Dr Christopher McKee

Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Republic of Congo’s Long-Term Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘Restricted Default’ (RD) from ‘CCC+’ following the execution of an exchange of local-currency bonds. In a rating note, Fitch expressed belief that the exchange constituted a default event as outlined in its Sovereign Rating Criteria published 24 October 2024. https://lnkd.in/epiC2iUw #Congo #insideAfrica

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The IMF & World Banks hosted their annual meeting in Washington DC last week, and members from Marathon Asset Management’s Emerging Markets team were in attendance along with multilateral development bank officials, Fed officials, US Treasury officials, Finance Ministers from most EM counties, academia, economists, national security advisors, pollsters, institutional investors, and investment bankers. Here is a summary of Ana Jelenkovic’s notes that we shared with our clients: - Strong consensus with no US or global recession forecasted for 2025 (survey of attendee: 20% probability) - EM growth forecast: +4% in 2025 (E)-- see table below - Interest Rates expected to be higher for longer with greater volatility as fiscal outlook leading to larger deficits in U.S. and DM - Debt-to-GDP ratios are favorable as EM sovereigns are rewarded with credit rating upgrades at a faster clip - Select restructuring stories were discussed, while now resolved, noteworthy reflection by the IMF for the need to expedite in the future - IMF emphasized its strongly committed to governments that are committed to improving fiscal and external balance sheets - China’s recent monetary, regulatory, and fiscal measures are a sign of shifting policy priorities, but long-term measures remain highly uncertain - US Election and Trump 2.0 dominated discussion by panel experts who focused on tax, tariffs, and foreign policy (survey of attendees expected a small margin of victory for Trump) - Trump 2.0 is better for stock market, expected to result in higher rates, and stronger dollar as seen in market moves Bottom line: 2025 should be a good year for EM fundamentals. Russia/Ukraine, Middle East Conflict, China-Tiawan are the trouble spots, but growth, development and capital flows are highly favorable in most regions. As a realist and optimist, I have faith that certain conflicts will be resolved in the coming year. Marathon is actively deploying capital in EM with our strong dedicated team.

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It has been busy in critical minerals world. The United Nations Climate Week, the London Metal Exchange, and the U.S. Department of State-led Minerals Securities Partnership Forum all concluded their seminal events last week. Speakers and government officials called to (1) accelerate the the energy transition and (2) underscored the importance of responsible sourcing of critical minerals. Yet, there was little to no mention or media coverage of the Department of Labor's "2024 List of Goods Produced by Child Labor or Forced Labor" report. This annual report provides a stock take on how countries are tracking and the trends around the world. Unfortunately, the report reveals two unsettling, but perhaps unsurprising facts. First, this year's "list includes 12 critical minerals and materials...essential to the green energy transition, advanced computing, and national security, but many are produced in countries by child labor, forced labor or forced child labor." Second, China is the central culprit either directly or indirectly in many of these cases. The report states that China represented 12 new additions, "where state-sponsored forced labor linked to the Xinjiang Uyghur autonomous region continues to impact major supply chains." The report details child and forced labor in multiple countries producing the critical minerals that power the clean energy transition. The PRC has exported its predatory practices around the world. The report notes the prevalence of child and forced labor in Indonesian nickel, Zambian manganese, and DRC copper, among others - where China holds controling interests. In salons, think tanks, and opinion pages aroud the world, there is considerable hand wringing about the U.S. election and implications for climate and clean energy policies. It is time for the conversation to focus on, or in the least, to meaningfully consider the lives of the most vulnerable among us. In 2021, I wrote in the Financial Times that countries should pursue climate change policies to avoid harm over the horizon, but it was imperitive that free nations take action to remedy the evils today. According to the Department of Labor's report, we are failing to do so. The lack of media converage or attention is even worse. We must do better. https://lnkd.in/e9ewHRy https://lnkd.in/ev8kxMzq CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program Atlantic Council Global Energy Center Morgan Bazilian Gracelin Baskaran, PhD Rohitesh Dhawan Landon Derentz Harry Dempsey Javier Blas Jack FarchyErnest Scheyder Annie Lee Brian Sullivan

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Oil eases despite Iran attacks on Israel; Asian bourses rattled Oil prices eased on Monday as Iran’s attacks on Israel over the weekend were largely priced in by the market, according to analysts, but Asian equities tumbled amid concerns over recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. #ICIS #oil #Iran #Israel #KOSPI #ING #crudeoil #IEA #OPEC https://bit.ly/4cTGi2D

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"In contrast, non-OPEC production, particularly from countries like the U.S., Canada, and Brazil, remains robust, adding to the global supply glut. The increased production from Libya, which had experienced outages earlier in the year, has also weighed on the market. Recent geopolitical tensions, which previously led to price spikes, no longer seem to have the same effect on sustaining higher oil prices. In fact, these events are now viewed as opportunities for short-sellers, further pressuring the market." Oil prices drop into the $60 range. Here's why they could go even lower 👇 https://lnkd.in/epwYuxFK Written by Syed Muhammad Osama Rizvi and published on EklipX Research #oiltrading #OOTT #oil #brent #wti #economy

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Sovereign wealth funds inject $30 bln into mining over two years: FT Mining Summit Fastmarkets By Julienne Raboca September 26, 2024 Industry leaders at the FT Mining Summit in London on Thursday September 26 revealed a surge in state-backed investment amid the critical minerals race, highlighting a shift in capital sources for the mining sector. Hassan Morsy, partner and managing director at AlixPartners, said: "Over the last two years, there's an estimated $30 billion that has been put in from sovereign wealth funds in mining… a huge jump from 2021, which is really good." This influx of sovereign capital comes as the mining industry faces challenges in attracting traditional investment. Institutional shareholders have reduced their exposure to the sector due to concerns over environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks, geopolitical volatility and the cyclical nature of commodity markets, according to speakers on the panel titled “Finance and investment - Where is the capital?” Alex Pickard, executive vice-president of corporate development and investor relations at Ivanhoe Mines, highlighted the lack of investment in early-stage projects. "Capital is very selective. It wants to go into things at the end of the pipe, where the outcome is very certain," he said. "Not enough capital is going into the exploration stage and the development stage to actually fill out this project pipeline." Olivia Markham, managing director and portfolio manager at BlackRock, pointed out that government involvement extends beyond sovereign wealth funds: "We're seeing governments providing more capital. You know, you see from the United States, Canada, Australia, they've all got funding schemes linked to critical minerals or infrastructure, etc. So that's an encouraging thing to see." The panel also discussed the growing importance of royalty and streaming companies in mining finance. Marc Bishop Lafleche, chief executive officer of Ecora, said: "If you look at the market capitalization of our sector, comparing five years ago to 20 years ago, it has grown by orders of magnitude." Geopolitical tensions are reshaping investment patterns in the sector. "This government leverage that sovereign wealth funds may carry is going to be hugely valuable for a lot of investors,” Morsy said. “Whether it's major mining companies or even smaller mining companies… there is no doubt you've heard the theme over the last two hours on the panels. The permitting issues are real." The discussion also touched on the potential for downstream consumers to invest in upstream mining projects, though this trend has not materialized as expected. Subscribers can access the full story and data at this link: https://fmrkts.com/3XY4jjI #steel #mining #SovereignWealthFund #FinancialTimes #AlixPartners

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Very interesting comments made in the US Senate by John Barrasso, Senator for Wyoming re the US ban on Russian uranium. “…Russia’s choke hold on America's uranium supply is coming to an end.… America is finally starting to take back our nuclear energy security as well as our energy future.” More detail on the Senator’s comments is available at https://lnkd.in/gn-rMazF but this line struck me as underlining the strength of US intent  “…Putin now controls 50% of the world’s enrichment capacity. Today, he supplies 24% of America’s enriched uranium. Putin’s control is so vast that currently today the equivalent of one out of 20 homes in America is powered by uranium enriched by Russia!” Given Peninsula Energy Limited (PEN.ASX) Lance Project is based in Wyoming this can only be good news for the company as it readies for re-start in late 2024. It sounds like the US is serious about banning Russian uranium and developing its own nuclear enrichment industry. US utility companies have had 2.5 years to prepare for this transition and once the ban is signed by President Biden it will allow the Department of Energy to spend up to $2.72 billion to support domestic production of LEU and high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), which is a more concentrated fuel intended for use in prospective advanced reactors. https://lnkd.in/gbCeq54k That is good news for another ASX company, technology meets nuclear energy play Silex Systems Limited Systems that is establishing the Paducah Laser Enrichment Facility (PLEF) for production of natural grade uranium hexafluoride (UF6). The PLEF opportunity is underpinned by the 2016 agreement between GLE and the DOE, which, through the acquisition of over 200,000 metric tonnes of depleted tails owned by the DOE, provides the feedstock for the production of natural UF6 at a planned rate equivalent to the production of around 5 million pounds of uranium a year for approximately 30 years. A lot happening in nuclear energy globally, lets hope we don’t get left behind by stunted debate and poor leadership in Australia. #nuclearenergy #energytransition #decarbonisation

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Interesting column by Scott Bessent, the next US Treasury Secretary. Bessent argues that globalisation has not led to the assumed benefits for the US workforce, has weakened America's ‘defence industrial base’, has exacerbated inequality in the US and has contributed to the consolidation of the CCP's power. The reason for this (in Bessent's view) disappointing outcome is that "the adjustment process that was necessary to achieve Ricardian comparative advantage has largely not materialized", largely due to "deliberate policy choices by foreign governments, especially China", but also friendly nations such as Japan, South Korea and Germany. Whilst this view has a kernel of truth, I would argue that Bessent misunderstands Ricardo's theory to a certain extent. The fact that different sectors flourish in the US and China is evidence that Ricardo specialization has taken place. If the result (moving production abroad) is unacceptable, e.g. for national security reasons, then that is a different story that has nothing to do with Ricardo. Bessent is even more interesting from a foreign policy perspective. He basically confirms that the US foreign policy approach over the last 40 years has failed. In the early 1980s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the main foreign policy task of the US was to create a unipolar world according to rules set by the US. The ideological underpinning was provided by Fukuyama, who claimed that there was no longer a competing ideology to the US-dominated ‘liberal order’, as globally all people were basically just consumers who cared about the latest VCR and other amenities. Bessent makes it clear that the US is now aware that it is operating in a fragmented multipolar world in which the US and its allies face China, Russia and other actors. Of course, the US will be the most powerful player in such a world, but this world will not be a unipolar world, and the US will contribute to its fragmentation. According to Bessent, “the cost to remaining outside the [US-dominated, PS] perimeter would be high”. But it is not entirely clear to me whether this will convince the non-aligned countries. So far, they have seen in recent years that the costs can be quite high even for the friends of the US. Europe is a case in point. 

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#FCM First Class Metals PLC LSE:FCM FRA:WN9 - Operations update - Coco East and OnGold Earn-in -Field work has commenced on the Coco East property, base metal potential -The Earn-in deal with OnGold Invest Corp ("OnGold") has been renegotiated, FCM has now acquired 100% of the property. Marc J. S. CEO Commented: "In true FCM fashion we are endeavouring to put as much of the available funds 'into-the-ground', though gold prices are soaring the Coco East property has real potential for base metals. However, the very anomalous gold in lake sediment samples on the OnGold property constitute a significant target which too demands follow-up when appropriate.' https://lnkd.in/dJeKmSf3 #gold #invest #mineral #pyrite #quartz

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ITA’s final determination on dumping and CV duties for Russian ferrosilicon and critical circumstances ruling, part 1 ON NOVEMBER 21, 2024 BY ALANPATRICKRYAN In today’s (Nov. 21, 2024) Federal Register the Commerce Dept.’s ITA reaffirmed the dumping and countervailing duties against imports of Russian ferrosilicon. On November 8, 2024, in accordance with section 735(d) of the Act, the ITC published in the Federal Register its affirmative final injury determination in these investigations in which it found that an industry in the United States is materially injured by reason of imports of ferrosilicon from Russia. In addition, the ITC found that critical circumstances do not exist with regard to imports from Russia. With respect to the ITC’s negative critical circumstances determination on imports of ferrosilicon from Russia, we will instruct CBP to lift the suspension of liquidation and to refund all cash deposits for estimated antidumping duties with respect to entries of the subject merchandise entered, or withdrawn from warehouse, for consumption on or after March 30, 2024 (i.e., 90 days prior to the date of the publication of the AD Preliminary Determination), but before June 28, 2024, the date of publication of the AD Preliminary Determination. Suspension of Liquidation and Cash Deposits – AD Commerce intends to instruct CBP to reinstitute the suspension of liquidation of ferrosilicon from Russia, effective on the date of publication of the ITC Final Determination in the Federal Register, and to assess, upon further instruction by Commerce, antidumping duties on each entry of subject merchandise based on the estimated weighted-average dumping margins indicated in the table below. These instructions suspending liquidation will remain in effect until further notice. Commerce also intends to instruct CBP to require cash deposits equal to the estimated weighted-average dumping margins indicated in the table below. Accordingly, effective on the date of publication in the Federal Register of the notice of the ITC’s final affirmative injury determination, CBP will require, at the same time as importers would normally deposit estimated customs duties on this subject merchandise, a cash deposit equal to the rates listed in the table below. The Russia wide estimated anti dumping margin is 283.27%. Section 733(d) of the Act states that suspension of liquidation pursuant to an affirmative preliminary determination may not remain in effect for more than four months, except where exporters representing a significant proportion of exports of the subject merchandise request that Commerce extend the four-month period to no more than six months. Commerce published the AD Preliminary Determination on June 28, 2024.

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Share of gold in FX reserves jumping steadily. This is true for many countries. This has to do with waning confidence in USD. What if hard earned forex is impounded just like it was done with Russia in case any country happens to be on the wrong side of the U S? De-dollarisation is far. But we will definitely see many bilateral trade deals invoiced in local currencies to bypass USD which got a huge impetus after the Russia Ukraine war.

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Highly recommend reading this report. It does an excellent job of highlighting the many issues with getting oil and gas companies to pay for their cleanup (aka asset retirement obligations.) In California they oil industry doesn't have enough oil left in the ground to pay for its cleanup. In Colorado they do, but it is only a few companies who own most of it and they aren't going to share the profits. So Colorado is also unlikely to get the industry to pay. Which means, the public will have to pay. As I've been arguing for a while, this is the plan for the oil industry. Take the profits and then walk away. As and this report points out so well, the state that was supposed to be doing the best job of this, just spent 6 years designing and implementing new regulations to address this issue and somehow after all of that are in worse financial shape than before.

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Amos Hochstein is spearheading unprecedented interventions by the US government in metals markets. Ten years ago I'd argue the White House had almost zero contact with mining companies. Today, via Amos, the US is looking for every opportunity to get leverage in mining and processing - meeting with companies, offering finance, proposing deals, tinkering with sanctions - all in the hope of shifting the flow of critical minerals away from China and towards US-friendly companies...and the DRC is right at the center of things. https://on.ft.com/3W3KTbY

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#FCM First Class Metals PLC LSE:FCM FRA:WN9 - Suspension of Listing -The Company will continue to work closely with RPG to ensure that the audited results for the year ended 31 December 2023 are published ASAP. -As a result of this delay, the Company's shares will be temporarily suspended with effect from 1 May 2024. Read- https://lnkd.in/dTByYrdk #shares #audit #metals #resources #smallcap

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Please find enclosed #MyStratWeekly by Ostrum Asset Management. This week's piece focuses on the main policy differences beween the candidates to the US presidential elections Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Zouhoure Bousbih Aline Goupil-Raguénès #USelections #tariffs #tradepolicy #taxpolicy #healthcarepolicy #NATO

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Russia-Ukraine War nears end-game: Implications for emerging markets, global commodities and geopolitics Trump victory in US, Scholz coalition collapse in Germany, lukewarm EU-Ukraine summit all in the last week suggest an end-game is nearing For Eastern Europe and former CIS does Ukraine reconstruction opportunity outweigh emboldened Russia risk? More globally do food and fuel prices fall, do US allies spend more on military, is China more likely to invade Taiwan? I explore these questions more in my full report on Tellimer, linked in the comment below. #russiaukrainewar #emergingmarkets #foodprices #oilprice #geopolitics

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[This Changes Everything] The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah over the weekend is a game changer for the conflict between Israel and the various Iranian proxies. The tail risk of regional war is a tail risk no longer, but #energy #markets are failing to price in any #risk premia. Meanwhile, over in #Japan we have a new Prime Minister. This prompted #USDJPY to trade in a 4 big-figure range on Friday as markets rejoiced that a dove might be appointed, before learning that the new Premier will be Shigeru Ishiba, an #InterestRates and defence hawk. While Japanese #FX and #equities traders lick their wounds, money continues to pile into #China markets after the #PBOC and Chinese Politburo finally wheeled out the stimulus bazooka last week. But is the move overdone? In today's Global Daily we cover all of these themes and look ahead to the week in markets. You can read it, here 👇 #economy #inflation #rates #ecb #Fed #oil

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