2.beating The Odds When You Launch A New Venture

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BEATING THE ODDS

WHEN YOU START A NEW


VENTURE
TACKLING THE RIGHT RISKS FIRST

Risk and value are inversely proportional:


When you remove risk, you increase value.
But it matters in what sequence you tackle
risks, because not all of them are created
equal.
RECOGNIZE THAT NOT ALL RISKS ARE CREATED
EQUAL

New ventures fairly bristle with risks.  


The key question is “What’s the most important
uncertainty?” and the answer should be targeted early.

 Deal-killer risks
 Path-dependent risks and easy-win
 High-ROI risks.
RISKS THAT CAN BE RESOLVED WITHOUT
SPENDING A LOT OF TIME AND MONEY.
BE JUDICIOUS WITH CAPITAL
 Experiments should help redirect a venture, not confirm
that your initial ideas were correct.
 The way venture capitalists invest in startups—by
providing capital in multiple rounds as the value of the
venture increases—is far more effective.
MANAGE EXPERIMENTS EFFICIENTLY

 Identifying and prioritizing risks correctly and then


conceiving and funding experiments to resolve them
systematically will make the unpredictable process of
launching a new venture as efficient.

 Several steps to make your experiments more effective.


LIMIT THE DURATION.
According to Meg Whitman, the former president and
CEO of eBay, the company succeeded in its earliest days
by recognizing that perfection is sometimes the enemy
of the good.
 It’s often better to get something into the market
quickly, learn from it, and move on to the next phase of
development than to analyze an idea to death and try to
perfect it before launch.
 Even deal-killer risks can sometimes be tested quickly
and simply.
TEST ONE THING AT A TIME.

o Poorly designed experiments vary too many


factors at once, increasing the expense and
making it difficult to determine what causes
what.
o Experiments should be simple and focused on
resolving uncertainties one by one.
APPLY THE LESSONS LEARNED.

 Corrections come painfully, but it’s better to


choose to adjust early than be forced to
adjust later.
 They are meant to help redirect a venture,
not to confirm that your initial ideas were
correct.
BE WILLING TO TURN OFF EXPERIMENTS.
 This idea is closely related to the previous point,
but requires far more discipline.
 Some ventures are simply not going to work. A
deal-killer risk may in fact kill the deal. The
sooner you cut your losses in such cases, the
sooner you can go on to the next venture.
CONCLUSION
•NEW VENTURE FORMATION will always be fraught
with risks..
•As Bob Reiss’s story has illustrated for decades—and our
expérience continues to confirm - great entrepreneurs don’t
take risks; they manage them.
Making speedy adjustments often means the difference
between failure and success.
•As entrepreneurial managers should learn to bend the risk-
reward curve in their favor and beat the odds

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