Apple

Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
You are on page 1of 12

What is appropriate financial policy for this

industry?
Short product life cycles,
R&D-intensive,
K-intensive,
Brand-intensive,
heavy innovation => very risky
=> Low/zero debt => High cash balances
=> No dividends, no share repurchases
=> Low inventory Apple is doing everything you would recommend for
this industry – why is everyone getting so angry?
How is there financial performance?
• 30% CAGR revenue growth …beginning on an $8 billion base!
• Gross Margins from 23% to 48%!!
• Operating Margins from 0% to 35%!!!
• Net Margins from 0% to 26%!!!!
• Cash Flow >> Net Income!!!!! Why?
• Look at their cash conversion cycle…
• Wow…no equity or debt issuance to finance growth…
There performance may be even better than
you think…
• ROE Dupont Breakdown
2006 2012
• ROE 20% 36%
• Net Margin 10% 27%
• Asset Turnover 1.1 0.9
• Leverage 1.7 1.5

• Why are Asset Turnover and Leverage declining? ROE could have been
as high as 50%+
Revisiting their B/S– what is their true asset
intensity?
• Book Value based balance sheet
Assets L&NW
……………… ……………..
Cash 121 OL 58
OA 55 NW 118
…………. ………………
Total: 176 Total: 176
Revisiting their B/S- let’s look at MVs
• Book Value based balance sheet
Assets L&NW
……………… ……………..
Cash 121
EV 438 MV 559
…………. ………………
Total: 559 Total: 559
Apple financials Behaves like a Tech
company and a bank
A Tech company
Assets L&NW
……………… ……………..
Asset 438 Equity 438

A Bank
Assets L&NW
……………… ……………..
Cash 121 Equity 121
How much excess cash (end of 2012)?
Cash 121
-Taxes 29 (121*69% Ireland*35% tax)
-Buffer 20 (Two years of Operating Expenses)
……….. ………..
Excess 72

But, what is more astounding is that a simple forecast shows that cash
builds up again v. quickly in a base case – back to $140 billion in three
years!
Dividend Analysis
Before Repatriation
Required Cash 20,550 Debt 68,742
Excess Cash 1,16,562 Equity 1,27,346
Other Assets 58,976    
Total 1,96,088 Total 1,96,088

Repatriation Tax 33,113

After Repatriation Post Dividend


Required Cash 20,550 Debt 68,472 Required Cash 20,550 Debt 68,472
Excess Cash 83,449 Equity 94,233 Excess Cash 0 Equity 10,784
Other Assets 58,976     Other Assets 58,976    
Total 1,62,975 Total 1,62,705 Total 79,526 Total 79,256

Cash available for dividend 83,449


Shares Outstanding 939.1
Max Dividend/Share $88.86
Net Income 41,747

Pre Shares Outstanding 939.1   Post Shares Outstanding 939.1


Pre EPS $44.45 Post EPS $44.45
Pre Price $450.50 Post Price $361.64
Pre P/E 10.13   Post P/E 8.14
Share Repurchase Analysis
Before Repatriation
Required Cash 20,550 Debt 68,742
Excess Cash 1,16,562 Equity 1,27,346
Other Assets 58,976    
Total 1,96,088 Total 1,96,088

Repatriation Tax 33,113

After Repatriation After Share Repurchase


Required Cash 20,550 Debt 68,472 Required Cash 20,550 Debt 68,472
Excess Cash 83,449 Equity 94,233 Excess Cash 0 Equity 10,784
Other Assets 58,976     Other Assets 58,976    
Total 1,62,975 Total 1,62,705 Total 79,526 Total 79,256

Cash available for repurchase 83,449


Share Price 450.50
Max Shares Repurchased 185.2
Total Shares 939.1
Pro Forma Shares 753.9
Percent Repurchased 19.7%
Net Income 41,747

Post Shares
Pre Shares Outstanding 939.1   Outstanding 753.9
Pre EPS $44.45 Post EPS $55.38
Pre Price $450.50 Post Price $450.50
Pre P/E 10.13   Post P/E 8.14
Ipref Analysis
Before Repatriation
Required Cash 20,550 Debt 68,742
Excess Cash 1,16,562 Equity 1,27,346
Other Assets 58,976    
Total 1,96,088 Total 1,96,088

Repatriation Tax 33,113 Current Value $450 (stock price)

After Repatriation $250 (face value of 5 iPrefs)


Required Cash 20,550 Debt 68,472 Total Value with iPref $350 (new stock price)
Excess Cash 83,449 Equity 94,233 $600
Other Assets 58,976    
Total 1,62,975 Total 1,62,705 Value Unlocked $150 per share

Face Value of iPref $50


Annual Dividend $2
Total Shares 939.1 mil 0.94 billion
Amount Spent on 5 iPrefs per shareholder 9391 mil 9.4 billion
Net Income 41,747 42 billion

$ billion $ per share


Apple Net Income $42 $45
Less: iPref Dividends $9.4 $10
Pro forma net income $33 $35
Constant P/E multiple 10.0
New Apple Price per Share $350

Current Price per Share $450


Change in Price per Share ($100)
Ipref Analysis Contd.
Face Value of iPref 50
Annual Dividend 2
Total Shares 939.1 mil 0.94 billion

Amount Spent on 5 iPrefs per shareholder 9391 mil 9.4 billion


Net Income 41747 42 billion

billion per share


Total Shares 0.94
Apple Net Income 42 45
Less: iPref Dividends 9.4 10
Pro forma net income 33 35
Constant P/E multiple 10
New Apple Price per Share 350

Current Price per Share 450


Change in Price per Share -100

Current Value of One Share 450

Total Value with iPref 250 (face value of 5 iPrefs)


350 (new stock price)
600

Value Unlocked 150 per share

You might also like