Angeo 32 41 2014

Open Access
Ann. Geophys., 32, 41–55, 2014

www.ann-geophys.net/32/41/2014/ Annales
doi:10.5194/angeo-32-41-2014
© Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
Geophysicae
China’s dimming and brightening: evidence, causes and

hydrological implications
Y. W. Wang1,2 and Y. H. Yang1
1 Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Laboratory of Agricultural Water-saving, Center for Agricultural
Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 286 Huaizhong Road,
Shijiazhuang 050021, China
2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Correspondence to: Y. H. Yang ([email protected])
Received: 19 July 2013 – Revised: 28 October 2013 – Accepted: 16 December 2013 – Published: 28 January 2014
Abstract. There is growing evidence that, corresponding to 1 Introduction

global dimming and brightening, surface solar radiation and
sunshine hours over China have undergone decadal fluctu-
ations during the 1960s–2000s. The results of a number of Incoming solar radiation is either reflected back to the outer
these analyses are, however, very different. In this study, space or absorbed by Earth’s atmosphere and surface (IPCC,
we synthesize reliable results and conclusively address re- 2007). The absorbed fraction is the primary energy source
cent advances and insufficiencies in studies on dimming and that governs a wide range of physical, biological and chem-
brightening in China. A temporally and spatially prevalent ical processes on our planet, including climate systems, hy-
dimming trend is noted in surface solar radiation, direct solar drological cycle, plant growth, etc. (Wild, 2009, 2012a; Wild
radiation and sunshine hours since the 1960s. Meanwhile, the et al., 2012). Human activity increasingly releases tiny parti-
changing trend in diffuse solar radiation is less pronounced. cles and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which in turn
Increasing anthropogenic aerosol loading is regarded as the gradually modifies climate trends and energy flows in the at-
most plausible explanation for China’s dimming. The bright- mosphere (Ramanathan et al., 2001; Wild, 2012b). Aerosol
ening trend since 1990, which mainly occurs in southeastern load increase in the atmosphere could induce stronger reflec-
China and in the spring season, is weak and insignificant. tion of incoming solar radiation and decline in the amount of
The reverse in the solar radiation trend is associated with cli- solar radiation absorbed by the surface (the so-called surface
mate change by cloud suppression and slowdown in anthro- solar radiation, SSR). This phenomenon, popularly known
pogenic emissions. The future solar radiation trend in China as “global dimming”, was observed in the 1950s–1980s with
could largely depend on the development of air quality con- a magnitude ranging from 3 to 9 W m−2 at widespread lo-
trol. Other potential driving factors such as wind speed, water cations across the world (Wild, 2012a), especially in large
vapor and surface albedo are also non-negligible in specific urban areas (Alpert et al., 2005). It is important to note that
regions of China. Hydrological implications of dimming and the term “global” in “global dimming” originally referred to
brightening in China lack systematic investigation. However, “global radiation” (a synonym of SSR), rather than depicting
the fact that solar radiation and pan evaporation trends in the spatial scale of the globe (Wild, 2009). Through coun-
China track a similar curve in 1990 further suggests that the teracting the increase in thermal radiation resulted from in-
pan evaporation paradox could be partly resolved by changes creasing greenhouse gases, global dimming, the reduction in
in solar radiation. radiative energy at Earth’s surface, could mask the effect of
global warming (Wild, 2012a).
Keywords. Atmospheric composition and structure Recent studies have shown that dimming did not per-
(aerosols and particles) – hydrology (water–energy interac- sist into the 1990s, which instead transitioned into bright-
tions) – meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (radiative ening in many regions of the world (Pinker et al., 2005;
processes) Wild et al., 2005). The recovery in SSR (in the range of
Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

42 Y. W. Wang and Y. H. Yang: China’s dimming and brightening
1–4 W m−2 ) mainly occurred in heavily industrialized re- response to global dimming (Roderick and Farquhar, 2002;
gions (Wild, 2012a). In some non-industrialized countries Liu et al., 2004; Qian et al., 2006).
(e.g., India and Zimbabwe), dimming is still being experi- This review therefore attempts to conclusively address the
enced (Wild et al., 2005). A similar trend was observed in evidence of dimming and brightening in China, determine
sunshine hours (SH) in the contiguous United States (Angell the primary driver from the two most likely candidates of
and Korshover, 1978), western Europe (Sanchez-Lorenzo et clouds and aerosols, and discuss the possible implications of
al., 2008) and Japan (Stanhill and Cohen, 2008) since the dimming and brightening for pan evaporation processes.
1980s and earlier. SH, which quantifies the length of time
with direct solar radiation ≥ 120 W m−2 in each day, is a
widely used proxy for SSR. 2 Evidence of dimming and brightening in China
Two fundamental ways to change SSR include (1) exter-
nally changing incoming solar radiation by changing Earth’s 2.1 Dimming and brightening in surface solar radiation
orbital parameters or solar output; and (2) internally chang-
ing the reflected fraction of solar radiation via changing The national solar radiation monitoring network, consisting
cloud characteristics, radiatively active gases (especially wa- of 122 stations in mainly urban or suburb regions across
ter vapor), aerosol masses and optical properties or surface China (Fig. 1), was established in 1957 (Liang and Xia,
albedo (IPCC, 2007; Wild, 2009). The effects of Earth’s 2005). The solar radiation instruments were later updated.
orbital parameters and water vapor on observed decadal Before 1993, solar radiation instruments were developed af-
variations in SSR are largely negligible. This is because ter the models of the former Soviet Union. These instru-
Earth’s orbital parameters vary substantially on geologi- ments included the Yanishevsky thermoelectric pyranometer
cal timescales greater than 10 000 yr, and the magnitude of for measuring SSR and diffuse solar radiation (DfSR) and the
change in water vapor in recent decades is insufficient for Yanishevsky thermoelectric actinometer for measuring direct
a significant fluctuation in SSR (Hoyt and Schatten, 1993; solar radiation (DiSR) (Xia, 2010a; Ye et al., 2010; Tang et
Ramanathan and Vogelmann, 1997; Solomon et al., 2010). al., 2011), with respective error estimates of ≤5 % and ≤3 %
Based on IPCC (2007) estimates, among all the negative (Shi et al., 2008). China started making its own instruments
radiative forcings resulted from human activities (e.g., to- after 1993 and replaced the SSR/DfSR recorders with the
tal aerosol, surface albedo and ozone), aerosols induce the DFY-4 pyranometer and the DiSR recorder with the DFY-3
largest effect. To a great extent, therefore, global dimming pyrheliometer (Xia, 2010a; Ye et al., 2010; Tang et al., 2011),
and brightening should be caused by clouds and aerosols, with errors not exceeding 5 % and 2 %, respectively (Shi et
which respectively denote the impact of climate change and al., 2008). Data recorded by the instruments are governed by
anthropogenic disturbances (Shi et al., 2008; Gilgen et al., China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and are avail-
2009; Ohmura, 2009; Streets et al., 2009; Wild, 2009; Xia, able at China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System
2010b). So far, it remains inconclusive whether clouds or (CMDS, http://cdc.cma.gov.cn/). Preliminary quality checks
aerosols are the main driver of recent changes in SSR. In- are also performed by CMA to ensure that both DiSR and
creasing studies tend to support the concept that while clouds DfSR are lower than SSR for daily data (see interpretation
effectively modulate SSR at annual scale, pollution-related of documented data sets). However, the simple quality con-
aerosols determine the variability of SSR at decadal scale trol criterion could not eliminate the potential accuracy issues
(Qian et al., 2006, 2007; Wang et al., 2012b; Wang et al., related with instrument change, artificial operational factors
2013). Generally, global and regional average trends in SSR and station location change (Shi et al., 2008). In an attempt to
are in line with those in anthropogenic aerosol emissions resolve this issue, Shi et al. (2008) introduced a set of quality
(Stern, 2006; Streets et al., 2006, 2009; Wild, 2012a). assessment (QA) algorithms, including a physical threshold
Variations in SSR could alter the latent heat flux and evap- test (QA1), a global radiation sunshine duration test (QA2),
oration energy equivalent, which in turn changes the inten- and a standard deviation test applied to time series of annu-
sity of the hydrological cycle (Ramanathan et al., 2001; Wild, ally averaged solar global radiation (QA3). Recently, Tang
2009, 2012a; Wild and Liepert, 2010). Since the 1950s, de- et al. (2010) presented a new quality control scheme that in-
clines in pan evaporation have been detected not only in the cludes two physical threshold tests, a test to remove monthly-
Northern Hemisphere (Peterson et al., 1995; Chattopadhyay mean values with evident systematic and operational errors,
and Hulme, 1997; Liu et al., 2004), but also in the Southern and a test to eliminate the data with more insidious errors
Hemisphere (Roderick and Farquhar, 2005; Rayner, 2007). using the artificial neural network (ANN) method. Scientific
This is contrary to the expectation that global warming in- results based on screened data by these strict quality controls
creases evaporation from terrestrial water bodies. This dis- have proven to be highly reliable.
crepancy between observations and expectations is termed Consistent with the global SSR trend, there is abundant ev-
“pan evaporation paradox” (Brutsaert and Parlange, 1998). idence of the “from dimming to brightening” transition in the
Increasingly, research proposes that the downward pan evap- SSR trend in China in the past half century (Wild et al., 2005;
oration trend is rather not a real paradox but simply a Shi et al., 2008; Norris and Wild, 2009; Ohmura, 2009; Wang
Ann. Geophys., 32, 41–55, 2014 www.ann-geophys.net/32/41/2014/

Y. W. Wang and Y. H. Yang: China’s dimming and brightening 43
Table 1. Magnitudes of trends in surface solar radiation (W m−2

decade−1 ) in China. Note that # denotes value not provided, a is
922 Table 1. Magnitudes
original of trends in surface
value converted into solar (W m–2of
radiation unit
common decade –1
W m) −2in China.
decadeNote−1
that,
923 # b
denotes value not provided, a
is original value converted
and is value estimated by Wild (2009). Dark grey bars are for into common unit of W m–2
–1 b
924 decade , andtrend
dimming is value
andestimated by Wild
light grey (2009).
bars forDark grey bars aretrend.
brightening for dimming trend and
925 light grey bars for brightening trend.
Number
Reference 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
of sites
Che et al. ( 2005) 64 –4.5
# –9.1 # #
Liang and Xia (2005) 42 –4.9b
Qian et al. (2006) 85 –3.1
Yang et al. (2007) 60 –3.4a
Shi et al. (2008) 72 –3.8b
# –7b 2.7b
Norris and Wild (2009) 23 –11 4
Ohmura (2009) 66 –12 #
Wang et al. (2009) 30 –8.8a 1.4a
Tang et al. (2011) 96 –2.3
–2.5 0.4
Wild et al. (2012a) # –7 3 –4
Yang and Yang (2012) 54 –4.5
Wang et al., 2011; Wild and Schmucki, 2011). In the west-

932
ern and northeastern parts of China, the decline in SSR is
933 Fig. 1. Geographical locations of the 756 meteorological stations, comparatively small (Shi et al., 2008; Wang et al., 2011).
934 122 solar
Fig. 1. radiation
Geographical stations
locations and
of the 756 120 environmental
meteorological monitoring
stations, 122 solar sta-
radiation stations However, the observed seasonal dimming trends are gen-
935 tions
and 120inenvironmental
China. monitoring stations in China.
erally inconsistent. Based on screened data via quality as-
sessment tests, Shi et al. (2008) concluded that the high-
est SSR decline is in winter (4.82 % decade−1 ), followed by
et al., 2009; Tang et al., 2011). However, several studies have autumn (2.63 % decade−1 ), summer (2.5 % decade−1 ) and
noted a sustained decline of 3.1–4.9 W m−2 decade−1 in lin- spring (1.39 % decade−1 ). Whereas Wang et al. (2009) as-
ear trend of SSR across China in the 1950s–2000s (Liang serted that a significant decline occurs in the period from
and Xia, 2005; Qian et al., 2006; Yang et al., 2007; Yang March to August, which accounts for 55–85 % of the an-
and Yang, 2012). This is because marginal brightening (in nual reduction. This finding was supported by Xia (2010a),
the range of 0.4–4 W m−2 decade−1 ) after 1990 fails to ade- who noted that summer and spring are the seasons with the
quately compensate for strong dimming (in the range of 2.5– 35 strongest dimming rate in China. The uncertainties further
−2 −1
12 W m decade ) in the 1950s–1980s (Table 1). stress the need for rigorous data-quality control in trend anal-
Ohmura (2009) proposed that the rate of dimming in China yses of solar radiation. It is also worth noting that data sets
32
is the largest in the world. This inference is worth question- used by Shi et al. (2008), Wang et al. (2009) and Xia (2010a)
ing when the dimming phase between the 1950s and 1980s cover 122, 30 and 45 stations across China for the periods
in Table 1 is further examined. The magnitudes of SSR de- 1957–2000, 1961–2003 and 1961–2005, respectively. The
clines (7–12 W m−2 decade−1 ) estimated by foreign schol- different data sets added another layer of uncertainty to the
ars (Norris and Wild, 2009; Ohmura, 2009; Wild, 2012a) are trend analysis of seasonal SSR.
particularly larger than those (2.5–9.1 W m−2 decade−1 ) pre- China’s brightening depicts a quite different scenario.
sented by Chinese researchers (Che et al., 2005; Shi et al., Contrary to dimming which continues to persist in northern
2008; Wang et al., 2009; Tang et al., 2011). Especially in the China after 1990, Table 2 suggests that brightening is less
recent study of Tang et al. (2011), which combines quality- spatially coherent and is mainly in southern China (Ohmura,
controlled observation data with two radiation models; the 2006; Yang et al., 2007; Xia, 2010a; Wang et al., 2011;
decline in SSR across China is estimated at 2.5 W m−2 Wild and Schmucki, 2011). While brightening in southeast-
decade−1 for the period 1961–1989 (Fig. 2a), which is no ern China mainly occurs in spring, it mainly occurs dur-
longer stronger in magnitude than the global average. These ing the other seasons in southwestern China (Xia, 2010a).
differences suggest the importance of data quality assess- There is still a debate on China’s brightening in the aca-
ment and control. It is necessary to note that distinct data demic sphere. A sustained brightening trend in China since
sets with varied spatial coverage and timescales could also 1990 was noted by Shi et al. (2008), Norris and Wild (2009),
influence the results of trend analyses of SSR. Dimming in Ohmura (2009), Wang et al. (2009) – see Table 1. Exclud-
China reached the lowest value in the 1980s (Wen et al., ing the effect of instrument change, Tang et al. (2011) argued
2008; Wang et al., 2011; Ma et al., 2012). From Table 2, the that pervious studies overestimated the magnitude of bright-
most dramatic decline of SSR takes place in regions around ening in China, as the trend in SSR since 1990 is inclined
southern, eastern and central China (Liu et al., 2004; Liang to stabilize rather than to rise (Fig. 2a). At the same time,
and Xia, 2005; Ohmura, 2006; Qian et al., 2006; Xia, 2010a; Che et al. (2005) and Wild et al. (2009) reported a renewed
www.ann-geophys.net/32/41/2014/ Ann. Geophys., 32, 41–55, 2014

Table 2. Regional characteristics of surface solar radiation trends in China for the 1960s–1980s (dimming phase) and 1990s–2000s (bright-
ening phase).
1960s–1980s 1990s–2000s
Number
Reference of sites Strong dimming Slight dimming Dimming Brightening
Liu et al. (2004) 85 Southeastern China
Liang and Xia (2005) 42 Southern and eastern China
Ohmura (2006) 66 Southeastern China Northwestern China Northern China Southeastern China
Qian et al. (2006) 85 Central, eastern and southern China
Yang et al. (2007) 60 Eastern China Northeastern China Northern China, Southeastern and southwestern China,
and Yunnan area and northern Xinjiang Tibetan Plateau
Shi et al. (2008) 72 Southern China Northeastern and western China
Xia (2010a) 45 Southeastern China Southwestern China Northern China Southern China
Wang et al. (2011) 40 Central and southern China Western arid/semi-arid Northern China and western Southern and southwestern
regions, northeastern China arid/semi-arid regions China, Tibetan Plateau
Wild and Schmucki (2011) 13 Southeastern China Northwestern China Northwestern China Southeastern China
181 7.0 1960s–1990s (Che et al., 2005; Liang and Xia, 2005; Shi
Surface solar radiation (W m )
(a) (b)
–2
179
et al., 2008) and moderately increases thereafter (Wen et
Sunshine hours (h d )
6.6
–1
177
175 6.2
al., 2008; Zhao et al., 2009). The geographical distribution
173 0.04
−0.002
of the variation in DiSR is very similar to that in SSR.
5.8
171
−0.25* −0.028*
It primarily declines in southern and eastern China but at
169
167
5.4 much smaller rate in western and northeastern China (Liang
165 5.0 and Xia, 2005; Shi et al., 2008; Zhao et al., 2009). Recent
1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
1800 0.35 110 studies on seasonal trends in DiSR have drawn almost
(c) (d)
1750
0.32 100 the opposite conclusions. Based on estimated DiSR from
Pan evaporation (mm)
1700
0.003*
SH data obtained from 70 stations across China, Zhao et
7.9* 0.29 90
AOD
al. (2009) noted that the decline in DiSR is strongest in

API
1650
0.26 80
1600 summer, followed by spring, autumn and winter for the
−5.4* 0.23 −1.844* 70 period 1960–2005. However, based on observed DiSR data
1550
1500 0.20 60
from 14 stations across China, Ma et al. (2011) observed
1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
Year Year that DiSR decline is most obvious in winter and autumn
936
and insignificant in spring and summer for the period
Fig. 2. Time series comparisons of annually averaged surface solar 1961–2009. The inconsistency of the results could be due to
937 Fig. 2. Time series comparisons of annually averaged surface solar radiation (A, data from
radiation (a, data from Tang et al., 2011), sunshine hours (b, data differences in the number of samples and length of periods
938 Tang et al. (2011)), sunshine hours (B, data from Wang et al. (2013)), pan evaporation (C,
939
from Wang et al., 2013), pan evaporation (c, data from Liu et al.,
data from Liu et al. (2011a)), AOD and API (D, data from Streets et al. (2008) and Wang et al. of the analyses, as well as limitations in surface observation
9402011a), AOD
(2013) for andand
1980−2000 API (d, data
2001−2011, from Streets
respectively) over Chinaetforal.,
the2008 and Wang
1960s−2000s. Blue et
of DiSR in China.
941al.,lines
2013
denotefor 1980–2000
linear and
trends in dimming phase2001–2011, respectively)
and red lines indicate over China
linear trends in brightening
942forphase.
DfSR shows a less pronounced trend of decline in China,
the Values
1960s–2000s. Blue
are trend slopes and lines
asterisks denote
denote linear
a significant trends
trend at the 95% in dimming
confidence
943phase
level. and red lines indicate linear trends in brightening phase. Val- which is at the average rate of 0.92–0.95 % decade−1
ues are trend slopes and asterisks denote a significant trend at the (about 0.72 W m−2 decade−1 ) during the 1960s–1990s (Che
95 % confidence level. et al., 2005; Shi et al., 2008). Annual average DfSR varies
smoothly before 1980, significantly declines in 1981–1990
(Che et al., 2005), and then rebounds till 2010 (Ren et al.,
dimming in China around 2000. All of these results come to 2013). However, Qian et al. (2007) noted a steady DfSR in-
an agreement that brightening in China is not as significant
36 crease in China under cloud-free skies for the period 1961–
as in industrialized nations. 1992. DfSR depicts a more complex and heterogeneous spa-
tial pattern. While in the 1960s–1990s sites with downward
2.2 Dimming and brightening in direct and diffuse solar trends are mainly in northwestern China and the Tibetan
radiation Plateau, those with upward trends are largely in coastal areas
and the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River (Liang and
SSR is total shortwave radiation, constituting the direct com- Xia, 2005; Shi et al., 2008; Ma et al., 2011). From 1980, the
ponent from the Sun (DiSR) and diffuse component from most evident increase and decrease in DfSR are respectively
the sky (DfSR), incident on the horizontal surface (Xia et in the Tibetan Plateau and northwestern China (Ren et al.,
al., 2006; Qian et al., 2007; Wild, 2009). Variations in SSR 2013). No obvious seasonal trend in DfSR is detected since
closely correspond with the changes in the trend and magni- 1960 (Liang and Xia, 2005; Ma et al., 2011). With the ex-
tude of DiSR and DfSR. ception of spring, DfSR increases in trend in all the seasons
In China, DiSR decreases in the range of 7.5– during the period 1981–2010 (Ren et al., 2013).
8.6 % decade−1 (about 6.6 W m−2 decade−1 ) during

The reversal in SSR from dimming to brightening could

therefore be due to changes in DiSR. It is well established
that DiSR applies essentially to solar energy devices while
DfSR applies more effectively to photosynthetic plants. This
is because DfSR penetrates deeper into vegetation canopy
and reaches a larger fraction of the biomass (Che et al., 2005;
Pinker et al., 2005). Regardless of solar dimming, increas-
944
ing DfSR as a result of stronger aerosol and cloud scatter-
ing could explain enhanced photosynthesis in forests or crop- 945
Fig. 3. Spatial patterns of sunshine hour trends over 42 meteoro-
fields (Wild, 2012a; Wild et al., 2012). 946 Fig. 3. Spatial
logical patterns
stations of sunshine
across Chinahourfor
trends over 42 meteorological
1955–1989 (a) and stations across China
1990–2011 (b)
947 for 1955–1989
(Wang et al.,(A)2013).
and 1990–2011 (B) (Wang et al., 2013).
2.3 Dimming and brightening in sunshine hours

Further examining the annual trend in SH, a reversal
Given that surface measurements of SSR are limited in from dimming to brightening is noted in the mid-1990s by
time and space, SH, a surrogate for SSR, is often used be- Ren et al. (2005), Zhao et al. (2010) and Yu et al. (2011)
cause of its wider spatial distribution and longer temporal corresponding to changes in the trends of DiSR and SSR.
trends (Xia, 2010b). SH, the total amount of time when the Wang et al. (2013) observed that instead of increasing, the
Sun’s disk is above the horizon and not obscured by natu- SH trend in China’s big cites leveled off or marginally de-
rally occurring obstacles, provides an old but robust mea- clined by 0.02 h d−1 decade−1 since 1990, following a dras-
surement of radiation (Kaiser and Qian, 2002; Wild, 2009). tic decline by 0.28 h d−1 decade−1 in the period 1960–1989
Since 1951, SH is measured across China in 756 meteoro- (Fig. 2b). This observation is consistent with the “from dim-
logical stations (Fig. 1). In the measurement history of SH ming to leveling off” evidence of SSR in China advanced
in China, two kinds of instruments have been used. There by Tang et al. (2011), which was based on high quality
is the Jordan recorder used for the period prior to 1954 data (Fig. 2a). In the dimming phase of the 1960s–1980s,
and then the Campbell–Stokes sunshine recorder used af- SH declines across 90 % of China. The main exception to
ter 1954 (Tao et al., 1997). It is, however, important to note this trend is the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and northeast-
that only data from the Campbell–Stokes sunshine recorder ern China regions (Fig. 3a). SH declines the most in sum-
were used for the period of study; implying no change in mer (0.35 h d−1 decade−1 ) and winter (0.34 h d−1 decade−1 ),
instrument for measuring SH. The Campbell–Stokes sun- and the least in autumn (0.17 h d−1 decade−1 ) (Fig. 4).
shine recorder essentially consists of a glass sphere, set into In the leveling off phase of the 1990s–2000s, dimming 37
a bowl, with a sun-burning trace on the bowl. It measures only persists in one-half of the country, and brightening
SH to the nearest 0.1 h from DiSR with a sufficient intensity covers one-third of the country, especially in southeastern
(0.12 cal cm−2 min−1 ) to activate the recorder (Liang and China (Fig. 3b). China’s brightening mainly occurs in spring
Xia, 2005; Xia, 2010b; Ma et al., 2011). Thus, like DiSR, SH (0.27 h d−1 decade−1 ) (Fig. 4). This has been verified in the
is sensitive to and frequently perturbed by clouds and haze; studies of Wang et al. (2012, 2013) and Zhao et al. (2010).
especially when the atmospheric optical path is longer, such In addition, Wang et al. (2013) compared SH trends
as after sunrise and before sunset or in winter (Kaiser and between 42 cities and 42 surrounding counties across
Qian, 2002; Sanchez-Lorenzo et al., 2007). China and detected the dimming rate of SH at city scale
A significant declining trend in SH at widespread sites (0.20 h d−1 decade−1 ) is 0.06 h d−1 decade−1 higher than
across China during the last half century, especially in that at county scale (0.14 h d−1 decade−1 ) for the period
the 1980s, was first detected by Kaiser and Qian (2002). 1955–2011. A similar conclusion has been reached by Li et
This trend was gradually reconfirmed by Che et al. (2005), al. (2012) for southwestern China for the period 1961–2009.
Liang and Xia (2005), Cong et al. (2009), Zhao et These results are consistent with that from a global-scale
al. (2009), Xia (2010b), Yin et al. (2010) and Wang et analysis of annual SSR variations by Alpert et al. (2005),
al. (2012). The decline in SH covers most of China and which shows a decline in SH of 0.41 W m−2 yr−1 for highly
is mainly prevalent in regions around northern China, populated sites and only of 0.16 W m−2 yr−1 for sparsely
southeastern China and the Yangtze River delta (Ren et populated sites (< 0.1 million).
al., 2005; Zhao et al., 2010; Yu et al., 2011; Wang et
al., 2012). For the period 1960–2011, the strongest dim-
ming is in summer (0.32 h d−1 decade−1 ), followed by win-
ter (0.23 h d−1 decade−1 ), autumn (0.16 h d−1 decade−1 ) and
spring (0.11 h d−1 decade−1 ) (Fig. 4). Similar conclusions
have been drawn by Xia (2010b), Zhao et al. (2010) and Yu
et al. (2011).

7.0 enhanced aerosol concentrations throughout the troposphere

Spring and lower stratosphere, could have caused the decrease in
6.6
0.027*±0.010
6.2
−0.011*±0.003 SSR and SH in China (Ren et al., 2005; Xia, 2010b; Zhao
et al., 2010; Ma et al., 2011). Negative correlations between
5.8
−0.027*±0.006
LCC and SSR/SH are noted in different parts and even en-
5.4
tirely across China in recent decades (Table 3). Furthermore,
5.0
8.0
some observations, such as more frequent and stronger dim-
Summer ming in cloud-free skies (Qian et al., 2006, 2007) and urban
7.5 −0.032*±0.002
regions (Li et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2013), lend credence
7.0
to the explanation for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. By
6.5
Sunshine hours (h d –1)
−0.035*±0.005 comparing annual trends in SH and TCC between 42 cities

6.0
−0.023*±0.010 and 42 nearby counties, Wang et al. (2013) noted a widen-
5.5 ing gap between SH trends since 1978 while TCC remained
7.0
Autumn fairly unchanged. This finding further confirmed that changes
6.6
in SH in China are not driven by regional-based TCC.
6.2 −0.016*±0.003
In contrast, proponents assert that half of the decadal SSR
5.8 variability after 1990 should be attributed to changes in TCC
−0.017*±0.008
5.4 (Norris and Wild, 2009; Xia, 2010a; Wang et al., 2011). Fur-
−0.018*±0.008
5.0 thermore, the effect of clouds on SSR and SH is significant
7.0 in specific regions. Xia (2010a) asserted that despite the neg-
Winter
6.3 ligible effect of TCC to the trend in SSR over the whole of
5.6 China, TCC to some extent changes in response to dimming
−0.023*±0.004
0.008±0.012
4.9 in northwestern and southeastern China. Tang et al. (2011)
4.2
and Yang et al. (2012a) confirmed that the importance of
−0.034*±0.010
cloud effect to changes in solar radiation over the Tibetan
3.5
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Plateau could be comparable to that of aerosol effect. In Ta-
Year
ble 3, a significant negative correlation exists between radi-
948 ation and cloud cover in different regions of southern China
Fig. 4. Time series of seasonally averaged daily sunshine hours of
949 Fig.42 citesseries
4. Time across China for
of seasonally the period
averaged 1960–2011.
daily sunshine Black
hours of 42 solid China
cites across line, for (Wang et al., 2010; Li et al., 2011; Zheng et al., 2011; Li et
950 blue and
1960−2011. redsolid
Black dashline,lines respectively
blue and denote
red dash lines lineardenote
respectively trend fortrend
linear the for al., 2012). Actually, clouds significantly impact radiation at
951 periods1960−1989
1960−2011, 1960–2011, 1960–1989
(dimming phase) and (dimming phase) and
1990−2011 (brightening 1990–2011
phase). Values denote daily to inter-annual timescales (Norris and Wild, 2009; Xia,
952 (brightening
trend phase). Values
slopes and corresponding denote
standard trend
errors, and slopes and corresponding
* is significant trend at the 95% 2010a, b). To completely characterize the effects of clouds
953
standard errors, and ∗ is significant trend at the 95 % confidence
confidence level. on radiation requires a full understanding of the amount, type
level. (low, middle and high) and physical and radiative properties
38
(shape, size and optical thickness) of clouds (Liang and Xia,
2005; Qian et al., 2006; Xia, 2010b).
3 Causes of dimming and brightening in China
3.2 Aerosol radiative forcing
3.1 Cloud radiative forcing
Aerosols are defined as solid or liquid particles suspended
By reflecting incoming solar radiation back into space, in the atmosphere with a diameter range of 0.001–100 µm.
clouds have been identified as a major modulator of SSR Atmospheric aerosols are basically of natural and anthro-
(Dessler, 2010). SSR and clouds show opposite trends, im- pogenic origin and composite mixtures of core refractory
plying that increasing clouds result in decreasing SSR and materials such as black carbon (BC, from fossil fuel com-
vice versa (Wang et al., 2011). In general, there are two op- bustion and biomass burning), dust (from surface winds in
posing views on the contribution of clouds to the variations arid/semiarid regions) and sea salt (from bursting bubbles
in SSR and SH in China. over the sea) along with coatings of organics (from biomass
Opponents believe that clouds could not be the dominant burning), sulfates (from anthropogenic activities) and ni-
driving factor of dimming and brightening in China as the trates (from anthropogenic activities) (Ramanathan et al.,
total cloud cover (TCC) trend is very similar to the SSR 2001; Satheesh, 2012). As one of the largest developing
trend (Liang and Xia, 2005; Xia et al., 2006; Yang et al., countries in the world, rapid economic growth and popu-
2007; Shen et al., 2008). In Table 3, a positive correlation lation expansion in China have triggered increasing emis-
(with coefficient of 0.23) is noted between SH and TCC over sions of anthropogenic aerosols and the related precursors
the whole of China for the period 1955–2005 (Xia, 2012b). (Qian et al., 2006; Xia et al., 2007c). In principle, aerosols
Slight increase in low cloud cover (LCC), which is linked to modify solar radiation through direct and indirect radiative

Table 3. Correlation coefficients between radiative (SSR, surface solar radiation; SH, sunshine hours) and meteorological (TCC, total cloud
cover; LCC, low cloud cover; WS, wind speed; VAP, water vapor pressure; RH, relative humidity; P , precipitation; Epan , pan evaporation)
variables.
Number
Reference Study area of sites Period TCC LCC WS VAP RH P Epan
SSR Qian et al. (2006) Whole China 85 1955–2000 0.57c
Xu et al. (2006) Whole China 305 1969–2000 0.714b
Wang et al. (2010) Southeastern China 85 1961–2008 −0.488b −0.727b
Zheng et al. (2011) Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau 8 1961–2005 −0.880b 0.237a −0.526b
SH Ren and Guo (2006) Whole China 600 1956–2000 0.75b
Du et al. (2007) Tibet 25 1971–2005 −0.052c −0.373c −0.749c −0.522c
Shen and Sheng (2008) Whole China 472 1957–2001 0.61b
Cong et al. (2009) Whole China 317 1956–2005 0.75a
Yang et al. (2009a) Northern China 81 1965–1999 0.66b –0.64b –0.48b
Xia (2010b) Whole China 618 1955–2005 0.23 −0.52a
You et al. (2010) Eastern and central Tibetan Plateau 71 1961–2005 −0.07 −0.76a −0.65 −0.61a −0.51a
Li et al. (2011) Low-altitude belt of southern China 147 1961–2005 −0.47b −0.90b
Yu et al. (2011) Whole China 194 1951–2009 0.76b −0.27a
Li et al. (2012) Southwestern China 111 1961–2009 −0.34a 0.58a −0.32a −0.29a
Yang et al. (2012b) Southwestern China 110 1969–2009 0.46a
a p < 0.05, b p < 0.01, c not given.
forcings (Charlson et al., 1992; Ramanathan et al., 2001). site (70 km southeast of Beijing), Li et al. (2007b) de-
Direct radiative forcing refers to the scattering (primarily tected that high aerosol loading resulted in a very large
by sulfate, nitrate, and organic carbon aerosols) and/or ab- aerosol radiative effect at the surface (the annual mean value
sorption (primarily by BC aerosols) of solar radiation by the equals −24.1 W m−2 ) from September 2004 to Septem-
nature of aerosol composition (IPCC, 2007; Myhre, 2009; ber 2005; only moderately lower than the cloud radiative
Dwyer et al., 2010; Satheesh, 2012). Indirect radiative forc- effect (−41.0 W m−2 ). At the Taihu site (100 km west of
ing is caused by aerosols acting as cloud condensation nuclei Shanghai), Xia et al. (2007b) noted that heavy aerosol load-
(CNN) and ice nuclei, which in turn influence cloud radiative ing resulted in −45.5 W m−2 and −112.6 W m−2 reductions
properties and lifetimes (Charlson et al., 1992; Ramanathan in SSR and DiSR while 67.1 W m−2 more DfSR reached
et al., 2001; IPCC, 2007). All the aerosol radiative forcings Earth’s surface from September 2005 to August 2006. The
act towards reducing SSR and SH. Moreover, aerosols could annual mean aerosol direct radiative forcing at the surface
have semi-direct radiative forcing by inhibiting cloud forma- amounted to −38.4 W m−2 . At the Liaozhong site, a subur-
tion or dissolving existing clouds as absorbing aerosols in ban region in northeastern China, Xia et al. (2007a) estimated
heavily polluted regions could heat up and stabilize the atmo- that aerosols reduced SSR by 30 W m−2 day−1 from April to
sphere (Wild, 2009). This could partially counteract aerosol- June 2005.
induced dimming in heavily polluted areas for reduced cloud Aerosol optical depth (AOD) and air pollution index (API)
shading (Wild, 2012a). are the two widely used proxies for aerosols in air quality
Aerosol radiative forcings over the inland areas of China studies (Neha, 2000; He et al., 2002; Li et al., 2003, 2005;
were not quantified until the mid-2000s, when the East Pour-Biazar et al., 2011). AOD (also known as AOT, aerosol
Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: An International Re- optical thickness) measures wavelength-dependent aerosol
gional Experiment (EAST-AIRE) commenced as a USA– extinction in the atmospheric column via remote sensing
China cooperative research endeavor (Li et al., 2007a). It (Bellouin et al., 2005). API is the generalized way of describ-
consists of two baseline observatories established at Xi- ing air quality in China, which is based on 24 h ground-based
anghe and Taihu, a nationwide aerosol observation net- monitoring of mass concentration of three principal air pollu-
work covering 25 stations across China, and two consecu- tants – SO2 , NO2 , and PM10 . API measurements started with
tive IOCs (intensive observation campaigns) conducted in a few stations in 2000 and since then has gradually expanded
the spring of 2005. This was done in March on the ground to 120 environmental monitoring stations, mainly in major
in Xianghe and in April from both aircraft and ground in cities of China (Fig. 1). These data are now available at the
Liaozhong. The EAST-AIRE study primarily aims to ac- China National Environmental Monitoring Center (CNEMC,
quire optical, physical and chemical properties of aerosols http://www.cnemc.cn/), which is managed by the State Envi-
and to understand climatic and environmental effects of the ronmental Protection Bureau (SEPB). Based on the Ambient
aerosol properties. Quantification of aerosol radiative forc- Air Quality Standards, eco-environmental effects of various
ings has therefore been enabled by the simultaneous high- pollutants and their health implications, the API scale (0–
quality observations of aerosol, cloud and radiative quan- 500) corresponds to seven air pollution levels – I (excellent,
tities made in the EAST-AIRE stations. At the Xianghe 0–50), II (good, 51–100), III(1) (slight pollution, 101–150),

al. (2012a) for PM2.5 concentration, which better determines

AOD than PM10 . Due, however, to the complexity of the
composition and mixing of aerosols and the subsequent scat-
tering/absorption of SSR (Qian et al., 2006, 2007), a simple
correlation could hardly be established between API and SH
at an annual scale. Using TOMS AOD products (1980–2001)
along with MODIS/Terra AOD data (2000–2008), Guo et
al. (2011) noted a continuous upward trend in average AOD
(550 nm) over eight typical regions across China without any
transition in 1990. This is contrary to recent brightening or
leveling off trends in SSR and SH. Nevertheless, earlier de-
clines in carbonaceous aerosol emissions than in sulfur diox-
ide emissions reported over East Asia imply changing pat-
terns in anthropogenic emissions (Streets et al., 2006, 2008).
Increasing aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA, which is
the ratio of scattering to extinction) could result in less ab-
sorption and thus more radiation reaching Earth’s surface
(Qian et al., 2007). Aerosols not only change the amount of
954
SSR but also alter the partitioning between direct and diffuse
955 Fig. 5. Spatial distribution of average daily API over 42 cities across components of SSR for distinct chemical compounds (Xia et
956 China for the
Fig. 5. Spatial periodof2001–2011.
distribution average daily API (Air Pollution Index) over 42 cities across al., 2007c).
957 China for 2001–2011. Except for human activities, volcanic eruptions such
as in El Chichon (1982) and the Philippine’s Mount
III(2) (light pollution, 151–200), IV(1) (moderate pollution, Pinatubo (1991) also strongly perturb the Earth–atmosphere
201–250), IV(2) (heavy pollution, 251–300), and V (severe system (Qiu and Yang, 2000; Wild, 2009). In the broad north-
pollution, 300+). Wang et al. (2012) have proved the value west of China and in the months from March to May, dust
of API as a separate indicator in studying the influence of air storms significantly impact solar radiation (X. Wang et al.,
pollution on SH. In Fig. 5, a boundary line (30◦ N) is drawn 2004; Shen et al., 2011).
for air quality conditions in China. To the north of the line
where solar dimming continues after 1990, average API in 3.3 Wind speed
the 2000s is generally greater than 70. To the south of the line
39
where brightening occurs air quality is relatively good. Wang It is worth noting that in spite of the two principal driving
et al. (2012) verified that in cities with average API > 80, the factors (cloud and aerosol), wind also significantly influences
SH decline for the 1960s–2000s is 0.2 h d−1 (2.5 %) stronger SSR and SH. Xu et al. (2006) detected that annual mean wind
than in cities with average daily API ≤ 80. Ground observed speed and surface incoming solar radiation share similar
API and remotely sensed AOD are noted to be strongly cor- decadal trends in China. A significantly positive correlation
related after correction for aerosol seasonal vertical distri- between SSR and WS was also noted by Zheng et al. (2011)
bution and real-time relative humidity (Li et al., 2003; He in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau. Among various meteoro-
et al., 2010). The correlation coefficient between AOD and logical parameters, wind speed is most closely correlated
API could improve to 0.54 at 99 % confidence level (Li et with SH in northern China (Yang et al., 2009a), southwest-
al., 2005). ern China (Li et al., 2012; Yang et al., 2012b) and the whole
Figure 2d shows a sharp increase in AOD (simulated using of China (Yu et al., 2011). Corresponding coefficients of the
the GOCART model) over China in the 1980s (Streets et al., observed correlations between SSR/SH and WS are shown
2008), the decade with the strongest decline in SSR and SH in Table 3. Winds could disperse and alter the frequency and
during the last half century. An increase in AOD is especially distribution of air pollutants and aerosol derivatives, thereby
notable in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and indirectly influencing SH and SSR (Lu and Fang, 2002; Xu et
the southern coastal areas (Luo et al., 2000, 2001, 2002; Lu al., 2006; Yang et al., 2009b; Li et al., 2012). In Fig. 5, cities
and Fang, 2002), where strong dimming is prevalent. AOD with relatively good air quality are mainly distributed in the
increases to a peak value of 0.305 in 1996 and declines there- high monsoon wind regions, especially in the tropical and
after (Fig. 2d), corresponding to the transition from dimming subtropical monsoon climate zone (southeastern China). For
to brightening in SSR and SH trends. Following that is an al- the past 50 yr, mean annual wind speed significantly declines
most linear decline in average API in the period 2001–2011 at the rate of 0.1 m s−1 decade−1 in China. This is attributed
(Fig. 2d), especially in spring (Wang et al., 2013), which is to the weakening East Asian monsoon and windbreak effect
consistent with annual and seasonal brightening trends. Simi- of the high-rise buildings, which are quickly constructed in
lar observations were made by Lei et al. (2011a) and Wang et China’s urbanization boom (Z. Wang et al., 2004; Ren et al.,

2005; Zuo et al., 2005; Xu et al., 2006; Cong et al., 2009; spinning up the hydrological cycle (Ramanathan et al., 2001;
Liu et al., 2009; Yin et al., 2010). Wind deceleration could Wild, 2009, 2012a, b).
enhance aerosol concentration in the atmosphere, which in
turn dims SSR and SH in China (Zhao et al., 2010; Yang and 4.2 Implications for pan evaporation
Yang, 2012).
Pan evaporation (Epan ), the most widely used proxy for po-
3.4 Other potential driving factors tential evaporation, measures evaporation in a standard open
pan of water (Wild, 2009). Basically, the potential factors
Other variables also exert non-negligible influences on SSR that influence Epan can be divided into three category terms:
and SH. Despite air pollution, change in surface albedo, thermodynamic term (temperature, sunshine hours and diur-
which is also associated with urbanization, has a negative nal temperature range), aerodynamic term (wind speed and
radiative forcing. Human activities are altering the nature of pressure) and hydrodynamic term (relative humidity, precip-
land cover, especially through changes in croplands, pastures itation and low cloud cover) (Liu et al., 2009; Shen et al.,
and forests, resulting in more reflection of solar radiation 2010). Peterson et al. (1995) attributed the general decline
from Earth’s surface (IPCC, 2007). So far, however, large un- in Epan in the United States and the former Soviet Union
certainties remain in the contributions of changes in surface for the period 1950–1990 to increasing cloudiness. In sub-
albedo to China’s dimming and brightening. sequent studies, Brutsaert and Parlange (1998) proposed that
Water vapor is a strong absorber of solar radiation; i.e., a the observed decline in Epan , which indicated increasing ter-
10 % increase in water vapor attenuates solar radiation by up restrial evaporation, should not be a paradox. Ohumura and
to 0.5 % (Wild, 2009). Wang et al. (2011) showed that SSR Wild (2002) argued that the direction of the Epan trend is not
negatively correlates with near-surface water vapor in most determined by temperature alone. Rayner (2007) identified
regions of China, especially in relatively dry high-latitude wind run (i.e., daily average wind speed) as the dominant fac-
regions. For instance, in the Tibetan Plateau, a higher cor- tor of Epan trends in Australia. Roderick and Farquhar (2002)
relation was noted by Du et al. (2007) and You et al. (2010) theorized the resolution of the pan evaporation paradox by
between SH and water vapor pressure than with other me- explaining how a downward Epan trend could be driven by
teorological variables (Table 3). This suggests that the ef- global dimming. The fact that SSR and Epan trends in China
fect of water vapor on solar radiation largely depends on the have a similar transition in 1990 (Liu et al., 2004; Qian et
background level of water vapor content. Similar variables al., 2006) is further evidence that solar radiation dominantly
with different measurements are relative humidity and pre- controls the recent Epan trend.
cipitation. The interaction of relative humidity and aerosols Figure 2c shows a significant decline in Epan by
influences the development of cloudy conditions (Wang et 54 mm decade−1 in China’s dimming phase (Liu et al.,
al., 2012). Precipitation could wash out aerosols and reduce 2011a), suggesting that solar dimming offsets the effect of
the amount of clouds, which in turn mitigate the effect of increasing air temperature on Epan . The decline in Epan is
aerosols and clouds on SSR and SH (Ramanathan et al., strongest in summer (Ren and Guo, 2006; Liu et al., 2009;
2001). Table 3 shows that relative humidity and precipita- Shen and Sheng, 2009) and in regions around southeastern
tion have a significant negative correlation with SSR/SH in China and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River
various regions of China (Yu et al., 2011; Zheng et al., 2011; (Yan et al., 2007; Shen and Sheng, 2008; Liu et al., 2009).
Yang et al., 2012b), especially in the Tibetan Plateau (Du et This corresponds with seasonal and spatial trends in dim-
al., 2007; You et al., 2010) and northern China (Yang et al., ming of SSR and SH. The mean annual Epan in China has
2009a). significantly increased by 79 mm decade−1 since 1992 (Liu
et al., 2011a), consistent with the recovery of solar radiation
4 Hydrological implications of dimming and in the country (Fig. 2). For the period since the mid-1950s,
brightening in China the Epan trend is significantly and positively correlated with
the SSR/SH trend in China (Table 3), with an estimated co-
4.1 Link between radiation balance and efficient ≥ 0.57 (Qian et al., 2006; Ren and Guo, 2006; Shen
hydrological cycle and Sheng, 2008; Cong et al., 2009).
According to Cong et al. (2009, 2010), Epan increases in
Since the process of evaporation requires energy (e.g., latent the north while continues to decrease in the south after 1986;
heat), solar radiation is the principal driver of the global hy- in discordance with the spatial pattern of solar brightening.
drological cycle (Wild and Liepert, 2010). Decreasing SSR This suggests that other factors other than solar radiation also
(i.e., global dimming) could attenuate latent heat of evapo- influence Epan . Cong et al. (2009) and Liu et al. (2011a) reck-
ration and the equivalent global precipitation, thereby spin- oned that increasing Epan since the 1990s is caused by de-
ning down the hydrological cycle. On the other hand, increas- creasing vapor pressure deficit due to strong warming. Wa-
ing SSR (i.e., global brightening) could induce stronger later conditions in different climatic regions and seasons influ-
tent heat of evaporation and more frequent rainfall, thereby ence the sensitivity of Epan to changes in solar radiation (Liu

et al., 2004). Besides this, wind speed is widely regarded and brightening in this region is still under debate. You et
as another important driving factor of the pan evaporation al. (2013) suggested that aerosol is the determinant factor of
paradox in China (Ren et al., 2005; Ren and Guo, 2006; SSR in the Tibetan Plateau. This view is supported by the fact
Cong et al., 2009; Liu et al., 2011a). Shen and Sheng (2008, that aerosol loading is impacted by the long-range transporta-
2009) asserted that thermodynamic and aerodynamic terms tion of anthropogenic aerosols from southern Asia (Xia et al.,
respectively dominate the drop of Epan in eastern and west- 2011) and dust aerosols from the Taklimakan Desert (Xia et
ern China. al., 2008) to the region. However, Yang et al. (2012a) argued
that under low water vapor content and aerosol concentration
in the plateau, water vapor amount and deep cloud cover be-
5 Key regions come the dominant driving factors of SSR. In fact, water va-
por has been verified as a critical regulator of SSR in regions
Southeastern China is the region with the most obvious at high latitudes with dry atmosphere, such as in northeast-
dimming and brightening for the periods 1960s–1980s and ern and northwestern China (Wang et al., 2011). The water
1990s–2000s, respectively (Ohmura, 2006; Xia, 2010a; Wild deficit in northwestern China also increases the sensitivity
and Schmucki, 2011; Wang et al., 2012). The prevailing of Epan to change in SSR, thus the rate of decrease in Epan
climate in the region is tropical and subtropical monsoon is highest in the region (Liu et al., 2004). The pan evapora-
with frequent cloud events, heavy rainfall and strong sun- tion paradox does not exist in northeastern China, because
shine. Since the implementation of the reform and opening- Epan increases with the increasingly warmer climate (Cong
up policy in 1978, this region has experienced fast economic et al., 2009). The dominant climatic factor of the decreasing
growth that has in turn led to a drastic increase in AOD Epan trend in the Tibetan Plateau for the period 1970–2005 is
(Luo et al., 2000, 2001, 2002; Lu and Fang, 2002). Li et wind speed, followed by vapor pressure and SSR (Liu et al.,
al. (2011) showed that increased aerosol loading due to rapid 2011b).
socio-economic development is the driving force behind the
sharp dimming in this region. The latter brightening trend
might be in response to improved air quality. As illustrated 6 Discussions and suggestions for future research
in Fig. 5, the average API level in southeastern China is gen-
erally lower than 70 for the 2000s. Aerosol-linked LCC has It is undisputed that since the 1950s, solar radiation over
been identified as the primary meteorological regulator of China suffers a temporally and spatially prevalent decreas-
SSR and SH in this region (Wang et al., 2010; Li et al., 2011). ing trend. However, the magnitude of China’s dimming esti-
The strongest dimming rate in southeastern China, however, mated in recent studies differs greatly (Che et al., 2005; Shi
was not in phase with the highest Epan decrease in the period et al., 2008; Norris and Wild, 2009; Ohmura, 2009; Wang et
1955–2000. This suggests that plentiful water conditions real., 2009; Tang et al., 2011; Wild, 2012a). There is no concor-
duced the sensitivity of Epan to change with SSR (Liu et al., dance in conclusions on the seasonal dimming trends in SSR
2004). (Shi et al., 2008; Wang et al., 2009; Xia, 2010a) and DiSR
Continued dimming since 1990 is prevalent in northern (Zhao et al., 2009; Ma et al., 2011). By contrast, results of
China (Ohmura, 2006; Yang et al., 2007; Xia, 2010a; Wang et estimated SH trends are largely in agreement (Xia, 2010b;
al., 2011, 2013). This region is dominated by the East Asian Zhao et al., 2010; Yu et al., 2011). The uncertainties in solar
monsoon climate of hot, humid, low-latitude western Pacific radiation studies highlight the importance of data quality as-
winds in summer, and cold, dry Siberian winds in winter. In- sessment and control, as erroneous and suspected data could
creased aerosol emissions driven by air pollution have been lead to unreliable and spurious trends. Distinct data sets with
identified by Yang et al. (2009b) as the cause of dimming in varied spatial coverage and timescales could also influence
this region. In Fig. 5, a relatively high level of API could be the consistency of results. In addition, more accurate, higher-
noted. Through interaction with aerosol loading, wind speed order statistical models rather than current linear regressions
exerts the strongest influence on SH in northern China (Yang are needed in trend analysis (Wild, 2009). There is an over-
et al., 2009a). Wind speed, rather than SSR, is also the dom- whelming scientific consensus that increasing anthropogenic
inant factor for decreasing Epan in this region from 1960 to aerosol loading is the most plausible explanation for China’s
the early 1990s (Liu et al., 2011a). A significant wind ef- dimming (Kaiser and Qian, 2002; Che et al., 2005; Qian et
fect is also observed in southwestern China (Li et al., 2012; al., 2006, 2007; Wen et al., 2008; Xia, 2010b). This is further
Yang et al., 2012b), which is a typical monsoonal climate confirmed by the decreasing trend in TCC (Liang and Xia,
region dominated by both the South and East Asian mon- 2005; Xia et al., 2006; Yang et al., 2007; Shen et al., 2008),
soon winds. The pan evaporation paradox is not existent in although cloud changes to some extent account for the dim-
southwestern China, as Epan decreases with decreasing air ming in the Tibetan Plateau (Tang et al., 2011; Yang et al.,
temperature (Cong et al., 2009). 2012a), northwestern China (Xia, 2010a) and most of south-
The smallest mean AOD in China is for the Tibetan ern China (Wang et al., 2010; Li et al., 2011; Zheng et al.,
Plateau region (Xin et al., 2007). Aerosol effect on dimming 2011; Li et al., 2012) (Table 3). A higher dimming rate in

urban regions than in rural regions also reflects the attenua- arid/semi-arid regions of China where the atmosphere is rel-
tion effect of urbanization-induced air pollution on sunlight atively dry, the weakening function of water vapor (rela-
(Li et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2013). So far, proof of aerosol as tive humidity/precipitation) on sunlight is evident (Du et al.,
the prime regulator of China’s dimming largely depends on 2007; You et al., 2010; Wang et al., 2011) (Table 3). In ar-
simple trend comparisons and is insufficient from physical eas with sustained and intensive human activities, radiative
mechanisms. forcing of surface albedo needs consideration.
The solar radiation trend after 1990, however, largely re- Research on hydrological implications of dimming and
mains debatable in China. The latest updates presented that brightening in China is only in its infancy. Despite evapo-
the recent trend in SSR (Tang et al., 2011) and SH (Wang ration, the implications for other hydrological components
et al., 2013) levels off rather than brightening. At a global such as precipitation have seldom been studied in China.
scale, brightening mainly occurs in industrialized regions, Similar to the analyses of the causes of solar dimming and
accompanying a slowdown in anthropogenic emissions and brightening in China, hydrological implications tend to very
economic growth (Wild, 2009, 2012a). Similarly, there was much rely on trend comparisons rather than critical interpre-
improvement of air quality in China in the early 21st cen- tations of physical mechanisms. The main scientific process
tury (Chen et al., 2010; Shaw et al., 2010; Lei et al., 2011b; is that, similar to the solar radiation trend, the Epan trend in
Wang et al., 2012, 2013). In fact, a tremendous effort is ap- China reverses from decreasing to increasing in 1990 (Liu
plied to sustain economic development and intensive envi- et al., 2004; Qian et al., 2006). This evidence further con-
ronmental protection since the start of China’s environmental firms the claim that the pan evaporation paradox could be
protection in the 1970s. Such effort is especially commend- resolved by solar dimming (Roderick and Farquhar, 2002).
able after the 1992 act of sustainable development as a stan- Comparing the dimming phases in Fig. 2a and c, a de-
dard national strategy (Zhang and Wen, 2008). As one of the cline of 2.5 W m−2 decade−1 in SSR is accompanied by a
largest developing countries, China is still in the period of 54 mm decade−1 decline in pan evaporation. For the bright-
rapid economic growth and population expansion. The pos- ening phase, an increase of 0.4 W m−2 decade−1 in SSR is
sibility for renewed dimming cannot be excluded and has accompanied by 79 mm decade−1 increase in pan evapora-
already been discussed in studies of Che et al. (2005) and tion. This suggests that to some extent, solar dimming, but
Wild et al. (2009). It can then be predicted that the future also decreasing wind speed, offsets the effect of warming
solar radiation trend in China could largely depend on the climate on evaporation. This in turn results in a decline in
development of air quality control. On the other hand, the pan evaporation. On the contrast, strong warming with a
possible influence of climate-driven TCC suppression on so- slight increase in solar radiation leads to a more significant
lar recovery after 1990 is non-negligible (Norris and Wild, recovery in pan evaporation for the brightening phase (Liu
2009; Xia, 2010a; Wang et al., 2011). The reversal in SSR et al., 2011a; Wild, 2012a). Assuming that solar dimming
and SH trends could be associated with natural and anthro- and brightening in China are largely driven by anthropogenic
pogenic factors. Being that other radiation factors such as aerosols with possible effects on pan evaporation, hydrolog-
DiSR, DfSR and photosynthetically active radiation (RAR) ical observations and simulations of evaporation could be
are noted to have different environmental implications (Che skewed by air pollution. This aspect of pollution-driven hy-
et al., 2005; Pinker et al., 2005; Zhu et al., 2010), there is a drological processes requires intensive scientific studies for
need for systematic studies on these SSR components. a conclusive clarification. More scientific works are required
Although wind hardly actually changes emission trends to unveil the hydrological implications of solar dimming and
and pollutant sources, the transport of air pollutants is pre- brightening in China.
dominantly controlled by wind speed. In other words, winds
partially determine the residence time, distribution pattern
and pollutant/aerosol concentration in the atmosphere. So far, Acknowledgements. This study is funded by the International Col-
there is no conclusive evidence on the effect of wind speed laborative Project (2012DFG90290) of the Ministry of Science and
Technology and the Basic Research Development Program of China
on SSR and SH under varying air pollution levels. Wind ac-
(2010CB951002). The meteorological and solar radiation data are
celeration could lead to dispersion of aerosols in the source provided by China National Meteorological Information Center
regions, but accumulation of aerosols in the downwind re- (CNMIC). API data are from China National Environmental Mon-
gions. Furthermore, increasing wind speed in the desert and itoring Center (CNEMC). The authors are thankful to Prof. Paolo
Gobi regions could result in more dust aerosols emitted into Michele Ruti and two anonymous reviewers for the invaluable sug-
the atmosphere, which in turn attenuates sunlight. This calls gestions and comments during the review phase of this paper.
for further research on wind speed as a critical driving factor Topical Editor P. M. Ruti thanks X. Xia and one anonymous
of solar radiation to help better understand the cause–effect referee for their help in evaluating this paper.
relationship between air pollution and solar dimming.
The effects of other potential driving factors (water va-
por and surface albedo) on SSR and SH are also non-
negligible in specific conditions. For instance, in western

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Ann. Geophys., 32, 41–55, 2014

China’s dimming and brightening: evidence, causes and

Correspondence to: Y. H. Yang ([email protected])

Abstract. There is growing evidence that, corresponding to 1 Introduction

Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

Ann. Geophys., 32, 41–55, 2014 www.ann-geophys.net/32/41/2014/

Table 1. Magnitudes of trends in surface solar radiation (W m−2

Wang et al., 2011; Wild and Schmucki, 2011). In the west-

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al. (2009) noted that the decline in DiSR is strongest in

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The reversal in SSR from dimming to brightening could

2.3 Dimming and brightening in sunshine hours

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7.0 enhanced aerosol concentrations throughout the troposphere

−0.035*±0.005 comparing annual trends in SH and TCC between 42 cities

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al. (2012a) for PM2.5 concentration, which better determines

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References Hoyt, D. V. and Schatten, K. H.: A discussion of plausible solar

Ann. Geophys., 32, 41–55, 2014 www.ann-geophys.net/32/41/2014/

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Ann. Geophys., 32, 41–55, 2014 www.ann-geophys.net/32/41/2014/

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