Jasper Meyns

ASEAN Wonk (aseanwonk.com) just made my day with this generous review of our book “Asian military evolutions - Civil-military relations in Asia”. Read the review (and lots of useful insights on ASEAN) here: https://lnkd.in/emaa-VnN AND check out the book! It brings together a great group of scholars with deep insights into Asian militaries 📚 https://lnkd.in/e4V8ZMPt

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In this piece Dr Rahul Mishra, PhD and I discuss the latest results of the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS) State of Southeast Asia 2024 survey. We argue that this survey should be viewed in context to current developments unfolding on the ground in areas beyond #SEA today and read the shift in perception towards China cautiously. Nevertheless, it reveals how polarising US-China competition is and what #ASEAN must do to remain relevant.

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An excellent article written by a former colleague of mine. The moves by some ASEAN members states to join BRICS should been seen as part of efforts to create as much diplomatic, and to be more specific in this case, economic space for them as possible. It is underpinned by pragmatism. It's not about taking sides. Besides being "burned" by the Covid pandemic, there is also a growing sense of a lack of leadership in the Western world. To put it bluntly, ASEAN hasn't felt meaningfully engaged. The US' withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement sent a strong negative signal that still reverberates today. The value of such agreements cannot be measured in just dollars and cents, and/or just from a four-year/one-term time frame. It is not just the US. Unfortunately, such is the nature of the democratic systems in many countries. These systems tend to lead to sub-optimal outcomes in their bid to protect their peoples from far more risky forms of political power organisation. The value of in-person platforms for dialogue and engagement, even if they entail long hours of flying, cannot be easily measured. Relationships matter, at all levels. It is not just a "cultural" thing. Every organisation/forum can do its part of bridge gaps and build... well... bridges, not just at the highest political levels, but also across various subject matter domains. As amorphous as BRICS is, it is minimally one such platform. The World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO) brings together official IP representatives from nation states as well as a growing range of stakeholders. [And now for a shameless plug...] The International Trademark Assocation (INTA), with its over 36,000 members from over 6,400 members brings globally-oriented brand owners and IP practitioners together. We all have a role to play to make sure that the conversations continue civilly, even when the bombs drop and missiles fly. https://lnkd.in/gdN8tUJb

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This podcast explores why Singapore emerged to play a leading role in Indo-Pacific business and geopolitical affairs--even hosting major international events like the Asia Tech Summit and the Shangri-La Dialogue. It talks about how Singapore came to be, and how it navigates its complex relationships with the US and China and practices a "consistent, principled and pragmatic" foreign policy. It also touches on Singapore's external security threats, its internal politics and its approach to balancing political stability against civil liberties. Finally, it explains how Beijing's crackdown in Hong Kong and political changes in the U.S. have impacted Singapore https://lnkd.in/e-zpnq5F

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Shared comments with media, including The Straits Times, South China Morning Post SCMP, and Lianhe Zaobao 联合早报 on the use of Singapore's Foreign Interference (Countermeasures) Act [FICA] against close to 100 social media accounts that are part of the Guo Wengui network. The content of number of these accounts touches on Singapore. 🔵 The network is an extremely large one. There is a Singapore chapter but this is only a small part of the overall ecosystem. 🔵 The slant of some of the Singapore-related content suggests that the government here is weak or fraying, and somehow under the control of the CCP. The content has not got a great deal of traction, although it is possible that at the individual level some have had pre-existing cognitive biases reinforced by this type of content.    🔵 Even though the network isn't overly sophisticated, the use of FICA's account restriction directions should not be considered surprising. Lack of impact now does not mean nil effect later. When FICA was introduced, gvt here made it clear that it needs tools which will enable it to detect, deter and if possible defeat hostile information campaigns. 🔵 The government has elected to act in an anticipatory way, before damage is done. In one scenario,a network such as this could pivot (if there was a need) and ramp up its activities to focus more directly on Singapore. And it could potentially do so with more finesse - this could influence hearts and minds in Singapore, and potentially interfere in the democratic process in a manner I would consider coercive, particularly of any such ramping up were to take place at or near sensitive periods, such as elections.   🔵 Guo’s links to Steve Bannon, former political strategist and confidante of former president Donald Trump, are interesting. But it would be unwise to draw further conclusions or to attempt to conclusively attribute any other hidden hands that might have abetted Guo and his network. Certainly, there is a pronounced anti-CCP slant, and this is reflective of how a certain part of the US political spectrum thinks. It is possible that a future US administration might selectively adopt some of the lines seen in the videos in attempting to pressure other nations, including those friendly to it.     🔵 What other hidden hands are behind the Guo network is a matter of technical analysis and attribution. This will take time. Clearly, the security agencies in Singapore have made the call to protect Singapore’s interests first and act now, with further investigations on the make-up and true intent of the network being kept for later (or the subject of closed door discussions). 🔵 The anticipatory manner in which the government has acted may provide something of a clue as to how FICA (particularly the provisions which require take downs and cooperation from the platforms) may be employed in future, either in or out of an election period.

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More continuity than change? Taiwan’s President-elect Lai Ching-te will reshuffle but retain cabinet heavyweights in key defence, trade, foreign affairs and security positions. Wellington Koo, Joseph Wu, John Deng, Tsai Ming-yen etc will remain in cabinet. Referring to incumbent national security council chief Wellington Koo and foreign minister Joseph Wu, Ivan Kanapathy told Nikkei Asia: “These two top ministers have anchored a strong yet unprovocative defense of Taiwanese sovereignty under President Tsai.” “In terms of foreign affairs, Lai’s top priority will be to prepare for the outcome of the U.S. presidential race and uncertainty arising from a Donald Trump victory, which may also intensify the already-tense U.S.-China relations,” Bo-jiun Jing commented. https://lnkd.in/dEJm-ttb

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Hosted by Sarah Teo, Dr #Natalegawa shared his insights accumulated for decades in foreign policy, focusing on #ASEAN Pak Marty repeatedly highlighted the lost diplomatic prowess of ASEAN, which is encapsulated as a convening power, informal diplomacy based on candid and frank leaders-level engagement in a comfortable setting. He further argues that he sees ASEAN from a realist's perspective for the challenges engulfed by constant power injection and dynamics surrounding the region but, in parallel, idealistic as ASEAN is equipped with the capacity to change the dynamic. He points to ASEAN's role as the architect of confidence-building measures, demonstrated when the #ARF was established and the APT was conceived under ASEAN's leadership. For example, according to Natalegawa, the outcome documents of a series of ASEAN meetings are usually prepared 8-9 months prior to the summit for the leaders' adoption. Due to this time-consuming exercise, ASEAN faces challenges of being insufficient as a convening power and not agile enough to be timely on the issues they need to discuss in-depth at the summit due to the volatile geopolitical situation.  Specifically, in the South China Sea paragraphs in the outcome documents, ASEAN has shown its tendency to make itself a third party by inserting 'some countries' instead of sending a unified message since 2015. This is seen as ambivalent as diverse yet inconsistent. Natalegawa argues that ASEAN must transcend its role as a mere 'event organiser' and avoid falling into routine. His insights and experience are very rich, and ASEAN is indeed the product of the experienced thinkers like Natalegawa. But how to theorise such intangible asset deeply ingrained in the regional diplomacy is a very novice yet difficult task. How to fill the details to convince the dialogue partners ASEAN is dealing with as more than a covener? In this connection, #Acharya has endeavoured to theories ASEAN from a non-West angle, and this has gained some recognition in the IR field. Nonetheless, this isn't fully supported in the academia due to its ambiguity. https://lnkd.in/g3WwUnbZ

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What is needed to make #japan an “asset management nation”: English: https://lnkd.in/gJzT7MfQ Japanese: https://lnkd.in/gub3qU22

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The weaponization of deepfakes is a growing concern, exemplified by a recent incident involving over 100 Singapore public servants, including five ministers, who were targeted with extortion attempts using AI-generated compromising images. Key points to note from this event: - Targeting has evolved to focus on public officials with easily accessible online information and images. - The impact is widespread, affecting multiple government agencies simultaneously. - Similarities to attacks in Hong Kong indicate potential cross-border coordination. - Notably, the democratization of this threat is alarming, as deepfake attacks, once requiring advanced technical skills, are now more prevalent. Globally, there has been a significant 245% year-on-year increase in deepfakes, reflecting the technology's growing accessibility and sophistication, providing malicious actors with a potent tool for exploitation. https://lnkd.in/gRuWQHgU #Singapore #Deepfakes #Government #EthicalAI

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Wrapping up this month, one of the latest developments in Singapore is the changes in its leadership. Lawrence Wong, the 4th PM of Singapore sworn in about 2 weeks ago. If you want to know more about what the changes in leadership mean to Singapore, I strongly suggest you to read this piece by Carmen Lim, a research intern at Cross Border Insights who is graduating from Nanyang Technological University Singapore! Her analysis is particularly interesting coming from someone who spent years in Singapore!

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Policy Shifts on the Horizon in Thai Politics With an upcoming cabinet reshuffle, some impacts on policy continuity are expected. Notably, the much-debated 14B digital handout program (in the form of digital money) is likely to be discarded. As Thai politics navigate through this transitional phase, it's crucial for stakeholders in the private sectors to stay informed. The implications of these changes could ripple across various sectors. #ThaiPolitics #PolicyChange #Government #Economics #SoutheastAsia

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Kudos to the team for turning around a quick yet intriguing piece on Malaysia's overtures to Russia at a time when it's chairing the ASEAN grouping. Amir Yusof Amanda Oon How would its invitation to Russian President Vladimir Putin for the ASEAN summits next year be perceived by fellow Southeast Asian nations? If the Russia-Ukraine war is still raging on then and if Mr Putin does turn up, what would other ASEAN members and its dialogue partners do? How would it affect the dynamics between ASEAN states? Interesting times ahead under Malaysia's ASEAN chairmanship.

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Ex-Minister Iswaran has started his jail term, taking the 12 months on the chin. I agree that as a full-time public servant, the habit of receiving even small gifts over a long period (7 years) can erode trust in the public office, but 12 months still feels harsh given that corruption charges were dropped. But now to assess the wider fallout. Fei Ching Loo（卢慧菁）looks into this in Lianhe Zaobao 联合早报. I think we need to be cautious - a full-on kneejerk reaction wouldn't be helpful. I heard about a tea lady being scolded by HR for giving her public servant bosses a cake she had baked for CNY. Small occasional gestures of friendship and goodwill should not be banned in the name of governance. For those of us in the private sector taking on public service roles, it's much more complicated. I have a full-time job where gifts and meals are exchanged to facilitate relationship-building. People in those positions need to know exactly when our "public servant" hats are on our heads, so that those same heads don't roll. Looking forward to more clarity. #LegalAdvice #SingaporeLaw #Corruption #SingaporeCrimes

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Strategies for Entering the International Markets ----- ERIA Digital Innovation and Sustainable Economy Centre (E-DISC) - 23 October 2024. I will be sharing on how to equip women founders with practical strategies to expand their businesses beyond their national borders into international markets, with a specific focus on the ASEAN region. The emphasis will be on how to explore key market entry tactics, understand the regulatory and policy landscapes, and learn how to leverage cross-border e-commerce and digital trade opportunities to grow their business and increase their impact. The discussion will cover concrete issues of relevance to digital businesses looking into expanding abroad, such as market research and segmentation, currency and payment options, shipping & amp; logistics, access to capital, as well as regulatory compliance. eTradeforWomen UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) @ecdeatunctad ERIA: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia @saiac #etradeforwomen Viridiana Vargas Prof Pradip Mazumder PhD DRDO TATA U of Utah Kalyani Tantia Univ Open to VC. . 🇮🇳 FIRST #womeninbusiness #womenintech #changemaker

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Overcapacity Underwhelming China integrates development of urban clusters, “Overcapacity” as rhetorical coercion, “Over” capacity is a false narrative, Blinken sings China tariff blues.

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