Emily Sinnott

In my new Project Syndicate op-ed, I propose an alternative solution for #LAC or any country: national autonomous institutions to design & implement long-term policies in infrastructure, pensions & education. Let's overcome political short-termism. Read the full commentary for free!

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This week I met with Mikko Ollikainen, the Head of the Adaptation Fund, to discuss global #climate #adaptation finance, which continues to lag well behind what is needed. 🔹Of the USD 1.27tn spent on #climate finance globally in 2021/2022 $63bn went to adaptation compared to US$ 1.15tn on #mitigation. For every 18 dollars spent on mitigation, just 1 dollar is spent on adaptation. 🔹Only USD 7 bn (11% of all adaptation finance) went to #Agriculture, #Forestry, and Other #Land Use (#AFOLU) a critical and vulnerable sector with wide ranging adaptation needs. In addition, #smallscale #agrifood systems receive only 0.8% of climate finance (USD 5.53 billion in 2019/2020). This is unfair and dangerous. 🔹IFAD has built expertise and experience since more than a decade in mainstreaming climate change adaptation in its investments, through its own #adaptation for smallholder agriculture programme (ASAP), through its 45% climate finance investment target (using MDB methodology) in its projects and by scaling up its partnerships with the climate funds (Global Environment Facility,Adaptation Fund and Green Climate Fund). 🔹The IFAD portfolio with the Adaptation Fund has grown significantly over the past four years, expanding to 18 projects and the pipeline has grown in the last year, now comprising of 20 projects with a total value of US$177 M, spanning all regions.

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Is #NorthMacedonia ready? Exploring fiscal strategies for climate resilience. Check this blog: https://lnkd.in/ejsMyxGh with Joe Pryor and Pavlina Zdraveva. This builds on #NorthMacedonia Climate Public Finance Review, among the first climate-oriented public finance reviews across the World Bank that was disseminated yesterday in Skopje. https://lnkd.in/eeXJN77D The report argues that #carbon_pricing plays a crucial role in managing these risks, incentivizing #decarbonization and leveraging funding for #just_transition and #green_innovation.

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The #poverty rate is a crucial indicator for monitoring the development of our countries and for the design and evaluation of public policies. However, official poverty rates are derived from household surveys that often have limited frequency, encounter problems associated with fieldwork limitations, and experience substantial delays in processing and publication. To address this challenge, nowcasting techniques offer an innovative way to forecast poverty. This approach empowers countries with timely and reliable data, facilitating well-informed policy decisions based on up-to-date indicators. It could support policy decision-making in countries, enabling a timely response that improves the quality of life for hundreds of thousands of people in the region. Thanks to the support of the Inter-American Development Bank, #CentralAmerica, #Panama, and the #DominicanRepublic now have a new tool that utilizes nowcasting techniques to forecast poverty. Learn more in our recent blog: https://lnkd.in/enDSubyR Tomás Bermúdez Alejandra Fleitas Francisco Javier Urra Shirley Malespín Shirley Cañete María José Jarquín Margarita Libby Katharina Falkner-Olmedo Rocio Medina-Bolivar Lucia Martin, Melanie Jiménez Montero Carlos Eggers Prieto, Álvaro Salamanca Laucel Muñoz  

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In this new ADB Economics Working Paper, David de Padua, Irfan A. Qureshi, PhD, Kiyoshi Taniguchi, and I investigate the macroeconomic drivers of remittances in Pakistan. Remittances account for approximately 10% of GDP in Pakistan, so a better understanding of their macro drivers can inform development and other policies. Our analysis relies on Bayesian vector autoregression methods and a database of monthly data on bilateral remittances between Pakistan and its main remittance-sending countries over 2003–2021. We find that economic activity, inflation, equity markets, and interest rates—both in Pakistan and migrants’ host countries—play significant roles and their contributions vary over time. ADB Publications #remittances

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We had a stimulating discussion on the "Financial implications of Global Fragmentation" at the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research (HKIMR) today. Financial fragmentation bears stability risks. The euro area appears resilient, but geopolitical factors lead to financial dis-integration. Euro area countries experience debt and equity investment outflows in times of crisis. This risk needs to be addressed through a more integrated single market and financial risk-sharing. I very much enjoyed the seminar and thank the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research (HKIMR), and particularly Hongyi Chen, and Hong Kong Academy of Finance (AoF) for the great hospitality. Kudos to Gergely Hudecz, Yasin Mimir and Alexandre Lauwers for the impressive empirical work, which I presented in this seminar. 🙏 #ESMeuro ESM - European Stability Mechanism #economics #finance #globalization

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BRINGING NATURE CLOSER TO ECONOMICS By valuing nature and incorporating it into our daily decision-making, we can pave the way towards a sustainable and just world. Unfortunately, the pandemic has set us back a decade in our efforts to alleviate poverty and economic inequality. As we work towards progress on the Sustainable Development Goals, it's crucial to monitor the environmental dimension and develop a statistical infrastructure for inclusive wealth statistics capturing natural capital. This will allow us to explicitly define the recovery from COVID-19 in terms of sustainable development. Furthermore, by broadening our assets and production boundary as envisioned in the IWI, we can better account for and monetize global public goods like the ocean and atmosphere. We must focus on the relationship between human well-being and the natural world, particularly as natural capital is reduced in an increasingly urbanized and capital-intensive economy. This includes recognizing the physical, emotional, and psychological benefits of nature, as well as the existence values of nature that support and reinforce produced capital. I had the opportunity to discuss these ideas with several Member States through intense bilateral during UNFF19 in New York. Let's continue to prioritize the environment and work towards a sustainable future. #sustainability #SDGs #environment #naturalcapital #inclusivewealthstatistics

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#MDBs need more capital to be more useful to their member states. Regional MDBs are useful to their member states - each in its own unique way. They provide targeted finance for development projects, technical assistance, applied research to their shareholders, etc. They are close to their countries and understand very well what is needed at this very moment. To be even more useful, they need capital. #Capital is a fuel for banks. Based on each dollar provided by governments, development banks invest 3 to 4 dollars into their economies. So it is good development economics.  In this joint Policy Brief, we explore various ways how MDBs, in particular smaller ones, can raise capital so that their existing shareholders remain happy. Available options include:  (1) increasing existing shareholders’ capital; (2) membership expansion by attracting regional and (3) non-regional countries; (4) institutional investors; and (5) other MDBs; as well as (6) non-conventional methods that have yet to be tested in practice (e.g., channeling the IMF’s special drawing rights to MDBs). My counterpart at FONPLATA, its Vice President for Strategic Development Oscar Llamosas, reflected: “Acknowledging that, while facing similar challenges, multilateral development banks have diverse characteristics, is crucial to advancing the goal of making not only each of them but the entire international financial architecture bigger, better and more effective."

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International Monetary Fund's latest message to G20 Brasil 2024 on financing the green transition: "The IMF is doing its part through our lending, policy advice, capacity development, and #data initiatives. On lending, our new instrument, the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), helps vulnerable countries to build resilience to climate change. We have approved 20 RSFs with total commitments of more than $9.3 billion, of which $2.5 billion has already been disbursed. On policy advice, we are helping countries improve macroeconomic stability and strengthen policy frameworks. We have also started incorporating #climate risk in our Financial Sector Assessment Programs (FSAPs). Our capacity development is helping countries through training and policy diagnostics. On data, we are contributing to international efforts to strengthen the availability, reliability and comparability of climate data. Finally, I welcome efforts to promote the use of climate resilient #debt clauses (CRDCs), which strengthen the resilience of borrowing countries and may act as a steppingstone for a broader adoption of wider state-contingent debt instruments" https://lnkd.in/ggB-qkc9

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What can the #G20 do to help us work towards a global nature-positive economy?  In this policy brief, we argue that the G20 should support reforms to the international financial architecture to build a nature-positive economy. These reforms must change the economic rules of the game at the global level to shift financial flows and relieve fiscal space for nature-rich countries to fund and incentivise the protection and restoration of nature.  Our brief focuses on how the G20 can contribute to reforms in the role of: ·      Multilateral development banks as a source of long-term, affordable financing for developing countries; ·      Debt solutions, given the ongoing debt crisis that is restricting countries from being able to prioritise nature. For more on building a global nature-positive economy, keep an eye out for @WWF’s Global Roadmap for a Nature-Positive Economy, which will be published just before CBD #COP16 in October. Arimbi Wahono Tarsicio Granizo Vassilis Gkoumas WWF-UK Shared Planet https://lnkd.in/ewUgXyTz

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As Week 2 of the UN Climate talks in Bonn begins, @FadhelKaboub calls for #ClimateFinance to be provided to the Global South as climate reparations through debt cancellation and grants, not as debt restructuring and loans.

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Subsidies and presidential approval ratings: What's the geopolitical connection using the ICRG data and risk methodology? In this recent IMF Working Paper, the authors consider the impact of fossil fuel subsidy removal on presidential popularity using difference-indifference approaches and a stylized theoretical model. Analyzing macro level data for two subsidy removal events in Mexico and Bolivia in the early 2010s, the found evidence of a negative impact on presidential approval. The theoretical probabilistic voting model used – and which employs our ICRG data – predicts that the decline in popularity is driven by high income groups if subsidies are regressive, and that lack of trust in the government lowers popularity of the removal in all income groups. We confirm these predictions using micro level data for the Mexican subsidy removal event. Our data drives. The PRS Group www.PRSGroup.com www.christophermckee.net (https://lnkd.in/eKW5XAPK) #lula #argentina #bolivia #mexico #ai #emergingmarkets #investmentrisk #approvalratings #president #southkorea #Unitedhealthcare #syria #datanalytics #geopoliticalrisk #geopolitics #politicalrisk

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The G20 Brasil 2024 Leaders’ Declaration was released today. Here are my thoughts. It is great to see a strong commitment to sustainable, resilient & inclusive growth in the Declaration - but there are critical gaps. As the priorities of the South African G20 Presidency take shape the ambition to both deliver on and extend beyond these commitments should be high. First, it’s disappointing that water is missing from the #G20 Declaration. The final report of the Global Commission on the Economics of Water (which I co-chaired with Johan Rockström, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala) argues that the hydrological cycle is a global common good, with water cutting across all SDGs. If we want to win the “fight against hunger and poverty” then water must be at the centre of an economy-wide transformation, not siloed under WASH. Read our report here: https://lnkd.in/epaqcMn5 Second, while the #G20 Declaration calls for urgent, structural, “whole-of-economy” change to accelerate climate action in line with Paris Agreement climate goals, it doesn’t recognise the vital role that green industrial strategy must play in achieving them. Nor the need for changes to global governance (including through WTO reform) to enable all countries to benefit from green growth. Read the final report of the Group of Experts to the #G20 TF-CLIMA that I co-chaired with Vera Songwe, which makes clear recommendations on how both industrial and financial strategies can be oriented around NDCs: https://lnkd.in/e2vCvfQJ Third, while the G20 Declaration underlines that green growth will not be possible without changes to the international financial architecture, it doesn’t go far enough. Access to affordable green finance must be scaled up without increasing debt burdens for low- and middle-income countries, the strategies of multilateral and national development banks should be aligned around NDC & SDG goals, and within their mandates central banks & regulators should better account for climate risks. Read my op ed in Project Syndicate with Vera Songwe: https://lnkd.in/eeS63iXc You can read the full G20 Declaration here: https://lnkd.in/e5Ce3Ham

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Here’s my #1week1minute ✔EIB Strategic Roadmap and 8 key priorities endorsed by EU Ministers at #ECOFIN ✔EU-Ukraine Export Credit Guarantee ✔New projects approved by European Investment Bank (EIB) and European Investment Fund (EIF) Boards ✔NextGenerationEU partnership with Spain ✔Good meeting with Christine Lagarde on Capital Markets Union

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Antonio Guterres once again calls for reform of the global financial architecture, including MDB reform with reference to utilizing "callable capital" and for flexibility to be injected into the private creditor relationship. On the same day that Ghana is restricted from restructuring by the IMF, with Ghana already in default. This is precisely why understanding the underlying dynamics of the credit rating agencies is all important now - they sit at the heart of everything. MDBs need to scale up? CRAs have to approve. Private creditors need to be more flexible? CRAs have to approve or get out of the way. Vulnerable countries need to be able to restructure quickly and effectively? CRAs need to approve. It is the same story time and time again. https://lnkd.in/e5Rb4CTq The Credit Rating Research Initiative #creditratings #globalfinancialarchitecture #Ghana

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"Bidenomics" has sparked renewed interest in industrial strategy around the world. There is a lot to learn from it - and changes that could strengthen it in future, bringing policy tools into sharper alignment with climate and labour goals. Following a fascinating set of meetings with leaders in Washington who have helped to shape US industrial strategy - including from the The White House, U.S. Department of Commerce, and AFL-CIO - Prof Mariana Mazzucato and I wrote a piece for Foreign Affairs Magazine. Read our reflections here: https://lnkd.in/gd8rN_64

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In our latest EBRD piece with Zsoka Koczan and Maxim Chupilkin we look at 20 years of EU membership of 8 economies that joined in 2004. Their income per capita grew by extra 14% of Germany’s over these years – compared to similar emerging markets elsewhere shorturl.at/uwKRT

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CBAM will have an impact on developing countries. National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) and FEPS Europe policy study explores the issue in detail. https://lnkd.in/gVeuaGEq

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🚨 New report out together with Carsten Brzeski on the eurozone labour market. Given weak economic performance, it has been unusually heated. We argue that the luxury of labour hoarding is coming to an end in the eurozone as corporate profits dwindle. We expect this to come with easing wage growth, a tick up in unemployment and higher bankruptcies. For the ECB, this is set to be a key driver for easing rates. Read all about it here: https://lnkd.in/ec6967yr Or in this excellent article in Dutch by Arend Clahsen in FD: https://lnkd.in/ezfTnyET

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