The Best NFL Bets for Week 11: Blessed by the Schedule Gods

There’s a strong case to be made that Week 11 is the best scheduled slate of football this NFL season. The schedule gods have blessed fans with four high-profile and high-leverage matchups between conference or division rivals that will help shape the playoff picture and define the narratives for regular-season awards. Most importantly, the four marquee games are spread out across four different viewing windows, beginning with Thursday Night Football in Philadelphia.

The fantastic four:

1. Washington (7-3) and Philadelphia (7-2) will battle on Thursday for the first of their two meetings in the stretch run, with the winner claiming first place in the NFC East and the no. 2 seed in the NFC playoff picture … for now.

2. Baltimore (7-3) and Pittsburgh (7-2) will renew their rivalry, which has been one of the league’s most competitive for more than a decade, on Sunday at 1 p.m. EST. The winner takes first place in the AFC North.

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3. Kansas City (9-0) visits Buffalo (8-2), the site of the most recent postseason classic between those two teams, in a 4:25 p.m. EST game. The Chiefs are lined as an underdog, just like they were for that epic divisional-round playoff game in January. Patrick Mahomes is 4-3 head-to-head against Josh Allen.

4. On Sunday night, Cincinnati (4-6) will fight to stay in the playoff race against the surging Chargers (6-3), as Los Angeles looks to establish its place among AFC contenders. Thank the NFL schedulers for flexing this game and not making us watch Joe Flacco vs. Aaron Rodgers in this time slot.

The Cardinals, Giants, Panthers, and Buccaneers are on bye in Week 11. Here are my thoughts on every game in Week 11, including bets I’ve already made

Thursday Night Football

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

After the first 10 weeks of the season, there’s little to differentiate these two teams in terms of quality. The Commanders have a plus-73 point differential, while the Eagles are at plus-72. The Commanders are ranked seventh in DVOA, while the Eagles are eighth. Offensively, Washington has been better, while the Eagles have shown real improvement on defense during their five-game win streak.

The line for this game opened at 3.5, got bet down to 3, and is now back up to Philadelphia -3.5. From a situational perspective, a prime time road game in a short week is a challenging spot for Washington. The main concern is the Commanders’ injury report, especially along the offensive line. Both starting tackles—Brandon Coleman and Andrew Wylie—were limited in Monday’s practice. Newly acquired cornerback Marshon Lattimore is still recovering from a hamstring injury and didn’t practice Monday. He could be a key player in this matchup against Philly’s two elite wide receivers.

The injuries make me a bit hesitant to support the Commanders here, but there’s not enough of a gap between these two teams to justify this price being over 3 in favor of Philadelphia.

Verdict: Lean Commanders +3.5 (-115).

Sunday Matchups

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+5.5)

Matt Eberflus played one of his last remaining cards as the Bears head coach by firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron on Tuesday. The desperate firing of a coordinator is often a sign that the head coach is on the hot seat as well. It’s one thing to lose on a Hail Mary, as the Bears did in Week 8, but it’s another thing to get blown out in consecutive weeks by Arizona and New England—games in which the offense looked completely lifeless.

The Bears headed into the Week 7 bye at 4-2 and had consecutive blowout wins against Carolina and Jacksonville, but the offense ranks dead last in the NFL in EPA per drive in the past three games against average (at best) defenses. Only the Colts and Texans have a lower success rate in this three-week stretch.

Now comes the eternal question that you have to ask as a bettor. Has the market moved too far? In this column in Week 8, I bet the Jaguars +4.5 at home against the Packers. Now, the Bears are rated lower than that Jaguars team. At the time, it seemed absurd to bet on the Jaguars, who covered the game and lost on a last-second field goal.

There’s been a lot of discussion about the Bears offensive line as the root of their issues. The offensive line grades out around league average by both PFF and ESPN pass block win rate. Caleb Williams is holding the ball too long, the offense is suffering as a result, and thus I’ll hold off on backing the Bears here, even though everything I know as an NFL bettor says I should bet on them.

Verdict: Lean Bears at +6, bet at +7.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-13.5)

Sam Darnold did his best to give Sunday’s game to the Jaguars. Somehow, Jacksonville covered the spread for the fourth consecutive week, despite an offensive performance that was among the worst in the NFL this season. Following the Jaguars’ 143 total yards and three turnovers in their 12-7 loss to Minnesota, Mac Jones is expected to start again this Sunday in Detroit.

Jacksonville had a 25.6 percent success rate in that game, the worst of any team in a single game this season. It was so bad that it makes me wonder whether we’ve been too hard on Trevor Lawrence. Minnesota’s defense is one of the most challenging in the NFL, but Detroit won’t be easier for Jones. The Lions excel at shutting down the run game and playing aggressive man coverage. Last week, the Lions held the Texans to 3.8 yards per play and a 32.3 percent success rate.

Detroit is a safe bet due to the efficiency and explosiveness of its run game. The Jaguars have been outplayed in the box score in two consecutive weeks, making the Lions the only choice for this game.

Verdict: Lean Lions -13.5.

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-7)

If I’m being honest, I had kind of forgotten about the Raiders as a football entity during their bye week. They fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy during the bye, and much like Eberflus, Antonio Pierce is pulling all the emergency levers to try to save his job. I don’t suspect that will work or change much about this season on the field. At this point, the run scheme is as bad as that of any team in the NFL, and Gardner Minshew isn’t consistent enough to overcome that.

Miami finally covered the spread for the first time with Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup in the Monday night upset against the Rams. The Dolphins are generally a really difficult team to price because of how skewed their offensive data is, but they are an excellent teaser leg at home here.

Verdict: Pass; tease Dolphins with Kansas City.

Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) at New England Patriots

The Rams’ playoff chances took a huge hit on Monday night with their loss to the Dolphins, and now they’re in must-win territory in New England. The Patriots’ 19-3 win in Chicago said a whole lot more about the Bears than it did about the Patriots. With that being said, it is impressive how Drake Maye has managed to navigate poor offensive line play to make the offense functional, unlike his counterpart Caleb Williams did on Sunday.

I’ve long been a Matt Stafford defender. He’s had some heroic games this season, given the injury situation the Rams dealt with earlier in the year. However, his performance against Seattle and Miami in the past two weeks should raise some alarm bells. Puka Nacua was ejected early in the game against the Seahawks, but those are two very gettable defenses, and Stafford wasn’t able to effectively convert yards into points in either game.

The Rams’ success rate remained excellent (second of all teams in Week 10) against the Dolphins, so I’m not fully panicking about Stafford. But there are some things to monitor, even if I won’t be betting on this game.

Verdict: Pass.

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Last week, New Orleans won a crucial divisional game at home against the Falcons. The new-coach bounce is a common theme in NFL betting, and Saints interim head coach Darren Rizzi certainly brought passion and energy to the sideline. However, the Saints won that game only because Younghoe Koo missed three field goals for Atlanta. The Falcons offense was able to move the ball consistently and finished the game with a higher offensive success rate than the Saints.

I’m not convinced that New Orleans can rely on hitting two explosive pass plays to Marquez Valdes-Scantling every week, as it did in Week 10. Atlanta also puts much less pressure on the quarterback than Cleveland. Atlanta is ranked 26th in pass-rush win rate, while Cleveland is sixth. Derek Carr wasn’t pressured much last Sunday, but he will be this week. Cleveland will be facing a struggling Saints offensive line and an offense that lacks healthy receivers; I see a clear advantage for Jim Schwartz and the Browns defense.

Betting on Jameis Winston is always a roller-coaster experience and one of the most intense three-hour rides in football, but Cleveland is in a good position coming off the bye and should be favored here.

Verdict: Bet Browns moneyline (+100).

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)

The underdog covers 79 percent of the time in matchups between John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, according to Brandon Anderson. When the Ravens and Steelers have matched up in the Harbaugh and Tomlin era, the underdogs of at least 3 points have been 18-2-3 against the spread. Pittsburgh is in the underdog role for this matchup at home, and the trend alone is strong enough for me to lean toward Pittsburgh. The Steelers have also faced Lamar Jackson numerous times and have managed to hold up quite well against him.

You’ve probably heard a lot about how much better the Pittsburgh offense has become because of Russell Wilson. While that’s true in terms of output, Pittsburgh is still ranked 29th in success rate since Wilson took over. But it’s had a lot of explosive plays and is seventh in EPA per play. And if the Ravens defense has a weakness, it’s giving up big pass plays.

Considering all this, it seems like a good idea not to overthink it and to expect Pittsburgh to be within a score of Baltimore late in the game, as usual.

Verdict: Lean Steelers +3.

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans (+6)

The Titans special teams cost them yet again in Week 10; Nick Folk missed a field goal, and a huge Chargers kick return set L.A. up in an excellent field position in Titans territory for a separate touchdown drive. Tennessee ranks dead last in the NFL in special teams DVOA, and by a wide margin now. There are few worse feelings than betting on a team with a bad special teams unit; you can’t even take for granted that they’ll successfully kick off, return kicks, or make kicks without completely botching the sequences.

As anti-Titans as I’ve been this year, how can the Vikings be a six-point road favorite given Sam Darnold’s current form? The journeyman quarterback has made mistake after mistake in each of the past two weeks, only to be bailed out by Brian Flores’s elite defense in games against Joe Flacco and Mac Jones.

The Vikings and Titans defenses rank in the top seven in the NFL in yards allowed per drive, though, so instead of betting on Will Levis, I’ll bet against both him and Darnold. I just have to pray for no special teams funny business in this one given that there’s little margin for error with a total this low.

Verdict: Bet under 39.5 (-110).

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-4)

The Colts announced on Wednesday that they are reinstating Anthony Richardson as their starting quarterback. This decision comes after the team struggled offensively in the past two weeks with Joe Flacco at the helm. One of its biggest challenges has been its inability to effectively run the ball since Richardson was benched. With the young dual-threat quarterback back in the game, the team has more options for success on offense.

The Jets defense, which is no longer as strong as it used to be, allowed the Cardinals to gain 28 first downs on 57 plays last week. But despite the Jets’ struggles, the betting market has moved the line from -3 to -4.

This is the third consecutive week that the market has shown confidence in the Jets. However, it’s unclear what they currently excel at. Aaron Rodgers struggled to get anything down the field last week, and their special teams are ranked in the bottom five by DVOA. I’m happy to oppose this market love for the Jets, even if it means betting on Flacco in his current state.

Verdict: Bet Colts +4 (-110).

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-1.5)

Every week that we see Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense against a non-Panthers and non-Buccaneers opponent, I become more uncertain about what this team really is. The Falcons sit at 6-4 and have a plus-2 point differential, making them very average overall. An interesting scheduling quirk is that the Falcons have played four road games this season, and three of them were divisional games against subpar opponents. And the Falcons’ Week 2 road win in Philadelphia is a game Atlanta would probably lose 95 times out of 100, given how it blew the end-of-game sequence.

Denver’s defensive line is ninth in line yards and should be able to slow down the Atlanta run game. The Broncos have an elite corner in Patrick Surtain II, who can shadow Drake London, and they do an excellent job of bringing pressure effectively against the offense and could exploit Cousins’s inability to escape the pocket. Despite Cousins’s largely impressive stats and performance this year, he has had nine big-time throws and 16 turnover-worthy plays.

On the other side of the ball, Bo Nix will have time in the pocket, and Atlanta’s defense remains quite mediocre as a whole. The Falcons do not generate any pressure against the quarterback and grade out around league average against the run. Nix has had 11 big-time throws and six turnover-worthy plays this season. Denver has a much better defense, has an easier path to offensive success, and is playing at home. I think that Atlanta will lose its second in a row on the road.

Verdict: Bet Broncos -2 (-110).

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

Like the Titans, the 49ers are underperforming in their play-to-play metrics because of their special teams (the 49ers are 31st in special teams DVOA); otherwise, those metrics suggest that they should be a clear top-six team in the NFL. Only the Commanders average more yards per drive than San Francisco. The 49ers have no issue moving the ball up and down the field. But when they miss three field goals, muff a punt return, and consistently lose the field position battle, the Niners lose box score blowouts and end up being tied with less than two minutes to go, as in Sunday’s win against Tampa. If they can get out of their own way, San Francisco can probably still get multiple blowout wins. Maybe that will happen against Seattle on Sunday.

The Seahawks are a really difficult team to figure out, but D.K. Metcalf is likely to return from injury, and Geno Smith needs that added level of explosiveness to make his passes work. In Week 9 Smith struggled in the red zone against the Rams and had multiple high-leverage turnovers, but Seattle did move the ball consistently. The back door will be open for them, and I don’t expect anything less than an all-in effort from them in this game, given that they sit at 4-5 in a competitive NFC playoff picture.

Verdict: Pass.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

When the NFL schedule was released, the first game I searched for was this one. Just think about all the incredible drama these two quarterbacks have produced in the regular season alone—including last season, when Kadarius Toney lined up offsides and it seemed like the Chiefs season might be unraveling.

Here we are again, with Patrick Mahomes lined up as an underdog. My colleague Raheem Palmer jokes about this, and he’s 100 percent right. The sportsbooks don’t pay you extra money just because you bet against Mahomes and win. You don’t have to do it. And honestly, what’s the edge at this point anyway?

The market is well aware that the Chiefs are remarkably lucky to have a 9-0 record and are closer to a 6-3 team overall. That’s why the market is pricing the 8-2 Bills as a slight home favorite. The market will probably never get to -3 because books are aware that that would lead to an avalanche of Chiefs bets from sharp bettors, so expect it to sit between Bills -1.5 and Bills -2.5 all week long.

Mahomes has been ridiculously efficient on third down. The Chiefs offense has a 52 percent success rate on third down. No other team is higher than 49.2 percent. For all the problems that Kansas City has had generating explosive passes overall, both Buffalo and Kansas City are in the top six in third-down explosive play rate because their quarterbacks are aliens. The game will probably come down to who has the ball last; thus, the Chiefs are an excellent teaser leg if you bet them up to +8.5.

Note: Anytime we get a super high-leverage game between these two teams, it never hurts to look in the direction of rush yards and attempt overs for the two quarterbacks.

Verdict: Pass; use Chiefs as a teaser leg up to +8.5.

Sunday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)

The strength of schedule difference between these two teams is notable because the Chargers have played the easiest schedule of opponents in the entire NFL. But even after adjusting for that, the Chargers are ranked 10th in DVOA, while the Bengals are 16th. I had serious doubts about the Chargers offense after the first month of the season because they relied heavily on the run game, which wasn’t consistently effective. However, since their bye in Week 5, the Chargers have expanded Justin Herbert’s passing game with good results. Herbert’s improved week-to-week performances have gone unnoticed because of the lack of high-profile Chargers games this season.

Herbert had the highest combined QB efficiency and PFF grade in Week 10 among all quarterbacks and has been in the top two in that metric for three of the past four weeks. The Chargers are one of eight teams with an explosive play rate allowed below 10 percent, while the only advantage Cincinnati has in this matchup is Joe Burrow’s ability to connect with Ja’Marr Chase for explosive plays.

The Bengals may have extra rest, but the Chargers have the upper hand on both offense and defense, a better coach, and equally strong quarterback play. In my opinion, all signs say that the Chargers should be closer to a three-point favorite, so I’m betting on them this Sunday when the odds are near a pick’em.

Verdict: Bet Chargers moneyline (-115).

Monday Night Football

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5)

Another week, another disastrous second half for the Houston offense. On Sunday, the Texans went into halftime leading 23-7 against Detroit and must have been feeling optimistic about their chances of securing a significant win without Nico Collins and Will Anderson. However, in seven second-half possessions, they had four punts, two turnovers, and a missed field goal and didn’t score any points. Overall, though, the performance of the Texans defense against Detroit should provide some real optimism as they navigate a season in which the offense has regressed rather than progressed. The defense turned over Jared Goff five times and successfully pressured him repeatedly, something that few defenses had been able to do all season against the elite Lions offensive line.

The key to beating Dallas is controlling the game on the ground. Despite Joe Mixon’s return, the Texans have ranked 28th in the NFL in rush success rate since Week 7. When holding a lead in the second half, they struggle to sustain drives through the running game. And when playing from behind and forced to rely on passing, the offense has been unable to find success or establish a rhythm.

The Texans currently rank 26th for the season in EPA per play after halftime, highlighting a concerning lack of adjustments by the coaching staff. Despite these long-term issues with Houston’s offense, it remains unclear how much they will matter against a defense as inefficient as Dallas’s.

Cooper Rush performed adequately as a backup when Dak Prescott was injured in 2022, benefiting from a strong running game and effective play-action. However, Sunday’s game against the Eagles revealed the limitations of the dropback passing game with Rush at the helm. This is a second-half under bet for me.

Verdict: Bet second half under 20.5 (-120).

Bets from this article made for Week 11:

Colts +4 (-110)
Broncos -2 (-110)
Browns moneyline (+100)
Chargers moneyline (-120)
Vikings-Titans under 39.5 (-110)
Texans-Cowboys second half under 20.5 (-120)
Six-point teaser
Kansas City +8.5, Miami -1.5 (-120)