Ashish Sinha

📊 Is pricing the answer to fragmenting the UPI App market? 📊 📈💡NPCI has extended the 30% market cap deadline because the top 3 UPI apps have ~92% market share. Phonepe, Paytm & Gpay capitalized on the early mover advantage. New apps don’t have incentives to compete for UPI volumes because it is a “free product.” And while this was why it grew, it has now also hindered entry of new players ✅ Global real time payment (RTP) equivalents are usually free for the customer while merchants are charged. Ex: 🇧🇷 Pix: Merchant: 0.22 - 0.3% / txn, free for user 🇨🇭 Twint: Merchant:1.3% / txn, free for user 🇵🇱 Blik: Merchant: $0.1 - $0.75 / txn, free for user 🇸🇪 Swish: Merchant: $0.09 / txn, free for user 🇸🇬 PayNow: Merchant: 1.3% / txn, free for user 📈💡 If we want to keep RTP free for the end user, the constraint is free P2P payments. Only P2M can be charged. Is that feasible? Let’s look at the data: 📌 UPI Value (in Cr): From April ‘23 to ‘24, grew by 39.6%. P2P grew from 10L Cr to 14L Cr, at ~32% growth YoY. And P2M grew from 3.2 L Cr to 5.3 L Cr, at~65% YoY. 📌 UPI Volume (in B txn): From April ‘23 to April ‘24 UPI volume grew by 62%. P2P grew from 3.8B to 4.9B, at YoY 29%. P2M grew from 5B to 8.3B at YoY 65%. And proportionally: 📌 April ‘24 Value: Total: INR 19L Cr, P2P: 72.97%, P2M: 27.03% 📌 April ‘24 Volume: Total: 13.3B, P2P: 37.5%, P2M: 62.5% ✅ The constraint of only being able to price P2M transactions is not a blocker, P2M seems to have significant volumes. But that’s the overall P2M market: There is a big segment that falls within P2PM (unorganized merchants), that NPCI will not charge 📈💡Let’s assume that P2PM majorly consists of low value transactions of AoV less than Rs 2000. If we look at AoV > 2000 bucket of P2M transactions, this constitutes for 4.50% of txn numbers, and 68.36% of P2M txn value. ✅ So even excluding P2PM this still leaves a significant~68% of P2M monthly value or 4.5% of P2M txns that can be monetized So what’s the ideal pricing model? ❗Well, the cost of a UPI transaction is ~Rs 0.4. At 13.3B UPI txns that is a monthly cost of Rs 532 Cr. Which is Rs 6384 Cr per annum to maintain the UPI ecosystem! The pricing needs to generate atleast this much❗ 1️⃣ Option 1: Fixed fee / txn: If only AoV > Rs 2000 txns are charged, then to break-even, the fee per txn needs to be Rs 15, which is high. If ALL the P2M txns are charged, then a per txn cost of Rs 0.67 would be enough to break-even. But the P2PM merchant would be impacted 2️⃣ Option 2: % of txn value: If only AoV > Rs 2000 txns are charged, then the break-even fee is 0.15%. If the total P2M value is charged, the fee needs to be 0.10%. Seems to make more sense But even if pricing comes, while it incentivizes new apps it also incentivizes incumbents to keep their market share. Enter: the 30% UPI market share cap To read the full article and other pieces like this, click here: https://lnkd.in/gSPm49aq #fintech #UPI #NPCI

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Eternal source of confusion in India SaaS. Terms like SMB, mid-market and enterprise are used pretty casually. Putting out a version here and inviting opinions from founders & investors on how they see the breakpoints between segments. US: SMB (upto $250mm in annual revenue), mid-market/commercial ($250mm-$1B), enterprise ($1B+). India: S (upto 10cr), MB (upto 250cr/$30mm in annual revenue), mid-market (250cr-1000cr, upto $150mm), enterprise (1000cr+/$150mm+) (note the breakpoints between segments are much lower in India and not comparable to the US)

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Here's one more theme that has played out over the past decade in India SaaS: SaaS companies that sell into India/Asia (non-China/Japan). There's been a reasonably large set of investors in India who have been default no in this category, based on perception of limited TAM and GTM challenges. However, there is reason to be optimistic for this theme (we are!). A reasonable set of companies in the ecosystem have scaled, such as MoEngage, Darwinbox, Capillary Technologies, Yellow.ai, Unicommerce , Gupshup, CRMNEXT, LeadSquared. Companies like Salesforce, SAP etc have reached multi-hundred million ARR in India. As a result, the potential scale from sales in India has grown from the $15-20mm that people used to talk about 5 years back to perhaps $50mm in India, overall $100mm-150mm in Asia. I think we'll see more companies continue to get funded here as IT demand in India/SEA deepens and local requirements (mobile, India Stack, regulations, languages) get addressed. Founders and investors will need to tune into this being a solid path to go but will take longer to get to impact than US/EU-focused companies. Some characteristics we see at India/SEA-facing software companies: * Many start out in SMB but then find scale & success selling into enterprises. India market has a ton of SMBs (10mm+), a relatively light mid-market and a significant set of large enterprises. * Products tend to have feature sprawl and design-deficit but this can be fixed. * Some large sectors that are pulling at enterprise level e.g. BFSI, multi-sector conglomerates. Early traction from digital native companies (but naturally capped market). * Natural to go to SEA & Gulf countries. Product could remain fairly similar but sales & marketing motion can be quite different. To get really large, feels like will have to end up going to US/EU markets eventually. * ~10 years to $100mm ARR, with market leadership in Asia * Gross margins start out perhaps 10-15 points lower than corresponding companies in the US/EU but trend up over time. * Most India-facing SaaS companies are starting as India Pvt. Ltd. today, compared to 5 years ago (versus US C-corp), with a view to going public in India at $50-100mm revenue level.

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Who exactly is losing market share in the hotly contest grocery commerce? I thought it must be the now-not-so modern retail, but I'm not so sure. Zepto raised $665 Mn at a valuation of $3.6 Bn, and is in talks to raise $250 Mn more. And their cofounder and CEO Aadit Palicha recently commented that they can beat DMart - Avenue Supermarts Ltd on GMV in the next 12-18 months. Swiggy Instamart also is growing, and Blinkit is likely to be more valuable than their owner Zomato itself - so they are all doing well, even if Dunzo isn't. Sure, no idea what JioMart Digital is doing, but deep pockets. Same with Tata Digital and their weird assortment forced to converge on Neu. bigbasket.com is trying to unlearn and relearn, and it just might. And Flipkart Grocery and Amazon Fresh are also upping their game - launching faster deliveries, discounts, improved fill rates, and selection. So I wonder if it is the modern-trade players? The likes of More Retail Private Limited, Spencer's Retail, STAR BAZAR, and SPAR Retail that are suffering? The nearest Spencer's to me is definitely a sore sight, now reduced to a shell of it's former glory - I think they aren't even replenishing inventory now. And we all know what happened to Big Bazaar - Future Retail. But Dmart itself isn't doing half bad - with pareto presence in just 23 cities, and no presence in UP (except NCR), Bihar, and West Bengal, they have considerable headroom, still. And they haven't yet quite solved for ecommerce, so while The Ken says that they are lost, they may find their way, eventually? I also don't think that the real consumption is growing, if at all, it may even shrink with the K-growth. Thus, some one _is_ losing share. And if it is not modern trade, then is it the regional chains? The single kiranas? The corner-store? The hand-cart? I'm not entirely sure because this data is hard to organize, and get. Would you know? Image created by AI in Microsoft Bing Copilot.

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Meet Ankur Bansal, a Senior Product Consultant at BlueStacks, who is not just a community member but also a 1% Club Commando. He has seen his stock market portfolio rise by 67% in 4 years. In an interview with the team, Ankur shares some simple but interesting insights from his investing journey till now. Here’s his full story - https://lnkd.in/dwCn4z-c #stockmarket #investing #community #financialplanning

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CLSA published a detailed research report on India quick commerce. Recommended reading. Who will be the first to create a $50-100Bn company in India internet? #Zepto #Zomato #IndiaInternet

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My Take on Gokul Rajaram’s Software IPOs in India👇 India has seen several B2B SaaS IPOs in the last few years. When Rategain IPOed on Indian public markets, their revenue was $40M with $4M in operating profits and $1M in profits after tax. Today 2 years after the IPO Rategain is a $100M revenue with $20M in operating profits and $15M in profits after tax. When Rategain IPOed its market cap was $500M. Today they are valued at $1B in Indian public markets. As I always say, if you do $50M of revenue as a B2B SaaS company based out of India, Indian public markets will make you a Unicorn. You do not need private investors to make you a Unicorn. And public market Unicorns are real as they are vetted by millions of retail investors as well as institutions like HDFC and Kotak. I see Rategain being a $1B revenue company in the next 10 years, valued at $10B in Indian public markets. India will now see more such success stories which are built from India for the globe. India’s QIB (Qualified Institutional Buyers) and retail investors are hungry to buy B2B SaaS companies, built in India for the globe. This is the first wave where we are seeing B2B technology companies being built out of India and listed on Indian exchanges. The US has been seeing it for the last 40 years, and it accelerated with the listing of Salesforce. The next 25 years will be the Amrit Kaal in India, where we will see 100,000 new individuals working across 1000s of such companies create Rs 100 crores ($12M) of wealth individually.

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CHANNELIAM FUNDING TRACKER RECENT UPDATES 1.    Chosen® Raises USD 1.2 Mn in Seed Round 2.    Clodura.AI Raises USD 2 Mn from Bharat Innovation Fund 3.    Digital marketing automation #startup Maino.ai raises $1.8 Mn 4.    #Healthtech startup DocPlix raises Rs 1.2 Cr in bridge round 5.    Speciality chemicals startup Scimplify to raise $5 Mn 6.    Robinhood acquires Bitstamp in $200M deal to expand #crypto presence globally #funding #startups #businessnews #channeliam

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#SaaSeries2: Freshworks Q2 FY24 Results. Here are the key highlights: - Total customers in Q2 FY24 grew by 4% to 68.8K YOY. - Customers with ARR >USD 5K grew by 14% YOY, accounting for 90% of the ARR. - Customers with ARR > USD 50K grew by 30% YOY, making up 50% of the ARR. In terms of key metrics: - Revenue saw a 20% growth to 174 Mn in Q2 FY24, with the US market contributing 45%. The growth was also driven by acquisition of Device42 signaling the saturation in US market for key offerings. - Net Dollar Retention stands at 106%. - #ACV is at #USD10K, while the gross margin remains high at 85%. - #FCF USD 32.8 Mn in Q2 FY 24 Few observations: 1) The #Enterprise segment is the fastest-growing, maintaining its trend QoQ. 2) The #SMB segment, constituting ~10%, is critical for expansion despite being the least growing segment. Special focus areas include #GenAI solutions like #Freddycopilot and #Freshchat, with a 40% attachment rate, aimed at enhancing #agentproductivity. #SaaS #GenAI #Freshworks #SaaSUnicorn #AIagents #AIAssistants #conversationintelligence #venturecapital #privateequity #investments

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Quick commerce in India is the biggest consumption story in the world right now. Billions of 💰 are being invested by US and other VCs to change the way how millions of Indians shop 🇮🇳 . It is SUPER INTERESTING to see how this market is evolving literally under our eyes daily. The Morning Context has an excellent piece on it today. It got me thinking of 5 things. But first, the article makes the point that QC works in India because of high population densities, an unorganised and inefficient legacy supply chain and low rider cost 🏍 to average order value. Their article is posted in the comments section. Here's what came to my mind: 1. Viruses can permanently change consumer behaviour: Would the acceleration in QC adoption have happened if rapid digitisation hadn't been driven by the pandemic. High population densities, legacy supply chains and cheap labour existed pre-covid as well. 2. Did your family astrologer predict the QC future we are building: Predicting the future is always hard. More square footage was being built for malls under the hypothesis that India will transition from unorganised retail to a formal retail format. While for some formats this will continue, think white goods, for soft categories it looks like brick and mortar might be the most expensive and risky way to start. Wonder if in a country so into astrology any astrologers predicted the rise of QC because.... 3. Consultants and analysts were clueless: Entrepreneurs build the future, and consultants at best are slow followers. Go back and look at their reports from 10 years ago, no one was talking about the rise of QC. Everyone was on and on about how underpenetrated organised retail is and writing bullish stories on listed brick and mortar retail companies. 4. Will the marriage of fast fashion and quick commerce be all song and dance: What's in store here? Shorter supply chains like Shein, cheaper products like Primark, and quicker inventory turns via QC or risk of higher returns and inventory bloat. Time will tell. 5. FMCG companies should hire tutors to study disruption theory, but not from Byju's: Many of the MNC's don't have a playbook they can get from their global parent companies - QC is a uniquely Indian phenomenon. If their Indian listed businesses trade at 50-70x PE multiples, their future is pricing in so much growth and stability. "All of the future is in the price" as one of India's leading equity investors responded to my chat message. What will crack first, FMCG multiples or QC momentum? Last week I wrote about Zomato and Zepto, two leading QC companies in India and their world class execution even if they copied this model from abroad. The link to that post is also in the comments.

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As we reflect on H1 FY25, I am filled with immense gratitude and a deep sense of purpose for how far CureBay has come in transforming rural healthcare. Recording an 8x growth in GMV compared to the same period last year is not just a milestone—it highlights the growing trust in our work and the positive change we’re striving to bring to underserved communities. Here are a few moments that define this journey: - Serving approximately 55,000 patients each quarter, ensuring access to timely, quality care. - Enrolling over 18,000 members per quarter into subscription-based healthcare plans, making preventive care more accessible. - Reaching over 18 million people across Odisha and Chhattisgarh, with plans to serve 100 million rural residents across six states by 2025. - Achieving operational profitability in the Puri Circle of Odisha, demonstrating the impact and sustainability of our model. With over 1.4 million patients profiled, 20% active user conversion, and 14% preventive care adoption, CureBay’s eClinics, supported by trained Swasthya Mitras and powered by our AI ecosystem, are bringing targeted, data-driven care to even the most remote communities. Our work is far from over. With plans to expand into Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh, we remain committed to ensuring that no one is left behind in accessing quality healthcare. To everyone who has been a part of this journey—our patients, partners, and the incredible CureBay team—thank you for believing in our vision of a healthier, more inclusive India. Read the piece where CureBay is featured in ETHealthWorld: https://lnkd.in/g47_eXUx Together, we’re proving that rural healthcare isn’t just a challenge; it’s an opportunity to create lasting change. #HealthcareforAll #CureBay

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Indian venture market has exploded. Someone reported that there are 800+ funds/networks/syndicates/ accelerators active in Indian venture market now. Not sure, if that number is correct but if you are an early stage tech founder on your fundraise journey, chances are, you would meet hundreds of people. While majority of the fund houses are doing incredible work and shaping the ecosystem. There are certain kinds of investors you need to identify & avoid to save time and stay focused: Sharing from my personal experience, top 5 such cohorts to avoid and the takeaways for the founders: 1. Data collectors: At early stage, you don't have historical data to present. Your projections are just that, Projections. I wasted one whole week discussing with a prospective angel investor on why the CLTV to CAC ratio is x, and not y. Takeaway: Discuss high level strategic numbers only without going into the details. None of the projections would be accurate anyway when rubber hits the road. 2. Document collectors: Met few folks, who would watch from the fences and ask for n number of documents, data rooms, statements without sharing the purpose of the ask or even revealing their investment intent. Takeaway: It is supposed to be a bi-directional conversation. Say 'no' often, till the time, an official relationship is established. 3. Valuer (! investor): At early stage, valuation is a function of multiple parameters, the opportunity itself, the team, or anything else except steady cash flows, because you don't have much. I wasted another week with a prospective investor trying to justify valuation, had to shut down that conversation, after both of us started quoting Aswath Damodaran and his valuation principles. Takeaway: Too much content on the internet for both parties anyway. Shouldn't be a bone of contention at early stages. 4. Facilitators posing as investors: Met numerous people, who would go to any lengths to pose themselves as serious investors, even buying paid media articles. Only to reveal at the last: The success fee. Takeaway: Avoid facilitators until Series A 5. Brokers posing as market makers: People posing as market makers sharing tons of gyaan on LinkedIn but are actually deal brokers looking to make quick %. Personal experience: Two rounds of conversation happened and then out of blue, they added a third party in the mail trail, someone who facilitates mergers & acquisitions. There wasn't even a single instance in the past conversations where we indicated any such intent. Takeaway: Avoid name & shame in public but at least share within founder communities. #venture #fundraise #startups #investing

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{New pod 🎤} "𝐆𝐓𝐌 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐔𝐒-𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚 𝐁2𝐁 𝐒𝐚𝐚𝐒 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐩𝐬" This episode explores GTM strategies and learnings for US-India B2B SaaS startups. We cover everything from finding design partners in the US, scoping MVPs, figuring out what ICP to focus on, navigating the unique challenges of early PMF, GTM hiring in the US, and finally, working towards creating M&A exit options. Joining me for this discussion is Satya Ganni, an experienced SaaS founder and operator who has successfully built and sold five companies and led two acquisitions as a buyer. He is currently serving as CEO of Beamer and Userflow. Beamer is developing a cutting-edge product-led growth toolkit tailored to product leaders at SaaS and digital-first companies. They recently acquired Userflow to augment the business. TIME STAMPS: (01:15) Satya’s journey as a repeat US-India SaaS founder and operator (04:38) [Case Study: 0-to-1] Finding US design partners (11:09) Scoping B2B SaaS MVPs (15:42) [Case Study: $10k-100k ARR] Identifying which ICP to focus on - SMB vs mid-market vs enterprise (22:23) [Case Study: $100k-$1Mn ARR] Navigating the unique challenges of early PMF (27:18) [Case Study: $1-5Mn ARR] Building a US leadership team post-PMF (34:33) [Case Study: $5-20Mn ARR] Working towards creating M&A exit options  (38:46) Learning to become a proactive relationship builder YouTube - https://lnkd.in/guGQeBwA Spotify - https://lnkd.in/gAg7XeF4 Apple Podcasts - https://lnkd.in/gkYEDpED An Operator's Blog - https://lnkd.in/ggGbzSKY

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Gururam-based angel investment platform Inflection Point Ventures has announced a full exit from Jaipur-based D2C fashion brand Fashor with a 33% IRR. The firm said it has achieved 3.75X MoM (Money over money) from this exit within 54 months of investing in the startup. Read the full story here: 👇 https://lnkd.in/djhTrmvS #funding #investors #angelinvestors #d2c #fashion #entrepreneur #indianstartupnews

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Venture capital firm Peak XV Partners has about Rs 16,000 crore of “dry powder” ready for investment Just think of it, a lot of problems in the ecosystem will be solved So just be strong, focused and lean for now Sooner or later, things are going to change

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✨ Chet Kapoor ✨ is quite the Silicon Valley legend. Three-time founder and currently the CEO of DataStax his wisdom for founders is incredibly spot-on ✅ and timeless ⏰ ! In this most recent and probably best-ever episode of The Enterprise GTM podcast, Chet discusses what it takes to build enduring tech companies. Some 🎤 soundbites 🎤 from our conversation: 👩‍🏫 The quality of people influences the outcome of your startup the most. 🔥 You do not need smart people who sit around and pontificate. ☄ Momentum is everything. Never underestimate it. 🌟 Having complete clarity of thought at any given time is very important--who are you doing this for, and how will it change their lives? 🌈 One of the best ways to create a large company is to create a parade or join one. ☝ Know who you are. There's a high likelihood that the company will become more like who you are rather than who you want to be. 🛑 Don't make the mistake of hiring sales execs too soon. Be extra cautious about partnerships. 📣 Tune in to hear about what he has to say about AI startups getting started today, the future of the data layer, the evolving importance of data roles (data science, data engineering), and so much more! #devtool #founder #startup #data #ai https://lnkd.in/gW-58nvE

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Many critics and casual observers have been vocal about their concerns regarding the Indian tech ecosystem and recent IPOs. Currently, tech excluding ITES forms a very small portion of our $4 trillion stock market. While some of the criticism is valid, having a myopic view of the future of new-age tech companies and their contribution to a developed India overlooks the fact that if India is to become a developed economy by 2047, tech will be one of the biggest contributors. This is akin to missing the forest for the trees. Despite a few lackluster IPOs, the future of tech is bright, and this sector will be the shining star that lifts the nation and brings us closer to our goal of a $30 trillion economy. In this blog, Utkarsh Pande analyzes the dilemma of the IPO question for Indian startups and attempts to answer it. While the tech sector currently holds a small market share, its broader contributions to the national ecosystem, especially in areas like AI and skill development, underscore its critical importance. By understanding these nuances, we can better appreciate the sector's true value and its role in shaping a prosperous future for India. https://lnkd.in/d9sQMasQ

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