with an AI-backed productivity tool. 🏨 Inntelo AI: Transforming hotel operations with AI that automates guest services, making every stay smoother and more personalized. With some of them already speaking to follow-on investors and closing investment rounds, I’m personally excited about what lies ahead for them all. If you’d like to connect with any of the founders or learn more, drop me a message! 🚀 🦄 #VentureCapital #Investments #Founders #TechStartups

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I don't go in for 'building in public' in general, but every now and then I think it's worth sharing what I'm seeing in the market. The below graph shows the average time to close a deal over time at EmergeOne and you can see that this has been creeping up since last year (adjusted for seasonality) and is currently close to 3 months to close a deal. So what's happening? Well, I was recently at an CFO event where we got a bit of a data driven view into the state of private markets. Some key points that came out: 🏷️ Median post money at Series A has dropped from 80m USD in 21/22 to 65m USD in 2024. This is still up from 40m from circa 2020. ％ Top quartile is significantly over at 107m. 📈 Series B median post money is $137m, top quartile $287m USD, but bottom quartile significantly struggling. 🚀 Deal velocity has slowed but started recovering. 💰 Lots of deals are happening but not priced - bridges abound. So how does this therefore relate to what we're seeing in terms of time to close? Firstly, we are a consultancy providing fractional CFO support to venture backed tech startups typically post Seed and pre Series A so this data reflects what we are generally seeing in the market as well. But the two main issues that are seemingly impacting our numbers are around deal velocity and bridge financing. There are simply fewer deals being done and they are taking longer to close, so the volume of potential clients we can target has dropped significantly. This does, however, mean that the quality of deals we're working on is significantly higher this year. Secondly, as companies struggle to raise priced rounds, they are raising lower amounts of capital on convertibles. This impacts us as CFOs are only truly valuable when there is a significant balance sheet to manage, less capital = less need for CFOs and hence the decision as to when to bring us in gets pushed out. But equally, that insecurity over funds means that founders are much more hesitant to make significant hiring decisions, prioritising hires that can directly influence revenue / traction in the near term. But they also know that they need the support so are often waiting for the 'magic moment' where they hit an inflection point that gives them confidence to pull the trigger. Outside of the deal data, we are also seeing venture indexing towards more R&D heavy businesses (life science, hardware etc.) and these sort of companies are often not commercialising for several years. They have security over spend and regard finance as a future problem. We are seeing a lot of companies approaching Series B without anyone in finance, deferring that decision till they close. But we are also seeing leads come through from a multitude of sources proving there is appetite for strong commercially minded CFOs to support and grow these scaling businesses. So as the market stabilises, I would expect to see these numbers come back. Business wouldn't be any fun if it was all easy, would it?!

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Last week, the ‘CAIO Collective’ caught up in central London for an event that was anything but ordinary. Since last month’s meetup with our Business Safari through Big Data LDN, we’ve welcomed a further seventeen in person members and over 60 virtual members!  So… this was a gathering of some of the sharpest minds in AI leadership all focused on navigating the increasingly complex landscape of driving real value from artificial intelligence and its real-world applications. This session came at a critical time, as the sector grapples with new regulations, ethical considerations, and the rapid pace of technological advancement and this meant a packed agenda. By strong demand, we pushed the AI talent, learning, and development into December’s meetup using the time instead to focus on this month’s hot topic… the European AI Act (AIA). So… the AIA was at the forefront of our discussions this time around. Its impact on the industry is set to be profound, but not without some controversy. While many welcomed the Act’s intent to enforce transparency, fairness and accountability, there was a fervent shared concern about its potential to curb innovation. This was especially the case for small and medium enterprises. For many in the Collective, this regulation represents a call to action. It’s not just about compliance; it’s about demonstrating how responsible AI can genuinely thrive under a robust framework. The debate also touched on the strategic importance of engaging with policymakers early and ensuring that the voices of practitioners who understand AI’s real-world complexities are really heard. Another focal point was the rise of AI-powered decision-making systems. From dynamic supply chain optimisation to real-time fraud detection, AI’s ability to handle complex decision-making processes is driving a new wave of operational efficiency across industries. However, it’s not without its challenges. Many organisations are grappling with how to deploy these systems at scale while ensuring transparency and maintaining a human in the loop oversight. The discussion highlighted that successful AI deployment isn’t just about technology; it’s about building trust - both within organisations and with their customers. The event was not just a forum for discussion but a call to action. The Collective is dedicated to shaping the future of AI by building frameworks that are ethical, strategic and sustainable. If you’re a Chief AI Officer or in AI leadership and want to engage with a community that’s on the cutting edge of these issues, we’d love to have you join us. Our next gathering is provisionally scheduled for 4 December at The Century Club, where we’ll dive into the critical topic of talent, learning, and development in AI - a key factor in sustaining the industry’s momentum. #CAIOCollective #ChiefAIOfficer #EUAIAct #AIRegulation #AILeadership #EthicalAI #DataGovernance #AIinBusiness #ChathamHouseRules

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I'm speaking at SuperVenture 2024 on the 5th of June in Berlin. The topic of the panel is emerging VC managers: time to shine or out of their depth? Are LPs fleeing to established names and those that cut their teeth during previous cycles? Or is now the time for emerging managers to bring something different to the table? Is volatility leading to true innovation and disruption? We’re on track to see approximately 44% of the total LP capital committed to US VC funds since the start of the year go to just two large established VC platforms, according to PitchBook data. While many established VCs maintain their allure, there is a subset of LPs who are making a deliberate choice to increase their allocations to specialist emerging VC managers - managers who have spun out from established funds and have an attributable track record, founders with deep operational experience turned funders or academics with deep domain expertise. There is non-trivial added complexity when it comes to emerging VC selection – given the large number of funds needed to be screened and the more complicated referencing and DD process. Data highlights how important it is for GPs to identify & back ‘big winners’ early on to drive fund returns. Typically, ~5% of invested capital in a few winners drives most of the return (>50%). The VC model is built around investing in early-stage companies each with the potential to more than return the whole fund. Who has the right to win? Who will the best founders (and LPs) decide to partner with? #SuperVenture #VC SuperReturn

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Survival of the Fittest in a Shifting Funding Landscape Founders are adopting a low-key approach, focusing their energy on internal growth. Armed with capital secured in 2021, many are strategically revitalising their businesses. But the big question remains: What will the dealmaking landscape look like in 2024? "Overall, capital infusion will be concentrated on a narrower spectrum of companies than in all. The private capital raising landscape is anticipated to be robust, showcasing significant improvement from 2022. However, the capital infusion will be concentrated on a narrower spectrum of companies compared to the prolific scene of 2021." Read More: https://lnkd.in/d3536qvA In the meantime, share your thoughts! Are you a founder facing a funding crunch? How are you adapting your strategy? #StartupFunding #Founders #Growth #DealMaking #SibaPanda

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