Christian Warning

Have a read on Handelsblatt Live: The Future is Food - The world's leading convenience retailers are discovering the millions of opportunities to sell coffee and snacks at petrol stations in Germany. The three international convenience retail heavyweights Alimentation Couche-Tard from Canada, 7-Eleven from the USA and Japan, and FEMSA from Mexico currently believe that petrol stations in Germany can also become the first port of call for coffee to go and food for now & later. Femsa were the first to recognize the growth potential of neighbourhood stores in Germany, which is why they bought the Swiss foodvenience experts Valora Group two years ago. In my view, an ideal foundation for growth in Europe and Germany in particular. Femsa operates almost 23,000 stores in Latin America and Europe and has a total of 392,000 employees. Valora recently presented The Kitchen by avec concept in Zurich to show what the new food & convenience success formula could look like in Germany. In order to really successfully develop the food service business at petrol stations, I believe that the entire customer experience at the petrol station must be improved. This includes not only a much more appealing “foody atmosphere” that also invites customers to linger, but above all the digitalization of the customer journey. In addition to location, location, location, it's now tech, tech, tech in retail. “Phygital” is the buzzword of the year at all international industry conferences. Phygital (physical plus digital) describes the merging of digital and physical experiences. Or as I like to say: “Tech and food&coffee to go are like right and left shoes”. Shifting the ordering and payment process to the customer not only has cost advantages, but the digital ordering channel also leads to higher transaction counts. It is therefore no wonder that order terminals have now become the standard in the fast food industry. Valora also uses order terminals in its new foodvenience format, which are now seen by customers as a kind of proof of food service expertise due to their massive distribution among fast food professionals. https://lnkd.in/ew6P2gvZ Wer nicht lesen will, muss nach Berlin kommen und kann 15% auf den Ticket-Preis sparen. Einfach bei der Anmeldung den Vorteilscode 77D2400202 eingeben. Tickets und weitere Infos gibt’s unter https://lnkd.in/e8BtUjJu   #HBHandel

52

2 Kommentare

Asian originated marketplaces on the rise in Germany, especially Temu 🇩🇪 Recent research indicates that 90 % German consumers are familiar with these platforms, and 43 % purchase items from them 🚢 🚚 32 % of German consumers bought products on Temu (+11 % YoY). Shein’s popularity also increased, 22 % of Germans have shopped there (+10 % YoY). The popularity of these marketplaces is attributed to their pricing, product range, and the entertainment they offer to German shoppers (according to the research). ❗Asian platforms score lower on quality, safety, and sustainability. Despite the growth and adoption of Asian marketplaces, 66 % of German consumers say they do not plan to use them in the future.. 🤷‍♂️ More here 👉 https://lnkd.in/eVNZGji8

8

3 Kommentare

What have in common the highest ROI M&A transactions in the FMCG industry over the last decade? Most of them share four key traits: i) Mid-sized assets ($0.5-6bn EV): with hence a proven business model yet with plenty of growth headroom ii) US-based assets: often positive payback on M&A guaranteed if scale-up successfully nationally. US-assets tend to travel better than assets acquired in other regions (although not an absolute guarantee of international success) iii) Mostly acquirers' with the right category expertise and/ or the right GTM capabilities: that is the case for all (except in some extent for GenMills with Blue). No 100% digital assets (e.g. DTC pure-players) are part of this list iv) The majority of those transactions were completed by frequent acquirers demonstrating one more time the importance to acquire frequently assets both to spread risk but also to develop M&A capabilities across the entire cycle (from due diligences through integration to value creation case delivery) To read our full perspective: FMCG CEOs: M&A Q1 2024 In Review - A New Bottom & Four Reinforcing Trends 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗽𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: https://lnkd.in/efD5RNWX 𝗧𝗼 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗸, 𝗽𝗹 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗻𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗧𝗼 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀, 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘂𝘀/ 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗙𝗠𝗖𝗚 𝗖𝗘𝗢𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿: https://lnkd.in/ea4gy65y #cpg #fmcg Nestlé AB InBev Procter & Gamble PepsiCo The Coca-Cola Company Unilever Mondelēz International Kraft Heinz L'Oréal Church & Dwight Co., Inc. Kellogg Company General Mills Blue Buffalo cerave Monster Energy Native RXBAR Danone The HEINEKEN Company Pernod Ricard Henkel Coty The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Beiersdorf Bel William Grant & Sons Campari Group Diageo Mars

64

2 Kommentare

In many ways, Europe is driving the discount store channel, especially with major players like Aldi and Lidl. But how are retailers like those affecting the U.S. market? In our blog post, we’ll cover the influence of European discount models on U.S. dollar stores. Plus, we’ll look at strategic initiatives discounters are taking to reach more shoppers and operate more efficiently. Be sure to check out our blog post to better understand where discount retail is headed! https://ow.ly/pG1450T2kBe

7

Handelskongress Germany 2024. Co-efficiency in retail: acting together cooperatively, responsibly and efficiently, this is the main topics of two interesting days. Germanys biggest and most important event for Retail. Let’s Rethink Retail. Together #HKD2024

91

3 Kommentare

Great thought piece from Ivo Petroff Sustainable retail growth is generated by efficiency. Discount concepts happen to apply highest levels of efficiency in their operational models. This is the core.

3

What do Target, ALDI USA, Amazon, Walgreens, Michaels Stores, IKEA, and Walmart all have in common? The answer is that they’ve all announced price cuts over the past few weeks. Why are they doing it? The Federal Reserve Board's latest Beige Book, which was released earlier this week, provides some clues. In summary, the Fed report notes that after a long period of hikes consumers are becoming increasingly price sensitive and more resistant to high prices. In response, people are cutting volumes which is becoming a threat to growth and, ultimately, to profits. In other words, there’s a view that retail volume growth is becoming more of a zero-sum game – the only way to grow is to maintain existing share and take some from others. And the easiest way to attempt to do this is to become more competitive on prices. Where it goes from here remains to be seen. The hope from consumers is that this will become a larger price war with players like Kroger entering the fray. That may make a meaningful difference to prices, even if it doesn’t take the cost of things back down to 2019 levels. It was great to chat with Whizy K. for her insightful Vox article on pricing dynamics. Link to the article is in the comments. #retail #retailnews #prices #inflation #consumers #pricecuts

74

5 Kommentare

Here are some interesting stories from the world of retail for Sunday, December 8: 📦 Returns in 2024 are expected to be about 17% of all goods sold, totaling $890 billion, according to a new report by the National Retail Federation. That’s up from 15% in 2023. 🚚 The International Brotherhood of Teamsters said it is giving Amazon a deadline of Dec. 15 to agree to bargaining dates to negotiate a union contract for its delivery drivers and warehouse workers. 👖 Tillys reported Q3 net sales of $143.4 million, down 13.8% due to a calendar shift affecting back-to-school sales. Comparable net sales fell 3.4% with physical store sales decreasing by 16%. 🛒 T & T Supermarket, Canada's largest Asian grocery store chain, has opened its first US ocation in Bellevue, Washington. T&T is part of Loblaw, which bought the retailer in 2009. 🍎 Dollar General’s efforts to bring fresh produce to locations will continue into the new year, but at a slower pace compared to years prior. It plans to begin selling fresh produce at approximately 300 more locations in 2025. 👕 FRÈRE, a bespoke ready-to-wear clothing brand, is making waves in the tech world with its luxury offerings. Launched in March, the brand is now set to open its first store in New York's SoHo. 🍸 In a crowd of canned cocktails, a screw top box is standing out. BeatBox’s alcoholic punch is a hit at musical festivals, and some public-health groups worry its colorful packaging appeals to underage drinkers. 🥗 Food Lion President Meg Ham will retire on May 2, 2025. Ham is leaving after more than a decade at the helm of Food Lion and more than 35 years with parent company Ahold Delhaize. 🤖 US retailers selling goods on the Alibaba platform have a new solution designed to streamline photography and design with AI. The company has launched Pic Copilot, an AI-driven e-commerce design tool. 💷 Adil Mehboob-Khan, the chief of Liberty., has expressed concerns over UK government policies that he believes are undermining the competitiveness of high street retailers. 🎌 Tokyo film maker Tokachi Tsuchiya has made a documentary DVD that depicts the harsh labor conditions of delivery staff at Amazon Japan. Tsuchiya spent about two years interviewing people who deliver products. 🧵 After the chairman of Uniqlo's parent company stated that the fashion retailer did not source fibre from Xinjiang, a Chinese industry association urged foreign businesses to adopt cotton produced in the province. 🇮🇪 The Irish retail sector is benefiting from an influx of foreign retailers. A total of €417m has been spent on retail property in the year to date. Shopping centres account for the largest proportion, at 43 per cent of sales. #retail #retailnews #economy #DailyRetailNews

19

One of the best nonfood business models out there. Blending assortment with once-off weekly specials towards an agile, flexible and different offering in each and every store. Almost exclusively offline!!! #strategy #retail #supermarkets #disruptiveinnovation #businessmodels #platforms

5

When you think about #BlackFriday, what do you think about? To be honest, I think about shivering in Walmart parking lots waiting for the doors to open and sharing a thermos of Dunkin Donuts coffee with other early birds so that I could better understand the day, the week and retail in general. And, my heart was racing because I couldn’t wait to get inside and see what was different than what our research predicted. For me, as a retail analyst, I think about how much the cadence of the season has changed, the importance of social media and marketing, supply chain as a competitive advantage, #GenAI and #innovation. Having completed the majority of 3Q #EPS, there were some key takeaways to consider as we think about winners and losers for the holiday season. And, the two things I do think this interview brushed over WAY TOO QUICKLY are 1) the impact of Temu and SHEIN this holiday season 2) the importance of physical stores to GenZ which is best illustrated by Abercrombie & Fitch Co. insane results with 70% of Hollister Co. customers shopping in store compared to only 40% at Abercrombie. The younger generation wants to make better decisions, decrease returns, and have more fun! So honored to join the always insightful Courtney Reagan and Stacey Widlitz on CNBC #PowerLunch to discuss the 5 most important days for retailers. More to come! #technology #digitalmarketing #creativity

67

9 Kommentare

A recent survey of retailers and consumer goods companies by Relex, and reported by Chain Store Age this April, 57% of these companies plan to invest in predictive and generative AI in the next three to five years. AI and machine learning was their 5th spending priority for technology. This supports our last post on the speed of AI adoption. The top 4 were: Enhancing e-commerce capabilities Improving inventory management Improving demand forecasting Leveraging data analytics. Respondents rated rapidly shifting customer demand, global events and disruptions, and inaccurate understanding of customer demand as their biggest threats to supply chain efficiency over the next three years. This is good news as retailers and CG companies have a lot of scope to improve e-commerce performance by exploiting omni-channel opportunities, which in turn will improve inventory management and aid more accurate demand forecasting. Well designed data analytics will also provide the insights needed to support the first three priorities. More guidance on how to do some of these things can be found in Martecs consumer goods WIKI. #Retail, #ConsumerGoods, #Ecommerce, #SupplyChain, #RetailTech

7

Mckinsey - European non grocery retail: Transition and transformation After an unpredictable several years, non grocery retailers in Europe are seeking to uncover pockets of growth. To succeed, they will need to navigate differences across markets and retail categories. Over the past five years, nongrocery retailers in Europe have faced twin challenges: navigating fierce macroeconomic headwinds and a heightened competitive landscape while catering to increasingly selective consumers. On the first count, inflation-adjusted sales have yet to return to 2019 levels in all top European markets, and generalist marketplaces and discounters have ignited a race to the bottom on price and quality. Balancing sustainability with growth poses a dilemma to retailers as margins continue to erode. #Mckinsey #Retailer #Europe #transition #transformation #market #sustainability #discounter #inflation

2

eCommerce & CPG Strategy: How marketing budgets have shifted in 7 years 🔥 Great visual by the Gartner team. Key Questions: (2) ⛄️ How has marketing budget resource allocation shifted in the last 7 years? ⛄️ Are there any consistent themes (spoiler alert — retail media)? By the numbers: (4) ⬇️ Martech: 29.2% to 23.8% ⬇️ Labor: 24.5% to 22.6% ⬆️ Paid media: 23.2% to 27.9% ⬇️ Agencies: 23.0% to 22.0% Stay in touch with our newsletter: https://lnkd.in/eMx4Zh2k Ways to reach us: Pattern® The CPG View The Retail eCommerce Club #ecommerce #digital #omnichannel #strategy #cmo #cdo #ceo #cro #leadership #retailecommerceclub #cpg #privateequity #playtowin

28

Getting closer to a European price list in FMCG Further to our post yesterday re the Mondelēz International historic EU fine of $366m, there is an increasing intent from EU member states to push for European-wide price list Time for FMCG companies to finely understand their exposure & actively reduce it Everything except easy considering the differences in RSP* (*retailers remain sole responsible for their price policy) across EU countries A hot topic for all European/ Global Head of sales, especially on categories with high cubic-value (but not only) 𝗧𝗼 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀, 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘂𝘀 & 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗙𝗠𝗖𝗚 𝗖𝗘𝗢 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿: https://lnkd.in/ea4gy65y #fmcg #cpg Nestlé The Coca-Cola Company PepsiCo AB InBev Unilever Procter & Gamble Mondelēz International Kraft Heinz L'Oréal Danone The HEINEKEN Company Bel Reckitt Kenvue Sanofi Haleon Pernod Ricard Diageo General Mills Campbell's JDE Peet's Carlsberg Group Ferrero Henkel https://lnkd.in/egDCXxKU

28

4 Kommentare

Walmart: exceeding expectations & winning consumers at both end of the spectrum (low- & high-end consumers) Walmart benefits from: 1) Its scale & low price to gain low-end consumers 2) The introduction of a high quality private label brand (BetterGoods) 2) Investments in tech & ecommerce (+21%! ecommerce growth this quarter - boosted by store pickup and delivery as well as its online marketplace, its subscription business Walmart+ grew double digit last quarter) to win convenience seeker consumers (that are also often high-end consumers) 3) Its continuous investment in stores renovation ($9bn for 1400 stores starting last year & expected to run up to 2025) 4) Its multi-format footprint with Sam's Club that continues to outperform other formats 5) The scale-up of its ad/ retail media business (with revenue up 24% globally with a high double digit margin contribution) Stock price was up 7% last week post release & up 13% YTD Impressive. Not good news for other grocery retailers that are often 'stuck in the middle' (with no scale advantage & without a differentiated enough positioning). As predicted, three types of players will prevail in US CPG retail: i) Hyper-scale grocers (Walmart) ii) Highly differentiated grocers (high-quality/ premium like Publix) iii) Value retailers (Dollar channel, Clubs) iv) Specialty (r)etailers on emotionally involving and/ or ecom friendly categories (On beauty: Ulta Beauty/ SEPHORA, on Pet: Chewy...) v) Hyper-scale Ecom players (Amazon) on ecom friendly categories that do not have to follow the grocery basket (everything except fresh & most of F&B) Tough times for the rest. Exciting times for CPG in the US Walmart results in details: Walmart Q1 FY25 (as they refer to it) results summary • Net sales: $ 161.5Bn; Y-o-Y growth: +6.0% • Adj. Operating Income%: 5.1%; +25bps vs Q1 FY 2024 (Q1 CL FY 2023) Results by divisions • Walmart US: o Net sales: $ 108.7Bn; Y-o-Y growth: +4.6% o Gross Profit: +46bps vs Q1 FY 2024 (Q1 CL FY 2023) o Adj. Operating Income%: 4.4%; +32.5bps vs Q1 FY 2024 (Q1 CL FY 2023) o Walmart advertising sale growth: +26% • Walmart International: o Net sales: $ 29.4Bn; Y-o-Y growth: +10.7% (growth led by Walmex, China and Flipkart) o Adj. Operating Income%: 5.0%; +52bps vs Q1 FY 2024 (Q1 CL FY 2023) • Sam’s club US: o Net sales: $ 21.4Bn; Y-o-Y growth: +4.6% o Operating Income%: 2.8%; +36bps vs Q1 FY 2024 (Q1 CL FY 2023) 𝗧𝗼 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀, 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘂𝘀/ 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗙𝗠𝗖𝗚 𝗖𝗘𝗢 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀𝗹𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿: https://lnkd.in/ea4gy65y #fmcg #ecommerce #cpg The Coca-Cola Company Nestlé Procter & Gamble AB InBev Kraft Heinz Unilever L'Oréal General Mills Campbell's The HEINEKEN Company Diageo Pernod Ricard Mondelēz International Danone Bel Henkel PepsiCo Coty Reckitt The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. https://lnkd.in/ePzNuAMf

36

Here are some deeper dive stories worth reading from the world of retail: 🏬 Demand softens, forcing some retailers to shut stores: Major retailers have announced 6,189 store closures so far this year, already outpacing last year’s total of 5,553. Chains are on track to close the highest number of stores in 2024 than any year since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic decimated the industry. Closures have picked up this year because the retail sector’s sugar high of 2021 and 2022 — when consumers were snapping up new couches, televisions and clothing — has ended. Companies have raised prices higher than many consumers can afford. Consumers have reached their breaking point and are pulling back on items they don’t absolutely need. 🔗 Link: https://bit.ly/3NEIVtI 🛒 Kmart has now shrunk to one outpost: The last Kmart on the U.S. mainland sits at the west end of a busy suburban Miami shopping center, quiet and largely ignored. All around it are thriving chain stores attracting steady streams of customers in sectors where the former box-store chain was once a major player: Marshalls, Hobby Lobby, PetSmart and Dollar Tree. But at this all-but-last outpost of a company once famed for its “Blue Light Specials,” only an occasional shopper pops in, mostly out of curiosity or nostalgia, then leaves after buying little or nothing. The last full-size Kmart in the 50 states closed last Sunday in Long Island, New York, making the Miami store — now a fraction of its former size — the last operating in the continental US. 🔗 Link: https://bit.ly/3YpUD0t 👕 Vinted moves beyond second hand clothing: Second-hand fashion site Vinted plans to expand beyond clothes into electronics, books, toys and video games as the profitable Lithuanian start-up seeks to capture more of the booming market for used goods. Chief executive Thomas Plantenga told the Financial Times that, just as it had done with second-hand clothes, Vinted wanted to focus on “unsexy” areas — such as efficient shipping and payments, as well as quality checks — for other used goods, starting with consumer electronics. 🔗 Link: https://bit.ly/4fhpSBu 🇯🇵 After Marie Kondo: the return of Japan’s joyful clutter: The world has long been in thrall to the idea that Japan is a haven of controlled, ordered minimalism. But the reality is much different – and far messier – than you might expect. Tokyo is the perfect setting for this exfoliation: it remains visually overwhelming – even cluttered. Outside, enormous animated advertisements compete for attention against a jigsaw puzzle of metal, glass, concrete and plastic. In the sprawling residential districts that radiate from the city centre, compact homes are packed in formations as dense as transistors on a semiconductor chip, while confusing geometries of power lines spiderweb the skies above. 🔗 Link: https://bit.ly/4fn5YF5 #retail #retailnews #economy #RetailDeepDive 

24

1 Kommentar

With regards to our retail market, we often take it as granted that online retail is dominated by the Big3 marketplaces - ergo, the opportunity for market entry is gone. But is that true? The example of another market once dominated by the big2 - Ali and JD - shows otherwise. A very interesting reading from Oliver Wyman.

4

Danilo Zatta, PhD, MBA, author of The Pricing Model Revolution and 10 Rules of Highly Effective Pricing, with his keynote on "How to Act in Price Wars." Here in Germany: LIDL vs. Ikea - the only winners are customers (temporarily). Battles over market share with relatively small changes can lead to price wars. #pricingstrategy #business #pricewar #profitability #pricing #revenuemanagement

49

3 Kommentare