ISSN: 2320-5407 Int. J. Adv. Res.

12(10), 1187-1192

Journal Homepage: - www.journalijar.com

Article DOI: 10.21474/IJAR01/19741

DOI URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.21474/IJAR01/19741

RESEARCH ARTICLE
TRACKING THE FUTURE OF THE OCEAN FROM PERSPECTIVE PRESENT AND PAST HISTORY

Ismail Ali, Mosli Tarsat, Douglas Nyenging Taong

Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia.

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Manuscript Info Abstract
……………………. ………………………………………………………………
Manuscript History This article aims to discuss the future history of the ocean from a past
Received: 24 August 2024 and present perspective, focusing on how historical patterns and current
Final Accepted: 28 September 2024 data can be used to predict future challenges and opportunities that
Published: October 2024 marine ecosystems and coastal communities may face. Key questions
Key words:-
explored in this study include the impact of climate change on marine
Future History, Ocean, Climate Change, biodiversity, the threat of plastic pollution, potential geopolitical
Maritime Geopolitics and Maritime conflicts in strategic sea lanes, as well as implications for maritime
Economics economics and food security. In terms of conceptual framework studies,
this paper uses continuity theory and future uncertainty theory used to
analyze the relationship between past changes, current conditions, and
future potential in maritime ecosystems. In terms of methodology, the
study will use qualitative methods through the analysis of marine
history literature and maritime science, as well as the use of simulation
methods and predictive models to study future trends. This article also
applies maritime climate change theory, maritime geopolitical theory,
and maritime economic sustainability theory to support discussions and
predict possible future scenarios. The results of this study show that the
future history of the ocean depends not only on scientific data but also
on the understanding of historical and social contexts, which can help
shape a more comprehensive and sustainable ocean management
strategy.

Copyright, IJAR, 2024,. All rights reserved.

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Introduction:-
The history of the ocean not only encompasses the evolution of human civilization involved in navigation, fishing,
and maritime trade, but also illustrates the dynamic relationship between humans and the ocean that is the lifeblood
of economic, political, and cultural life. Now, with global challenges such as climate change, pollution, and ocean
warming, the history of the future of the ocean is a significant aspect in helping humanity understand and prepare for
the future of the world's oceans. Using the historical approach of the future, we can anticipate the challenges that
will be faced, and thus avoid the mistakes of the past that may be repeated.

Definition of Future History and Marine History

Future history, or "futures history", is a field of research that combines history and the science of prediction to
propose possible developments or changes in the future based on data analysis and past patterns (Bell, 2003). Unlike
conventional history which studies past events, future history aims to map possible future scenarios. This method
involves in-depth research into empirical data, social, political, economic, and ecological trends to create a picture of

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Corresponding Author:- Ismail Ali
Address:- Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia.
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possible futures. According to Gidley (2017), future history is a strategic effort that enriches human understanding
of the future, based on history and probability analysis. Marine history refers to the study of the role of the ocean
and the sea in shaping human history and the relationship between humans and the ocean itself. It covers a wide
range of aspects including maritime economics, maritime trade, port development, and shipping technology (Horden
& Purcell, 2000). Through the history of the ocean, we can understand the development of civilization which is
closely related to the role of the ocean as a medium for the spread of culture and technology, as well as a very
important economic and political resource. In addition, marine history also helps to assess the impact of human
activities on marine ecosystems and their impact on society (Rozwadowski, 2005).

What is the Importance of Studying the History of the Future of the Ocean
The history of the ocean is not just a story about maritime exploration and trade, but it also reflects the dynamic
relationship between humans and the ocean throughout the ages. In a modern era filled with challenges such as
climate change, ocean pollution, and the increasing use of marine resources, the study of the future history of the
ocean is becoming increasingly important. The historical approach of the future allows us to anticipate changes that
may occur in the ocean in the future and plan sensible steps to meet those challenges. This study is important not
only to protect marine ecosystems but also to ensure the safety and well-being of the global community. This essay
will discuss some of the key reasons why studying the future history of the ocean is important.

1. Avoid Repeating Past Mistakes

The study of the history of the future of the ocean helps us avoid possible repeated mistakes in marine resource
management. Many previous civilizations that relied on the sea eventually collapsed due to overexploitation of
resources and failure to manage maritime ecosystems properly (McNeill, 2010). For example, some ancient
maritime kingdoms in the Mediterranean Sea faced decline when marine ecosystems became no longer productive
due to overfishing. Through the study of future history, we can anticipate the same challenges faced by todays and
future societies if this overexploitation is not curbed. Therefore, studying the history of the future gives us the
opportunity to learn from previous mistakes and avoid similar crises in the future.

2. Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems

The study of the future history of the ocean is also important to understand how climate change will affect marine
ecosystems and communities that depend on marine resources. The ocean is the world's largest carbon sink, but
excessive carbon dioxide sequestration causes ocean acidity to rise and seawater temperatures to rise, which
negatively impacts many marine species (Folke et al., 2016). Through the study of past climate data and future
prediction models, researchers can predict habitat changes and migration patterns of marine species due to global
warming. These forecasts enable governments and environmental agencies to plan adaptation measures to protect
marine biodiversity as well as ensure sustainable marine resources for future generations.

3. Ensuring Maritime Security and Sovereignty

The sea is a major trade route and a strategic area for many countries. Therefore, the study of the future history of
the ocean also plays an important role in ensuring the maritime security and sovereignty of a country. According to
Till (2009), history shows that strategic routes such as the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea have often
been points of conflict between great powers due to their importance in global trade. By studying history and
mapping out future scenarios, governments can predict potential conflicts at sea and devise strategies to defend their
sovereignty. This approach also helps countries plan more strategic foreign policies and minimize the risk of future
maritime conflicts.

4. Supporting Effective Marine Resources Conservation and Management Policies

The study of the future history of the ocean provides important information for policymakers to plan more effective
ocean conservation strategies. The ocean is a complex ecosystem and the interactions between various species and
ecological factors are difficult to predict accurately. Using the future historical approach, researchers can look at
patterns of past ecological changes to predict possible challenges in the future. For example, plastic and chemical
pollution in the ocean is now a major threat to marine life (Jam Beck et al., 2015). By studying the history of
pollution and studying current trends, policies can be formed to reduce this pollution as well as protect marine
ecosystems.

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5. Preparing Society for a More Sustainable Future

The study of the history of the future of the ocean is also important in educating and preparing the community to
face a more sustainable ocean future. According to Gidley (2017), future history is an approach that aims to increase
human awareness and responsibility towards future generations. Through this study, people can understand that their
activities in the ocean today will impact future generations. For example, awareness of the importance of protecting
coral reefs or conserving endangered species can be created through education based on the study of the history of
the ocean's future. By raising public awareness of marine issues, we can form a society that is more aware of
environmental sustainability.

Future Historical Theory and Its Application in the History of the Future of the Ocean
Future history is a field of study that aims to understand and anticipate changes that may occur in the future based on
past historical patterns and data as well as current developments. This theory provides an opportunity for researchers
to study future events systematically and structurally, especially in the context of increasingly critical maritime
issues. With global threats such as climate change, ocean pollution, and resource scarcity on the rise, understanding
the future history of the ocean is essential. This essay will discuss the key theories in the study of future history and
how these theories are applied in the study of the future history of the ocean.

Future Historical Theories and Future Historical Theories of the Marine Ocean
The study of future history evolved as an attempt to see the future as an extension of the past and present, rather than
just speculation without a solid basis. Bell (2003) explained that future history seeks to predict future possibilities
based on historical data and patterns. One of the main theories in future history is thecontinuity theory which
assumes that the past, present, and future are continuums of interconnected events. According to this theory, the
future can be predicted through the analysis of past events and recurring patterns (Bell, 2003).

Another important theory is the theory of future uncertainty, put forward by Gidley (2017). This theory emphasizes
that while history can provide guidance for predicting the future, there is still an element of uncertainty that is
inevitable due to various factors such as social, technological, and environmental changes. Therefore, this theory
warns researchers that future predictions need to be flexible and constantly reviewed. In the context of the historical
study of the future of the ocean, these theories are used to anticipate changes in maritime ecosystems and sea trade
routes, considering historical patterns as well as new factors impacting the global ocean. This theory provides the
basis for designing better and effective marine management strategies. There are several specific theories applied in
the study of the future history of the ocean as follows:

Maritime Climate Change Theory

Maritime climate change theory focuses on the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and sea-dependent
human populations. Folke et al. (2016) emphasized that global warming has had a significant impact on ocean
temperature patterns, sea levels, and ocean currents, which in turn affects marine biodiversity. Using this theory,
researchers can predict the impact of climate change on marine habitats and determine areas of the ocean that may
be affected in the future. This theory is also important for predicting the position of marine species that are
decreasing or shifting due to changes in ocean temperature.

Maritime Geopolitical Theory

The sea is not only ecologically important, but also as a strategic area from a geopolitical point of view. Maritime
geopolitical theory, introduced by Till (2009), emphasizes the importance of trade routes and strategic positions at
sea. According to Till, history shows that great powers often conflict or compete for control of important maritime
routes, such as the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. Using this theory, researchers can predict potential
conflicts at sea due to population growth and increased resource needs. Maritime geopolitical theories play a crucial
role in ensuring national sovereignty and the security of sea lanes in the future.

Theory of Maritime Economic Continuity

The theory of maritime economic continuity, on the other hand, focuses on the sustainable and sustainable use of
marine resources. According to McNeill (2010), overexploitation of the sea can lead to the collapse of marine
ecosystems and ultimately harm the maritime economy itself. Using this theory, researchers can predict the long-
term economic impact that may occur due to the unsustainable use of marine resources. This theory helps in
formulating policies that support ocean conservation as well as ensuring that marine resources can be used by future
generations.

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Application of Theory in the Study of the History of the Future of the Ocean
These three theories can be combined to examine marine issues from the perspective of future history. For example,
plastic pollution in the oceans is an issue that requires an approach based on all three theories. Maritime climate
change theory will help predict the impact of temperature changes and ocean currents on the movement of plastics in
the oceans. Maritime geopolitical theory, on the other hand, will consider conflicts or cooperation between countries
in addressing the issue of plastic pollution that knows no borders. Meanwhile, the theory of maritime economic
sustainability will provide guidance in planning policies that ensure that plastic pollution does not have a negative
impact on the maritime economy in the future (Jam Beck et al., 2015).

In addition, the issue of climate change causing sea level rise is also a relevant example for the application of this
theory. Through maritime climate change theory, researchers can predict coastal areas that may be affected and
determine appropriate conservation measures. Maritime geopolitical theory, on the other hand, will consider the
issue of human migration due to sea level rise that may trigger conflicts or social problems. The theory of maritime
economic continuity, in this context, provides guidance on the development of a more sustainable coastal economy
to reduce the impact of sea level rise on the coastal economy.

How Future History Mapping Maritime History

Incorporating the concept of future history in the context of marine history is important to understand possible future
scenarios involving oceans. First, through a future historical approach, researchers can predict marine ecological
challenges such as climate change, marine pollution, and biodiversity loss that may worsen in the coming decades
(McNeill, 2010). Based on climate science and historical data, we can see possible patterns, for example changes in
ocean temperatures that could lead to mass migration of marine species to areas more suitable for their habitats.

Second, future history allows mapping future marine economic scenarios. Based on the historical records of
maritime trade, researchers can anticipate the potential for conflict or competition between countries that depend on
strategic maritime routes such as the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea (Till, 2009). In this future scenario,
the study of marine history provides an overview of trends and patterns of ocean use that may be relevant in
determining future global geopolitical policies.Third, the history of the future of the ocean also provides an
opportunity to outline better conservation policies and measures based on historical understanding. By reviewing
how previous countries failed or succeeded in controlling marine pollution or overexploitation of marine resources,
policymakers can take more effective preventive measures and management strategies in the future (Folke et al.,
2016).

Predicting the Future of the Ocean: Present and Past Perspectives and Predictive Reliability
The history of the oceans plays a crucial role in understanding the relationship between humans and the oceans,
while the development of today's technology and science allows us to make predictions about the future of the
oceans. These predictions cover various aspects such as climate change, ocean pollution, species migration, as well
as the sustainable use of maritime resources. However, how reliable these predictions are depending on the
forecasting methods used, the reliability of past data, and our ability to understand current patterns of change. This
essay will discuss how past and present-based approaches help in predicting the future of the ocean as well as the
factors that influence the reliability of those predictions.

Predicting the Future of the Ocean Based on the Past and Present
The historical method is a key foundation in understanding how certain factors, such as climate change and human
activities, affect the ocean over time. By looking at past historical patterns, researchers can predict changes that may
occur in the future. For example, McNeill (2010) in his book Something New Under the Sun shows how
uncontrolled rapid development and industrial pollution in the 20th century have negatively impacted marine
ecosystems. Based on this historical data, we can expect similar challenges in the future if the trend of pollution and
exploitation continues.

Maritime history also provides clues to the pattern of trade and geopolitical conflicts at sea. According to Till
(2009), major trade routes such as the Straits of Malacca and the South China Sea have long been the focal point of
the world's great powers. Through a historical approach, we can understand that this path will continue to be
strategic in the future, with the potential for greater conflict or competition due to economic growth and increasing
resource requirements. History, thus, provides the basis for understanding the factors that are most likely to continue
to influence the future of the world's oceans.

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In addition to looking at history, the use of modern technology in data collection also allows for more accurate
predictions of ocean changes. Satellite technology, climate models, and big data are now being used to monitor
changes in ocean temperatures, current patterns, and seawater acidity levels. With this technology, researchers can
predict the effects of climate change, such as sea level rise and sea warming, which will affect marine habitats and
human life in coastal areas (Folke et al., 2016). Today’s empirical data also helps predict the effects of ocean
pollution, including the problem of plastic waste and toxic chemicals that threaten marine life. According to Jam
Beck et al. (2015), the large amount of plastic entering the ocean each year is expected to continue to increase,
causing various threats to marine species and marine ecosystems. Based on the current collection of plastic pollution
data, future forecasts suggest an increase in this pollution rate, unless immediate preventive measures are taken.
Therefore, today's data-driven approach provides a clearer picture of potential ocean problems in the future.

Reliability of Predicting the Future of the Ocean

The reliability of the forecast of the future of the ocean depends on several factors. First, it depends on the accuracy
of historical data and current data. History does not always repeat itself with similar patterns, and new factors such
as global climate change introduce dynamics that may not have occurred in human history. According to Gidley
(2017), future history can only be a guide, since the predictions made depend on ever-changing patterns and are not
always linear.

Second, ocean forecasting also relies on the ability of climate models and big data to accurately process large
amounts of information. For example, while climate models can give a rough idea of ocean warming, they cannot
predict all the possibilities that exist because there are unknown factors that can influence the forecast results. This is
because scientific data is tentative, and new developments in technology and knowledge can change the way we
understand environmental phenomena (Bell, 2003).Third, the reliability of predictions depends on the human factor,
which is the extent to which proactive actions are taken to overcome the challenges faced. For example, if drastic
measures are taken to reduce plastic pollution or control climate change, the predicted scenario could change.
Therefore, the reliability of these predictions is subjective and depends on the global and local actions taken to meet
the challenges of the ocean.

Discussion and Findings:-

Studying the history of the future of the ocean is essential to understanding and addressing the upcoming challenges
of the ocean. This study helps us avoid repeating past mistakes, predict the effects of climate change, ensure
maritime security, support effective conservation policies, and prepare societies for a sustainable future. In a world
increasingly facing ocean challenges, the ocean future history approach offers valuable insights to help us shape a
more responsible and sustainable future. Through careful study and good planning, we can ensure that future
generations will continue to enjoy the benefits provided by the ocean

Overall, the approach based on history and current data provides a strong basis for predicting the future of the ocean.
Despite this, the reliability of these predictions is still limited by the factors of data accuracy, complex
environmental dynamics, and human readiness to respond to the challenges faced. Approaches based on history and
the present provide guidance, but constant changes in science and technology, as well as human actions, play a
crucial role in determining the future of the world's oceans. Predictions of the future of the ocean need to be
constantly reviewed and refined to produce a more realistic and reliable picture.

The theory of the future history of the ocean plays an important role in helping us understand and predict changes
that may occur in the future. Through the theory of maritime climate change, maritime geopolitical theory, and the
theory of maritime economic continuity, researchers can analyze the challenges faced by marine ecosystems and
sea-dependent societies. The use of these theories also aids in formulating more effective policies and strategies to
ensure a more sustainable and secure ocean future. In a world that is increasingly vulnerable to global challenges,
the study and understanding of the future history of the ocean is essential to ensure that the ocean continues to be a
valuable resource for future generations.

Overall, the history of the future of the ocean is a critical approach in confronting increasingly pressing ocean
challenges. Through historical analysis and scientific data, we can create better scenarios and plans for the future of
the world's oceans. The combination of future history and ocean history allows us not only to understand the
important role of the ocean in human history, but also to prepare ourselves to ensure the balance of the marine
ecosystem and the continuity of human civilization that depends on the ocean. In the face of the challenges of

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climate change and ocean overexploitation, the ocean's future historical approach gives hope that we can design
more responsible and sustainable actions.

Conclusion:-
At first glance, the ocean may seem like something that has no history of its future, as it is only considered an
unchanging natural resource. However, the ocean is undergoing significant changes due to human exploitation,
climate change, and global geopolitical dynamics. Therefore, the role of predicting the future history of the ocean is
important to understand how these changes can impact the survival of maritime resources, marine biodiversity, and
international security.However, debate still exists between marine science and marine history about the most
accurate method of making these predictions. Ocean science tends to rely on quantitative data and mathematical
models to predict phenomena such as sea level and ocean temperature, while marine history emphasizes the
importance of historical patterns and social context in understanding them. These two fields complement each other;
Ocean science provides empirical data and models, while ocean history provides a more holistic and comprehensive
perspective on the role of humans in transforming marine ecosystems.

Given this importance, the steps that need to be taken are to combine scientific knowledge with historical
perspectives to formulate more sustainable marine management policies and strategies. Data-based maritime policy
formulation and an understanding of history can ensure that we are able to address future threats while preserving
the ocean for future generations. Overall, predicting the future history of the ocean is not just an academic endeavor,
but a necessity in a world that is increasingly vulnerable to the challenges of climate change, pollution, and resource
conflicts. By combining insights from ocean science and marine history, we can design proactive and effective
measures to protect one of the most valuable natural resources for human well-being and global ecosystems

Bibliography:-
1. Bell, W. (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era. Transaction Publishers.
2. Folke, C., Carpenter, S. R., Walker, B., Scheffer, M., Chapin, T., &Rockstrom, J. (2016). Resilience thinking:
Integrating resilience, adaptability, and transformability. Ecology and Society, 15(4), 20.
3. Gidley, J. M. (2017). The Future: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press.
4. Horden, P., & Purcell, N. (2000). The Corrupting Sea: A Study of Mediterranean History. Blackwell.
5. McNeill, J. R. (2010). Something New Under the Sun: An Environmental History of the Twentieth-Century
World. W.W. Norton.
6. Rozwadowski, H. (2005). Fathoming the Ocean: The Discovery and Exploration of the Deep Sea. Harvard
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7. Till, G. (2009). Sea power: A Guide for the Twenty-First Century. Routledge
8. Jam Beck, J. R., Geyer, R., Wilcox, C., Siegler, T. R., Perryman, M., Andray, A., ... & Law, K. L. (2015).
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