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The 7th International Conference on Climate Change 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1016 (2022) 012003 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1016/1/012003

Prediction of drought vulnerability and its mitigation

measures in the Northern Coast of Java, Indonesia

Diah Auliyani*1, Nining Wahyuningrum1, Agung Budi Supangat1 and Tyas

Mutiara Basuki1
1
Watershed Management Technology Center, Ministry of Environment and Forestry,
Jl. Jenderal Ahmad Yani - Pabelan, Kartasura, Central Java, Indonesia
*Corresponding author: [email protected]

Abstract. Climate change causes hydrometeorological disasters in Indonesia more frequently

happen. One of them is drought. Drought reduces water availability and decreases agricultural
production. It is necessary to select soil and water conservation techniques according to the level
of vulnerability to mitigate losses. We researched Capluk Watershed which is often experiencing
drought. The watershed is located on the Northern Coast of Java. The aims of this study were (1)
to analyze the level of drought vulnerability and (2) to recommend drought mitigation measures.
The drought vulnerability was analyzed spatially using a modification method proposed by
Pramono and Savitri in 2019. The data used included rainfall, the number of dry months, actual
annual evapotranspiration, geological formations, land systems, and distance to surface water
sources. The analysis shows that 73% of the Capluk Watershed has a moderate vulnerability
level to drought. The high level of vulnerability only exists in the upstream area, which is part
of the karst landscape. We suggest that drought management focuses on the areas with moderate
and high vulnerability levels. The community has been conducted water conservation by making
ponds in the agricultural land and wells as water storage structures in the residential areas. In
addition, we recommend several vegetative techniques such as planting annual crops with low
evapotranspiration, and reforestation using Multi-purpose Tree Species (MPTS) or tree species
with low evapotranspiration rates.

Keywords : drought, prediction, water conservation, Capluk Watershed

1. Introduction
Climate change has an influence on the hydrological system in watersheds. Climate change causes
rainfall to fluctuate more volatile [1], so its triggers the occurrence of hydrometeorological disasters
[2,3]. In Indonesia, rainfall is the utmost input in the hydrological system [4]. Rainfall which is lower
than its average is the earliest sign of drought [5]. If this continues happening, it will affect soil moisture,
river discharge, groundwater, ecosystems, and community welfare [6,7]. Agriculture is the first sector
disturbed by drought [8,9]. Compared to other disasters, drought has the biggest impact [7,10]. It is
because difficulty in predicting the beginning and the end of drought period [11]. Droughts can occur
for months or even years.
Rembang is the regency on the northern coast of Central Java which is often experiencing drought
[12]. In Regent Regulation Number 31 of 2020 concerning Changes in the Strategic Plan of the Regional
Disaster Management Agency for 2016-2021, it is stated that the entire region of Rembang was a
drought-prone area. There was a threat to the agricultural sector, therefore it is necessary to deal with
drought to anticipate and reduce these losses.

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The 7th International Conference on Climate Change 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1016 (2022) 012003 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1016/1/012003

Drought management must be carried out on a priority scale [13]. This priority can be determined
according to the level of its vulnerability to drought. Climate change has caused a shift in rainfall patterns
that have differences on drought vulnerability in the watershed. In addition, other biophysical conditions
also reflect the level of drought vulnerability. As generally known, only a few watersheds have sufficient
monitoring tools and available data [14,15]. Therefore, it is essential in selection of the method for
determining drought vulnerability according to available data.
Pramono & Savitri [16] have proposed a modification method in calculating the level of drought
vulnerability using data that are relatively easy to obtain. This method has been applied in Wonogiri
Regency, and the results were able to describe the actual conditions. Based on that, this paper used their
method in predicting the vulnerability level of drought in the study area. The objectives of this study are
(1) to analyze the level of drought vulnerability and (2) to recommend drought mitigation measures.
This information is essential in planning and managing a watershed, especially in reducing the losses
due to drought.

2. Materials and methods

2.1. Materials
This study was performed in the Capluk Watershed. Capluk is on the northern coast of Java Island,
precisely in Rembang Regency. The entire area includes 218.4 sq km, expanding from 528271.89 mE
to 544956.96 mE longitude and 9238128.74 mS to 9260832.87 mS latitude. Administratively, the study
area located in 4 districts, Rembang, Kaliori, Sulang, Sumber, and Bulu (Figure 1). The altitude varies
between 0 and 255 m asl.

Figure 1. The study area map, Capluk Watershed

The data used were rainfall data and several thematic maps such as land cover, geological formation,
and land systems maps. This study utilized daily rainfall data from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed
Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) between 1991 and 2020 [17]. The CHIRPS daily data on each
grid was assessed into monthly data, then analyzed into dry month rainfall data (less than 100
mm/month).

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The 7th International Conference on Climate Change 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1016 (2022) 012003 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1016/1/012003

2.2. Methods
The level of drought vulnerability was evaluated spatially using the scoring technique (Table 1). The
estimation refers to Pramono & Savitri method [16] (Equation 1), where DVL = drought vulnerability
level; DMR = dry month rainfall (mm); AAE = actual annual evapotranspiration; GEO = geological
formation; LSS = land system; DSW = distance to surface water sources. Groundchecks were
undertaken to compare the result with the actual conditions.

DVL = 0.3 DMR + 0.175 AAE + 0.2 GEO + 0.175 LSS + 0.15 DSW …………………………………(1)

Table 1. The parameters, classes, and score in Pramono & Savitri method [16]
No Parameters Classes Scores
1 Dry month rainfall (mm) >60 1
45-60 2
30-45 3
15-30 4
<15 5
2 Actual annual <750 (Residential area) 1
evapotranspiration (mm) 751-1000 (dryland agriculture) 2
1001-1500 (forest/ state) 3
1501-2000 (non-irrigated paddy field) 4
>2000 (irrigated paddy field) 5
3 Geological formation Volcano 1
Mixed volcano & mountain folds 2
Mountain folds 3
Sediment 4
Limestone 5
4 Land system Swamps 1
Alluvial valley 2
Plain 3
Alluvial fan & terrace 4
Mountains & hills 5
5 Distance to surface water 0-100 1
sources (m) 101-200 2
201-300 3
301-400 4
>400 5

The drought mitigation measures were recommended on a priority scale matching the level of
drought vulnerability and legal status of land in Indonesia [13,18]. The legal status of land in Indonesia
were divided into forest and cultivation areas. The map belongs to the Ministry of Environment and
Forestry (MoEF), the Republic of Indonesia which is freely accessible at webgis.menlhk.go.id.

3. Results and discussion

3.1. Description of Capluk Watershed

Most of the study area is flat with steep slopes in the upstream area. The slopes range from 0 to 52%.
According to MoEF, the major landcover in 2019 is agricultural area (66%) following by plantation

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The 7th International Conference on Climate Change 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1016 (2022) 012003 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1016/1/012003

(17%), settlements (13%), and ponds (4%) as presented in Figure 2a and 2b. The soil types obtained
from Regional Physical Planning Program for Transmigration (RePPPROT) comprise Calsiustolls,
Haplustalfs, Hydraquents, Tropaquepts, and Ustropepts. The existing geological formations include the
Alluvium, Bulu, Ledok, Mundu, Ngrayong, and Tuban formations (Figure 2c). Approximately 2,306.27
ha (11%) in the upstream Capluk Watershed is a karst area following the Minister of Energy and Mineral
Resources No. 17 2012 concerning karst landscape.

(a) (b) (c)

Figure 2. Landcover (a), legal status of land (b), and geological formation (c) of Capluk Watershed

3.2. Rainfall distribution

In the last 30 years, the average annual rainfall was 1,721 mm. The peak of the rainy season occurred
between December and January, while the dry season during June to October. Figure 3 shows the rainfall
temporal distribution of the study area. The dry month rainfall spatially ranged from 45.2–59.9 mm. In
calculating the level of drought vulnerability, monthly rainfall has the same score for all watershed areas.
The spatial distribution of rainfall is strongly influenced by the size of the watershed. The smaller the
watershed, the rainfall will tend to be uniform, and vice versa.

Figure 3. The rainfall temporal distribution of Capluk Watershed

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The 7th International Conference on Climate Change 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1016 (2022) 012003 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1016/1/012003

3.3. The level of drought vulnerability

Most of the study areas have a moderate level of drought vulnerability. Figure 4 shows the distribution
of vulnerability to drought. The upstream areas with a high-level vulnerability are dominated Bulu
Formation which consists of limestone and karst [19]. Due to the nature of karst which is composed of
carbonate rock that has many crevices and is easily soluble in water, the surface drainage system of karst
does not develop. Karst is dominated by the subsurface drainage system [19,20]. Thus, even though the
karst is covered by forest vegetation, the karst is not able to hold water on the surface. In detail, the level
of vulnerability to drought in each district is presented in Table 2.

Figure 4. The level of vulnerability to drought in Capluk Watershed

Table 2. The level of vulnerability to drought in each district

Legal status of land Vulnerability level to drought (Ha)

Districts
in Indonesia Low Moderate High
Forest areas Bulu 5.3 2,146.7 54.0
Sulang 15.2 854.5 0
Sumber 11.7 748.3 0
Non-Forest areas Bulu 339.6 2,834.2 155.0
Sulang 1,548.6 4,486.7 0
Sumber 599.1 1,924.1 0
Kaliori 2,077.0 2,177.0 0
Rembang 1,071.4 723.3 0
5,668 15,895 209
Total
26% 73% 1%

Surface water sources are a determinant factor in managing drought. There were several sources of
surface water in Capluk Watershed, including rivers, reservoirs, and agricultural ponds. The water level

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The 7th International Conference on Climate Change 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1016 (2022) 012003 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1016/1/012003

of this surface water source shrinks or even dries up during the dry season. Rivers in the watershed also
experienced dry. The short stream network causes the rivers to dry up during the dry season, especially
in the upper and middle parts of the watershed. The upper part did not provide optimal function as a
catchment area due to the karst landscape. Karst geology is characterized by moderate to high water
passing rates and scarce groundwater production, making it difficult for water to be stored and available
in the soil layer. Therefore, areas with karst landscapes generally have a high level of drought
vulnerability.

3.4. The mitigation measure to drought

The mitigation measures to drought management in the Capluk Watershed focus on areas with
moderate and high levels of vulnerability. The alternative treatment chosen needs to consider
the legal status of land in Indonesia. Table 3 describes the mitigation measures to cope with
drought according to the level of vulnerability and legal status of land.

Table 3. Drought mitigation measures in Capluk Watershed

Legal status of Vulnerability to drought

land in Indonesia Low Moderate High
Forest Maintenance Reforestation using 1. Reforestation using MPTS
activities Multi-purpose Tree 2. Reforestation using tree
Species (MPTS) species with low
evapotranspiration rates,
such as teak and mahagony
Non-Forest
Agricultural area Maintenance 1. Alley cropping 1. Alley cropping
activities 2. Seasonal cropping 2. Seasonal cropping pattern
pattern management management
3. Planting ground cover 3. Planting ground cover crops
crops such as legumes such as legumes
4. Water conservation, such as
ponds
Fishery area Maintenance Agro-silvofishery 1. Agro-silvofishery
activities 2. Water conservation, such as
ponds
Residential area Maintenance Planting protective trees 1. Planting protective trees
activities around public facilities around public facilities
2. Water conservation, such as
infiltration wells and rain
harvesting instalations
Source: Modification from Paimin et al. [13]

Drought is an annual phenomenon in the Capluk Watershed. Agricultural land in this watershed is
mostly used for growing drought-tolerant seasonal crops. During field observations, part of the
agricultural land was planted with tobacco, while some was abandoned (without management). The
government and community build several ponds and wells to support the agricultural sector, especially
during the dry season. These constructions collect rainwater to meet water needs in agricultural areas.
Moreover, residents also build storage wells in their settlements to cope with drought.

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The 7th International Conference on Climate Change 2021 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1016 (2022) 012003 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1016/1/012003

4. Conclusions
The study area was dominated by the moderate-level vulnerability to drought, 73%. The high-level
vulnerability was only found in the upper part of the watershed, the Karst area. We recommend the
mitigation measures to drought focus on high and moderate-level vulnerability areas. The construction
of ponds and wells are used by the community for adaptations to drought.

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Acknowledgement
We express our gratitude to Watershed Management Technology Center (WMTC) for accommodating
the facilities to support this study. The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their
valuable comments to revise this article. All authors have an equal contribution.