Apple
Apple
Apple
industry?
Short product life cycles,
R&D-intensive,
K-intensive,
Brand-intensive,
heavy innovation => very risky
=> Low/zero debt => High cash balances
=> No dividends, no share repurchases
=> Low inventory Apple is doing everything you would recommend for
this industry – why is everyone getting so angry?
How is there financial performance?
• 30% CAGR revenue growth …beginning on an $8 billion base!
• Gross Margins from 23% to 48%!!
• Operating Margins from 0% to 35%!!!
• Net Margins from 0% to 26%!!!!
• Cash Flow >> Net Income!!!!! Why?
• Look at their cash conversion cycle…
• Wow…no equity or debt issuance to finance growth…
There performance may be even better than
you think…
• ROE Dupont Breakdown
2006 2012
• ROE 20% 36%
• Net Margin 10% 27%
• Asset Turnover 1.1 0.9
• Leverage 1.7 1.5
•
• Why are Asset Turnover and Leverage declining? ROE could have been
as high as 50%+
Revisiting their B/S– what is their true asset
intensity?
• Book Value based balance sheet
Assets L&NW
……………… ……………..
Cash 121 OL 58
OA 55 NW 118
…………. ………………
Total: 176 Total: 176
Revisiting their B/S- let’s look at MVs
• Book Value based balance sheet
Assets L&NW
……………… ……………..
Cash 121
EV 438 MV 559
…………. ………………
Total: 559 Total: 559
Apple financials Behaves like a Tech
company and a bank
A Tech company
Assets L&NW
……………… ……………..
Asset 438 Equity 438
A Bank
Assets L&NW
……………… ……………..
Cash 121 Equity 121
How much excess cash (end of 2012)?
Cash 121
-Taxes 29 (121*69% Ireland*35% tax)
-Buffer 20 (Two years of Operating Expenses)
……….. ………..
Excess 72
But, what is more astounding is that a simple forecast shows that cash
builds up again v. quickly in a base case – back to $140 billion in three
years!
Dividend Analysis
Before Repatriation
Required Cash 20,550 Debt 68,742
Excess Cash 1,16,562 Equity 1,27,346
Other Assets 58,976
Total 1,96,088 Total 1,96,088
Post Shares
Pre Shares Outstanding 939.1 Outstanding 753.9
Pre EPS $44.45 Post EPS $55.38
Pre Price $450.50 Post Price $450.50
Pre P/E 10.13 Post P/E 8.14
Ipref Analysis
Before Repatriation
Required Cash 20,550 Debt 68,742
Excess Cash 1,16,562 Equity 1,27,346
Other Assets 58,976
Total 1,96,088 Total 1,96,088